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INTRODUCTION: Formulating reliable prognosis for ischemic stroke patients remains a challenging task. We aimed to develop an artificial intelligence model able to formulate in the first 24 h after stroke an individualized prognosis in terms of NIHSS. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Seven hundred ninety four acute ischemic stroke patients were divided into a training (597) and testing (197) cohort. Clinical and instrumental data were collected in the first 24 h. We evaluated the performance of four machine-learning models (Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machine, XGBoost) in predicting NIHSS at discharge both in terms of variation between discharge and admission (regressor approach) and in terms of severity class namely NIHSS 0-5, 6-10, 11-20, >20 (classifier approach). We used Shapley Additive exPlanations values to weight features impact on predictions. RESULTS: XGBoost emerged as the best performing model. The classifier and regressor approaches perform similarly in terms of accuracy (80% vs 75%) and f1-score (79% vs 77%) respectively. However, the regressor has higher precision (85% vs 68%) in predicting prognosis of very severe stroke patients (NIHSS > 20). NIHSS at admission and 24 hours, GCS at 24 hours, heart rate, acute ischemic lesion on CT-scan and TICI score were the most impacting features on the prediction. DISCUSSION: Our approach, which employs an artificial intelligence based-tool, inherently able to continuously learn and improve its performance, could improve care pathway and support stroke physicians in the communication with patients and caregivers. CONCLUSION: XGBoost reliably predicts individualized outcome in terms of NIHSS at discharge in the first 24 hours after stroke.
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OBJECTIVES: The European Biological Variation Study (EuBIVAS), which includes 91 healthy volunteers from five European countries, estimated high-quality biological variation (BV) data for several measurands. Previous EuBIVAS papers reported no significant differences among laboratories/population; however, they were focused on specific set of measurands, without a comprehensive general look. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the homogeneity of EuBIVAS data considering multivariate information applying the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), a machine learning unsupervised algorithm. METHODS: The EuBIVAS data for 13 basic metabolic panel linked measurands (glucose, albumin, total protein, electrolytes, urea, total bilirubin, creatinine, phosphatase alkaline, aminotransferases), age, sex, menopause, body mass index (BMI), country, alcohol, smoking habits, and physical activity, have been used to generate three databases developed using the traditional univariate and the multivariate Elliptic Envelope approaches to detect outliers, and different missing-value imputations. Two matrix of data for each database, reporting both mean values, and "within-person BV" (CVP) values for any measurand/subject, were analyzed using PCA. RESULTS: A clear clustering between males and females mean values has been identified, where the menopausal females are closer to the males. Data interpretations for the three databases are similar. No significant differences for both mean and CVPs values, for countries, alcohol, smoking habits, BMI and physical activity, have been found. CONCLUSIONS: The absence of meaningful differences among countries confirms the EuBIVAS sample homogeneity and that the obtained data are widely applicable to deliver APS. Our data suggest that the use of PCA and the multivariate approach may be used to detect outliers, although further studies are required.
