Development and external validation of a predictive multivariable model for last-weeks survival of advanced cancer patients in the palliative home care setting (PACS).

PURPOSE: Various prognostic indexes have been proposed to improve physicians' ability to predict survival time in advanced cancer patients, admitted to palliative care (PC) with a survival probably to a few weeks of life, but no optimal score has been identified. The study aims therefore to develop and externally validate a new multivariable predictive model in this setting. METHODS: We developed a model to predict short-term overall survival in cancer patients on the basis of clinical factors collected at PC admission. The model was developed on 1020 cancer patients prospectively enrolled to home palliative care at VIDAS Milan, Italy, between May 2018 and February 2020 and followed-up to June 2020, and validated in two separate samples of 544 home care and 247 hospice patients. RESULTS: Among 68 clinical factors considered, five predictors were included in the predictive model, i.e., rattle, heart rate, anorexia, liver failure, and the Karnofsky performance status. Patient's survival probability at 5, 15, 30 and 45 days was estimated. The predictive model showed a good calibration and moderate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between 0.72 and 0.79) in the home care validation set, but model calibration was suboptimal in hospice patients. CONCLUSIONS: The new multivariable predictive model for palliative cancer patients' survival (PACS model) includes clinical parameters routinely at patient's admission to PC and can be easily used to facilitate immediate and appropriate short-term clinical decisions for PC cancer patients in the home setting.

Early Diagnosis of Delirium in Palliative Care Patients Decreases Mortality and Necessity of Palliative Sedation: Results of a Prospective Observational Study.

INTRODUCTION: Delirium in end-of-life patients is reported to be between 13% and 42% and up to 80% in the terminal phase. It is a serious clinical situation, often a cause of death due to the frequent ineffectiveness of treatments. This study aimed to assess whether and how much precocity of diagnosis, hitherto little considered, could affect the outcomes and prognosis of delirium in palliative care settings. METHODS: Patients consecutively admitted to a palliative care unit (PCU) between October 2018 and December 2019, cared for both in hospice and home programs, were analyzed. All patients were subjected to a careful procedure aimed at recognizing the onset of delirium. The first step was the detection of prodromal "sentinel" symptoms related to incoming delirium. PCU staff and family members/caregivers were trained to observe the patients and immediately identify the appearance of even one symptom. The final diagnosis was performed with the 4AT (4 A's test). Patients were then included in the categories of "early" or "slow" diagnosis (cut-off: four hours) depending on the time between sentinel symptom observation and the final diagnosis of delirium. RESULTS: Among 503 admitted patients, 95 developed delirium. Confusion was the most frequent sentinel symptom (49.5%). The early diagnosis was more frequent in hospice than in home care (p-value<0.0001). Delirium was positively resolved in 43 patients, of which 25 with an early diagnosis (p-value=0.038). Time to resolution was shorter in the case of early diagnosis (7.1 vs. 13.7 hours in hospice patients; p-value=0.018). Palliative sedation was performed on 25 patients, but only 8 of them had an early diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Time of diagnosis was important in determining the clinical outcomes of patients in charge of PCU who experienced delirium. The early diagnosis reduced both mortality and the necessity of palliative sedation.

Living systematic review to assess the analgesic undertreatment in cancer patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: This living and systematic review aimed to provide an updated summary of the available evidence on pain undertreatment prevalence in patients with cancer; correlations with some potential determinants and confounders were also carried out. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We updated a systematic review published on 2014, including observational and experimental studies reporting the use of the pain management index (PMI) in adults with cancer and pain, from 2014 to 2020. We conducted searches in PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, and Google Scholar. We performed univariate and multivariable regression analyses to describe the relationship between PMI and a list of potential explanatory variables. RESULTS: Twenty new papers were identified, yielding a total sample size of 66 studies. The proportion of patients classified as undertreated according to the year of study publication shows a higher decrease from 1994 to 2013 (-13% as relative change) than the most recent years 2014-2020 (-11%). The quality of the included studies has increased over the years (from 80% to 93%). At the multivariable analysis, a statistically significant relationship was confirmed between undertreatment and the year of the publication of the study and with a low-medium economic level of the countries, where the studies were conducted. DISCUSSION: Despite the improvement when compared to the period 1994-2000, still about 40% of the cases identified received an analgesic treatment inadequate to the intensity of pain, according to the PMI. Despite its intrinsic limitations, PMI continues to be widely used, and it could allow a continuous monitoring of pain management across a different mix of studies and patients.

Factors for Timely Identification of Possible Occurrence of Delirium in Palliative Care: A Prospective Observational Study.

Delirium occurs in 50-80% of end-of-life patients but is often misdiagnosed. Identification of clinical factors potentially associated with delirium onset can lead to a correct early diagnosis. To this aim, we conducted a prospective cohort study on patients from an Italian palliative care unit (PCU) admitted in 2018-2019. We evaluated the presence of several clinical factors at patient admission and compared their presence in patients who developed delirium and in those who did not develop it during follow-up. Among 503 enrolled patients, after a median follow-up time of 16 days (interquartile range 6-40 days), 95 (18.9%) developed delirium. Hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were computed using Cox proportional hazard models. In univariate analyses, factors significantly more frequent in patients with delirium were care in hospice, compromised performance status, kidney disease, fever, renal failure, hypoxia, dehydration, drowsiness, poor well-being, breathlessness, and "around the clock" therapy with psychoactive drugs, particularly haloperidol. In multivariate analyses, setting of care (HR 2.28 for hospice versus home care, 95% CI 1.45-3.60; p < 0.001), presence of breathlessness (HR 1.71, 95% CI 1.03-2.83, p = 0.037), and administration of psychoactive drugs, particularly haloperidol (HR 2.17 for haloperidol, 95% CI 1.11-4.22 and 1.53 for other drugs, 95% CI 0.94-2.48; p = 0.048) were significantly associated with the risk of developing delirium. The study indicates that some clinical factors are associated with the probability of delirium onset. Their evaluation in PC patients could help healthcare professionals to identify the development of delirium in those patients in a timely manner.