Cross-correlation and time series analysis of rabies in different animal species in Nepal from 2005 to 2018.

Rabies is a fatal zoonotic disease, resulting in human and livestock deaths. In Nepal, animal rabies has posed a significant challenge to public health. Because animals are the primary source of rabies in humans, a better understanding of rabies epidemiology in animals is necessary. The objectives of this study were to determine the correlation between rabies occurrences in dogs and livestock animals and to detect the trends and change points of the disease using longitudinal data. The nationwide rabies dataset from 2005 to 2018 was analyzed using cross-correlation, multiple change points, and time series methods. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Neural Network Autoregression (NNAR) were applied to the time series data. The results show a positive correlation between canine rabies and livestock rabies occurrences. Three significant change points were detected in the time series data, demonstrating that the occurrences were high in the initial years but stabilized before peaking to an upward trend in the final years of the study period. Nonetheless, there was no seasonality pattern in rabies occurrences. The most suitable models were ARIMA (2,1,2) and NNAR (5,1,4) (12). Based on the study findings, both locals and tourists in Nepal need to have enhanced awareness of the potential dangers posed by rabies in canines and livestock. This study offers much-needed insight into the patterns and epidemiology of animal rabies which will be helpful for policymakers in drafting rabies control plans for Nepal.

Environmental sampling for the detection of foot-and-mouth disease virus and peste des petits ruminants virus in a live goat market, Nepal.

Livestock markets are considered vital parts of the agricultural economy, particularly in developing countries where livestock keeping contributes to both food security and economic stability. Animals from diverse sources are moved to markets, they mix while they are there and are subsequently redistributed over wide geographic areas. Consequently, markets provide an opportunity for targeted surveillance for circulating pathogens. This study investigated the use of environmental sampling at a live goat market in Nepal for the detection of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) and peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV), both of which are endemic. Five visits to the market were carried out between November 2016 and April 2018, with FMDV RNA detected on four visits and PPRV RNA detected on all five visits. Overall, 4.1% of samples (nine out of 217) were positive for FMDV RNA and 60.8% (132 out of 217) were positive for PPRV RNA, though the proportion of positive samples varied amongst visits. These results demonstrate that non-invasive, environmental sampling methods have the potential to be used to detect circulation of high priority livestock diseases at a live animal market and, hence, to contribute to their surveillance and control.

One-health approach: A best possible way to control rabies.

More than 75% of emerging infectious diseases and 60% of known human infectious diseases are transmitted from animals. Among these zoonoses, rabies is of utmost public health significance due to its lethality. The multi-faceted nature of zoonotic disease complicates control and prevention and thus, a multi-sectoral One Health Approach could be a better strategy to cope with rabies. Up until now, rabies prevention and control programs are conducted utilizing mass vaccination of domestic and community dogs and cats, and mass awareness programs. However, the burden of rabies has not been reduced as these approaches have failed to include all stakeholders (human, animal, and environmental health sectors) in disease management programs. The aim of this review is to highlight why and how One Health Approach would be the most effective way to control rabies in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) like Nepal.

Environmental Sampling as a Low-Technology Method for Surveillance of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in an Area of Endemicity.

Environmental sampling enables disease surveillance beyond regular investigation of observed clinical cases, extending data on the circulation of a pathogen in a specific area. Developing straightforward, low-technology methods suitable for use under field conditions is key to the inclusion of such approaches alongside traditional surveillance techniques. Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is an economically important livestock pathogen, affecting cloven-hoofed livestock in many countries. Countries with FMDV face severe trade restrictions, and infections can have long-term effects on the productivity of affected animals. Environmental contamination by the virus in excretions and secretions from infected individuals promotes transmission but also presents an opportunity for noninvasive sample collection, facilitating diagnostic and surveillance activities. We present environmental sampling methods that have been tested in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, where FMDV is endemic. A total of nine sites were visited and sampled between November 2016 and November 2017. Environmental swabs collected from sites with reported outbreaks of FMD were used to demonstrate successful detection of FMDV RNA from the environment. The development of methods that can reliably detect FMDV RNA in the environment is significant, since this possibility extends the toolbox available for surveillance for this disease. Similar methods have already been deployed in the effort to eradicate polio, and with FMDV, such methods could easily be deployed in the event of an outbreak to provide additional resources for detection that would relieve pressure on veterinary services. The development of low-technology, straightforward surveillance methods such as these can support a robust response to outbreaks.IMPORTANCE Prompt confirmation and diagnosis of disease are key factors in controlling outbreaks. The development of sampling techniques to detect FMDV RNA from the environment will extend the tool kit available for the surveillance of this pathogen. The methods presented in this article broaden surveillance opportunities using accessible techniques. Pairing these methods with existing and novel diagnostic tests will improve the capability for rapid detection of outbreaks and implementation of timely interventions to control outbreaks. In areas of endemicity, these methods can be implemented to extend surveillance beyond the investigation of clinical cases, providing additional data for the assessment of virus circulation in specific areas.