Integrating Clinical Signs at Presentation and Clinician's Non-analytical Reasoning in Prediction Models for Serious Bacterial Infection in Febrile Children Presenting to Emergency Department.

Objective: Development and validation of clinical prediction model (CPM) for serious bacterial infections (SBIs) in children presenting to the emergency department (ED) with febrile illness, based on clinical variables, clinician's "gut feeling," and "sense of reassurance. Materials and Methods: Febrile children presenting to the ED of Children's Clinical University Hospital (CCUH) between April 1, 2017 and December 31, 2018 were enrolled in a prospective observational study. Data on clinical signs and symptoms at presentation, together with clinician's "gut feeling" of something wrong and "sense of reassurance" were collected as candidate variables for CPM. Variable selection for the CPM was performed using stepwise logistic regression (forward, backward, and bidirectional); Akaike information criterion was used to limit the number of parameters and simplify the model. Bootstrapping was applied for internal validation. For external validation, the model was tested in a separate dataset of patients presenting to six regional hospitals between January 1 and March 31, 2019. Results: The derivation cohort consisted of 517; 54% (n = 279) were boys, and the median age was 58 months. SBI was diagnosed in 26.7% (n = 138). Validation cohort included 188 patients; the median age was 28 months, and 26.6% (n = 50) developed SBI. Two CPMs were created, namely, CPM1 consisting of six clinical variables and CPM2 with four clinical variables plus "gut feeling" and "sense of reassurance." The area under the curve (AUC) for receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve of CPM1 was 0.744 (95% CI, 0.683-0.805) in the derivation cohort and 0.692 (95% CI, 0.604-0.780) in the validation cohort. AUC for CPM2 was 0.783 (0.727-0.839) and 0.752 (0.674-0.830) in derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. AUC of CPM2 in validation population was significantly higher than that of CPM1 [p = 0.037, 95% CI (-0.129; -0.004)]. A clinical evaluation score was derived from CPM2 to stratify patients in "low risk," "gray area," and "high risk" for SBI. Conclusion: Both CPMs had moderate ability to predict SBI and acceptable performance in the validation cohort. Adding variables "gut feeling" and "sense of reassurance" in CPM2 improved its ability to predict SBI. More validation studies are needed for the assessment of applicability to all febrile patients presenting to ED.

A Comparison of the Epidemiology, Clinical Features, and Treatment of Acute Osteomyelitis in Hospitalized Children in Latvia and Norway.

Background and objectives: Paediatric acute osteomyelitis (AO) may result in major life-threatening and limb-threatening complications if not recognized and treated early. The management of AO may depend on local microbial prevalence and virulence factors. This study compares the approach to paediatric AO in hospitals in two countries-Latvia and Norway. Materials and Methods: The study includes patients with AO hospitalized in the paediatric department in the Norwegian hospital Sørlandet Sykehus Kristiansand (SSK), in the period between the 1st of January 2012 and the 31st of December 2019. The results from SSK are compared to the results of a published study of AO in patients hospitalized at the Children's Clinical University Hospital (CCUH) in Riga, Latvia. Results: The most isolated pathogen from cultures in both hospitals was S. aureus (methicillin-sensitive). The lower extremity was the most affected body part (75% in CCUH, 95% in SSK), the main clinical symptom was pain (CCUH 92%, SSK 96.6%). Deep culture aspiration was most often taken intraoperatively in CCUH (76.6%) and percutaneously in SSK (44.8%). Oxacillin was the most applied antibiotic in CCUH (89.4%), and Cloxacillin in SSK (84.6%). Combined treatment with anti-Staphylococcal penicillins and Clindamycin was administered in 25.5% and 33.8% of CCUH and SSK patients, respectively. The median duration of the intravenous antibacterial treatment in CCUH and SSK was 15 and 10 days, respectively, and a switch to oral therapy was mainly made at discharge in both hospitals. The median total duration of antibiotic treatment was 25 days in CCUH and 35 days in SSK. 75% of CCUH and 10.3% of SSK patients were treated surgically. Complications were seen in 47% of patients in CCUH and in 38% in SSK. Conclusions: The transition to oral antibacterial treatment in both hospitals was delayed, which suggests a lack of criteria for discontinuation of intravenous therapy and could potentially contribute to longer hospitalization, higher cost of treatment and risk of complications. The use of more invasive techniques for deep culturing and significantly more common surgical interventions could possibly be linked to a higher complication rate in AO patients treated at the Latvian hospital.

Beliefs, Practices and Health Care Seeking Behavior of Parents Regarding Fever in Children.

Background and objectives: Fever in children is one of the most common reasons for seeking medical attention. Parents often have misconceptions about the effects to fever, which leads to inappropriate use of medication and nonurgent visits to emergency departments (ED). The aim of this study was to clarify the beliefs on the effects and management of fever and to identify healthcare seeking patterns among parents of febrile children in Latvia. Materials and Methods: Parents and legal guardians of children attending ED with febrile illness were included in the study. Participants were recruited in Children's Clinical University Hospital (CCUH) in Riga, and in six regional hospitals in Latvia. Data on beliefs about fever, administration of antipyretics, healthcare-seeking behavior, and experience in communication with health care workers were collected via questionnaire. Results: In total, 355 participants were enrolled: 199 in CCUH and 156 in regional hospitals; 59.2% of participants considered fever itself as indicative of serious illness and 92.8% believed it could raise the child's body temperature up to a dangerous level. Antipyretics were usually administered at median temperature of 38.0 °C, and the median temperature believed to be dangerous was 39.7 °C; 56.7% of parents usually contacted a doctor within the first 24 h of the illness. Parents who believed that lower temperatures are dangerous to a child were more likely to contact a doctor earlier and out-of-hours; 60.1% of participants had contacted their family doctor prior their visit to ED. Parental evaluation of satisfaction with the information and reassurance provided by the doctors at the hospital was higher than of that provided by their family doctor; 68.2% of participants felt safer when their febrile children were treated at the hospital. Conclusions: Fever itself was regarded as indicative of serious illness and potentially dangerous to the child's life. These misconceptions lead to inappropriate administration of antipyretics and early-seeking of medical attention, even out-of-hours. Hospital environment was viewed as safer and more reassuring when dealing with febrile illness in children. More emphasis must be placed on parental education on proper management of fever, especially in primary care.

Value of parental concern and clinician's gut feeling in recognition of serious bacterial infections: a prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Serious bacterial infections (SBI) are a significant cause of mortality worldwide. Parental concern and clinician's gut feeling that there is something wrong has been associated with increased likelihood of developing SBI in primary care studies. The aim of this study is to assess the diagnostic value of parental concern and gut feeling at the emergency department of a tertiary hospital. METHODS: This prospective observational study included children with fever attending the emergency department of Children's Clinical University hospital in Riga between October 2017 and July 2018. Data were collected via parental and clinician questionnaires. "Gut feeling" was defined as intuitive feeling that the child may have a serious illness, and "Sense of reassurance" as a feeling that the child has a self-limiting illness. "Parental concern" was defined as impression that this illness is different from previous illnesses. SBI included bacterial meningitis, sepsis, bacteraemia, pneumonia, urinary tract infection, appendicitis, bacterial gastroenteritis, and osteomyelitis. Pearson's Chi-Squared test or Fisher's exact test were used to compare the variables between children with and without SBI. Positive likelihood ratio was calculated for "gut feeling", "sense of reassurance", and parental concern. RESULTS: The study included 162 patients aged 2 months to 17.8 years. Forty-six patients were diagnosed with SBI. "Sense of reassurance" expressed by all clinicians was associated with lower likelihood of SBI (positive likelihood ratio 8.8, 95% confidence interval 2.2-34.8). "Gut feeling" was not significantly predictive of the patient being diagnosed with SBI (positive likelihood ratio 3.1, 95% confidence interval 1.9-5.1), The prognostic rule-in value of parental concern was insignificant (positive likelihood ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1-1.7). CONCLUSION: Sense of reassurance was useful in ruling out SBI. Parental concern was not significantly predictive of SBI.