Unveiling ecological/evolutionary insights in HIV viral load dynamics: Allowing random slopes to observe correlational changes to CpG-contents and other molecular and clinical predictors.

In the context of infectious diseases, the dynamic interplay between ever-changing host populations and viral biology demands a more flexible modeling approach than common fixed correlations. Embracing random-effects regression models allows for a nuanced understanding of the intricate ecological and evolutionary dynamics underlying complex phenomena, offering valuable insights into disease progression and transmission patterns. In this article, we employed a random-effects regression to model an observed decreasing median plasma viral load (pVL) among individuals with HIV in Mexico City during 2019-2021. We identified how these functional slope changes (i.e. random slopes by year) improved predictions of the observed pVL median changes between 2019 and 2021, leading us to hypothesize underlying ecological and evolutionary factors. Our analysis involved a dataset of pVL values from 7325 ART-naïve individuals living with HIV, accompanied by their associated clinical and viral molecular predictors. A conventional fixed-effects linear model revealed significant correlations between pVL and predictors that evolved over time. However, this fixed-effects model could not fully explain the reduction in median pVL; thus, prompting us to adopt random-effects models. After applying a random effects regression model-with random slopes and intercepts by year-, we observed potential "functional changes" within the local HIV viral population, highlighting the importance of ecological and evolutionary considerations in HIV dynamics: A notably stronger negative correlation emerged between HIV pVL and the CpG content in the pol gene, suggesting a changing immune landscape influenced by CpG-induced innate immune responses that could impact viral load dynamics. Our study underscores the significance of random effects models in capturing dynamic correlations and the crucial role of molecular characteristics like CpG content. By enriching our understanding of changing host-virus interactions and HIV progression, our findings contribute to the broader relevance of such models in infectious disease research. They shed light on the changing interplay between host and pathogen, driving us closer to more effective strategies for managing infectious diseases. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY: This study highlights a decreasing trend in median plasma viral loads among ART-naïve individuals living with HIV in Mexico City between 2019 and 2021. It uncovers various predictors significantly correlated with pVL, shedding light on the complex interplay between host-virus interactions and disease progression. By employing a random-slopes model, the researchers move beyond traditional fixed-effects models to better capture dynamic correlations and evolutionary changes in HIV dynamics. The discovery of a stronger negative correlation between pVL and CpG content in HIV-pol sequences suggests potential changes in the immune landscape and innate immune responses, opening avenues for further research into adaptive changes and responses to environmental shifts in the context of HIV infection. The study's emphasis on molecular characteristics as predictors of pVL adds valuable insights to epidemiological and evolutionary studies of viruses, providing new avenues for understanding and managing HIV infection at the population level.

Honduras HIV cohort: HLA class I and CCR5-Δ32 profiles and their associations with HIV disease outcome.

IMPORTANCE: We identify both canonical and novel human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-HIV associations, providing a first step toward improved understanding of HIV immune control among the understudied Honduras Mestizo population. Our results are relevant to understanding the protective or detrimental effects of HLA subtypes in Latin America because their unique HLA diversity poses challenges for designing vaccines against HIV and interpreting results from such vaccine trials. Likewise, the description of the HLA profile in an understudied population that shows a unique HLA immunogenetic background is not only relevant for HIV immunology but also relevant in population genetics, molecular anthropology, susceptibility to other infections, autoimmune diseases, and allograft transplantation.

Novel HLA class I associations with HIV-1 control in a unique genetically admixed population.

Associations between HLA class I alleles and HIV progression in populations exhibiting Amerindian and Caucasian genetic admixture remain understudied. Using univariable and multivariable analyses we evaluated HLA associations with five HIV clinical parameters in 3,213 HIV clade B-infected, ART-naïve individuals from Mexico and Central America (MEX/CAM cohort). A Canadian cohort (HOMER, n = 1622) was used for comparison. As expected, HLA allele frequencies in MEX/CAM and HOMER differed markedly. In MEX/CAM, 13 HLA-A, 24 HLA-B, and 14 HLA-C alleles were significantly associated with at least one clinical parameter. These included previously described protective (e.g. B*27:05, B*57:01/02/03 and B*58:01) and risk (e.g. B*35:02) alleles, as well as novel ones (e.g. A*03:01, B*15:39 and B*39:02 identified as protective, and A*68:03/05, B*15:30, B*35:12/14, B*39:01/06, B*39:05~C*07:02, and B*40:01~C*03:04 identified as risk). Interestingly, both protective (e.g. B*39:02) and risk (e.g. B*39:01/05/06) subtypes were identified within the common and genetically diverse HLA-B*39 allele group, characteristic to Amerindian populations. While HLA-HIV associations identified in MEX and CAM separately were similar overall (Spearman's rho = 0.33, p = 0.03), region-specific associations were also noted. The identification of both canonical and novel HLA/HIV associations provides a first step towards improved understanding of HIV immune control among unique and understudied Mestizo populations.

Weaker HLA Footprints on HIV in the Unique and Highly Genetically Admixed Host Population of Mexico.

HIV circumvents HLA class I-restricted CD8+ T-cell responses through selection of escape mutations that leave characteristic mutational "footprints," also known as HLA-associated polymorphisms (HAPs), on HIV sequences at the population level. While many HLA footprints are universal across HIV subtypes and human populations, others can be region specific as a result of the unique immunogenetic background of each host population. Using a published probabilistic phylogenetically informed model, we compared HAPs in HIV Gag and Pol (PR-RT) in 1,612 subtype B-infected, antiretroviral treatment-naive individuals from Mexico and 1,641 individuals from Canada/United States. A total of 252 HLA class I allele subtypes were represented, including 140 observed in both cohorts, 67 unique to Mexico, and 45 unique to Canada/United States. At the predefined statistical threshold of a q value of <0.2, 358 HAPs (201 in Gag, 157 in PR-RT) were identified in Mexico, while 905 (534 in Gag and 371 in PR-RT) were identified in Canada/United States. HAPs identified in Mexico included both canonical HLA-associated escape pathways and novel associations, in particular with HLA alleles enriched in Amerindian and mestizo populations. Remarkably, HLA footprints on HIV in Mexico were not only fewer but also, on average, significantly weaker than those in Canada/United States, although some exceptions were noted. Moreover, exploratory analyses suggested that the weaker HLA footprint on HIV in Mexico may be due, at least in part, to weaker and/or less reproducible HLA-mediated immune pressures on HIV in this population. The implications of these differences for natural and vaccine-induced anti-HIV immunity merit further investigation.IMPORTANCE HLA footprints on HIV identify viral regions under intense and consistent pressure by HLA-restricted immune responses and the common mutational pathways that HIV uses to evade them. In particular, HLA footprints can identify novel immunogenic regions and/or epitopes targeted by understudied HLA alleles; moreover, comparative analyses across immunogenetically distinct populations can illuminate the extent to which HIV immunogenic regions and escape pathways are shared versus population-specific pathways, information which can in turn inform the design of universal or geographically tailored HIV vaccines. We compared HLA-associated footprints on HIV in two immunogenetically distinct North American populations, those of Mexico and Canada/United States. We identify both shared and population-specific pathways of HIV adaptation but also make the surprising observation that HLA footprints on HIV in Mexico overall are fewer and weaker than those in Canada/United States, raising the possibility that HLA-restricted antiviral immune responses in Mexico are weaker, and/or escape pathways somewhat less consistent, than those in other populations.

Killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptor and human leukocyte antigen gene profiles in a cohort of HIV-infected Mexican Mestizos.

Killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs) represent the most polymorphic genes responsible for natural killer cell function, while human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I molecules define and restrict cytotoxic T lymphocyte responses. Specific KIR, HLA, or KIR-HLA combinations have been implicated in the outcome of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease. The remarkable polymorphism of KIR and HLA genes warrants descriptive gene frequency studies in different populations, as well as their impact on HIV disease progression in different immunogenetic contexts. We report KIR and HLA class I gene profiles of 511 unrelated HIV-infected Mexican Mestizo individuals from 18 states for whom genetic ancestry proportions were assessed. KIR and HLA gene profiles were compared between individuals from the north and central-south regions of the country and between individuals with higher European (EUR) or Amerindian (AMI) genetic ancestry component. A total of 65 KIR genotypes were observed, 11 harboring novel KIR gene combinations. A total of 164 HLA alleles were observed: 43 HLA-A, 87 HLA-B, and 34 HLA-C. Differences in the distribution of 12 HLA alleles were observed between individuals with higher AMI or EUR ancestry components (p < 0.05, q < 0.2). After correcting for genetic ancestry, only individual HLA alleles were associated with HIV disease progression, including a novel association with A*02:06, an Amerindian HLA allele associated with lower CD4+ T cell counts. No KIR effects were significant. Our results highlight the advantages of considering a detailed genetic stratification within populations when studying genetic profiles that could be implicated in disease-association studies.

Identification of Immunogenic Cytotoxic T Lymphocyte Epitopes Containing Drug Resistance Mutations in Antiretroviral Treatment-Naïve HIV-Infected Individuals.

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic HIV vaccines may prove helpful to intensify antiretroviral treatment (ART) efficacy and may be an integral part of future cure strategies. METHODS: We examined IFN-gamma ELISpot responses to a panel of 218 HIV clade B consensus-based HIV protease-reverse transcriptase peptides, designed to mimic previously described and predicted cytotoxic T lymphocyte epitopes overlapping drug resistance (DR) positions, that either included the consensus sequence or the DR variant sequence, in 49 ART-naïve HIV-infected individuals. Next generation sequencing was used to assess the presence of minority DR variants in circulating viral populations. RESULTS: Although a wide spectrum of differential magnitudes of response to DR vs. WT peptide pairs was observed, responses to DR peptides were frequent and strong in the study cohort. No difference between the median magnitudes of response to DR vs. WT peptides was observed. Interestingly, of the 22 peptides that were recognized by >15% of the participants, two-thirds (64%) corresponded to DR peptides. When analysing responses per peptide pair per individual, responses to only WT (median 4 pairs/individual) or DR (median 6 pairs/individual) were more common than responses to both WT and DR (median 2 pairs/individual; p<0.001). While the presence of ELISpot responses to WT peptides was frequently associated with the presence of the corresponding peptide sequence in the patient's virus (mean 68% of cases), responses to DR peptides were generally not associated with the presence of DR mutations in the viral population, even at low frequencies (mean 1.4% of cases; p = 0.0002). CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggests that DR peptides are frequently immunogenic and raises the potential benefit of broadening the antigens included in a therapeutic vaccine approach to immunogenic epitopes containing common DR sequences. Further studies are needed to assess the quality of responses elicited by DR peptides.

Impact of HLA selection pressure on HIV fitness at a population level in Mexico and Barbados.

UNLABELLED: Previous studies have demonstrated that effective cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) responses drive the selection of escape mutations that reduce viral replication capacity (VRC). Escape mutations, including those with reduced VRC, can be transmitted and accumulate in a population. Here we compared two antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive HIV clade B-infected cohorts, in Mexico and Barbados, in which the most protective HLA alleles (HLA-B*27/57/58:01/81:01) are differentially expressed, at 8% and 34%, respectively. Viral loads were significantly higher in Mexico than in Barbados (median, 40,774 versus 14,200; P < 0.0001), and absolute CD4(+) T-cell counts were somewhat lower (median, 380/mm(3) versus 403/mm(3); P = 0.007). We tested the hypothesis that the disparate frequencies of these protective HLA alleles would be associated with a higher VRC at the population level in Mexico. Analysis of VRC in subjects in each cohort, matched for CD4(+) T-cell count, revealed that the VRC was indeed higher in the Mexican cohort (mean, 1.13 versus 1.03; P = 0.0025). Although CD4 counts were matched, viral loads remained significantly higher in the Mexican subjects (P = 0.04). This VRC difference was reflected by a significantly higher frequency in the Barbados cohort of HLA-B*27/57/58:01/81:01-associated Gag escape mutations previously shown to incur a fitness cost on the virus (P = 0.004), a difference between the two cohorts that remained statistically significant even in subjects not expressing these protective alleles (P = 0.01). These data suggest that viral set points and disease progression rates at the population level may be significantly influenced by the prevalence of protective HLA alleles such as HLA-B*27/57/58:01/81:01 and that CD4 count-based guidelines to initiate antiretroviral therapy may need to be modified accordingly, to optimize the effectiveness of treatment-for-prevention strategies and reduce HIV transmission rates to the absolute minimum. IMPORTANCE: Immune control of HIV at an individual level is strongly influenced by the HLA class I genotype. HLA class I molecules mediating effective immune control, such as HLA-B*27 and HLA-B*57, are associated with the selection of escape mutants that reduce viral replicative capacity. The escape mutants selected in infected patients can be transmitted and affect the viral load and CD4 count in the recipient. These findings prompt the hypothesis that the frequency of protective alleles in a population may affect viral set points and rates of disease progression in that population. These studies in Mexico and Barbados, where the prevalence rates of protective HLA alleles are 8% and 34%, respectively, support this hypothesis. These data suggest that antiretroviral therapy (ART) treatment-for-prevention strategies will be less successful in populations such as those in Mexico, where viral loads are higher for a given CD4 count. Consideration may therefore usefully be given to ART initiation at higher absolute CD4 counts in such populations to optimize the impact of ART for prevention.

Impact of HLA-B*35 subtype differences on HIV disease outcome in Mexico.

HLA-B35 has consistently been associated with rapid HIV disease progression, particularly alleles of the Px group. As B35 is the most prevalent HLA-B in Mexico, we investigated HIV disease outcome in relation to HLA expression in a large cohort (n=976) of Mexicans. Contrary to the previous studies, no impact on viral load or CD4 cell count was observed in association with the B35 PY/Px groups. However, we observed differences in HIV disease outcome associated with specific HLA-B35 alleles.

Differential clade-specific HLA-B*3501 association with HIV-1 disease outcome is linked to immunogenicity of a single Gag epitope.

The strongest genetic influence on immune control in HIV-1 infection is the HLA class I genotype. Rapid disease progression in B-clade infection has been linked to HLA-B*35 expression, in particular to the less common HLA-B*3502 and HLA-B*3503 subtypes but also to the most prevalent subtype, HLA-B*3501. In these studies we first demonstrated that whereas HLA-B*3501 is associated with a high viral set point in two further B-clade-infected cohorts, in Japan and Mexico, this association does not hold in two large C-clade-infected African cohorts. We tested the hypothesis that clade-specific differences in HLA associations with disease outcomes may be related to distinct targeting of critical CD8(+) T-cell epitopes. We observed that only one epitope was significantly targeted differentially, namely, the Gag-specific epitope NPPIPVGDIY (NY10, Gag positions 253 to 262) (P = 2 × 10(-5)). In common with two other HLA-B*3501-restricted epitopes, in Gag and Nef, that were not targeted differentially, a response toward NY10 was associated with a significantly lower viral set point. Nonimmunogenicity of NY10 in B-clade-infected subjects derives from the Gag-D260E polymorphism present in ∼90% of B-clade sequences, which critically reduces recognition of the Gag NY10 epitope. These data suggest that in spite of any inherent HLA-linked T-cell receptor repertoire differences that may exist, maximizing the breadth of the Gag-specific CD8(+) T-cell response, by the addition of even a single epitope, may be of overriding importance in achieving immune control of HIV infection. This distinction is of direct relevance to development of vaccines designed to optimize the anti-HIV CD8(+) T-cell response in all individuals, irrespective of HLA type.

Unique features of HLA-mediated HIV evolution in a Mexican cohort: a comparative study.

BACKGROUND: Mounting evidence indicates that HLA-mediated HIV evolution follows highly stereotypic pathways that result in HLA-associated footprints in HIV at the population level. However, it is not known whether characteristic HLA frequency distributions in different populations have resulted in additional unique footprints. METHODS: The phylogenetic dependency network model was applied to assess HLA-mediated evolution in datasets of HIV pol sequences from free plasma viruses and peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC)-integrated proviruses in an immunogenetically unique cohort of Mexican individuals. Our data were compared with data from the IHAC cohort, a large multi-center cohort of individuals from Canada, Australia and the USA. RESULTS: Forty three different HLA-HIV codon associations representing 30 HLA-HIV codon pairs were observed in the Mexican cohort (q < 0.2). Strikingly, 23 (53%) of these associations differed from those observed in the well-powered IHAC cohort, strongly suggesting the existence of unique characteristics in HLA-mediated HIV evolution in the Mexican cohort. Furthermore, 17 of the 23 novel associations involved HLA alleles whose frequencies were not significantly different from those in IHAC, suggesting that their detection was not due to increased statistical power but to differences in patterns of epitope targeting. Interestingly, the consensus differed in four positions between the two cohorts and three of these positions could be explained by HLA-associated selection. Additionally, different HLA-HIV codon associations were seen when comparing HLA-mediated selection in plasma viruses and PBMC archived proviruses at the population level, with a significantly lower number of associations in the proviral dataset. CONCLUSION: Our data support universal HLA-mediated HIV evolution at the population level, resulting in detectable HLA-associated footprints in the circulating virus. However, it also strongly suggests that unique genetic backgrounds in different HIV-infected populations may influence HIV evolution in a particular direction as particular HLA-HIV codon associations are determined by specific HLA frequency distributions. Our analysis also suggests a dynamic HLA-associated evolution in HIV with fewer HLA-HIV codon associations observed in the proviral compartment, which is likely enriched in early archived HIV sequences, compared to the plasma virus compartment. These results highlight the importance of comparative HIV evolutionary studies in immunologically different populations worldwide.