The TICKPRO computer program for predicting Ixodes ricinus host-seeking activity and the warning system published on websites.

The computer program with the acronym TICKPRO (tick prognosis) facilitates medium-range forecasts of the level of host-seeking activity in ticks within a 1-4 day horizon. The program is based on the medium-range weather forecast routinely produced at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI), as well as on previously developed mathematical models describing the correlation of meteorological factors with the host-seeking activity of Ixodes ricinus. These models are based on a 6-year whole-season monitoring of I. ricinus host-seeking activity on experimental fields in the Central Bohemia Region in a typical habitat, oakhornbeam forest, where tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus and Borrelia burgdorferi s.str., B. afzelii, and B. garinii have been found. Meteorological data provided by the CHMI meteorological station in Prague-Libus were used, and during the development of the forecasting algorithm micrometeorological data have been collected directly at the tick monitoring sites under selected synoptic weather situations. In the TICKPRO program, the two most successful models utilized ambient air temperature, quantity of atmospheric precipitation, and relative air humidity. The prediction determines 5 levels of risk of attack according to the current proportion of host-seeking ticks, and thus determines the risk of TBE infection. The levels of risk defined by the TICKPRO program are supplemented by instructions on how to prepare oneself for entering sites with potential tick occurrence, how to move around once there, and how to behave on returning home. This warning system is weekly published on websites of National Institute of Public Health and CHMI, Prague, over entire season (March-November).

Risk assessment and prediction of Ixodes ricinus tick questing activity and human tick-borne encephalitis infection in space and time in the Czech Republic.

Present risk assessment and prediction of future risk of humans exposed to Ixodes (I.) ricinus tick attacks and, consequently, to tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus infection as one of the basic preconditions for successful TBE prevention has been intensively studied in the Czech Republic. An atlas of TBE in the Czech Republic containing predictive maps of I. ricinus high-incidence habitats and TBE risk sites identified by satellite data (Landsat 5 TM with spatial resolution 30 m) at a scale of 1:200,000 over a territory of 52,000 km(2) and maps of human TBE case distribution (1971-2000) has been prepared using remote sensing and geographical information systems technologies. The influence of climate changes on a forest ecosystem inhabited by I. ricinus has been studied in the southern region of the Czech Republic. The analysis of long-term series (1931-2000) of climatologic and phenological characteristics has been carried out. The results are compared with the long-term series of TBE incidence. The influence of weather condition on day-to-day changes of I. ricinus host-seeking activities was studied in 2001-2004. Field observations were realized in the south-eastern periphery of Prague where the experimental plots for tick monitoring were established in a relevant type of forest growth (Querceto-carpinetum). I. ricinus activities were investigated by the flagging method on three plots (200 m(2) each) in weekly intervals (March to November) during 2001-2004. The instruments for micrometeorological observations were installed between the experimental plots. Macrometeorological data were used from the nearby Czech Hydrometeorological Institute first class meteorological observatory. Simple and multiple linear regression and quadratic regression were used to test the relation between weather modification and I. ricinus host-seeking activity. Two preliminary most suitable 'models' are demonstrated.