Subclinical atherosclerosis and risk of atrial fibrillation: the rotterdam study.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial infarction is an important risk factor for atrial fibrillation, but the role of subclinical atherosclerosis is unknown. This longitudinal study evaluates whether atherosclerosis affects the risk of atrial fibrillation in persons without overt coronary disease. METHODS: This investigation was part of the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study among persons 55 years or older. Participants with atrial fibrillation at baseline, with a history of myocardial infarction, or with angina pectoris and those who had undergone cardiac operative procedures were excluded, leaving 4407 subjects for the analyses. Baseline intima-media thickness of the common carotid artery and the presence of carotid plaques were used as indices of generalized atherosclerosis. During a median follow-up of 7.5 years, 269 cases of incident atrial fibrillation were identified. Relative risks were calculated with 95% confidence intervals, adjusted for age and sex, using the Cox proportional hazards model. Additional adjustments were made for body mass index, hypertension, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol level, smoking, diabetes mellitus, left ventricular hypertrophy on the electrocardiogram, and the use of cardiac medication. RESULTS: The risk of atrial fibrillation was associated with carotid intima-media thickness (relative risk, 1.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-3.00, highest vs lowest quartile) and severity of carotid plaques (relative risk, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-2.10, severe vs absence). Risk estimates were stronger in women than in men. CONCLUSIONS: Atherosclerosis in participants without manifest atherosclerotic disease is an independent risk factor for atrial fibrillation. These results suggest that aggressive treatment of asymptomatic atherosclerosis may help to prevent atrial fibrillation.

Aortic stiffness is associated with atherosclerosis of the coronary arteries in older adults: the Rotterdam Study.

OBJECTIVE: Aortic stiffness can lead to low diastolic blood pressure, thereby possibly limiting coronary perfusion. Therefore, the simultaneous occurrence of both aortic stiffness and coronary atherosclerosis can lead to an increased risk of subendocardial ischaemia. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between aortic stiffness and coronary atherosclerosis. METHODS: The study was performed in 1757 subjects of the Rotterdam Study, a population-based study of elderly individuals. Aortic stiffness was assessed by measuring carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV). Coronary atherosclerosis was assessed by measuring coronary calcification using electron beam tomography and expressed as a total calcium score. The total calcium score was log-transformed because of its skewed distribution. The association between PWV and coronary calcification was first evaluated after adjustment for age, sex, mean arterial blood pressure and heart rate. RESULTS: Linear regression analyses showed that increased PWV was associated with a higher log total coronary calcium score [beta-regression coefficient 0.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.07-0.15]. Compared with the lowest quartile of PWV, multivariate odds ratios and corresponding 95% CI for advanced coronary calcification in the second, third and fourth highest quartiles were 1.17 (0.79-1.74), 1.58 (1.07-2.34) and 2.12 (1.40-3.20), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this large population-based study performed in elderly subjects aortic stiffness was strongly and independently associated with coronary atherosclerosis.

Impaired fasting glucose is associated with increased arterial stiffness in elderly people without diabetes mellitus: the Rotterdam Study.

OBJECTIVES: To study the association between impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and arterial stiffness in older adults. DESIGN: Cross-sectional population-based study. SETTING: The Rotterdam Study, a Dutch population-based cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Two thousand nine hundred eighty-seven subjects aged 60 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Arterial stiffness assessed by measuring common carotid arterial distensibility and glucose status classified into three categories: normal fasting glucose (NFG) (fasting glucose <6.1 mmol/L), IFG (fasting glucose 6.1-6.9 mmol/L), and diabetes mellitus (DM). RESULTS: In the total cohort, common carotid distensibility decreased with increasing impairment of glucose metabolism. Subjects younger than 75 with IFG were comparable with subjects with NFG with respect to arterial stiffness. Subjects aged 75 and older with IFG had stiffer arteries than subjects with NFG, reaching the same arterial stiffness as subjects with DM. For subjects younger than 75, mean difference in distensibility coefficient between subjects with NFG and with IFG was 0.1 (95% confidence interval (CI)=-0.04-0.05, P=.88) and between subjects with NFG and with DM was 1.2 (95% CI=0.7-1.7, P<.001). For subjects aged 75 and older, the mean difference between these groups was 0.7 (95% CI=0.2-1.2, P=.007) and 0.8 (0.3-1.4; P=.002), respectively. In the total cohort, fasting glucose was strongly associated with carotid distensibility (beta-coefficient=-0.29, P<.001). CONCLUSION: IFG is related to arterial stiffness in elderly subjects. An advanced stage of arterial stiffness, comparable with that of subjects with DM, is only reached at the age of 75.

Prevalence, incidence and lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation: the Rotterdam study.

AIMS: We aimed to investigate the prevalence and incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in a large European population-based study. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study is part of the Rotterdam study, a population-based prospective cohort study among subjects aged 55 years and above. The prevalence at baseline was assessed in 6808 participants. Incidence of AF was investigated during a mean follow-up period of 6.9 years in 6432 persons. We identified 376 prevalent and 437 incident cases. Overall prevalence was 5.5%, rising from 0.7% in the age group 55-59 years to 17.8% in those aged 85 years and above. The overall incidence rate was 9.9/1000 person-years. The incidence rate in the age group 55-59 years was 1.1/1000 person-years, rose to 20.7/1000 person-years in the age group 80-84 years and stabilized in those aged 85 years and above. Prevalence and incidence were higher in men than in women. The lifetime risk to develop AF at the age of 55 years was 23.8% in men and 22.2% in women. CONCLUSION: In this prospective study in a European population, the prevalence and incidence of AF increased with age and were higher in men than in women. The high lifetime risk to develop AF was similar to North American epidemiological data.

Incidence of recognized and unrecognized myocardial infarction in men and women aged 55 and older: the Rotterdam Study.

AIMS: Contemporary data on the incidence of unrecognized myocardial infarction (MI) among subjects aged 55 and older are limited. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied the incidence of recognized and unrecognized MI in the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort of men and women aged 55 and older. The baseline examination was performed during 1990-93, with follow-up examinations during 1994-95, and 1997-2000. Baseline and follow-up 12-lead ECGs were analysed by the Modular ECG Analysis System. The 5148 participants who had no evidence of prevalent infarction were the subjects for analysis. Incident recognized infarction was defined as the occurrence of a fatal or non-fatal event coded as I21 according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition. A repeat ECG was available in 4187 subjects. An unrecognized infarction was considered to have occurred if there was electrocardiographic evidence in the absence of a clinically recognized event. During a median follow-up of 6.4 years, 141 incident recognized infarctions occurred and the incidence rate of this event was 5.0 per 1000 person years. The incidence was higher in men (8.4) than in women (3.1). The incidence rate of unrecognized infarction was 3.8 per 1000 person years. Men (4.2) and women (3.6) had approximately similar incidence. Hence, the proportion of unrecognized infarction was lower in men (33%) than in women (54%). This difference in proportion of unrecognized infarctions was independent of age. CONCLUSION: A high proportion of incident MIs remains clinically unrecognized. As a history of MI is associated with an increased risk of repeat cardiovascular complications, our data suggest a need for periodical electrocardiographic screening to recognize (prevalent) infarctions and to install effective preventive treatment in those aged 55 and older.

Blood pressure components and cardiovascular events in older adults: the Rotterdam study.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the strength of the relative risks of systolic (SBP) diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and pulse pressure (PP) as predictors of myocardial infarction and stroke in older adults. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: The Rotterdam Study, a Dutch population-based study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 4,234 subjects aged 55 and older with no previous myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke at baseline. MEASUREMENTS: Blood pressure levels at baseline, first MI and stroke, all-cause mortality during follow-up. RESULTS: During follow-up, 205 subjects had an MI (average follow-up period 7 years), 137 subjects had a stroke (average follow-up period 6.1 years), and 748 subjects died. A 1-standard deviation difference in SBP, DBP, and PP was associated with relative risks of MI of 1.24 (95% confidence interval (CI)=1.06-1.46), 1.07 (0.92-1.25), and 1.25 (1.07-1.48), respectively. Corresponding relative risks for stroke were 1.59 (1.37-1.86), 1.27 (1.10-1.48), and 1.48 (1.27-1.72). For all-cause mortality the corresponding relative risks and 95% CI were 1.21 (1.11-1.31), 1.06 (0.99-1.14), and 1.20 (1.10-1.31). CONCLUSION: The results of this study suggest that, in a population of apparently healthy older adults, PP is not a better predictor of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality than SBP.

Predictive value of noninvasive measures of atherosclerosis for incident myocardial infarction: the Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND: Several noninvasive methods are available to investigate the severity of extracoronary atherosclerotic disease. No population-based study has yet examined whether differences exist between these measures with regard to their predictive value for myocardial infarction (MI) or whether a given measure of atherosclerosis has predictive value independently of the other measures. METHODS AND RESULTS: At the baseline (1990-1993) examination of the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study among subjects age > or =55 years, carotid plaques and intima-media thickness (IMT) were measured by ultrasound, abdominal aortic atherosclerosis by x-ray, and lower-extremity atherosclerosis by computation of the ankle-arm index. In the present study, 6389 subjects were included; 258 cases of incident MI occurred before January 1, 2000. All 4 measures of atherosclerosis were good predictors of MI independently of traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Hazard ratios were equally high for carotid plaques (1.83 [1.27 to 2.62], severe versus no atherosclerosis), carotid IMT (1.95 [1.19 to 3.19]), and aortic atherosclerosis (1.94 [1.30 to 2.90]) and slightly lower for lower-extremity atherosclerosis (1.59 [1.05 to 2.39]), although differences were small. The hazard ratio for MI for subjects with severe atherosclerosis according to a composite atherosclerosis score was 2.77 (1.70 to 4.52) compared with subjects with no atherosclerosis. The predictive value of MI for a given measure of atherosclerosis was independent of the other atherosclerosis measures. CONCLUSIONS: Noninvasive measures of extracoronary atherosclerosis are strong predictors of MI. The relatively crude measures directly assessing plaques in the carotid artery and abdominal aorta predict MI equally well as the more precisely measured carotid IMT.

Genetic variability of von Willebrand factor and risk of coronary heart disease: the Rotterdam Study.

The von Willebrand factor (VWF) may be causally associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) or merely be a marker of endothelial damage. The G allele of the -1793 C/G promoter polymorphism in the VWF gene has been associated with higher plasma levels of VWF. To investigate whether VWF has a causal role in CHD, we designed a case-cohort study, including 352 subjects with CHD and a random cohort (n = 736), and prospectively examined the association of the -1793 C/G polymorphism with CHD in subjects with and without advanced atherosclerosis. All subjects were

Spatial QRS-T angle predicts cardiac death in a general population.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic importance of the spatial QRS-T angle for fatal and non-fatal cardiac events. METHODS AND RESULTS: Electrocardiograms (ECGs) were recorded in 6134 men and women aged 55 years and over from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study. Spatial QRS-T angles were categorized as normal, borderline or abnormal. Using Cox's proportional hazards model, abnormal angles showed increased hazard ratios of cardiac death (age-and sex-adjusted hazard ratio 5.2 (95% CI 4.0-6.8)), non-fatal cardiac events (2.2 (1.5-3.1)), sudden death (5.6 (3.7-8.5)) and total mortality (2.3 (2.0-2.7)). None of the classical cardiovascular and ECG predictors provided larger hazard ratios. After adjustment for these predictors, the association of abnormal spatial QRS-T angles with all fatal study endpoints remained strong, but the association with non-fatal cardiac events disappeared. Computation of Akaike's information criterion showed that the angle contributed significantly to the prediction of all fatal endpoints by classical cardiovascular and ECG predictors. CONCLUSION: The spatial QRS-T angle is a strong and independent predictor of cardiac mortality in the elderly. It is stronger than any of the classical cardiovascular risk factors and ECG risk indicators and provides additional value to them in predicting fatal cardiac events.

The value of C-reactive protein in cardiovascular risk prediction: the Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic studies have shown that C-reactive protein (CRP) is a risk factor for coronary heart disease. Whether routine measurement of CRP has a role in the prediction of future coronary disease in everyday clinical practice has not yet been investigated. METHODS: Within the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study of 7983 men and women 55 years and older, we conducted a nested case-control study to investigate the value of CRP in coronary disease prediction. Data are based on 157 participants who experienced a myocardial infarction during follow-up and 500 randomly selected controls. High-sensitivity CRP and traditional cardiovascular risk factors were measured at baseline. RESULTS: The age- and sex-adjusted relative risk of myocardial infarction for subjects in the highest quartile of the population distribution of CRP compared with the lowest quartile was 2.0 (95% confidence interval, 1.1-3.4). After additional adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, the increase in risk largely disappeared (odds ratio, 1.2; 95% confidence interval, 0.6-2.2). Adding CRP to a coronary disease risk function based on risk factors that are routinely assessed in clinical practice or to the Framingham risk function did not improve the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of these risk functions. Sensitivity and specificity of both risk functions, computed after dichotomizing the estimated disease probabilities using prespecified cutoff points, hardly improved when CRP was added. CONCLUSION: Measurement of CRP in elderly people has no additional value in coronary disease risk prediction when traditional cardiovascular risk factors are known.

Repeated nitrate prescriptions as a potential marker for angina pectoris. A comparison with medical information from the Rotterdam Study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine whether pharmacy records of nitrate prescriptions could be used as a marker of angina pectoris. METHOD: This study was conducted within the Rotterdam Study, a prospective follow-up study which started in 1991 and included 7983 elderly subjects. During follow-up, 1601 subjects filled a first prescription for a nitrate and later filled at least one other prescription for nitrates according to pharmacy records. After excluding subjects who started using nitrates in 1991 and who had less than one year of medication history, we took a random sample of 78 subjects (10%). We studied discharge and outpatient cardiologist letters and files from general practitioners for additional information on angina pectoris in these subjects, and allocated patients to one of three categories according to the possibility of the initial diagnosis of angina being correct. RESULTS: From the random sample of 78, additional information was available on 75 subjects. Definite angina pectoris was present in 33, probable angina pectoris in 18, and possible angina pectoris in 19 subjects. Five subjects had no angina pectoris. Therefore, 93% had at least a possible diagnosis while 68% had at least a probable diagnosis of angina pectoris. The positive predictive value of 2 nitrate prescriptions of which at least one was for rescue therapy was 94%. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the use of more than one nitrate prescription can be used as a marker for angina pectoris. This marker may be useful in epidemiological studies.

Atrial fibrillation and the prothrombotic state in the elderly: the Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major cause of stroke among the elderly. Evidence for a prothrombotic state in AF is controversial, and there is a lack of studies among the elderly. We studied the relationships between AF and 3 prothrombotic plasma markers-von Willebrand factor (vWf; a marker of endothelial damage/dysfunction), soluble P-selectin (sP-sel; a marker of platelet activation), and fibrinogen-in a matched case-control study nested within a large community-based study of an elderly population. METHODS: We identified 162 elderly participants (mean+/-SD age, 78+/-8 years; 51% male) in the Rotterdam Study with documented AF and matched each case by age and sex to 2 population controls. vWf and sP-sel were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay; fibrinogen was measured with the Clauss method. We used conditional logistic regression analysis to assess the relationships between the markers and AF, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: There were no significant relationships between either fibrinogen (P=0.8) or sP-sel (P=0.6) and AF. However, a positive linear relationship between vWf level and presence of AF remained significant after adjustment for potential confounders among women (odds ratio [OR], 1.17; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.34) per 10-IU/dL increase in vWf but not among men (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.17). CONCLUSIONS: We observed a positive relationship between AF and plasma vWf (or endothelial damage/dysfunction) in our elderly population, which was most apparent among women. Fibrinogen and sP-sel levels were unrelated to AF. The prothrombotic state of AF may be subject to sex differences, but longitudinal studies are needed to determine the relationship between these plasma markers and stroke risk.

C-reactive protein predicts progression of atherosclerosis measured at various sites in the arterial tree: the Rotterdam Study.

UNLABELLED: Background and Purpose- C-reactive protein (CRP) predicts myocardial infarction and stroke. Its role as a predictor of the progression of subclinical atherosclerosis is not yet known. We investigated whether CRP predicts progression of atherosclerosis measured at various sites in the arterial tree. METHODS: CRP levels were measured in a random sample of 773 subjects >/=55 years of age who were participating in the Rotterdam Study. Subclinical atherosclerosis was assessed at various sites at 2 points in time, with a mean duration between measurements of 6.5 years. RESULTS: After adjustment for age, sex, and smoking habits, odds ratios (ORs) associated with CRP levels in the highest compared with the lowest quartile were increased for progression of carotid (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1 to 3.3), aortic (OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.0 to 3.0), iliac (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.2 to 3.3), and lower extremity (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.0 to 3.7) atherosclerosis. The OR for generalized progression of atherosclerosis as indicated by a composite progression score was 4.5 (95% CI, 2.3 to 8.5). Except for aortic atherosclerosis, these estimates hardly changed after additional adjustment for multiple cardiovascular risk factors. In addition, ORs for progression of atherosclerosis associated with high CRP levels were as high as those associated with the traditional cardiovascular risk factors high cholesterol, hypertension, and smoking. Geometric mean levels of CRP increased with the total number of sites showing progression of atherosclerosis (P=0.002 for trend). CONCLUSIONS: CRP predicts progression of atherosclerosis measured at various sites in the arterial tree.

Inverse association of tea and flavonoid intakes with incident myocardial infarction: the Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND: Dietary flavonoids may protect against cardiovascular disease, but evidence is still conflicting. Tea is the major source of flavonoids in Western populations. OBJECTIVE: The association of tea and flavonoid intake with incident myocardial infarction was examined in the general Dutch population. DESIGN: A longitudinal analysis was performed with the use of data from the Rotterdam Study-a population-based study of men and women aged >or=55 y. Diet was assessed at baseline (1990-1993) with a validated semiquantitative food-frequency questionnaire. The analysis included 4807 subjects with no history of myocardial infarction, who were followed until 31 December 1997. Data were analyzed in a Cox regression model, with adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, pack-years of cigarette smoking, education level, and daily intakes of alcohol, coffee, polyunsaturated fat, saturated fat, fiber, vitamin E, and total energy. RESULTS: During 5.6 y of follow-up, a total of 146 first myocardial infarctions occurred, 30 of which were fatal. The relative risk (RR) of incident myocardial infarction was lower in tea drinkers with a daily intake >375 mL (RR: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.33, 0.98) than in nontea drinkers. The inverse association with tea drinking was stronger for fatal events (0.30; 0.09, 0.94) than for nonfatal events (0.68; 0.37, 1.26). The intake of dietary flavonoids (quercetin + kaempferol + myricetin) was significantly inversely associated only with fatal myocardial infarction (0.35; 0.13, 0.98) in upper compared with lower tertiles of intake. CONCLUSIONS: An increased intake of tea and flavonoids may contribute to the primary prevention of ischemic heart disease.

Stroke is associated with coronary calcification as detected by electron-beam CT: the Rotterdam Coronary Calcification Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Coronary calcification as detected by electron-beam CT measures the atherosclerotic plaque burden and has been reported to predict coronary events. Because atherosclerosis is a generalized process, coronary calcification may also be associated with manifest atherosclerotic disease at other sites of the vascular tree. We examined whether coronary calcification as detected by electron-beam CT is related to the presence of stroke. METHODS: From 1997 onward, subjects were invited to participate in the prospective Rotterdam Coronary Calcification Study and undergo electron-beam CT to detect coronary calcification. The study was embedded in the population-based Rotterdam Study. Calcifications were quantified in a calcium score according to Agatston's method. Calcium scores were available for 2013 subjects (mean age [SD], 71 [5.7] years). Fifty subjects had experienced stroke before scanning. RESULTS: Subjects were 2 times more likely to have experienced stroke when their calcium score was between 101 and 500 (odds ratio [OR], 2.1; 95% CI, 0.9 to 4.7) and 3 times more likely when their calcium score was above 500 (OR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.5 to 7.2), compared with subjects in the lowest calcium score category (0 to 100). Additional adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors did not materially alter the risk estimates. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study, a markedly graded association was found between coronary calcification and stroke. The results suggest that coronary calcification as detected by electron-beam CT may be useful to identify subjects at high risk of stroke.