Coalescence modeling of intrainfection Bacillus anthracis populations allows estimation of infection parameters in wild populations.

Bacillus anthracis, the etiological agent of anthrax, is a well-established model organism. For B. anthracis and most other infectious diseases, knowledge regarding transmission and infection parameters in natural systems, in large part, comprises data gathered from closely controlled laboratory experiments. Fatal, natural anthrax infections transmit the bacterium through new host-pathogen contacts at carcass sites, which can occur years after death of the previous host. For the period between contact and death, all of our knowledge is based upon experimental data from domestic livestock and laboratory animals. Here we use a noninvasive method to explore the dynamics of anthrax infections, by evaluating the terminal diversity of B. anthracis in anthrax carcasses. We present an application of population genetics theory, specifically, coalescence modeling, to intrainfection populations of B. anthracis to derive estimates for the duration of the acute phase of the infection and effective population size converted to the number of colony-forming units establishing infection in wild plains zebra (Equus quagga). Founding populations are small, a few colony-forming units, and infections are rapid, lasting roughly between 1 d and 3 d in the wild. Our results closely reflect experimental data, showing that small founding populations progress acutely, killing the host within days. We believe this method is amendable to other bacterial diseases from wild, domestic, and human systems.

Predicting the Geographic Distribution of the Bacillus anthracis A1.a/Western North American Sub-Lineage for the Continental United States: New Outbreaks, New Genotypes, and New Climate Data.

Bacillus anthracis, the causative pathogen of anthrax, is a spore-forming, environmentally maintained bacterium that continues to be a veterinary health problem with outbreaks occurring primarily in wildlife and livestock. Globally, the genetic populations of B. anthracis include multiple lineages, and each may have different ecological requirements and geographical distributions. It is, therefore, essential to identify environmental associations within lineages to predict geographical distributions and risk areas with improved accuracy. Here, we model the ecological niche and predict the geography of the most widespread sublineage of B. anthracis in the continental United States using updated MERRA-derived (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications; the NASA atmospheric data reanalysis of satellite information with multiple data products) bioclimate variables (i.e., MERRAclim data) and updated soil variables. We filter the occurrence data associated with the A1.a/Western North American sub-lineage of B. anthracis from historical anthrax outbreaks using the multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat system. In addition, we also incorporate recent cases associated with B. anthracis A1.a sub-lineage from 2008 to 2012 in Montana, Colorado, and Texas. Our results provide the predicted distribution of the A1.a sub-lineage of B. anthracis for the United States with better predictive accuracy and higher spatial resolution than previous estimates. Our prediction serves as an improved disease risk map to better inform anthrax surveillance and control in the United States, particularly the Dakotas and Montana where this sub-lineage is persistent.

Lethal exposure: An integrated approach to pathogen transmission via environmental reservoirs.

To mitigate the effects of zoonotic diseases on human and animal populations, it is critical to understand what factors alter transmission dynamics. Here we assess the risk of exposure to lethal concentrations of the anthrax bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, for grazing animals in a natural system over time through different transmission mechanisms. We follow pathogen concentrations at anthrax carcass sites and waterholes for five years and estimate infection risk as a function of grass, soil or water intake, age of carcass sites, and the exposure required for a lethal infection. Grazing, not drinking, seems the dominant transmission route, and transmission is more probable from grazing at carcass sites 1-2 years of age. Unlike most studies of virulent pathogens that are conducted under controlled conditions for extrapolation to real situations, we evaluate exposure risk under field conditions to estimate the probability of a lethal dose, showing that not all reservoirs with detectable pathogens are significant transmission pathways.

Spatio-temporal patterns of an anthrax outbreak in white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginanus, and associated genetic diversity of Bacillus anthracis.

BACKGROUND: Anthrax, a soil-borne zoonosis caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is enzootic in areas of North America with frequent outbreaks in west Texas. Despite a long history of study, pathogen transmission during natural outbreaks remains poorly understood. Here we combined case-level spatio-temporal analysis and high resolution genotyping to investigate anthrax transmission dynamics. Carcass locations from a single white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginanus, outbreak were analyzed for spatial clustering using K-function analysis and directionality with trend surface analysis and the direction test. RESULTS: The directionalities were compared to results of high resolution genotyping. The results of the spatial clustering analyses, combined with deer movement data, suggest anthrax transmission events occur within limited spatial areas, with carcass locations occurring within the activity space of adjacent cases. The directionality of the outbreak paralleled adjacent dry river beds. Isolates from the outbreak were represented by a single genotype based on multiple locus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA); four sub-genotypes were identified using single nucleotide repeat (SNR) analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Areas of high transmission agreed spatially with areas of higher SNR genetic diversity; however, SNRs did not provide clear evidence of linear transmission. Overlap of case home ranges provides spatial and temporal support for localized transmission, which may include the role of necrophagous or hematophagous flies in outbreaks in this region. These results emphasize the need for active surveillance and prompt cleanup of anthrax carcasses to control anthrax both during outbreaks and between seasons.

Bacillus anthracis Diversity and Geographic Potential across Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad: Further Support of a Novel West African Lineage.

Zoonoses, diseases affecting both humans and animals, can exert tremendous pressures on human and veterinary health systems, particularly in resource limited countries. Anthrax is one such zoonosis of concern and is a disease requiring greater public health attention in Nigeria. Here we describe the genetic diversity of Bacillus anthracis in Nigeria and compare it to Chad, Cameroon and a broader global dataset based on the multiple locus variable number tandem repeat (MLVA-25) genetic typing system. Nigerian B. anthracis isolates had identical MLVA genotypes and could only be resolved by measuring highly mutable single nucleotide repeats (SNRs). The Nigerian MLVA genotype was identical or highly genetically similar to those in the neighboring countries, confirming the strains belong to this unique West African lineage. Interestingly, sequence data from a Nigerian isolate shares the anthrose deficient genotypes previously described for strains in this region, which may be associated with vaccine evasion. Strains in this study were isolated over six decades, indicating a high level of temporal strain stability regionally. Ecological niche models were used to predict the geographic distribution of the pathogen for all three countries. We describe a west-east habitat corridor through northern Nigeria extending into Chad and Cameroon. Ecological niche models and genetic results show B. anthracis to be ecologically established in Nigeria. These findings expand our understanding of the global B. anthracis population structure and can guide regional anthrax surveillance and control planning.

The necrophagous fly anthrax transmission pathway: empirical and genetic evidence from wildlife epizootics.

Early studies confirmed Bacillus anthracis in emesis and feces of flies under laboratory conditions, but there is little empirical field evidence supporting the roles of flies in anthrax transmission. We collected samples during outbreaks of anthrax affecting livestock and native and exotic wildlife on two ranches in West Texas (2009-2010). Sampling included animal carcasses, maggots, adult flies feeding on or within several meters of carcasses, and leaves from surrounding vegetation. Microbiology and PCR were used to detect B. anthracis in the samples. Viable B. anthracis and/or PCR-positive results were obtained from all represented sample types. Genetic analysis of B. anthracis samples using multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) confirmed that each ranch represented a distinct genetic lineage. Within each ranch, we detected the same genotype of B. anthracis from carcasses, maggots, and adult flies. The results of this study provide evidence supporting a transmission cycle in which blowflies contaminate vegetation near carcasses that may then infect additional browsing animals during anthrax outbreaks in the shrubland environment of West Texas.

Ecological niche modeling of Bacillus anthracis on three continents: evidence for genetic-ecological divergence?

We modeled the ecological niche of a globally successful Bacillus anthracis sublineage in the United States, Italy and Kazakhstan to better understand the geographic distribution of anthrax and potential associations between regional populations and ecology. Country-specific ecological-niche models were developed and reciprocally transferred to the other countries to determine if pathogen presence could be accurately predicted on novel landscapes. Native models accurately predicted endemic areas within each country, but transferred models failed to predict known occurrences in the outside countries. While the effects of variable selection and limitations of the genetic data should be considered, results suggest differing ecological associations for the B. anthracis populations within each country and may reflect niche specialization within the sublineage. Our findings provide guidance for developing accurate ecological niche models for this pathogen; models should be developed regionally, on the native landscape, and with consideration to population genetics. Further genomic analysis will improve our understanding of the genetic-ecological dynamics of B. anthracis across these countries and may lead to more refined predictive models for surveillance and proactive vaccination programs. Further studies should evaluate the impact of variable selection of native and transferred models.

Ecological niche modelling of the Bacillus anthracis A1.a sub-lineage in Kazakhstan.

BACKGROUND: Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax, is a globally distributed zoonotic pathogen that continues to be a veterinary and human health problem in Central Asia. We used a database of anthrax outbreak locations in Kazakhstan and a subset of genotyped isolates to model the geographic distribution and ecological associations of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan. The aims of the study were to test the influence of soil variables on a previous ecological niche based prediction of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan and to determine if a single sub-lineage of B. anthracis occupies a unique ecological niche. RESULTS: The addition of soil variables to the previously developed ecological niche model did not appreciably alter the limits of the predicted geographic or ecological distribution of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan. The A1.a experiment predicted the sub-lineage to be present over a larger geographic area than did the outbreak based experiment containing multiple lineages. Within the geographic area predicted to be suitable for B. anthracis by all ten best subset models, the A1.a sub-lineage was associated with a wider range of ecological tolerances than the outbreak-soil experiment. Analysis of rule types showed that logit rules predominate in the outbreak-soil experiment and range rules in the A1.a sub-lineage experiment. Random sub-setting of locality points suggests that models of B. anthracis distribution may be sensitive to sample size. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis supports careful consideration of the taxonomic resolution of data used to create ecological niche models. Further investigations into the environmental affinities of individual lineages and sub-lineages of B. anthracis will be useful in understanding the ecology of the disease at large and small scales. With model based predictions serving as approximations of disease risk, these efforts will improve the efficacy of public health interventions for anthrax prevention and control.

Bacillus anthracis comparative genome analysis in support of the Amerithrax investigation.

Before the anthrax letter attacks of 2001, the developing field of microbial forensics relied on microbial genotyping schemes based on a small portion of a genome sequence. Amerithrax, the investigation into the anthrax letter attacks, applied high-resolution whole-genome sequencing and comparative genomics to identify key genetic features of the letters' Bacillus anthracis Ames strain. During systematic microbiological analysis of the spore material from the letters, we identified a number of morphological variants based on phenotypic characteristics and the ability to sporulate. The genomes of these morphological variants were sequenced and compared with that of the B. anthracis Ames ancestor, the progenitor of all B. anthracis Ames strains. Through comparative genomics, we identified four distinct loci with verifiable genetic mutations. Three of the four mutations could be directly linked to sporulation pathways in B. anthracis and more specifically to the regulation of the phosphorylation state of Spo0F, a key regulatory protein in the initiation of the sporulation cascade, thus linking phenotype to genotype. None of these variant genotypes were identified in single-colony environmental B. anthracis Ames isolates associated with the investigation. These genotypes were identified only in B. anthracis morphotypes isolated from the letters, indicating that the variants were not prevalent in the environment, not even the environments associated with the investigation. This study demonstrates the forensic value of systematic microbiological analysis combined with whole-genome sequencing and comparative genomics.

Historical distribution and molecular diversity of Bacillus anthracis, Kazakhstan.

To map the distribution of anthrax outbreaks and strain subtypes in Kazakhstan during 1937-2005, we combined geographic information system technology and genetic analysis by using archived cultures and data. Biochemical and genetic tests confirmed the identity of 93 archived cultures in the Kazakhstan National Culture Collection as Bacillus anthracis. Multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis genotyping identified 12 genotypes. Cluster analysis comparing these genotypes with previously published genotypes indicated that most (n = 78) isolates belonged to the previously described A1.a genetic cluster, 6 isolates belonged to the A3.b cluster, and 2 belonged to the A4 cluster. Two genotypes in the collection appeared to represent novel genetic sublineages; 1 of these isolates was from Krygystan. Our data provide a description of the historical, geographic, and genetic diversity of B. anthracis in this Central Asian region.

Comparison of two multiple-locus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis methods for molecular strain typing of human Brucella melitensis isolates from the Middle East.

Brucella species are highly monomorphic, with minimal genetic variation among species, hindering the development of reliable subtyping tools for epidemiologic and phylogenetic analyses. Our objective was to compare two distinct multiple-locus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis (MLVA) subtyping methods on a collection of 101 Brucella melitensis isolates from sporadic human cases of brucellosis in Egypt (n = 83), Qatar (n = 17), and Libya (n = 1). A gel-based MLVA technique, MLVA-15(IGM), was compared to an automated capillary electrophoresis-based method, MLVA-15(NAU), with each MLVA scheme examining a unique set of variable-number tandem repeats. Both the MLVA(IGM) and MLVA(NAU) methods were highly discriminatory, resolving 99 and 101 distinct genotypes, respectively, and were able to largely separate genotypes from Egypt and Qatar. The MLVA-15(NAU) scheme presented higher strain-to-strain diversity in our test population than that observed with the MLVA-15(IGM) assay. Both schemes were able to genetically correlate some strains originating from the same hospital or region within a country. In addition to comparing the genotyping abilities of these two schemes, we also compared the usability, limitations, and advantages of the two MLVA systems and their applications in the epidemiological genotyping of human B. melitensis strains.

Single nucleotide polymorphism typing of Bacillus anthracis from Sverdlovsk tissue.

A small number of conserved canonical single nucleotide polymorphisms (canSNP) that define major phylogenetic branches for Bacillus anthracis were used to place a Sverdlovsk patient's B. anthracis genotype into 1 of 12 subgroups. Reconstruction of the pagA gene also showed a unique SNP that defines a new lineage for B. anthracis.

Global genetic population structure of Bacillus anthracis.

Anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a disease of historical and current importance that is found throughout the world. The basis of its historical transmission is anecdotal and its true global population structure has remained largely cryptic. Seven diverse B. anthracis strains were whole-genome sequenced to identify rare single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), followed by phylogenetic reconstruction of these characters onto an evolutionary model. This analysis identified SNPs that define the major clonal lineages within the species. These SNPs, in concert with 15 variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) markers, were used to subtype a collection of 1,033 B. anthracis isolates from 42 countries to create an extensive genotype data set. These analyses subdivided the isolates into three previously recognized major lineages (A, B, and C), with further subdivision into 12 clonal sub-lineages or sub-groups and, finally, 221 unique MLVA15 genotypes. This rare genomic variation was used to document the evolutionary progression of B. anthracis and to establish global patterns of diversity. Isolates in the A lineage are widely dispersed globally, whereas the B and C lineages occur on more restricted spatial scales. Molecular clock models based upon genome-wide synonymous substitutions indicate there was a massive radiation of the A lineage that occurred in the mid-Holocene (3,064-6,127 ybp). On more recent temporal scales, the global population structure of B. anthracis reflects colonial-era importation of specific genotypes from the Old World into the New World, as well as the repeated industrial importation of diverse genotypes into developed countries via spore-contaminated animal products. These findings indicate humans have played an important role in the evolution of anthrax by increasing the proliferation and dispersal of this now global disease. Finally, the value of global genotypic analysis for investigating bioterrorist-mediated outbreaks of anthrax is demonstrated.

Strain-specific single-nucleotide polymorphism assays for the Bacillus anthracis Ames strain.

Highly precise diagnostics and forensic assays can be developed through a combination of evolutionary analysis and the exhaustive examination of genomic sequences. In Bacillus anthracis, whole-genome sequencing efforts revealed ca. 3,500 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) among eight different strains and evolutionary analysis provides the identification of canonical SNPs. We have previously shown that SNPs are highly evolutionarily stable, and the clonal nature of B. anthracis makes them ideal signatures for subtyping this pathogen. Here we identified SNPs that define the lineage of B. anthracis that contains the Ames strain, the strain used in the 2001 bioterrorist attacks in the United States. Sequencing and real-time PCR were used to validate these SNPs across B. anthracis strains, including (i) 88 globally and genetically diverse isolates; (ii) isolates that were shown to be genetic relatives of the Ames strain by multiple-locus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA); and (iii) several different lab stocks of the Ames strain, including a clinical isolate from the 2001 letter attack. Six SNPs were found to be highly specific for the Ames strain; four on the chromosome, one on the pX01 plasmid, and one on the pX02 plasmid. All six SNPs differentiated the B. anthracis Ames strain from the 88 unique B. anthracis strains, while five of the six separated Ames from its close genetic relatives. The use of these SNPs coupled with real-time PCR allows specific and sensitive (<100 fg of template DNA) identification of the Ames strain. This evolutionary and genomics-based approach provides an effective means for the discovery of strain-specific SNPs in B. anthracis.

Antibiotic susceptibility and molecular diversity of Bacillus anthracis strains in Chad: detection of a new phylogenetic subgroup.

We genotyped 15 Bacillus anthracis isolates from Chad, Africa, using multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis and three additional direct-repeat markers. We identified two unique genotypes that represent a novel genetic lineage in the A cluster. Chadian isolates were susceptible to 11 antibiotics and free of 94 antibiotic resistance genes.

Use of a real-time PCR TaqMan assay for rapid identification and differentiation of Burkholderia pseudomallei and Burkholderia mallei.

A TaqMan allelic-discrimination assay designed around a synonymous single-nucleotide polymorphism was used to genotype Burkholderia pseudomallei and Burkholderia mallei isolates. The assay rapidly identifies and discriminates between these two highly pathogenic bacteria and does not cross-react with genetic near neighbors, such as Burkholderia thailandensis and Burkholderia cepacia.

Molecular diversity of Bacillus anthracis in Italy.

We used multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) to type 64 Bacillus anthracis isolates from outbreaks that have occurred during the past 40 years in Italy. MLVA of the 64 isolates revealed 10 unique genotypes; 9 of these genotypes and the majority of isolates (63/64) belonged to the previously described genetic cluster A1.a. Within the A1.a isolates, two previously described genotypes (G1 and G3), which differ by a single mutation in the pX01 locus, account for the majority of isolates in the country (53/63). The low diversity of B. anthracis genotypes in Italy suggests a single, dominant historical introduction, followed by limited localized differentiation.

Specific detection of bacillus anthracis using a TaqMan mismatch amplification mutation assay.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are increasingly recognized as important diagnostic markers for the detection and differentiation of Bacillus anthracis. The use of SNP markers for identifying B. anthracis DNA in environmental samples containing genetically similar bacteria requires the ability to amplify and detect DNA with single nucleotide specificity. We designed a TaqMan mismatch amplification mutation assay (TaqMAMA) around a SNP in the plcR gene of B. anthracis. The assay permits specific, low-level detection (25 fg DNA) of this B. anthracis-specific SNP, even in the presence of environmental DNA extracts containing a 20,000-fold excess of the alternate allele. We anticipate that the ability to selectively amplify and detect low copy number DNAs with single nucleotide specificity will represent a valuable tool in the arena of biodefense and microbial forensics.