RESUMO
This study identified risk factors for developing leprosy through yearly incidence rates in five island populations. Personal factors, like age, sex, household size and the presence of M.leprae-specific antibodies as well as contact were studied. Of the 94 index patients (patients diagnosed in 2000) 43 (46%) were classified as multibacillary (MB), 17 (19%) were seropositive and 6 (7%) presented M.leprae DNA in nasal swabs as determined by polumerase chain reaction (PCR). All PCR positive patients were also seropositive. Forty-four of the 4903 persons initially without symptoms of leprosy developed leprosy in almost four years follow-up, giving an incidence rate of 2.98 per 1000 person-years. Men had a 2.2 times higher risk (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.2-4.1) to developd leprosy than women. Persons living in households of more than 7 household members. Persons who were seropositive in 2000 had a 3.7 times higher risk (95% CI:1.1-12.4) than seronegative persons. Household contacts of MB patients had an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 4.6 (95% CI:1.6-12.9) and household contacts of PCR positive patients an aHR of 9.36 (95% CI: 2.5-34.9) compared to non-contacts. Patients with PCR positive nasal swabs, suggesting nasal excretion of M.leprae, are probably the patients with the highest transmission patential. Since all index patients who were PCR positive were also seropositive, serology semms an adequate tool to identify these patients. Preventing seropositive persons to become seropositive patients and thus the main source of infection may break the chain of transmission
