User-centred design for machine learning in health care: a case study from care management.

OBJECTIVES: Few machine learning (ML) models are successfully deployed in clinical practice. One of the common pitfalls across the field is inappropriate problem formulation: designing ML to fit the data rather than to address a real-world clinical pain point. METHODS: We introduce a practical toolkit for user-centred design consisting of four questions covering: (1) solvable pain points, (2) the unique value of ML (eg, automation and augmentation), (3) the actionability pathway and (4) the model's reward function. This toolkit was implemented in a series of six participatory design workshops with care managers in an academic medical centre. RESULTS: Pain points amenable to ML solutions included outpatient risk stratification and risk factor identification. The endpoint definitions, triggering frequency and evaluation metrics of the proposed risk scoring model were directly influenced by care manager workflows and real-world constraints. CONCLUSIONS: Integrating user-centred design early in the ML life cycle is key for configuring models in a clinically actionable way. This toolkit can guide problem selection and influence choices about the technical setup of the ML problem.

Predicting Inpatient Medication Orders From Electronic Health Record Data.

In a general inpatient population, we predicted patient-specific medication orders based on structured information in the electronic health record (EHR). Data on over three million medication orders from an academic medical center were used to train two machine-learning models: A deep learning sequence model and a logistic regression model. Both were compared with a baseline that ranked the most frequently ordered medications based on a patient's discharge hospital service and amount of time since admission. Models were trained to predict from 990 possible medications at the time of order entry. Fifty-five percent of medications ordered by physicians were ranked in the sequence model's top-10 predictions (logistic model: 49%) and 75% ranked in the top-25 (logistic model: 69%). Ninety-three percent of the sequence model's top-10 prediction sets contained at least one medication that physicians ordered within the next day. These findings demonstrate that medication orders can be predicted from information present in the EHR.