Attention-Based Deep Recurrent Neural Network to Forecast the Temperature Behavior of an Electric Arc Furnace Side-Wall.

Structural health monitoring (SHM) in an electric arc furnace is performed in several ways. It depends on the kind of element or variable to monitor. For instance, the lining of these furnaces is made of refractory materials that can be worn out over time. Therefore, monitoring the temperatures on the walls and the cooling elements of the furnace is essential for correct structural monitoring. In this work, a multivariate time series temperature prediction was performed through a deep learning approach. To take advantage of data from the last 5 years while not neglecting the initial parts of the sequence in the oldest years, an attention mechanism was used to model time series forecasting using deep learning. The attention mechanism was built on the foundation of the encoder-decoder approach in neural networks. Thus, with the use of an attention mechanism, the long-term dependency of the temperature predictions in a furnace was improved. A warm-up period in the training process of the neural network was implemented. The results of the attention-based mechanism were compared with the use of recurrent neural network architectures to deal with time series data, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). The results of the Average Root Mean Square Error (ARMSE) obtained with the attention-based mechanism were the lowest. Finally, a variable importance study was performed to identify the best variables to train the model.

Temperature Prediction Using Multivariate Time Series Deep Learning in the Lining of an Electric Arc Furnace for Ferronickel Production.

The analysis of data from sensors in structures subjected to extreme conditions such as the ones used in smelting processes is a great decision tool that allows knowing the behavior of the structure under different operational conditions. In this industry, the furnaces and the different elements are fully instrumented, including sensors to measure variables such as temperature, pressure, level, flow, power, electrode positions, among others. From the point of view of engineering and data analytics, this quantity of data presents an opportunity to understand the operation of the system under normal conditions or to explore new ways of operation by using information from models provided by using deep learning approaches. Although some approaches have been developed with application to this industry, it is still an open research area. As a contribution, this paper presents an applied deep learning temperature prediction model for a 75 MW electric arc furnace, which is used for ferronickel production. In general, the methodology proposed considers two steps: first, a data cleaning process to increase the quality of the data, eliminating both redundant information as well as atypical and unusual data, and second, a multivariate time series deep learning model to predict the temperatures in the furnace lining. The developed deep learning model is a sequential one based on GRU (gated recurrent unit) layer plus a dense layer. The GRU + Dense model achieved an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.19 °C in the test set of 16 different thermocouples radially distributed on the furnace.