The impact of COVID-19 and national pandemic responses on health service utilisation in seven low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted health services worldwide, which may have led to increased mortality and secondary disease outbreaks. Disruptions vary by patient population, geographic area, and service. While many reasons have been put forward to explain disruptions, few studies have empirically investigated their causes. OBJECTIVE: We quantify disruptions to outpatient services, facility-based deliveries, and family planning in seven low- and middle-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and quantify relationships between disruptions and the intensity of national pandemic responses. METHODS: We leveraged routine data from 104 Partners In Health-supported facilities from January 2016 to December 2021. We first quantified COVID-19-related disruptions in each country by month using negative binomial time series models. We then modelled the relationship between disruptions and the intensity of national pandemic responses, as measured by the stringency index from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. RESULTS: For all the studied countries, we observed at least one month with a significant decline in outpatient visits during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also observed significant cumulative drops in outpatient visits across all months in Lesotho, Liberia, Malawi, Rwanda, and Sierra Leone. A significant cumulative decrease in facility-based deliveries was observed in Haiti, Lesotho, Mexico, and Sierra Leone. No country had significant cumulative drops in family planning visits. For a 10-unit increase in the average monthly stringency index, the proportion deviation in monthly facility outpatient visits compared to expected fell by 3.9% (95% CI: -5.1%, -1.6%). No relationship between stringency of pandemic responses and utilisation was observed for facility-based deliveries or family planning. CONCLUSIONS: Context-specific strategies show the ability of health systems to sustain essential health services during the pandemic. The link between pandemic responses and healthcare utilisation can inform purposeful strategies to ensure communities have access to care and provide lessons for promoting the utilisation of health services elsewhere.

Childhood immunization during the COVID-19 pandemic: experiences in Haiti, Lesotho, Liberia and Malawi.

OBJECTIVE: To examine changes in vaccination of children younger than 1 year during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (March 2020-August 2021) in Haiti, Lesotho, Liberia and Malawi. METHODS: We used data from health management information systems on vaccination of children aged 12 months or younger in districts supported by Partners In Health. We used data from January 2016 to February 2020 and a linear model with negative binomial distribution to estimate the expected immunization counts for March 2020-August 2021 with 95% prediction intervals, assuming no pandemic. We compared these expected levels with observed values and estimated the immunization deficits or excesses during the pandemic months. FINDINGS: Baseline vaccination counts varied substantially by country, with Lesotho having the lowest count and Haiti the highest. We observed declines in vaccination administration early in the COVID-19 pandemic in Haiti, Lesotho and Liberia. Continued declines largely corresponded to high rates of COVID-19 infection and discrete stock-outs. By August 2021, vaccination levels had returned to close to or above expected levels in Haiti, Liberia and Lesotho; in Malawi levels remained below expected. CONCLUSION: Patterns of childhood immunization coverage varied by country over the course of the pandemic, with significantly lower than expected vaccination levels seen in one country during subsequent COVID-19 waves. Governments and health-care stakeholders should monitor vaccine coverage closely and consider interventions, such as community outreach, to avoid or combat the disruptions in childhood vaccination.

Disruptions in maternal health service use during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020: experiences from 37 health facilities in low-income and middle-income countries.

The COVID-19 pandemic has heterogeneously affected use of basic health services worldwide, with disruptions in some countries beginning in the early stages of the emergency in March 2020. These disruptions have occurred on both the supply and demand sides of healthcare, and have often been related to resource shortages to provide care and lower patient turnout associated with mobility restrictions and fear of contracting COVID-19 at facilities. In this paper, we assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the use of maternal health services using a time series modelling approach developed to monitor health service use during the pandemic using routinely collected health information systems data. We focus on data from 37 non-governmental organisation-supported health facilities in Haiti, Lesotho, Liberia, Malawi, Mexico and Sierra Leone. Overall, our analyses indicate significant declines in first antenatal care visits in Haiti (18% drop) and Sierra Leone (32% drop) and facility-based deliveries in all countries except Malawi from March to December 2020. Different strategies were adopted to maintain continuity of maternal health services, including communication campaigns, continuity of community health worker services, human resource capacity building to ensure compliance with international and national guidelines for front-line health workers, adapting spaces for safe distancing and ensuring the availability of personal protective equipment. We employ a local lens, providing prepandemic context and reporting results and strategies by country, to highlight the importance of developing context-specific interventions to design effective mitigation strategies.

Childhood immunization during the COVID-19 pandemic: experiences in Haiti, Lesotho, Liberia and Malawi

Objective: To examine changes in vaccination of children younger than 1 year during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (March 2020-August 2021) in Haiti, Lesotho, Liberia and Malawi. Methods: We used data from health management information systems on vaccination of children aged 12 months or younger in districts supported by Partners In Health. We used data from January 2016 to February 2020 and a linear model with negative binomial distribution to estimate the expected immunization counts for March 2020-August 2021 with 95% prediction intervals, assuming no pandemic. We compared these expected levels with observed values and estimated the immunization deficits or excesses during the pandemic months. Findings: Baseline vaccination counts varied substantially by country, with Lesotho having the lowest count and Haiti the highest. We observed declines in vaccination administration early in the COVID-19 pandemic in Haiti, Lesotho and Liberia. Continued declines largely corresponded to high rates of COVID-19 infection and discrete stock-outs. By August 2021, vaccination levels had returned to close to or above expected levels in Haiti, Liberia and Lesotho; in Malawi levels remained below expected. Conclusion: Patterns of childhood immunization coverage varied by country over the course of the pandemic, with significantly lower than expected vaccination levels seen in one country during subsequent COVID-19 waves. Governments and health-care stakeholders should monitor vaccine coverage closely and consider interventions, such as community outreach, to avoid or combat the disruptions in childhood vaccination.

Syndromic surveillance using monthly aggregate health systems information data: methods with application to COVID-19 in Liberia.

BACKGROUND: Early detection of SARS-CoV-2 circulation is imperative to inform local public health response. However, it has been hindered by limited access to SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic tests and testing infrastructure. In regions with limited testing capacity, routinely collected health data might be leveraged to identify geographical locales experiencing higher than expected rates of COVID-19-associated symptoms for more specific testing activities. METHODS: We developed syndromic surveillance tools to analyse aggregated health facility data on COVID-19-related indicators in seven low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), including Liberia. We used time series models to estimate the expected monthly counts and 95% prediction intervals based on 4 years of previous data. Here, we detail and provide resources for our data preparation procedures, modelling approach and data visualisation tools with application to Liberia. RESULTS: To demonstrate the utility of these methods, we present syndromic surveillance results for acute respiratory infections (ARI) at health facilities in Liberia during the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic (January through August 2020). For each month, we estimated the deviation between the expected and observed number of ARI cases for 325 health facilities and 15 counties to identify potential areas of SARS-CoV-2 circulation. CONCLUSIONS: Syndromic surveillance can be used to monitor health facility catchment areas for spikes in specific symptoms which may indicate SARS-CoV-2 circulation. The developed methods coupled with the existing infrastructure for routine health data systems can be leveraged to monitor a variety of indicators and other infectious diseases with epidemic potential.