Validation of prognostic indices for short term mortality in an incident dialysis population of older adults >75.

RATIONAL AND OBJECTIVE: Prognosis provides critical knowledge for shared decision making between patients and clinicians. While several prognostic indices for mortality in dialysis patients have been developed, their performance among elderly patients initiating dialysis is unknown, despite great need for reliable prognostication in that context. To assess the performance of 6 previously validated prognostic indices to predict 3 and/or 6 months mortality in a cohort of elderly incident dialysis patients. STUDY DESIGN: Validation study of prognostic indices using retrospective cohort data. Indices were compared using the concordance ("c")-statistic, i.e. area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Calibration, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were also calculated. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Incident elderly (age ≥75 years; n = 349) dialysis patients at a tertiary referral center. ESTABLISHED PREDICTORS: Variables for six validated prognostic indices for short term (3 and 6 month) mortality prediction (Foley, NCI, REIN, updated REIN, Thamer, and Wick) were extracted from the electronic medical record. The indices were individually applied as per each index specifications to predict 3- and/or 6-month mortality. RESULTS: In our cohort of 349 patients, mean age was 81.5±4.4 years, 66% were male, and median survival was 351 days. The c-statistic for the risk prediction indices ranged from 0.57 to 0.73. Wick ROC 0.73 (0.68, 0.78) and Foley 0.67 (0.61, 0.73) indices performed best. The Foley index was weakly calibrated with poor overall model fit (p <0.01) and overestimated mortality risk, while the Wick index was relatively well-calibrated but underestimated mortality risk. LIMITATIONS: Small sample size, use of secondary data, need for imputation, homogeneous population. CONCLUSION: Most predictive indices for mortality performed moderately in our incident dialysis population. The Wick and Foley indices were the best performing, but had issues with under and over calibration. More accurate indices for predicting survival in older patients with kidney failure are needed.

Chronic TrkB agonist treatment in old age does not mitigate diaphragm neuromuscular dysfunction.

Previously, we found that brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) signaling through the high-affinity tropomyosin-related kinase receptor subtype B (TrkB) enhances neuromuscular transmission in the diaphragm muscle. However, there is an age-related loss of this effect of BDNF/TrkB signaling that may contribute to diaphragm muscle sarcopenia (atrophy and force loss). We hypothesized that chronic treatment with 7,8-dihydroxyflavone (7,8-DHF), a small molecule BDNF analog and TrkB agonist, will mitigate age-related diaphragm neuromuscular transmission failure and sarcopenia in old mice. Adult male TrkBF616A mice (n = 32) were randomized to the following 6-month treatment groups: vehicle-control, 7,8-DHF, and 7,8-DHF and 1NMPP1 (an inhibitor of TrkB kinase activity in TrkBF616A mice) cotreatment, beginning at 18 months of age. At 24 months of age, diaphragm neuromuscular transmission failure, muscle-specific force, and fiber cross-sectional areas were compared across treatment groups. The results did not support our hypothesis in that chronic 7,8-DHF treatment did not improve diaphragm neuromuscular transmission or mitigate diaphragm muscle sarcopenia. Taken together, these results do not exclude a role for BDNF/TrkB signaling in aging-related changes in the diaphragm muscle, but they do not support the use of 7,8-DHF as a therapeutic agent to mitigate age-related neuromuscular dysfunction.

Analysis of muscle fiber clustering in the diaphragm muscle of sarcopenic mice.

INTRODUCTION: Sarcopenia likely comprises muscle fiber denervation and re-innervation, resulting in clustering of muscle fibers of the same type (classified by myosin heavy chain isoform composition). Development of methodology to quantitatively evaluate clustering of muscle fibers according to fiber type is necessary. METHODS: Fiber type specific immunofluorescence histology was used to quantify fiber clustering in murine diaphragm muscle (n = 15) at ages 6 and 24 months. RESULTS: With age, fiber type clustering is evidenced by fiber type specific changes in distances between fibers, specifically a 14% decrease to the closest fiber for type I and 24% increase for type IIx and/or IIb fibers (P < 0.001). Additionally, a 34% increase to the 3 closest type IIx and/or IIb fibers was found (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This novel method of analyzing fiber type clustering may be useful in examining pathophysiological conditions of motor unit loss in neuromuscular disorders, myopathies, dystrophies, injuries, or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.