Sex differences in health and mortality in Moscow and Denmark.

In high income countries females outlive men, although they generally report worse health, the so-called male-female health-survival paradox. Russia has one of the world's largest sex difference in life expectancy with a male disadvantage of more than 10 years. We compare components of the paradox between Denmark and Moscow by examining sex differences in mortality and several health measures. The Human Mortality Database and the Russian Fertility and Mortality Database were used to examine sex differences in all-cause death rates in Denmark, Russia, and Moscow in 2007-2008. Self-reported health data were obtained from the Study of Middle-Aged Danish Twins (n = 4,314), the Longitudinal Study of Aging Danish Twins (n = 4,731), and the study of Stress, Aging, and Health in Russia (n = 1,800). In both Moscow and Denmark there was a consistent female advantage at ages 55-89 years in survival and a male advantage in self-rated health, physical functioning, and depression symptomatology. Only on cognitive tests males performed similarly to or worse than women. Nevertheless, Muscovite males had more than twice higher mortality at ages 55-69 years compared to Muscovite women, almost double the ratio in Denmark. The present study showed that despite similar directions of sex differences in health and mortality in Moscow and Denmark, the male-female health-survival paradox is very pronounced in Moscow suggesting a stronger sex-specific disconnect between health indicators and mortality among middle-aged and young-old Muscovites.

Genome-wide identity-by-descent sharing among CEPH siblings.

The concept of genetic identity-by-descent (IBD) has markedly advanced our understanding of the genetic similarity among relatives and triggered a number of developments in epidemiological genetics. However, no empirical measure of this relatedness throughout the whole human genome has yet been published. Analyzing highly polymorphic genetic variations from the Centre d'études du polymorphisme humain (CEPH) database, we report the first genome-wide estimation of the mean and variation in IBD sharing among siblings. From 1,522 microsatellite markers spaced at an average of 2.3 cM on 498 sibling pairs, we estimated a mean of 0.4994 and a standard deviation of 0.0395. In order to account for the impact of varying chromosomal lengths and recombination rates, the analysis was also performed at the chromosomal and marker levels and for paternal and maternal DNA separately. Based on the variation, we estimate an "effective number of segregating loci" of around 80 for sibling pairs over the whole genome (i.e., the number of loci that would yield the same standard deviation in IBD sharing if all loci were segregating independently). Finally, we briefly assess the impact of genotyping errors on IBD estimations, compare our results to published theoretical and simulated expectations, and discuss some implications of our findings.

[The remarkable rise in life expectancy and how it will affect medicine]. / Der bemerkenswerte Anstieg der Lebenserwartung und sein Einfluss auf die Medizin.

Life expectancy has increased at a steady pace in industrialized countries over the last 160 years. A slowdown is not evident: Since 1950 the number of people celebrating their 100th birthdays has at least doubled each decade. This increase in survival is the result of economic developments, social improvements and advances in medicine. Although the belief that old-age mortality is intractable remains widespread, life expectancy is not approaching a limit. Rather, the evidence suggests that ageing is plastic and that survival can be extended by various genetic changes and non-genetic interactions. Increases in life expectancy are largely attributed to improvements in old-age survival. It is a reasonable scenario that life expectancy will rise further in coming decades, supported by advances in the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of age-related diseases. If the trend continues, life expectancy in Germany will rise to over 90 years in the first half of this century. Many official forecasts, however, have assumed lower figures which can have severe consequences both for public and private decision making.

Haplotype effects on human survival: logistic regression models applied to unphased genotype data.

Haplotype based linkage disequilibrium (LD) mapping exhibits higher power than the single locus approach because it makes use of the LD information contained in the flanking markers. New statistical methods have been proposed to help to infer haplotype effects on human diseases using multi-locus genotype data collected from unrelated individuals. In this paper, we introduce a statistical procedure for measuring haplotype effects on human survival using the popular logistic regression model with haplotype based parameterizations. By modeling haplotype frequency as a function of age, our model infers haplotype effects by estimating and testing the slope parameters under different genetic mechanisms (multiplicative, dominant, or recessive). In addition, by estimating the sex-specific slope parameters, our model allows the detection of sex-specific haplotype effects or haplotype-sex interactions. As an example, we apply our model to an empirical dataset on a stress related gene, interleukin-6, to look for haplotypes that affect individual survival and for haplotype-sex interactions. We show that our logistic regression based haplotype model can be a helpful tool for researchers interested in the genetics of human aging and longevity.

Assessing genetic association with human survival at multi-allelic loci.

Genetic variation plays an important role in natural selection and population evolution. However, it also presents geneticists interested in aging research with problems in data analysis because of the large number of alleles and their various modes of action. Recently, a new statistical method based on survival analysis (the relative risk model or the RR model) has been introduced to assess gene-longevity associations [Yashin et al. (1999) Am J Hum Genet 65: 1178-1193] which outperforms the traditional gene frequency method. Here we extend the model to deal with polymorphic genes or gene markers. Assuming the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium at birth, we first introduce an allele-based parameterization on gene frequency which helps to cut down the number of frequency parameters to be estimated. We then propose both the genotype and allele-based parameterizations on risk parameters to estimate genotype and allelic relative risks (the GRR and ARR models). While the GRR model allows us to investigate whether the alleles are recessive, dominant or codominant, the ARR model further minimizes the number of parameters to be estimated. As an example, we apply the methods to empirical data on Renin gene polymorphism and longevity. We show that our models can serve as useful tools in searching for important genetic variations implicated in human aging and longevity.

Power of non-parametric linkage analysis in mapping genes contributing to human longevity in long-lived sib-pairs.

This report investigates the power issue in applying the non-parametric linkage analysis of affected sib-pairs (ASP) [Kruglyak and Lander, 1995: Am J Hum Genet 57:439-454] to localize genes that contribute to human longevity using long-lived sib-pairs. Data were simulated by introducing a recently developed statistical model for measuring marker-longevity associations [Yashin et al., 1999: Am J Hum Genet 65:1178-1193], enabling direct power comparison between linkage and association approaches. The non-parametric linkage (NPL) scores estimated in the region harboring the causal allele are evaluated to assess the statistical power for different genetic (allele frequency and risk) and heterogeneity parameters under various sampling schemes (age-cut and sample size). Based on the genotype-specific survival function, we derived a heritability calculation as an overall measurement for the effect of causal genes with different parameter settings so that the power can be compared for different modes (dominant, recessive) of inheritance. Our results show that the ASP approach is a powerful tool in mapping very strong effect genes, both dominant and recessive. To map a rare dominant genetic variation that reduces hazard of death by half, a large sample (above 600 pairs) with at least one extremely long-lived (over age 99) sib in each pair is needed. Again, with large sample size and high age cut-off, the method is able to localize recessive genes with relatively small effects, but the power is very limited in case of a dominant effect. Although the power issue may depend heavily on the true genetic nature in maintaining survival, our study suggests that results from small-scale sib-pair investigations should be referred with caution, given the complexity of human longevity.

Chronological aging-independent replicative life span regulation by Msn2/Msn4 and Sod2 in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

Mutations in RAS2, CYR1, and SCH9 extend the chronological life span in Saccharomyces cerevisiae by activating stress-resistance transcription factors and mitochondrial superoxide dismutase (Sod2). Here we show that mutations in CYR1 and SCH9 also extend the replicative life span of individual yeast mother cells. However, the triple deletion of stress-resistance genes MSN2/MSN4 and RIM15, which causes a major decrease in chronological life span, extends replicative life span. Similarly, the overexpression of superoxide dismutases, which extends chronological survival, shortens the replicative life span and prevents budding in 30-40% of virgin mother cells. These results suggest that stress-resistance transcription factors Msn2/Msn4 negatively regulate budding and the replicative life span in part by increasing SOD2 expression. The role of superoxide dismutases and of other stress-resistance proteins in extending the chronological life span of yeast, worms, and flies indicates that the negative effect of Sod2, Msn2/Msn4/Rim15 on the replicative life span of S. cerevisiae is independent of aging.

Logistic regression models for polymorphic and antagonistic pleiotropic gene action on human aging and longevity.

In this paper, we apply logistic regression models to measure genetic association with human survival for highly polymorphic and pleiotropic genes. By modelling genotype frequency as a function of age, we introduce a logistic regression model with polytomous responses to handle the polymorphic situation. Genotype and allele-based parameterization can be used to investigate the modes of gene action and to reduce the number of parameters, so that the power is increased while the amount of multiple testing minimized. A binomial logistic regression model with fractional polynomials is used to capture the age-dependent or antagonistic pleiotropic effects. The models are applied to HFE genotype data to assess the effects on human longevity by different alleles and to detect if an age-dependent effect exists. Application has shown that these methods can serve as useful tools in searching for important gene variations that contribute to human aging and longevity.

Frequency and heritability of depression symptomatology in the second half of life: evidence from Danish twins over 45.

BACKGROUND: Self-reported depressive symptoms among the elderly have generated considerable interest because they are readily available measures of overall well-being in a population often thought to be at special risk for mental disorder. METHOD: The heritability of depression symptoms was investigated in a sample of 2169 pairs of Danish twins (1033 MZ and 1136 same sex DZ) ranging in age from 45 to over 95. Twins completed an interview assessment that identified symptoms of depression, which were scored on Affective, Somatic and Total scales. RESULTS: Overall heritability estimates (a2) for the Affective (a2 = 0.27, (95% CI 0.22-0.32)). Somatic (a2 = 0.26, (0.21-0.32)), and Total (a2 = 0.29, (0.22-0.34)) scales were all moderate, statistically significant and similar to results from other studies. To assess possible variations in heritability across the wide age span, the sample was stratified into age groups in increments of 10 years. The magnitude of heritable influence did not vary significantly with age or sex. Somatic scale heritability tended to be greater for females than for males, though this difference was not statistically significant. The genetic correlation between the Affective and Somatic scales was 0.71, suggesting substantial common genetic origins. CONCLUSIONS: Though the frequency of self-reported depressive symptoms increased with age in this sample, their heritability did not.

The influences on human longevity by HUMTHO1.STR polymorphism (Tyrosine Hydroxylase gene). A relative risk approach.

A new method based on the recently developed relative risk approach is introduced, and applied to data from Italian centenarian study (965 subjects aged from 13 to 109 years old) for investigating influences on longevity by Tyrosine Hydroxylase (TH) gene variability. The strategic parameterization enables the model to disentangle the various ways by which HUMTHO1.STR alleles (alleles 6, 7, 8, 9, 10*, 10, as defined according to the number of repeats) may contribute in reducing or increasing the hazard of death with different patterns of influences. Among all the alleles, we have found that allele 10* (10 imperfect repeats) shows a remarkable dominant and beneficial effect that reduces the log hazard of death in an additive manner. The results confirm that HUMTHO1.STR polymorphism is involved in the modulation of human longevity.

Measuring the genetic influence in modulating the human life span: gene-environment interaction and the sex-specific genetic effect.

New approaches are needed to explore the different ways in which genes affect the human life span. One needs to assess the genetic effects themselves, as well as gene-environment interactions and sex dependency. In this paper, we present a new model that combines both genotypic and demographic information in the estimation of the genetic influence on life spans. Based on Cox's proportional hazard assumption, the model measures the risks for each gene as well as for gene-environment and gene-sex interactions, while controlling for confounding factors. A two-step MLE is introduced to obtain a non-parametric form of the baseline hazard function. The model is applied to genotypic data from Italian centenarian studies to estimate relative risks of candidate genes, risks due to interactions and initial frequencies of different genes in the population. Results from models that either do or do not take into consideration individual heterogeneity are compared. It is shown that ignoring the existence of heterogeneity can lead to a systematic underestimation of genetic effects and effects due to interactions.

Variations of cardiovascular disease associated genes exhibit sex-dependent influence on human longevity.

This article investigates the relationship between the polymorphic variations in genes associated with cardiovascular disease and longevity in the Danish population. A new procedure that combines both demographic and the individual genetic information in determining the relative risks of the observed genetic variations is applied. The sex-dependent influences can be found by introducing sex-specific population survival and incorporating the risk of gene-sex interaction. Three genetic polymorphisms, angiotensinogen M/T235, blood coagulation factor VII (FVII) R/Q353 and FVII-323ins10, manifest significant influences on survival in males, with reduced hazards of death for carriers of the angiotensinogen M235 allele, the F VII Q353 allele, and the FVII-323P10 allele. The results show that some of these genotypes associated with lower risk of CVD could also reduce the carrier's death rate and contribute to longevity. However, the presence of sex-dependent effects and the fact that major CVD-associated genes failed to impose detrimental influence on longevity lead us to concur that the aging process is highly complicated.

Age-specific demographic profiles of longevity mutants in Caenorhabditis elegans show segmental effects.

Demographic profiles of several single-gene longevity mutants of the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans reveal segmental (age-specific) effects on mortality. The mortality profiles of wild-type worms were examined across multiple replicate cultures containing 100,000 or more nematodes and found to be quite replicable, although clear environmental effects are routinely found. The combined profile of wild type was compared with those of three long-lived mutants to determine how age-specific mortality is altered by mutations in age-1, clk-1, or spe-26. In all four genotypes, death rates fit a two-stage Gompertz model better than a one-stage Gompertz; that is, mortality levels off at later ages. The largest genetic effect on mortality was that of an age-1 mutation, which lowered mortality more than fivefold at most later ages. In contrast, a spe-26 mutant had a tenfold lower mortality until approximately 2 weeks of age but ultimately achieved a higher mortality, whereas clk-1 mutants show slightly higher mortality than wild type during the fertile period, early in life, but ultimately level off at lower mortality. Each mutant thus has a distinctive profile of age-specific mortalities that could suggest the time of action of each gene.

The Danish 1905 cohort: a genetic-epidemiological nationwide survey.

OBJECTIVES: The authors studied nonagenarians, a rapidly growing age group whose cognitive and physical abilities have yet to be investigated systematically. METHODS: All Danes born in 1905 were invited to participate in a home-based 2-hour multidimensional interview, including cognitive and physical performance tests and collection of DNA, carried out by lay interviewers. Population-based registers were used to evaluate representativeness. RESULTS: There were 2,262 participants. A total of 1,632 (72%) gave a DNA sample. Participants and nonparticipants were highly comparable with regard to marital status, institutionalization, and hospitalization patterns, but men and rural area residents were more likely to participate. Six months after the survey began, 7.2% of the participants and 11.8% of the nonparticipants had died. DISCUSSION: Despite the known difficulties of conducting surveys among the extremely old, it was possible to conduct a nationwide survey, including collection of DNA, among more than 2,000 fairly nonselected nonagenarians using lay interviewers.

Functional status and self-rated health in 2,262 nonagenarians: the Danish 1905 Cohort Survey.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the functional capacity and self-rated health of a large cohort of nonagenarians. DESIGN: A cross-sectional survey of all Danes born in 1905 (92-93 years of age), carried out August to October 1998. SETTING: Participants' homes. PARTICIPANTS: Two thousand two hundred and sixty-two nonagenarians, corresponding to a participation rate of 63% (of these, 20% participated by proxy). MEASUREMENTS: Activities of daily living (ADLs) and self-rated health were assessed by interview. Five items from Katz's ADLs (bathing, dressing, transfer, toileting, and eating) were used to construct a three-level five-item ADL scale (not disabled (no disabilities), moderately disabled (1-2 disabilities), severely disabled (3-5 disabilities)). From responses to a more extensive list of questions on ADLs (26 items), we identified scales of strength and agility by means of factor analysis. Furthermore, a 26-item ADL scale was made. Physical performance tests (chair stand, timed walk, lifting a 2.7 kg box, maximum grip-strength, and flexibility tests) were performed among nonproxy responders. RESULTS: According to the five-item ADL scale, 50% of the men and 41% of the women were categorized as not disabled, while 19% and 22%, respectively, were categorized as severely disabled. The five-item ADL scale correlated highly with the 26-item ADL scale (r = 0.83). The ADL scales showed moderate-to-good correlation with each other (r = 0.74-0.83), and with the physical performance tests (r = 0.31-0.58). Only 3.7% of the women and 6.3% of the men walked (normal pace) with a speed of at least 1 meter per second, which is the minimum walking speed required to cross signaled intersections in Denmark. A total of 56% considered their health to be excellent or good. Of the participants, 74% were always or almost always satisfied with their lives, even though only 45% reported that they "felt well enough to do what they wanted." The analyses showed that no single ADL item seemed to be of particular importance for how the participants rated their health. CONCLUSION: The Danish 1905 cohort survey is the largest and the only nationwide survey of a whole birth-cohort of nonagenarians. A total of 2,262 fairly nonselected nonagenarians participated. The level of both self-reported disability and functional limitations measured by physical performance tests among nonagenarians was high. Despite their lower mortality, women were more disabled than men and did not perform as well as men in the physical performance tests. Nevertheless, the majority of the participants considered their health to be good and were satisfied with their lives.

Recent advances in human gene-longevity association studies.

This paper reviews the recent literature on genes and longevity. The influence of genes on human life span has been confirmed in studies of life span correlation between related individuals based on family and twin data. Results from major twin studies indicate that approximately 25% of the variation in life span is genetically determined. Taking advantage of recent developments in molecular biology, researchers are now searching for candidate genes that might have an influence on life span. The data on unrelated individuals emerging from an ever-increasing number of centenarian studies makes this possible. This paper summarizes the rich literature dealing with the various aspects of the influence of genes on individual survival. Common phenomena affecting the development of disease and longevity are discussed. The major methodological difficulty one is confronted with when studying the epidemiology of longevity involves the complexity of the phenomenon, which arises from the polygenic nature of life span and historical mortality change. We discuss this issue and suggest new methodological approaches.

Reproductive potential predicts longevity of female Mediterranean fruitflies.

Reproduction exacts a price in terms of decreased survival. Our analysis of the interplay between age patterns of fecundity and mortality for individual female medflies (Ceratitis capitata) revealed that individual mortality is associated with the time-dynamics of the egg-laying trajectory. In a sample of 531 medflies, we found that each individual has a characteristic rate of decline in egg laying with age. This defines an individual's rate of reproductive exhaustion. This rate was shown to predict subsequent mortality The larger the remaining reproductive potential, the lower the subsequent mortality An increased mortality risk was seen in flies for which egg production declined rapidly early on, irrespective of the level of egg production. Thus, reproductive potential and lifetime are coupled in such a way that those flies which are able to profit most from an extended life span in terms of increased egg output are indeed likely to live longer.

Supercentenarians: slower ageing individuals or senile elderly?

Although the increase in the number of centenarians is well documented today, at least in some countries, this is still not the case for people having reached the age of 110 years or more: the supercentenarians. The supercentenarians emerged in the mid-1960s. Their numbers have regularly increased since the mid-1970s. The current prevalence of known supercentenarians in countries involved in the database is approximately five to six times more than in the mid-1970s. In roughly 20 years the maximum age observed has increased by about 10 years from 112 to 122 years. The annual probability of death at age 110 is as low as 0.52 with the validated data (n=106) or with the exhaustive and validated data (n=73). The probabilities of death stagnate between 110 and 115 years, and all the computed probabilities fall below the ceiling of 0.6. Our results are compatible with the last extrapolations of mortality trajectories using a logistic or a quadratic model.

Lifespan depends on month of birth.

Month of birth influences adult life expectancy at ages 50+. Why? In two countries of the Northern Hemisphere-Austria and Denmark-people born in autumn (October-December) live longer than those born in spring (April-June). Data for Australia show that, in the Southern Hemisphere, the pattern is shifted by half a year. The lifespan pattern of British immigrants to Australia is similar to that of Austrians and Danes and significantly different from that of Australians. These findings are based on population data with more than a million observations and little or no selectivity. The differences in lifespan are independent of the seasonal distribution of deaths and the social differences in the seasonal distribution of births. In the Northern Hemisphere, the excess mortality in the first year of life of infants born in spring does not support the explanation of selective infant survival. Instead, remaining life expectancy at age 50 appears to depend on factors that arise in utero or early in infancy and that increase susceptibility to diseases later in life. This result is consistent with the finding that, at the turn of the last century, infants born in autumn had higher birth weights than those born in other seasons. Furthermore, differences in adult lifespan by month of birth decrease over time and are significantly smaller in more recent cohorts, which benefited from substantial improvements in maternal and infant health.

Cardiovascular mortality in twins and the fetal origins hypothesis.

The intrauterine growth patterns for twins are characterized by normal development during the first two trimesters and reduced growth during the third trimester. According to the fetal origins hypothesis this growth pattern is associated with risk factors for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. We studied cause-specific mortality of 19,986 Danish twin individuals from the birth cohorts 1870-1930 followed from 1952 through 1993. Despite the large sample size and follow-up period we were not able to detect any difference between twins and the general population with regard to all-cause mortality or cardiovascular mortality. Hence, the intrauterine growth retardation experienced by twins does not result in any "fetal programming" of cardiovascular diseases. There is still an important role for twins (and other sibs) to play in the testing of the fetal origins hypothesis, namely in studies of intra-pair differences, which can assess the role of genetic confounding in the association between fetal growth and later health outcome.