Outcome Predictors in First-Ever Ischemic Stroke Patients: A Population-Based Study.

Background. There is scant population-based information regarding predictors of stroke severity and long-term mortality for first-ever ischemic strokes. The aims of this study were to determine the characteristics of patients who initially presented with first-ever ischemic stroke and to identify predictors of severity and long-term mortality. Methods. Data were collected from the population-based Cerebrovascular Aosta Registry. Between 2004 and 2008, 1057 patients with first-ever ischemic stroke were included. Variables analysed included comorbidities, sociodemographic factors, prior-to-stroke risk factors, therapy at admission and pathophysiologic and metabolic factors. Multivariate logistic regression models, Kaplan-Meier estimates, and Cox proportional Hazards model were used to assess predictors. Results. Predictors of stroke severity at admission were very old age (odds ratio [OR] 2.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.75-5.06), female gender (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.21-2.40), atrial fibrillation (OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.72-4.44), low ejection fraction (OR 2.22, CI 95% 1.13-4.32), and cardioembolism (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.36-2.93). Predictors of long-term mortality were very old age (hazard ratio [HR] 2.02, 95% CI 1.65-2.47), prestroke modified Rankin scale 3-5 (HR 1.82; 95% CI 1.46-2.26), Charlson Index ≥2 (HR 1.97; 95% CI 1.62-2.42), atrial fibrillation (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.04-1.98), and stroke severity (HR 3.54, 95% CI 2.87-4.36). Conclusions. Very old age and cardiac embolism risk factors are the independent predictors of stroke severity. Moreover, these factors associated with other comorbid medical conditions influence independently long-term mortality after ischemic stroke.

Epidemiology of stroke in northern Italy: the Cerebrovascular Aosta Registry, 2004-2008.

Our aim was to prospectively ascertain the incidence of first-ever stroke and ischaemic stroke subtypes, mortality, functional outcome and recurrence in northern Italy. We identified all possible cases of stroke (1st January 2004 and 31st December 2008). Multiple overlapping sources were used. Standard definitions for incident cases, pathological types and infarction subtypes were used. Patient characteristics were identified and analysed, case-fatality was ascertained from administrative databases, and outcome was assessed in all surviving patients by modified Rankin Scale. We identified 1,326 incident strokes. The pathological diagnosis was confirmed in 94% of cases. The incidence of first-ever stroke was 80.2 per 100,000 (95% CI 73-87) when adjusted to world population. The incidence of embolic stroke was significantly greater in women than in men (p < 0.001) whereas the incidence of atherothrombotic stroke was significantly greater in men than in women (p < 0.001). The case-fatality of incident strokes was 9.5% at 7 day, 16.1% at 28 day, and 29.9% at 1 year. Case-fatality of ischaemic stroke was lower than that of other pathological types (p < 0.0001). Hypertension was the most important risk factor, and atrial fibrillation was the most common in embolic stroke. Increasing age, female gender and embolic stroke subtypes were associated with an adverse outcome. Data on stroke incidence and case-fatality were similar to those of other high-income countries. However, differences were found in the distribution of risk factors and prognosis across the stroke types and ischaemic stroke subtypes. Gender differences in long-term functional outcomes were significant.

Blood C-reactive protein concentration with ABCD² is a better prognostic tool than ABCD² alone.

BACKGROUND: Increased C-reactive protein (CRP) is a known predictor of vascular events in asymptomatic individuals and stroke patients. Only a few studies included transient ischaemic attack (TIA) patients. We assessed CRP levels in addition to traditional risk factors in a cohort of patients with TIA to examine the relationship of these parameters to the occurrence of ischaemic stroke. METHODS: This is a prospective, longitudinal clinical evaluation of the efficacy of CRP as a prognostic indicator. CRP levels were measured in 194 TIA patients and in 1,024 asymptomatic individuals (recruited from a project on stroke prevention, the PrATO, which was ongoing at the same time in the Aosta Valley). A clinical risk score was determined using the ABCD² score in TIA patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the significance of the markers as predictors. Two models were evaluated: model 1 used the ABCD² score and model 2 used serum CRP levels in addition to the ABCD²) score. The primary outcome was an ischaemic stroke. RESULTS: Within 2 years ischaemic strokes occurred in 33/194 patients. The Cox proportional hazards models, after adjustments for conventional risk factors, identified CRP levels ≥3 mg/l and ABCD² scores ≥4 as independent predictors of stroke. The corresponding AUCs were 0.565 and 0.636, based on model 1 and model 2, respectively; this represented a statistically significant difference (p = 0.043). The absolute integrated discrimination improvement was 0.0249 (p = 0.007) and the relative integrated discrimination improvement was 2.3710. The net benefit became significant from a predicted probability ≥10% and was 0.077 when based on model 1 and 0.087 when based on model 2. CONCLUSIONS: Routine CRP measurements in the acute phase might be a useful tool for identifying TIA patients who are at a higher risk of ischaemic stroke. The additional use of CRP levels for the risk assessment in TIA patients improves risk definition in terms of the ABCD² score alone.

Community-based study of stroke incidence in the Valley of Aosta, Italy. CARe-cerebrovascular Aosta Registry: years 2004-2005.

The purpose of our study was to determine the incidence of stroke, case-fatality rate and disability at 1 year in the Valley of Aosta (Italy) in the years 2004 and 2005. All suspected strokes occurring between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2005, in the resident population of the Valley of Aosta were identified according to the WHO criteria for stroke and included in a stroke registry (Cerebrovascular Aosta Registry, CARe) after revision by a clinical panel. Multiple overlapping sources were used to ascertain the cases. In the study period, 553 incident strokes were registered. A CT scan was performed in 94.2% of cases. The crude annual incidence rate was 223 (95% CI 197-249) per 100,000 inhabitants. After age and sex adjustment to the 'European' population, the stroke incidence rate was 126 (95% CI 106-146). In the 1-year follow-up, only a small number of patients with a first-ever stroke in their life time suffered a new event. Compared with the previous study performed in our region (Valley of Aosta) in 1989, a marked decline in the incidence rate was seen after adjustment to the 'European' population, and the 28-day case-fatality rate declined dramatically between 1989 and 2004-2005.