RESUMO
Background: Altered neurodevelopment is a major clinical sequela of Preterm Birth (PTB) being currently unexplored in-utero. Aims: To study the link between fetal brain functional (FbF) connectivity and preterm birth, using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI). Study design: Prospective single-centre cohort study. Subjects: A sample of 31 singleton pregnancies at 28-34 weeks assigned to a low PTB risk (LR) (n = 19) or high PTB risk (HR) (n = 12) group based on a) the Maternal Frailty Inventory (MaFra) for PTB risk; b) a case-specific PTB risk gradient. Methods: Fetal brain rs-fMRI was performed on 1.5T MRI scanner. First, directed causal relations representing fetal brain functional connectivity measurements were estimated using the Greedy Equivalence Search (GES) algorithm. HR vs. LR group differences were then tested with a novel ad-hoc developed Monte Carlo permutation test. Second, a MaFra-only random forest (RF) was compared against a MaFra-Neuro RF, trained by including also the most important fetal brain functional connections. Third, correlation and regression analyses were performed between MaFra-Neuro class probabilities and i) the GA at birth; ii) PTB risk gradient, iii) perinatal clinical conditions and iv) PTB below 37 weeks. Results: First, fewer fetal brain functional connections were evident in the HR group. Second, the MaFra-Neuro RF improved PTB risk prediction. Third, MaFra-Neuro class probabilities showed a significant association with: i) GA at birth; ii) PTB risk gradient, iii) perinatal clinical conditions and iv) PTB below 37 weeks. Conclusion: Fetal brain functional connectivity is a novel promising predictor of PTB, linked to maternal risk profiles, ahead of birth, and clinical markers of neurodevelopmental risk, at birth, thus potentially "connecting" different PTB phenotypes.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Etiopathogenesis of preterm birth (PTB) is multifactorial, with a universe of risk factors interplaying between the mother and the environment. It is of utmost importance to identify the most informative factors in order to estimate the degree of PTB risk and trace an individualized profile. The aims of the present study were: 1) to identify all acknowledged risk factors for PTB and to select the most informative ones for defining an accurate model of risk prediction; 2) to verify predictive accuracy of the model and 3) to identify group profiles according to the degree of PTB risk based on the most informative factors. METHODS: The Maternal Frailty Inventory (MaFra) was created based on a systematic review of the literature including 174 identified intrauterine (IU) and extrauterine (EU) factors. A sample of 111 pregnant women previously categorized in low or high risk for PTB below 37 weeks, according to ACOG guidelines, underwent the MaFra Inventory. First, univariate logistic regression enabled p-value ordering and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) selected the model including the most informative MaFra factors. Second, random forest classifier verified the overall predictive accuracy of the model. Third, fuzzy c-means clustering assigned group membership based on the most informative MaFra factors. RESULTS: The most informative and parsimonious model selected through AIC included Placenta Previa, Pregnancy Induced Hypertension, Antibiotics, Cervix Length, Physical Exercise, Fetal Growth, Maternal Anxiety, Preeclampsia, Antihypertensives. The random forest classifier including only the most informative IU and EU factors achieved an overall accuracy of 81.08% and an AUC of 0.8122. The cluster analysis identified three groups of typical pregnant women, profiled on the basis of the most informative IU and EU risk factors from a lower to a higher degree of PTB risk, which paralleled time of birth delivery. CONCLUSIONS: This study establishes a generalized methodology for building-up an evidence-based holistic risk assessment for PTB to be used in clinical practice. Relevant and essential factors were selected and were able to provide an accurate estimation of degree of PTB risk based on the most informative constellation of IU and EU factors.
