Effects of the tropospheric large-scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming.

We investigate factors influencing European winter (DJFM) air temperatures for the period 1979-2015 with the focus on changes during the recent period of rapid Arctic warming (1998-2015). We employ meteorological reanalyses analysed with a combination of correlation analysis, two pattern clustering techniques, and back-trajectory airmass identification. In all five selected European regions, severe cold winter events lasting at least 4 days are significantly correlated with warm Arctic episodes. Relationships during opposite conditions of warm Europe/cold Arctic are also significant. Correlations have become consistently stronger since 1998. Large-scale pattern analysis reveals that cold spells are associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO-) and the positive phase of the Scandinavian (SCA+) pattern, which in turn are correlated with the divergence of dry-static energy transport. Warm European extremes are associated with opposite phases of these patterns and the convergence of latent heat transport. Airmass trajectory analysis is consistent with these findings, as airmasses associated with extreme cold events typically originate over continents, while warm events tend to occur with prevailing maritime airmasses. Despite Arctic-wide warming, significant cooling has occurred in northeastern Europe owing to a decrease in adiabatic subsidence heating in airmasses arriving from the southeast, along with increased occurrence of circulation patterns favouring low temperature advection. These dynamic effects dominated over the increased mean temperature of most circulation patterns. Lagged correlation analysis reveals that SCA- and NAO+ are typically preceded by cold Arctic anomalies during the previous 2-3 months, which may aid seasonal forecasting.

Wind Gust Measurement Techniques-From Traditional Anemometry to New Possibilities.

Information on wind gusts is needed for assessment of wind-induced damage and risks to safety. The measurement of wind gust speed requires a high temporal resolution of the anemometer system, because the gust is defined as a short-duration (seconds) maximum of the fluctuating wind speed. Until the digitalization of wind measurements in the 1990s, the wind gust measurements suffered from limited recording and data processing resources. Therefore, the majority of continuous wind gust records date back at most only by 30 years. Although the response characteristics of anemometer systems are good enough today, the traditional measurement techniques at weather stations based on cup and sonic anemometers are limited to heights and regions where the supporting structures can reach. Therefore, existing measurements are mainly concentrated over densely-populated land areas, whereas from remote locations, such as the marine Arctic, wind gust information is available only from sparse coastal locations. Recent developments of wind gust measurement techniques based on turbulence measurements from research aircraft and from Doppler lidar can potentially provide new information from heights and locations unreachable by traditional measurement techniques. Moreover, fast-developing measurement methods based on Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UASs) may add to better coverage of wind gust measurements in the future. In this paper, we provide an overview of the history and the current status of anemometry from the perspective of wind gusts. Furthermore, a discussion on the potential future directions of wind gust measurement techniques is provided.

Heat stress during the Black Saturday event in Melbourne, Australia.

The Black Saturday bushfire event of February 7, 2009, devastated the state of Victoria, Australia, resulting in 173 deaths. On this day, the maximum temperature in Melbourne (state capital of Victoria, population 4 million people) exceeded 46 °C, there were wind gusts of over 80 km h(-1) and the relative humidity dropped below 5 %. We investigated the severe meteorological conditions of Black Saturday and the risk of heat stress and dehydration for the residents of Melbourne. This was through the analysis of weather station data, air pollution data, the apparent temperature (AT) and the COMfort FormulA human energy budget model. A very strong pressure gradient caused hot and dry air to be advected to Melbourne from the desert interior of Australia creating the extreme weather conditions. The AT showed that on Black Saturday, heat stress conditions were present, though underrepresented due to assumptions in the AT formula. Further investigation into the human energy budget revealed that the conditions required a sweating rate of 1.4 kg h(-1) to prevent heat accumulation into the body. If sweating stopped, hyperthermia could occur in 15 min. Sensitivity tests indicated that the dry air and strong winds on Black Saturday helped to release latent heat, but the required sweating rate was virtually unattainable for an average person and would result in intense dehydration. Air particulates were at dangerous concentrations in Melbourne on Black Saturday, further intensifying the stresses to the human body. In the future, we recommend that the AT is not used as a thermal comfort measure as it underestimates the physical stress people experience.

Effects of weather on the performance of marathon runners.

The effects of air temperature, relative and specific humidity, wind speed, solar shortwave radiation, thermal longwave radiation, and rain on the performance of participants in the annual Stockholm Marathon from 1980 to 2008 were analysed statistically. The objective was to validate and extend previous studies by including data on finishing times of slower male and female runners and on the percentage of non-finishers. Due to decadal trends in the finishing time not related to weather, the finishing time anomaly (FTA) was calculated as the deviation of the annual finishing time from the linear trend of the finishing time. In all categories of runners, the single weather parameter with highest correlation with the FTA was the air temperature (correlation coefficient r = 0.66-0.73, with the highest values for slowest runners). Also, the solar shortwave radiation (r = 0.41-0.71), air relative humidity (r = -0.57 to -0.44) and, for male runners, the occurrence of rain (r = -0.51 to -0.42) reached a statistically significant correlation with the FTA, but the effects of the relative humidity and rain only arose from their negative correlation with the air temperature. The percentage of non-finishers (PNF) was significantly affected by the air temperature and specific humidity (r = 0.72 for multiple regression), which is a new result. Compared to faster runners, the results of slower runners were more affected by unfavourable weather conditions; this was previously known for runners with finishing times of 2.1-3 h, and now extended to finishing times of 4.7 h. Effects of warm weather were less evident for female than male runners, which was probably partly due to female runners' larger ratio of surface area to body mass and slower running speed.