European all-cause excess and influenza-attributable mortality in the 2017/18 season: should the burden of influenza B be reconsidered?

OBJECTIVES: Weekly monitoring of European all-cause excess mortality, the EuroMOMO network, observed high excess mortality during the influenza B/Yamagata dominated 2017/18 winter season, especially among elderly. We describe all-cause excess and influenza-attributable mortality during the season 2017/18 in Europe. METHODS: Based on weekly reporting of mortality from 24 European countries or sub-national regions, representing 60% of the European population excluding the Russian and Turkish parts of Europe, we estimated age stratified all-cause excess morality using the EuroMOMO model. In addition, age stratified all-cause influenza-attributable mortality was estimated using the FluMOMO algorithm, incorporating influenza activity based on clinical and virological surveillance data, and adjusting for extreme temperatures. RESULTS: Excess mortality was mainly attributable to influenza activity from December 2017 to April 2018, but also due to exceptionally low temperatures in February-March 2018. The pattern and extent of mortality excess was similar to the previous A(H3N2) dominated seasons, 2014/15 and 2016/17. The 2017/18 overall all-cause influenza-attributable mortality was estimated to be 25.4 (95%CI 25.0-25.8) per 100,000 population; 118.2 (116.4-119.9) for persons aged 65. Extending to the European population this translates into over-all 152,000 deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The high mortality among elderly was unexpected in an influenza B dominated season, which commonly are considered to cause mild illness, mainly among children. Even though A(H3N2) also circulated in the 2017/18 season and may have contributed to the excess mortality among the elderly, the common perception of influenza B only having a modest impact on excess mortality in the older population may need to be reconsidered.

Pooling European all-cause mortality: methodology and findings for the seasons 2008/2009 to 2010/2011.

Several European countries have timely all-cause mortality monitoring. However, small changes in mortality may not give rise to signals at the national level. Pooling data across countries may overcome this, particularly if changes in mortality occur simultaneously. Additionally, pooling may increase the power of monitoring populations with small numbers of expected deaths, e.g. younger age groups or fertile women. Finally, pooled analyses may reveal patterns of diseases across Europe. We describe a pooled analysis of all-cause mortality across 16 European countries. Two approaches were explored. In the 'summarized' approach, data across countries were summarized and analysed as one overall country. In the 'stratified' approach, heterogeneities between countries were taken into account. Pooling using the 'stratified' approach was the most appropriate as it reflects variations in mortality. Excess mortality was observed in all winter seasons albeit slightly higher in 2008/09 than 2009/10 and 2010/11. In the 2008/09 season, excess mortality was mainly in elderly adults. In 2009/10, when pandemic influenza A(H1N1) dominated, excess mortality was mainly in children. The 2010/11 season reflected a similar pattern, although increased mortality in children came later. These patterns were less clear in analyses based on data from individual countries. We have demonstrated that with stratified pooling we can combine local mortality monitoring systems and enhance monitoring of mortality across Europe.

Excess mortality among the elderly in 12 European countries, February and March 2012.

In February and March 2012, excess deaths among the elderly have been observed in 12 European countries that carry out weekly monitoring of all-cause mortality. These preliminary data indicate that the impact of influenza in Europe differs from the recent pandemic and post-pandemic seasons. The current excess mortality among the elderly may be related to the return of influenza A(H3N2) virus, potentially with added effects of a cold snap.

A nationwide outbreak of Salmonella bovismorbificans associated with sprouted alfalfa seeds in Finland, 2009.

Salmonella enterica serotype Bovismorbificans is a rare serotype in Finland. In June 2009, a nationwide outbreak of S. Bovismorbificans infections occurred, and 42 clinical isolates were identified. We conducted a case-control study enrolling 28 cases and 48 matched controls, and found ready-to-eat alfalfa sprouts associated with the infection (odds ratio = 35.2, 95% confidence interval 2.8-435). The sprouts were traced back to a domestic producer, with the seeds originating in Italy. Although finding microbiological evidence for sprouts as a source of this outbreak was very challenging, S. Bovismorbificans was finally found in sprouts germinated in the laboratory, and in soaking and rinse waters during the germination process. The pulsed field gel electrophoresis showed that these isolates were identical to the human outbreak isolates. Before sampling, it is important to mix the seeds well and to take several large-size samples from different seed lots. Instead of analysing seeds, the analysis should be targeted to soaking or rinse water samples and to the sprouts germinated in a laboratory. Accordingly, the sprout producers should only buy seeds that have been analysed for Salmonella. The producers have to include Salmonella testing in their internal quality control to ensure that Salmonella is absent from sprouts placed on the market during their shelf-life. In order to reduce the health hazard caused by sprouts, an effective and safe decontamination procedure should also be developed for the seeds.

An extensive gastroenteritis outbreak after drinking-water contamination by sewage effluent, Finland.

An inappropriate cross-connection between sewage- and drinking-water pipelines contaminated tap water in a Finnish town, resulting in an extensive waterborne gastroenteritis outbreak in this developed country. According to a database and a line-list, altogether 1222 subjects sought medical care as a result of this exposure. Seven pathogens were found in patient samples of those who sought treatment. To establish the true disease burden from this exposure, we undertook a population-based questionnaire investigation with a control population, infrequently used to study waterborne outbreaks. The study covered three areas, contaminated and uncontaminated parts of the town and a control town. An estimated 8453 residents fell ill during the outbreak, the excess number of illnesses being 6501. Attack rates were 53% [95% confidence interval (CI) 49.5-56.4] in the contaminated area, 15.6% (95% CI 13.1-18.5) in the uncontaminated area and 6.5% (95% CI 4.8-8.8) in the control population. Using a control population allowed us to differentiate baseline morbidity from the observed morbidity caused by the water contamination, thus enabling a more accurate estimate of the disease burden of this outbreak.

Disease burden of prosthetic joint infections after hip and knee joint replacement in Finland during 1999-2004: capture-recapture estimation.

We evaluated the Finnish Hospital Infection Program (SIRO) conducting incidence surveillance for prosthetic joint infection (PJI) from 1999 to 2004. We estimated its sensitivity using capture-recapture methods and assessed the disease burden of PJIs after hip (THA) and knee (TKA) arthroplasties (N = 13 482). The following three data sources were used: SIRO, the Finnish Arthroplasty Register (FAR), and the Finnish Patient Insurance Center (FPIC), which were cross-matched, and 129 individual PJIs were identified. After adjusting for the positive predictive value of SIRO (91%) a log-linear model including an interaction term between FAR and FPIC provided an estimated PJI rate of 1.6% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2-2.4] for THA and 1.3% (1.1-1.6) for TKA. Sensitivity for SIRO varied from 36% to 57%. The annual disease burden was 2.1 PJIs per 100 000 population after THA and 1.5 after TKA. The true disease burden of PJIs may be heavier than the rates from national sentinel surveillance systems usually suggest.

Disease burden of Puumala virus infections, 1995-2008.

Puumala virus (PUUV) causes mild haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, a rodent-borne zoonosis. To evaluate the disease burden of PUUV infections in Finland, we analysed data reported by laboratories to the National Infectious Disease Registry during 1995-2008 and compared these with data from other national registries (death, 1998-2007; hospital discharge, 1996-2007; occupational diseases, 1995-2006). A total of 22,681 cases were reported (average annual incidence 31/100,000 population); 85% were in persons aged 20-64 years and 62% were males. There was an increasing trend in incidence, and the rates varied widely by season and region. We observed 13 deaths attributable to PUUV infection (case-fatality proportion 0.08%). Of all cases, 9599 (52%) were hospitalized. Only 590 cases (3%) were registered as occupational disease, of which most were related to farming and forestry. The wide seasonal and geographical variation is probably related to rodent density and human behaviour.

Dietary fiber and fiber-rich food intake in relation to risk of stroke in male smokers.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: There is convincing evidence that a high dietary fiber intake may lower the risk of coronary heart disease. However, the role of fiber in the prevention of stroke is unclear. We examined the associations of dietary fiber and fiber-rich food intake with risk of stroke within the Alpha-tocopherol, Beta-carotene Cancer Prevention Study. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Between 1985 and 1988, 26,556 Finnish male smokers aged 50-69 years, who had no history of stroke, completed a dietary questionnaire. During a mean follow-up of 13.6 years, 2702 cerebral infarctions, 383 intracerebral hemorrhages and 196 subarachnoid hemorrhages were ascertained. RESULTS: After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors and folate and magnesium intakes, there was no significant association between intake of total fiber, water-soluble fiber, water-insoluble fiber, or fiber derived from fruit or cereal sources and risk of any stroke subtype. Vegetable fiber intake, as well as the consumption of fruit, vegetables and cereals, was inversely associated with the risk of cerebral infarction; the multivariate relative risks for the highest quintile of intake as compared with the lowest were 0.86 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.76-0.99) for vegetable fiber, 0.82 (95% CI: 0.73-0.93) for fruit, 0.75 (95% CI: 0.66-0.85) for vegetables and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.74-1.03) for cereals. Vegetable consumption was inversely associated with risk of subarachnoid hemorrhage (relative risk for highest versus lowest quintile: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.40-0.98), and cereal consumption was inversely associated with risk of intracerebral hemorrhage (relative risk: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.41-1.01). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest a beneficial effect of the consumption of fruits, vegetables and cereals on stroke risk.

Yersinia enterocolitica and Y. enterocolitica-like species in clinical stool specimens of humans: identification and prevalence of bio/serotypes in Finland.

This study investigated the prevalence of Yersinia enterocolitica (YE) bio/serotypes and YE-like species in clinical stool specimens. The special aim was to find the best methods for accurate identification of YE species and, further, pathogenic strains among YE isolates. Of the 41,848 specimens cultured in ten laboratories during a 12-month period, 473 Yersinia strains were isolated from 462 patients. The strains were identified by 21 biochemical tests, serotyping, colony morphology, as well as by 16S rRNA and gyrB gene sequencing. The most prevalent Yersinia findings were YE biotype 1A (64% of the strains) and pathogenic bio/serotype 4/O:3 (16%). The cold-enrichment increased the number of all isolates, and 25% of the bio/serotype 4/O:3 and 2/O:9 strains were only found by cold-enrichment. In routine diagnostic laboratories, 50% of the YE-like species were identified as YE and in 26% the identification differed from that of the reference laboratory. The microscopic colony identification on CIN agar with positive CR-MOX test, combined with several biochemical tests, identified reliably the pathogenic YE bioserotypes and most YE BT 1A strains, but some strains of the YE-like species were so heterogenic that gene sequencing was the only way to identify them.

Risk factors for death in a cohort of patients with and without healthcare-associated infections in Finnish acute care hospitals.

We evaluated risk factors for death among hospitalised patients with healthcare-associated infections (HCAIs) using the McCabe classification and Charlson index to predict mortality. The study consisted of a cohort of 703 patients with HCAIs and 7531 patients without HCAI in acute care hospitals participating in the Finnish national prevalence survey in 2005. We used Centers for Disease Control and Prevention definitions for HCAIs and recorded the McCabe classification for comorbidity. We used the date from the prevalence survey and the patient's national identity code in order to retrieve data from the National Hospital Discharge Registry on discharge diagnoses (International Classification of Diseases-10 codes) for the Charlson index and the dates of death from the National Population Information System. Of all inpatients, 425 (5.2%) died within 28 days from the prevalence survey date; the death rate was higher in HCAI patients than in those without HCAI (9.8% vs 4.7%, P<0.001). In the multivariate regression analysis age >65 years, intensive care, McCabe classification and Charlson index, gastrointestinal system infection and pneumonia/other lower respiratory tract infections were independent predictors for death. The survival analysis, when adjusted by McCabe class or Charlson index, showed that HCAI reduced survival only among patients without severe underlying diseases. Certain types of HCAI increased the risk of death. The McCabe classification had advantages over the Charlson index as a predictor of death, because it was easier to collect from a prevalence survey.

Effect of alpha-tocopherol and beta-carotene supplementation on the incidence of type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Type 2 diabetes is associated with reduced antioxidant defence. Only a few human studies have investigated the role of antioxidants in the pathogenesis of diabetes. This study aimed to examine whether alpha-tocopherol or beta-carotene affected the occurrence of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: In the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention (ATBC) Study, a double-blind, controlled trial, 29,133 male smokers aged 50-69 years were randomised to receive either alpha-tocopherol (50 mg/day) or beta-carotene (20 mg/day) or both agents or placebo daily for 5-8 years (median 6.1 years). Baseline serum samples were analysed for alpha-tocopherol and beta-carotene using HPLC. Cases of diabetes were identified from a nationwide Finnish registry of patients receiving drug reimbursement for diabetes. Of 27,379 men without diabetes at baseline, 705 men were diagnosed with diabetes during the follow-up of up to 12.5 years. RESULTS: Baseline serum levels of alpha-tocopherol and beta-carotene were not associated with the risk of diabetes in the placebo group: the relative risk (RR) between the highest and lowest quintiles of alpha-tocopherol was 1.59 (95% CI 0.89-2.84) and that for beta-carotene was 0.66 (95% CI 0.40-1.10). Neither supplementation significantly affected the incidence of diabetes: the RR was 0.92 (95% CI 0.79-1.07) for participants receiving alpha-tocopherol compared with non-recipients and 0.99 (95% CI 0.85-1.15) for participants receiving beta-carotene compared with non-recipients. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Neither alpha-tocopherol nor beta-carotene supplementation prevented type 2 diabetes in male smokers. Serum levels of alpha-tocopherol and beta-carotene were not associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes.