Fracturing and tectonic stress drive ultrarapid magma flow into dikes.

Many examples of exposed giant dike swarms can be found where lateral magma flow has exceeded hundreds of kilometers. We show that massive magma flow into dikes can be established with only modest overpressure in a magma body if a large enough pathway opens at its boundary and gradual buildup of high tensile stress has occurred along the dike pathway prior to the onset of diking. This explains rapid initial magma flow rates, modeled up to about 7400 cubic meters per second into a dike ~15-kilometers long, which propagated under the town of Grindavík, Southwest Iceland, in November 2023. Such high flow rates provide insight into the formation of major dikes and imply a serious hazard potential for high-flow rate intrusions that propagate to the surface and transition into eruptions.

Deformation and seismicity decline before the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption.

Increased rates of deformation and seismicity are well-established precursors to volcanic eruptions, and their interpretation forms the basis for eruption warnings worldwide. Rates of ground displacement and the number of earthquakes escalate before many eruptions1-3, as magma forces its way towards the surface. However, the pre-eruptive patterns of deformation and seismicity vary widely. Here we show how an eruption beginning on 19 March 2021 at Fagradalsfjall, Iceland, was preceded by a period of tectonic stress release ending with a decline in deformation and seismicity over several days preceding the eruption onset. High rates of deformation and seismicity occurred from 24 February to mid-March in relation to gradual emplacement of an approximately 9-km-long magma-filled dyke, between the surface and 8 km depth (volume approximately 34 × 106 m3), as well as the triggering of strike-slip earthquakes up to magnitude MW 5.64. As stored tectonic stress was systematically released, there was less lateral migration of magma and a reduction in both the deformation rates and seismicity. Weaker crust near the surface may also have contributed to reduced seismicity, as the depth of active magma emplacement progressively shallowed. This demonstrates that the interaction between volcanoes and tectonic stress as well as crustal layering need to be fully considered when forecasting eruptions.

Publisher Correction: Seismic ground vibrations give advanced early-warning of subglacial floods.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Seismic ground vibrations give advanced early-warning of subglacial floods.

Glacier runoff and melt from volcanic and geothermal activity accumulates in glacier dammed lakes in glaciated areas around the world. These lakes eventually drain, creating hazardous subglacial floods that are usually only confirmed after they exit the glacier and reach local river systems, which can be many tens of kilometres from the flood source. Once in the river systems, they travel rapidly to populated areas. Such delayed detection represents a potentially lethal shortcoming in early-warning. Here we demonstrate how to advance early-warning potential through the analysis of four such floods in a glaciated region of Iceland. By comparing exceptional multidisciplinary hydrological, GPS and seismic ground vibration (tremor) data, we show that array analysis of seismic tremor can be used for early location and tracking of the subglacial flood front. Furthermore the timing and size of the impending flood can be estimated, prior to it entering the river system. Advanced warnings of between 20 to 34 hours are achieved for large (peak discharge of more than 3000 m3/s, accumulation time of ~ 5.25 years) to small floods (peak discharges from 210 to 380 m3/s, accumulation times of ~ 1.3 years) respectively.

Gradual caldera collapse at Bárdarbunga volcano, Iceland, regulated by lateral magma outflow.

Large volcanic eruptions on Earth commonly occur with a collapse of the roof of a crustal magma reservoir, forming a caldera. Only a few such collapses occur per century, and the lack of detailed observations has obscured insight into the mechanical interplay between collapse and eruption. We use multiparameter geophysical and geochemical data to show that the 110-square-kilometer and 65-meter-deep collapse of Bárdarbunga caldera in 2014-2015 was initiated through withdrawal of magma, and lateral migration through a 48-kilometers-long dike, from a 12-kilometers deep reservoir. Interaction between the pressure exerted by the subsiding reservoir roof and the physical properties of the subsurface flow path explain the gradual, near-exponential decline of both collapse rate and the intensity of the 180-day-long eruption.

Segmented lateral dyke growth in a rifting event at Bárðarbunga volcanic system, Iceland.

Crust at many divergent plate boundaries forms primarily by the injection of vertical sheet-like dykes, some tens of kilometres long. Previous models of rifting events indicate either lateral dyke growth away from a feeding source, with propagation rates decreasing as the dyke lengthens, or magma flowing vertically into dykes from an underlying source, with the role of topography on the evolution of lateral dykes not clear. Here we show how a recent segmented dyke intrusion in the Bárðarbunga volcanic system grew laterally for more than 45 kilometres at a variable rate, with topography influencing the direction of propagation. Barriers at the ends of each segment were overcome by the build-up of pressure in the dyke end; then a new segment formed and dyke lengthening temporarily peaked. The dyke evolution, which occurred primarily over 14 days, was revealed by propagating seismicity, ground deformation mapped by Global Positioning System (GPS), interferometric analysis of satellite radar images (InSAR), and graben formation. The strike of the dyke segments varies from an initially radial direction away from the Bárðarbunga caldera, towards alignment with that expected from regional stress at the distal end. A model minimizing the combined strain and gravitational potential energy explains the propagation path. Dyke opening and seismicity focused at the most distal segment at any given time, and were simultaneous with magma source deflation and slow collapse at the Bárðarbunga caldera, accompanied by a series of magnitude M > 5 earthquakes. Dyke growth was slowed down by an effusive fissure eruption near the end of the dyke. Lateral dyke growth with segment barrier breaking by pressure build-up in the dyke distal end explains how focused upwelling of magma under central volcanoes is effectively redistributed over long distances to create new upper crust at divergent plate boundaries.