Estimating thyroid masses for children, infants, and fetuses in Ukraine exposed to (131)I from the Chernobyl accident.

For the purpose of improving retrospective internal thyroid dose estimations for children and adolescents following the Chernobyl accident, age- and gender-dependent thyroid masses have been estimated for the children of Kiev and Zhytomyr oblasts, which are two of the most contaminated regions of Northern Ukraine. For children ages 6-16 y, the thyroid masses were based on the measurements by ultrasound of the thyroid volumes of about 60,000 children performed by the Sasakawa Memorial Health Foundation in the 1990s. For children aged 0 to 36 mo, because thyroid mass values for Ukrainian children were not found in the literature, autopsies were performed for the specific purpose of this paper. Thyroid mass values for children aged 3-5 and 17-18 y were either interpolated or extrapolated from the measured data sets. The results for children aged 6-16 y indicate that the thyroid masses of rural children are, on average, slightly higher (by about 8%) than the thyroid masses of urban children. The geometric means of the thyroid masses were estimated as 5.2 g, 9.0 g, and 15.8 g for boys and 5.2 g, 9.4 g, and 16.0 g for girls aged 5, 10, and 15 y, respectively. Those values are greater than the reference values that ICRP recommends for iodine-sufficient populations, thus reflecting the fact that the northern part of Ukraine is iodine-deficient.

Estimation of the thyroid doses for ukrainian children exposed in utero after the chernobyl accident.

This paper describes methods for estimating thyroid doses to Ukrainian children who were subjects of an epidemiological study of prenatal exposure and presents the calculated doses. Participants were 2,582 mother-child pairs in which the mother had been pregnant at the time of the Chernobyl accident on 26 April 1986 or in the 2-3 mo following when (131)I in fallout was still present. Among these, 1,494 were categorized as "exposed;" a comparison group of 1,088 was considered "relatively unexposed." Individual in utero thyroid dose estimates were found to range from less than 1 mGy to 3,200 mGy, with an arithmetic mean of 72 mGy. Thyroid doses varied primarily according to stage of pregnancy at the time of exposure and level of radioactive contamination at the location of residence. There was a marked difference between the dose distributions of the exposed and comparison groups, although nine children in the latter group had calculated doses in the range 100-200 mGy. For those children who were born after the accident and prior to the end of June 1986, postnatal thyroid doses were also estimated. About 7.7% (200) of the subjects received thyroid doses after birth that were at least 10% of their cumulative doses.

Thyroid mass in children and adolescents living in the most exposed areas to Chernobyl fallout in Belarus.

This paper aims to determine the thyroid volumes in children and teenagers living in Gomel and Mogilev Oblasts, which are the areas of Belarus that were most affected by the Chernobyl accident. Results of thyroid volume measurements performed in 1991-1996 by the Sasakawa Memorial Health Foundation were used to evaluate the variation by age of the thyroid volumes for girls and boys aged from 5 to 16 y. Thyroid volumes for age groups without measurements were also estimated. For a given age and gender, the differences between children from Gomel and Mogilev Oblasts do not exceed 12 %, which is relatively small when the variability of individual values is considered. For children of a given age, the individual values show a variability characterised by geometric standard deviation (GSD) of 1.25-1.4. Values of thyroid mass that were derived from the measured thyroid volumes are being used within the framework of the on-going Belarusian-American cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases after the Chernobyl accident to estimate with more accuracy the thyroid doses that were received by the cohort members.

Questionnaire- and measurement-based individual thyroid doses in Ukraine resulting from the Chornobyl nuclear reactor accident.

The U.S. National Cancer Institute (NCI), in cooperation with the Ministries of Health of Belarus and of Ukraine, is involved in epidemiological studies of thyroid diseases presumably related to the Chornobyl accident, which occurred in Ukraine on 26 April 1986. Within the framework of these studies, individual thyroid absorbed doses, as well as uncertainties, have been estimated for all members of the cohorts (13,215 Ukrainians and 11,918 Belarusians), who were selected from the large group of children aged 0 to 18 whose thyroids were monitored for gamma radiation within a few weeks after the accident. Information on the residence history and dietary habits of each cohort member was obtained during personal interviews. The methodology used to estimate the thyroid absorbed doses resulting from intakes of (131)I by the Ukrainian cohort subjects is described. The model of thyroid dose estimation is run in two modes: deterministic and stochastic. In the stochastic mode, the model is run 1,000 times for each subject using a Monte Carlo procedure. The geometric means of the individual thyroid absorbed doses obtained in the stochastic mode range from 0.0006 to 42 Gy. The arithmetic and geometric means of these individual thyroid absorbed doses over the entire cohort are 0.68 and 0.23 Gy, respectively. On average, the individual thyroid dose estimates obtained in the deterministic mode are about the same as the geometric mean doses obtained in the stochastic mode, while the arithmetic mean thyroid absorbed doses obtained in the stochastic mode are about 20% higher than those obtained in the deterministic mode. The distributions of the 1000 values of the individual thyroid absorbed dose estimates are found to be approximately lognormal, with geometric standard deviations ranging from 1.6 to 5.0 for most cohort subjects. For the time being, only the thyroid doses resulting from intakes of (131)I have been estimated for all subjects. Future work will include the estimation of the contributions to the thyroid doses resulting from external irradiation and from intakes of short-lived ((133)I and (132)Te) and long-lived ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) radionuclides, as well as efforts to reduce the uncertainties.

Childhood leukaemia in Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine following the Chernobyl power station accident: results from an international collaborative population-based case-control study.

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence regarding the risk of leukaemia in children following exposure to radionuclides from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant explosion on April 26, 1986. METHODS: This population-based case-control study investigated whether acute leukaemia is increased among children who were in utero or <6 years of age at the time of the Chernobyl accident. Confirmed cases of leukaemia diagnosed from April 26, 1986 through December 31, 2000 in contaminated regions of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine were included. Two controls were matched to each case on sex, birth year, and residence. Accumulated absorbed radiation dose to the bone marrow was estimated for each subject. RESULTS: Median estimated radiation doses of participants were <10 mGy. A significant increase in leukaemia risk with increasing radiation dose to the bone marrow was found. This association was most evident in Ukraine, apparent (but not statistically significant) in Belarus, and not found in Russia. CONCLUSION: Taken at face value, these findings suggest that prolonged exposure to very low radiation doses may increase leukaemia risk as much as or even more than acute exposure. However the large and statistically significant dose-response might be accounted for, at least in part, by an overestimate of risk in Ukraine. Therefore, we conclude this study provides no convincing evidence of an increased risk of childhood leukaemia as a result of exposure to Chernobyl radiation, since it is unclear whether the results are due to a true radiation-related excess, a sampling-derived bias in Ukraine, or some combination thereof. However, the lack of significant dose-responses in Belarus and Russia also cannot convincingly rule out the possibility of an increase in leukaemia risk at low dose levels.

Post-Chornobyl thyroid cancers in Ukraine. Report 1: estimation of thyroid doses.

About 1.8 EBq of 131I was released into the atmosphere during the Chornobyl accident that occurred in Ukraine on April 26, 1986. More than 10% of this activity was deposited on the territory of Ukraine. Beginning 4-5 years after the accident, an increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer among children, believed to be caused in part by exposure to 131I, has been observed in different regions of Ukraine. A three-level system of thyroid dose estimation was developed for the reconstruction of thyroid doses from 131I for the entire population of Ukrainian children aged 1 to 18 at the time of accident: (1) At the first level, individual doses were estimated for the approximately 99,000 children and adolescents with direct measurements of radioactivity in the thyroid (so-called direct thyroid measurements) performed in May-June of 1986; (2) at the second level, group doses by year of age and by gender were estimated for the population of 748 localities (with 208,400 children aged 1-18 in 1986) where direct thyroid measurements of good quality were performed on some of the residents; and (3) at the third level, group doses by age and by gender were estimated for the population of the localities where no thyroid measurements were made in 1986. The third-level doses were then aggregated over the population of each oblast. Data, models and procedures required for each level of thyroid dose estimation are described in the paper. At the first level, individual doses were found to range up to 27,000 mGy, with geometric and arithmetic means of 100 and 300 mGy, respectively. At the second level, group doses were found to be highest for the younger children (aged 1 to 4 years); doses for the older children (aged 16 to 18 years) were 3.5 times smaller. At the third level, average population-weighted doses were found to exceed 35 mGy in the five northern oblasts closer to the Chornobyl reactor site; to be in the 14- to 34-mGy range in seven other oblasts, Kyiv city and Crimea; and to be less than 13 mGy in all other oblasts.

Estimating individual thyroid doses for a case-control study of childhood thyroid cancer in Bryansk Oblast, Russia.

Following the Chernobyl accident, radioactive fission products, including (131)I and (137)Cs, were deposited in Bryansk Oblast in Russia. Intakes of radioiodines, mainly (131)I in milk, were the principal sources of radiation doses to thyroids of residents of the contaminated areas, but those radionuclides decayed before detailed contamination surveys could be performed. As a result, (137)Cs deposition density is the primary measure of the contamination due to the accident and there are relatively few measurements of the ratio of (131)I to (137)Cs in vegetation or soil samples from this area. Although many measurements of radiation emitted from the necks of residents were performed and used to estimate thyroidal (131)I activities and thyroid doses, such data are not available for all subjects. The semi-empirical model was selected to provide a dose calculation method to be applied uniformly to cases and controls in the study. The model was developed using dose estimates from direct measurements of (131)I in adult thyroids, and relates settlement average thyroid doses to (137)Cs contamination levels and ratios of (131)I to (137)Cs. This model is useful for areas where thyroid monitoring was not performed and can be used to estimate doses to exposed individuals. For application to children in this study, adjustment factors are used to address differences in age-dependent intake rates and thyroid dosimetry. Other individual dietary factors and sources (private/public) of milk consumed are reflected in the dose estimates. Countermeasures that reduced thyroid dose, such as cessation of milk consumption and intake of stable iodine, are also considered for each subject. The necessary personal information of subjects was obtained by interview, most frequently of their mothers, using a questionnaire developed for the study. Uncertainties in thyroid dose, estimated using Monte Carlo techniques, are presented for reference conditions. Thyroid dose estimates for individual children made using the semi-empirical model and questionnaire data compare reasonably well with dose estimates made for 19 children whose thyroid burdens of (131)I were measured from May to June 1986.

Contributions of short-lived radioiodines to thyroid doses received by evacuees from the Chernobyl area estimated using early in vivo activity measurements.

A series of in vivo gamma spectrometric measurements of 65 people evacuated from Pripyat 1.5 days after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Unit 4 explosion was performed in St Petersburg, Russia, as early as 30 April 1986. The historical spectra and interviews were recently processed and the results used for thyroid dose estimation. Activities of 131I in thyroid and 132Te in lungs were determined easily; for estimation of 132I and 133I activities in thyroid, sophisticated methods of spectral processing were developed. According to thyroid measurement data, the mean ratio of 133I/131I activities (at the time of the accident) inhaled by residents of Pripyat was 2.0. The mean ratio of thyroid dose from 133I inhalation to that caused by 131I amounts to 0.3, which confirms the accuracy of dose estimates based on the evolution of the Chernobyl accident. The mean ratio of 132I activity in thyroid to that of 132Te in lungs was assessed from the human measurement data to be 0.2, which is in reasonable agreement with the metabolic properties of these radionuclides. The mean ratio of thyroid dose from 132I originating from 132Te deposited in lungs to the dose caused by 131I was 0.13 +/- 0.02 for Pripyat residents who did not take KI pills and 0.9 +/- 0.1 for persons who took KI pills. Thus, the contribution of short-lived radioiodines to total thyroid dose of Pripyat residents, which was on average 30% for persons who did not use stable iodine prophylaxis, and about 50% for persons who took KI pills on 26-27 April, should be accounted for in the assessment of thyroid health effects.

Elevated exposure rates under inclined birch trees indicate the occurrence of rainfall during radioactive fallout from Chernobyl.

Knowledge of the mode of deposition (wet or dry) during the main fallout period following the Chernobyl accident in late April 1986 is one of the most important parameters in environmental reconstruction of the radiation dose to the thyroid from 113I following the accident. Meteorological data are available only for a small number of locations, but routine field measurements in 1997 of exposure rates in areas still contaminated by 137Cs revealed that there is a natural indicator of wet deposition. Follow-up measurements confirmed that there is a significant difference in exposure rates measured on different sides at the bases of inclined birch trees in areas of wet deposition. In such areas, the exposure rates measured on the "sheltered" sides of the trees were on average 2.3+/-0.2 times those measured on the unsheltered side. In areas of dry deposition the comparable ratio was 1.01+/-0.02 for similarly inclined trees. Because birch trees are a common feature in the contaminated territories, this effect has a wide potential for use in determining whether the fallout in many areas was due to wet or dry deposition.

Risks of fatal cancer from inhalation of 239,240plutonium by humans: a combined four-method approach with uncertainty evaluation.

The risk per unit dose to the four primary cancer sites for plutonium inhalation exposure (lung, liver, bone, bone marrow) is estimated by combining the risk estimates that are derived from four independent approaches. Each approach represents a fundamentally different source of data from which plutonium risk estimates can be derived. These are: (1) epidemiologic studies of workers exposed to plutonium; (2) epidemiologic studies of persons exposed to low-LET radiation combined with a factor for the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of plutonium alpha particles appropriate for each cancer site of concern; (3) epidemiologic studies of persons exposed to alpha-emitting radionuclides other than plutonium; and (4) controlled studies of animals exposed to plutonium and other alpha-emitting radionuclides extrapolated to humans. This procedure yielded the following organ-specific estimates of the distribution of mortality risk per unit dose from exposure to plutonium expressed as the median estimate with the 5th to 95th percentiles of the distribution in parentheses: lung 0.13 Gy(-1) (0.022-0.53 Gy(-1)); liver 0.057 Gy(-1) (0.011-0.47 Gy(-1)); bone 0.0013 Gy(-1) (0.000060-0.025 Gy(-1)); bone marrow (leukemia), 0.013 Gy(-1) (0.00061-0.05 Gy(-1)). Because the different tissues do not receive the same dose following an inhalation exposure, the mortality risk per unit intake of activity via inhalation of a 1-microm AMAD plutonium aerosol also was determined. To do this, inhalation dose coefficients based on the most recent ICRP models and accounting for input parameter uncertainties were combined with the risk coefficients described above. The following estimates of the distribution of mortality risk per unit intake were determined for a 1-microm AMAD plutonium aerosol with a geometric standard deviation of 2.5: lung 5.3 x 10(-7) Bq(-1) (0.65-35 x 10(-7) Bq(-1)), liver 1.2 x 10(-7) Bq(-1) (0.091-20 x 10(-7) Bq(-1)), bone 0.11 x 10(-7) Bq(-1) (0.0030-4.3 x 10(-7) Bq(-1)), bone marrow (leukemia) 0.049 x 10(-7) Bq(-1) (0.0017-0.59 x 10(-7) Bq(-1)). The cancer mortality risk for all sites was estimated to be 10 x 10(-7) Bq(-1) (2.1-55 x 10(-7) Bq(-1))--a result that agrees very well with other recent estimates. The large uncertainties in the risks per unit intake of activity reflect the combined uncertainty in the dose and risk coefficients.

Overview of the Fernald Dosimetry Reconstruction Project and source term estimates for 1951-1988.

The Feed Materials Production Center, northwest of Cincinnati, processed uranium concentrates and uranium compounds recycled from other stages of nuclear weapons production, as well as some uranium ore and thorium. Particulate releases were primarily uranium (natural, depleted, and slightly enriched. In addition, two large silos containing radium-bearing residues were emission sources of radon and its decay products. The Fernald Dosimetry Reconstruction Project was undertaken to help the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to evaluate the impact of the Feed Materials Production Center on the public from radionuclides released to the environment from 1951 through 1988. At this point in the study, the project has estimated the quantities of radioactive materials released to air, surface water, and in groundwater; developed the methodology to describe the environmental transport of the materials; developed mathematical models to calculate the resulting radiation doses; and evaluated environmental monitoring data to verify that the estimates of releases and transport are reasonable. Thorough review of historical records and extensive interaction with former and current employees and residents have been the foundation for reconstructing routine operations, documenting accidents, and evaluating unmonitored emission sources. The largest releases of uranium to air and water occurred in the 1950's and 1960's. Radon releases from the silos remained elevated through most of the 1970's. The quantity of uranium released to surface water was much less than that released to air. Best estimates of releases are reported as median values, with associated uncertainties calculated as an integral part of the estimates. Screening calculations showed that atmospheric pathways dominate the total dose from Feed Materials Production Center releases. Accordingly, the local meteorology, effluent particle size and chemical form, and wet and dry deposition, were particularly important in this study. The final goal of the project is the calculation of radiation doses to people living in the study domain, which is represented by a circle with radius of 10 km centered on the Feed Materials Production Center production area.

Effect of stomatal opening on the transfer of 131I2 from air to grass.

The effect of stomatal opening on the air-to-trass transfer of molecular iodine gas (I2) was studied in a small environmental chamber with an airflow rate of about 1 m/sec above the grass. Measured stomatal densities and stomatal areas were used to determine the per cent of Bromegrass leaf area composed of stomatal openings (As). The transfer parameter Pt(g-1) (analogous to the normalized transfer velocity) was found to be directly dependent upon stomatal opening as measured by As: Pt = 2.21 X 10(-4) + (4.60 X 10(-4) As. The maximum value of Pt observed was 5.43 X 10(-4) g-1 or 2.4 times that observed for As approximately 0. This proportionality to pore area is in agreement with measured diffusion rates through perforated metal screens. It was also found that Bromegrass is far from a "perfect sink" for sorption of 131I2, a fact which must be considered in the development of models of radioiodine transfer. Retention of radioiodine by contaminated foliage is dependent on the radioiodine transfer process and the implications of the current results are indicated.

The behavior of 137Cs and other fallout radionuclides on a Michigan dairy farm.

The behavior of the fallout radionuclides 137Cs, 54Mn, 14Ce-Pr and 90Sr in the milk-food chain was studied at a commercial dairy farm near Tecumseh, Michigan during 1964 and 1965. The main purpose of the study was to develop mathematical models to describe the movement of radionuclides from air to milk. Three models are presented: the first predicts the total deposition on precipitation collectors given the air concentration and rainfall rate; the second predicts the concentration in forage from air concentration, rainfall rate, and the rates at which the forage grows and is consumed by the dairy herd; the third predicts the milk concentration from the concentration in each type of feed and the rate at which each feed type is consumed by the dairy herd. The first two models are applicable to all four radionuclides but the milk model is valid only for 137Cs. Milk concentrations for the other three radionuclides are treated individually. The model for deposition on precipitation collectors was developed independently and is shown to predict weekly deposition rates to within a factor of three (95% of the time). This uncertainty is reduced as the time span for the prediction is increased. Development of the other two models was based in part on data from the Tecumseh study; both still require independent verification. The forage model fits the weekly experimental data to within a factor of 2.2. The milk model fits the weekly measurements of 137Cs concentrations to within a factor of 1.5. The error of the latter 2 models also decreases as the time span for the prediction is increased.