Studying information recurrence, gatekeeping, and the role of communities during internet outages in Venezuela.

Many authoritarian regimes have taken to censoring internet access in order to stop the spread of misinformation, restrict citizens from discussing certain topics, and prevent mobilization, among other reasons. There are several theories about the effectiveness of censorship. Some suggest that censorship will effectively limit the flow of information, whereas others predict that a backlash will form, resulting in ultimately more discussion about the topic. In this work, we analyze the role of communities and gatekeepers during multiple internet outages in Venezuela in January 2019. First, we measure how critical information (e.g., entities and hashtags) spreads during outages focusing on information recurrence and burstiness within and across language and location communities. We discover that information bursts tend to cross both language and location community boundaries rather than being limited to a single community during several outages. Then we identify users who play central roles and propose a novel method to detect gatekeepers-users who prevent critical information from spreading across communities during outages. We show that bilingual and English-speaking users play more central roles compared to Spanish-speaking users, but users inside and outside Venezuela have similar distribution of centrality. Finally, we measure the differences in social network structure before and after each outage event and discuss its effect on how information spreads. We find that with each outage event social connections tend to get less connected with higher mean shortest path, indicating that the effect of censorship makes it harder for information to spread.

Multiple social platforms reveal actionable signals for software vulnerability awareness: A study of GitHub, Twitter and Reddit.

The awareness about software vulnerabilities is crucial to ensure effective cybersecurity practices, the development of high-quality software, and, ultimately, national security. This awareness can be better understood by studying the spread, structure and evolution of software vulnerability discussions across online communities. This work is the first to evaluate and contrast how discussions about software vulnerabilities spread on three social platforms-Twitter, GitHub, and Reddit. Moreover, we measure how user-level e.g., bot or not, and content-level characteristics e.g., vulnerability severity, post subjectivity, targeted operating systems as well as social network topology influence the rate of vulnerability discussion spread. To lay the groundwork, we present a novel fundamental framework for measuring information spread in multiple social platforms that identifies spread mechanisms and observables, units of information, and groups of measurements. We then contrast topologies for three social networks and analyze the effect of the network structure on the way discussions about vulnerabilities spread. We measure the scale and speed of the discussion spread to understand how far and how wide they go, how many users participate, and the duration of their spread. To demonstrate the awareness of more impactful vulnerabilities, a subset of our analysis focuses on vulnerabilities targeted during recent major cyber-attacks and those exploited by advanced persistent threat groups. One of our major findings is that most discussions start on GitHub not only before Twitter and Reddit, but even before a vulnerability is officially published. The severity of a vulnerability contributes to how much it spreads, especially on Twitter. Highly severe vulnerabilities have significantly deeper, broader and more viral discussion threads. When analyzing vulnerabilities in software products we found that different flavors of Linux received the highest discussion volume. We also observe that Twitter discussions started by humans have larger size, breadth, depth, adoption rate, lifetime, and structural virality compared to those started by bots. On Reddit, discussion threads of positive posts are larger, wider, and deeper than negative or neutral posts. We also found that all three networks have high modularity that encourages spread. However, the spread on GitHub is different from other networks, because GitHub is more dense, has stronger community structure and assortativity that enhances information diffusion. We anticipate the results of our analysis to not only increase the understanding of software vulnerability awareness but also inform the existing and new analytical frameworks for simulating information spread e.g., disinformation across multiple social environments online.

Forecasting influenza-like illness dynamics for military populations using neural networks and social media.

This work is the first to take advantage of recurrent neural networks to predict influenza-like illness (ILI) dynamics from various linguistic signals extracted from social media data. Unlike other approaches that rely on timeseries analysis of historical ILI data and the state-of-the-art machine learning models, we build and evaluate the predictive power of neural network architectures based on Long Short Term Memory (LSTMs) units capable of nowcasting (predicting in "real-time") and forecasting (predicting the future) ILI dynamics in the 2011 - 2014 influenza seasons. To build our models we integrate information people post in social media e.g., topics, embeddings, word ngrams, stylistic patterns, and communication behavior using hashtags and mentions. We then quantitatively evaluate the predictive power of different social media signals and contrast the performance of the-state-of-the-art regression models with neural networks using a diverse set of evaluation metrics. Finally, we combine ILI and social media signals to build a joint neural network model for ILI dynamics prediction. Unlike the majority of the existing work, we specifically focus on developing models for local rather than national ILI surveillance, specifically for military rather than general populations in 26 U.S. and six international locations., and analyze how model performance depends on the amount of social media data available per location. Our approach demonstrates several advantages: (a) Neural network architectures that rely on LSTM units trained on social media data yield the best performance compared to previously used regression models. (b) Previously under-explored language and communication behavior features are more predictive of ILI dynamics than stylistic and topic signals expressed in social media. (c) Neural network models learned exclusively from social media signals yield comparable or better performance to the models learned from ILI historical data, thus, signals from social media can be potentially used to accurately forecast ILI dynamics for the regions where ILI historical data is not available. (d) Neural network models learned from combined ILI and social media signals significantly outperform models that rely solely on ILI historical data, which adds to a great potential of alternative public sources for ILI dynamics prediction. (e) Location-specific models outperform previously used location-independent models e.g., U.S. only. (f) Prediction results significantly vary across geolocations depending on the amount of social media data available and ILI activity patterns. (g) Model performance improves with more tweets available per geo-location e.g., the error gets lower and the Pearson score gets higher for locations with more tweets.

On Predicting Sociodemographic Traits and Emotions from Communications in Social Networks and Their Implications to Online Self-Disclosure.

Social media services such as Twitter and Facebook are virtual environments where people express their thoughts, emotions, and opinions and where they reveal themselves to their peers. We analyze a sample of 123,000 Twitter users and 25 million of their tweets to investigate the relation between the opinions and emotions that users express and their predicted psychodemographic traits. We show that the emotions that we express on online social networks reveal deep insights about ourselves. Our methodology is based on building machine learning models for inferring coarse-grained emotions and psychodemographic profiles from user-generated content. We examine several user attributes, including gender, income, political views, age, education, optimism, and life satisfaction. We correlate these predicted demographics with the emotional profiles emanating from user tweets, as captured by Ekman's emotion classification. We find that some users tend to express significantly more joy and significantly less sadness in their tweets, such as those predicted to be in a relationship, with children, or with a higher than average annual income or educational level. Users predicted to be women tend to be more opinionated, whereas those predicted to be men tend to be more neutral. Finally, users predicted to be younger and liberal tend to project more negative opinions and emotions. We discuss the implications of our findings to online privacy concerns and self-disclosure behavior.

Studying User Income through Language, Behaviour and Affect in Social Media.

Automatically inferring user demographics from social media posts is useful for both social science research and a range of downstream applications in marketing and politics. We present the first extensive study where user behaviour on Twitter is used to build a predictive model of income. We apply non-linear methods for regression, i.e. Gaussian Processes, achieving strong correlation between predicted and actual user income. This allows us to shed light on the factors that characterise income on Twitter and analyse their interplay with user emotions and sentiment, perceived psycho-demographics and language use expressed through the topics of their posts. Our analysis uncovers correlations between different feature categories and income, some of which reflect common belief e.g. higher perceived education and intelligence indicates higher earnings, known differences e.g. gender and age differences, however, others show novel findings e.g. higher income users express more fear and anger, whereas lower income users express more of the time emotion and opinions.