Machine learning for individualized prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma development after the eradication of hepatitis C virus with antivirals.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Accurate risk stratification for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after achieving a sustained viral response (SVR) is necessary for optimal surveillance. We aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model to predict the risk of HCC after achieving an SVR in individual patients. METHODS: In this multicenter cohort study, 1742 patients with chronic hepatitis C who achieved an SVR were enrolled. Five ML models were developed including DeepSurv, gradient boosting survival analysis, random survival forest (RSF), survival support vector machine, and a conventional Cox proportional hazard model. Model performance was evaluated using Harrel' c-index and was externally validated in an independent cohort (977 patients). RESULTS: During the mean observation period of 5.4 years, 122 patients developed HCC (83 in the derivation cohort and 39 in the external validation cohort). The RSF model showed the best discrimination ability using seven parameters at the achievement of an SVR with a c-index of 0.839 in the external validation cohort and a high discriminative ability when the patients were categorized into three risk groups (P <0.001). Furthermore, this RSF model enabled the generation of an individualized predictive curve for HCC occurrence for each patient with an app available online. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and externally validated an RSF model with good predictive performance for the risk of HCC after an SVR. The application of this novel model is available on the website. This model could provide the data to consider an effective surveillance method. Further studies are needed to make recommendations for surveillance policies tailored to the medical situation in each country. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: A novel prediction model for HCC occurrence in patients after hepatitis C virus eradication was developed using machine learning algorithms. This model, using seven commonly measured parameters, has been shown to have a good predictive ability for HCC development and could provide a personalized surveillance system.

Impact of Obesity and Heavy Alcohol Consumption on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development after HCV Eradication with Antivirals.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: It remains unclear whether obesity increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis C who achieved a sustained virological response (SVR) with antiviral therapy. METHODS: In this multicenter cohort study, we enrolled patients with chronic hepatitis C who achieved SVR with interferon (IFN)-based therapy (IFN group) or direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy (DAA group) between January 1, 1990, and December 31, 2018. The patients underwent regular surveillance for HCC. Cumulative incidence of and the risk factors for HCC development after SVR were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, respectively. RESULTS: Among 2,055 patients (840 in the IFN group and 1,215 in the DAA group), 75 developed HCC (41 in the IFN group and 34 in the DAA group) during the mean observation period of 4.1 years. The incidence rates of HCC at 1, 2, and 3 years were 1.2, 1.9, and 3.0%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that in addition to older age, lower albumin level, lower platelet count, higher alpha-fetoprotein level, and absence of dyslipidemia, obesity (body mass index ≥25 kg/m2) and heavy alcohol consumption (≥60 g/day) were independent risk factors for HCC development, with adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 2.53 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.51-4.25) and 2.56 (95% CI: 1.14-5.75), respectively. The adjusted HR was not significant between the 2 groups (DAA vs. IFN; HR 1.19, 95% CI: 0.61-2.33). CONCLUSIONS: Obesity and heavy alcohol consumption increased the risk of HCC development after SVR.

Jejunal variceal rupture in a patient with myelofibrosis: a case report.

An 80-year old man with myelofibrosis and chronic renal disease was admitted to our hospital because of severe anemia and gastrointestinal bleeding. Although no bleeding was observed by upper or lower endoscopy, contrast-enhanced computed tomography revealed an enhanced area in the small intestinal wall that was suspected of being the bleeding site, and was confirmed by double-balloon endoscopy. Based on endoscopic findings, it was difficult to differentiate between variceal rupture and collapse of a submucosal tumor. We performed segmental resection of the small intestine to make a definitive diagnosis and achieve reliable hemostasis. The gross findings confirmed a variceal rupture from the small intestine. His gastrointestinal bleeding stopped and his anemia improved following surgery. Although some cases of portal hypertension in association with myelofibrosis have been reported, we are aware of no prior reports of variceal rupture in the small intestine. To our knowledge, this is the first reported case of ectopic jejunal varices in a patient with myelofibrosis.

Endoscopic tissue shielding to prevent bleeding after endoscopic submucosal dissection: a prospective multicenter randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Bleeding after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) is a severe adverse event. Recent reports have described the efficacy of the endoscopic shielding method with polyglycolic acid (PGA) sheets and fibrin glue for the prevention of adverse events after ESD. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the PGA shielding method provides additional benefit in preventing post-ESD bleeding compared with standard care. METHODS: This was a prospective, multicenter, randomized controlled trial. Patients at high risk of post-ESD bleeding were enrolled in the study. Before ESD, patients were randomized to either the PGA group or the control group. After completing ESD in the PGA group, PGA sheets were placed onto the ulcer floor and adhered with fibrin glue. The primary end point was the post-ESD bleeding rate. RESULTS: 140 eligible patients were enrolled from September 2014 to September 2016, and 137 were included in the intention-to-treat analysis (67 in the PGA group and 70 in the control group). Post-ESD bleeding occurred in three patients (4.5 %) in the PGA group and in four patients (5.7 %) in the control group; there was no significant difference between the two groups (P > 0.99). Post-ESD bleeding tended to occur later in the control group than in the PGA group (median 12.5 days [range 8 - 14] vs. 2 days [range 0 - 7], respectively). CONCLUSION: The PGA shielding method did not demonstrate a significant effect on the prevention of post-ESD bleeding.

Management of early gastric cancer with positive horizontal or indeterminable margins after endoscopic submucosal dissection: multicenter survey.

Background and study aims Positive horizontal margins in resected specimens are sometimes encountered after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for early gastric cancers, and appropriate treatment strategies for these cases are not established. The aim of this study was to evaluate current empirical treatments for patients with positive horizontal or indeterminable margins after ESD. Patients and methods We performed a multicenter survey and data from 14 hospitals were collected. The pooled proportions of positive horizontal or indeterminable margins and those of patients followed up without early intervention were calculated using a logistic-normal random-effects model. For calculating pooled estimates, subgroup analyses of high- and non-high-volume centers were conducted. Results A total of 11,796 ESD cases were enrolled and 229 patients (2 %) had positive horizontal or indeterminable margins. Ninety-eight cases were treated within 30 days of ESD and 131 cases were followed up without early treatments. Pooled estimates of positive margins in high- and non-high-volume centers were 1 % (95 % CI: 1 % - 2 %) and 2 % (95 % CI: 1 % - 4 %), respectively, and were not heterogeneous (P = 0.191). The proportion of patients followed up without early intervention ranged from 30 % to 100 %. The pooled estimate was 68 % (95 % CI: 50 % - 83 %). The pooled estimates of high- and non-high-volume centers were 65 % (95 % CI: 38 % - 85 %) and 72 % (95 % CI: 44 % - 89 %), respectively, and were not heterogeneous (P = 0.692). Conclusion There was insufficient consensus regarding treatment strategies used for early gastric cancer with positive horizontal or indeterminable margins after ESD. Further studies are required to establish a consensus.

Premedication with fast-acting oxycodone hydrochloride hydrate effectively reduced oxaliplatin-induced severe vascular pain.

Oxaliplatin is a platinum-based chemotherapeutic agent that holds a prominent position in the treatment of colorectal and gastric cancers. However, severe oxaliplatin-related vascular pain can be problematic for patients. Here we describe seven patients who experienced severe vascular pain caused by oxaliplatin administration. All seven patients were treated with capecitabine and oxaliplatin or capecitabine plus oxaliplatin with bevacizumab as an adjuvant or a treatment for recurrent colorectal cancer, respectively. Patients experienced intolerable vascular pain during oxaliplatin administration, which continued for several days. Moreover, vascular pain also induced insomnia and appetite loss in all patients. We recommended implantation of a central venous (CV) port to the patients; however, all patients declined this treatment. In addition, various known countermeasures were taken, but were ineffective. Therefore, patients were orally administered oxycodone hydrochloride hydrate (Oxinorm®) 45 min prior to oxaliplatin administration. This pretreatment successfully reduced vascular pain and improved subsequent chemotherapy. Oxinorm® is a fast-acting opioid that can be an effective and practical option for severe vascular pain induced by oxaliplatin. The present report is the first description that emphasizes the usefulness of Oxinorm® to overcome the vascular pain induced by administration of oxaliplatin via a peripheral vein.

An Adult Gastric Duplication Cyst Mimicking a Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor.

We herein describe a rare case of a 24-year-old man who presented with severe epigastralgia after consuming a considerable amount of broiled meat. Computed tomography revealed a cystic lesion adjacent to the distal stomach, with high intensity on T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging. Upper endoscopy showed a cystic mass measuring 6 cm in diameter, mimicking a submucosal tumor adjacent to the pyloric valve, with duodenum invagination, characteristic of ball valve syndrome. Endoscopic ultrasonography showed that the lesion was contiguous through the first to the third layer of the stomach. Therefore, we performed distal gastrectomy. Pathology showed that the lesion was a gastric duplication cyst without malignancy.