Examining the stability of viral RNA and DNA in wastewater: Effects of storage time, temperature, and freeze-thaw cycles.

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been demonstrably successful as a relatively unbiased tool for monitoring levels of SARS-CoV-2 virus circulating in communities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Accumulated biobanks of wastewater samples allow retrospective exploration of spatial and temporal trends for public health indicators such as chemicals, viruses, antimicrobial resistance genes, and the possible emergence of novel human or zoonotic pathogens. We investigated virus resilience to time, temperature, and freeze-thaw cycles, plus the optimal storage conditions to maintain the stability of genetic material (RNA/DNA) of viral +ssRNA (Envelope - E, Nucleocapsid - N and Spike protein - S genes of SARS-CoV-2), dsRNA (Phi6 phage) and circular dsDNA (crAssphage) in wastewater. Samples consisted of (i) processed and extracted wastewater samples, (ii) processed and extracted distilled water samples, and (iii) raw, unprocessed wastewater samples. Samples were stored at -80 °C, -20 °C, 4 °C, or 20 °C for 10 days, going through up to 10 freeze-thaw cycles (once per day). Sample stability was measured using reverse transcription quantitative PCR, quantitative PCR, automated electrophoresis, and short-read whole genome sequencing. Exploring different areas of the SARS-CoV-2 genome demonstrated that the S gene in processed and extracted samples showed greater sensitivity to freeze-thaw cycles than the E or N genes. Investigating surrogate and normalisation viruses showed that Phi6 remains a stable comparison for SARS-CoV-2 in a laboratory setting and crAssphage was relatively resilient to temperature variation. Recovery of SARS-CoV-2 in raw unprocessed samples was significantly greater when stored at 4 °C, which was supported by the sequencing data for all viruses - both time and freeze-thaw cycles negatively impacted sequencing metrics. Historical extracts stored at -80 °C that were re-quantified 12, 14 and 16 months after original quantification showed no major changes. This study highlights the importance of the fast processing and extraction of wastewater samples, following which viruses are relatively robust to storage at a range of temperatures.

Comparative assessment of Nanotrap and polyethylene glycol-based virus concentration in wastewater samples.

Wastewater-based epidemiology is now widely used in many countries for the routine monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses at a community level. However, efficient sample processing technologies are still under investigation. In this study, we compared the performance of the novel Nanotrap® Microbiome Particles (NMP) concentration method to the commonly used polyethylene glycol (PEG) precipitation method for concentrating viruses from wastewater and their subsequent quantification and sequencing. For this, we first spiked wastewater with SARS-CoV-2, influenza and measles viruses and norovirus and found that the NMP method recovered 0.4%-21% of them depending on virus type, providing consistent and reproducible results. Using the NMP and PEG methods, we monitored SARS-CoV-2, influenza A and B viruses, RSV, enteroviruses and norovirus GI and GII and crAssphage in wastewater using quantitative PCR (qPCR)-based methods and next-generation sequencing. Good viral recoveries were observed for highly abundant viruses using both methods; however, PEG precipitation was more successful in the recovery of low-abundance viruses present in wastewater. Furthermore, samples processed with PEG precipitation were more successfully sequenced for SARS-CoV-2 than those processed with the NMP method. Virus recoveries were enhanced by high sample volumes when PEG precipitation was applied. Overall, our results suggest that the NMP concentration method is a rapid and easy virus concentration method for viral targets that are abundant in wastewater, whereas PEG precipitation may be more suited to the recovery and analysis of low-abundance viruses and for next generation sequencing.

Near-source passive sampling for monitoring viral outbreaks within a university residential setting.

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has proven to be a powerful tool for the population-level monitoring of pathogens, particularly severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). For assessment, several wastewater sampling regimes and methods of viral concentration have been investigated, mainly targeting SARS-CoV-2. However, the use of passive samplers in near-source environments for a range of viruses in wastewater is still under-investigated. To address this, near-source passive samples were taken at four locations targeting student hall of residence. These were chosen as an exemplar due to their high population density and perceived risk of disease transmission. Viruses investigated were SARS-CoV-2 and its variants of concern (VOCs), influenza viruses, and enteroviruses. Sampling was conducted either in the morning, where passive samplers were in place overnight (17 h) and during the day, with exposure of 7 h. We demonstrated the usefulness of near-source passive sampling for the detection of VOCs using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and next-generation sequencing (NGS). Furthermore, several outbreaks of influenza A and sporadic outbreaks of enteroviruses (some associated with enterovirus D68 and coxsackieviruses) were identified among the resident student population, providing evidence of the usefulness of near-source, in-sewer sampling for monitoring the health of high population density communities.

Innovations in genomic antimicrobial resistance surveillance.

Whole-genome sequencing of antimicrobial-resistant pathogens is increasingly being used for antimicrobial resistance (AMR) surveillance, particularly in high-income countries. Innovations in genome sequencing and analysis technologies promise to revolutionise AMR surveillance and epidemiology; however, routine adoption of these technologies is challenging, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. As part of a wider series of workshops and online consultations, a group of experts in AMR pathogen genomics and computational tool development conducted a situational analysis, identifying the following under-used innovations in genomic AMR surveillance: clinical metagenomics, environmental metagenomics, gene or plasmid tracking, and machine learning. The group recommended developing cost-effective use cases for each approach and mapping data outputs to clinical outcomes of interest to justify additional investment in capacity, training, and staff required to implement these technologies. Harmonisation and standardisation of methods, and the creation of equitable data sharing and governance frameworks, will facilitate successful implementation of these innovations.

Exploiting genomics for antimicrobial resistance surveillance at One Health interfaces.

The intersection of human, animal, and ecosystem health at One Health interfaces is recognised as being of key importance in the evolution and spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and represents an important, and yet rarely realised opportunity to undertake vital AMR surveillance. A working group of international experts in pathogen genomics, AMR, and One Health convened to take part in a workshop series and online consultation focused on the opportunities and challenges facing genomic AMR surveillance in a range of settings. Here we outline the working group's discussion of the potential utility, advantages of, and barriers to, the implementation of genomic AMR surveillance at One Health interfaces and propose a series of recommendations for addressing these challenges. Embedding AMR surveillance at One Health interfaces will require the development of clear beneficial use cases, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. Evidence of directionality, risks to human and animal health, and potential trade implications were also identified by the working group as key issues. Addressing these challenges will be vital to enable genomic surveillance technology to reach its full potential for assessing the risk of transmission of AMR between the environment, animals, and humans at One Health interfaces.

Comparison of metagenomic and targeted methods for sequencing human pathogenic viruses from wastewater.

Wastewater-based epidemiology is a powerful tool for monitoring the emergence and spread of viral pathogens at the population scale. Typical polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based methods of quantitative and genomic monitoring of viruses in wastewater provide high sensitivity and specificity. However, these methods are limited to the surveillance of target viruses in a single assay and require prior knowledge of the target genome(s). Metagenomic sequencing methods may represent a target-agnostic approach to viral wastewater monitoring, allowing for the detection of a broad range of target viruses, including potentially novel and emerging pathogens. In this study, targeted and untargeted metagenomic sequencing methods were compared with tiled-PCR sequencing for the detection and genotyping of viral pathogens in wastewater samples. Deep shotgun metagenomic sequencing was unable to generate sufficient genome coverage of human pathogenic viruses for robust genomic epidemiology, with samples dominated by bacteria. Hybrid-capture enrichment of shotgun libraries for respiratory viruses led to significant increases in genome coverage for a range of targets. Tiled-PCR sequencing led to further improvements in genome coverage compared to hybrid capture for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, enterovirus D68, norovirus GII, and human adenovirus F41 in wastewater samples. In conclusion, untargeted shotgun sequencing was unsuitable for genomic monitoring of the low virus concentrations in wastewater samples analyzed in this study. Hybrid-capture enrichment represented a viable method for simultaneous genomic epidemiology of a range of viral pathogens, while tiled-PCR sequencing provided the optimal genome coverage for individual viruses with the minimum sequencing depth. IMPORTANCE Most public health initiatives that monitor viruses in wastewater have utilized quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and whole genome PCR sequencing, mirroring techniques used for viral epidemiology in individuals. These techniques require prior knowledge of the target viral genome and are limited to monitoring individual or small groups of viruses. Metagenomic sequencing may offer an alternative strategy for monitoring a broad spectrum of viruses in wastewater, including novel and emerging pathogens. In this study, while amplicon sequencing gave high viral genome coverage, untargeted shotgun sequencing of total nucleic acid samples was unable to detect human pathogenic viruses with enough sensitivity for use in genomic epidemiology. Enrichment of shotgun libraries for respiratory viruses using hybrid-capture technology provided genotypic information on a range of viruses simultaneously, indicating strong potential for wastewater surveillance. This type of targeted metagenomics could be used for monitoring diverse targets, such as pathogens or antimicrobial resistance genes, in environmental samples.

Postpandemic rebound of adeno-associated virus type 2 (AAV2) infections temporally associated with an outbreak of unexplained severe acute hepatitis in children in the United Kingdom.

Over 1000 cases of unexplained severe acute hepatitis in children have been reported to date worldwide. An association with adeno-associated virus type 2 (AAV2) infection, a human parvovirus, prompted us to investigate the epidemiology of AAV in the United Kingdom. Three hundred pediatric respiratory samples collected before (April 03, 2009-April 03, 2013) and during (April 03, 2022) the COVID-19 pandemic were obtained. Wastewater samples were collected from 50 locations in London (August 2021-March 2022). Samples were tested for AAV using real-time polymerase chain reaction followed by sequencing. Selected adenovirus (AdV)-positive samples were also sequenced. The detection frequency of AAV2 was a sevenfold higher in 2022 samples compared with 2009-2013 samples (10% vs. 1.4%) and highest in AdV-positive samples compared with negatives (10/37, 27% vs. 5/94, 5.3%, respectively). AAV2-positive samples displayed high genetic diversity. AAV2 sequences were either very low or absent in wastewater collected in 2021 but increased in January 2022 and peaked in March 2022. AAV2 was detected in children in association with AdV of species C, with a highest frequency in 2022. Our findings are consistent with the expansion of the population of children unexposed to AAV2, leading to greater spread of the virus once distancing restrictions were lifted.

Evaluating the theoretical performance of aircraft wastewater monitoring as a tool for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance.

Air travel plays an important role in the cross-border spread of infectious diseases. During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic many countries introduced strict border testing protocols to monitor the incursion of the virus. However, high implementation costs and significant inconvenience to passengers have led public health authorities to consider alternative methods of disease surveillance at borders. Aircraft wastewater monitoring has been proposed as one such alternative. In this paper we assess the theoretical limits of aircraft wastewater monitoring and compare its performance to post-arrival border screening approaches. Using an infectious disease model, we simulate an unmitigated SARS-CoV-2 epidemic originating in a seed country and spreading to the United Kingdom (UK) through daily flights. We use a probabilistic approach to estimate the time of first detection in the UK in aircraft wastewater and respiratory swab screening. Across a broad range of model parameters, our analysis indicates that the median time between the first incursion and detection in wastewater would be approximately 17 days (IQR: 7-28 days), resulting in a median of 25 cumulative cases (IQR: 6-84 cases) in the UK at the point of detection. Comparisons to respiratory swab screening suggest that aircraft wastewater monitoring is as effective as random screening of 20% of passengers at the border, using a test with 95% sensitivity. For testing regimes with sensitivity of 85% or less, the required coverage to outperform wastewater monitoring increases to 30%. Analysis of other model parameters suggests that wastewater monitoring is most effective when used on long-haul flights where probability of defecation is above 30%, and when the target pathogen has high faecal shedding rates and reasonable detectability in wastewater. These results demonstrate the potential use cases of aircraft wastewater monitoring and its utility in a wider system of public health surveillance.

Wastewater monitoring can anchor global disease surveillance systems.

To inform the development of global wastewater monitoring systems, we surveyed programmes in 43 countries. Most programmes monitored predominantly urban populations. In high-income countries (HICs), composite sampling at centralised treatment plants was most common, whereas grab sampling from surface waters, open drains, and pit latrines was more typical in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Almost all programmes analysed samples in-country, with an average processing time of 2·3 days in HICs and 4·5 days in LMICs. Whereas 59% of HICs regularly monitored wastewater for SARS-CoV-2 variants, only 13% of LMICs did so. Most programmes share their wastewater data internally, with partnering organisations, but not publicly. Our findings show the richness of the existing wastewater monitoring ecosystem. With additional leadership, funding, and implementation frameworks, thousands of individual wastewater initiatives can coalesce into an integrated, sustainable network for disease surveillance-one that minimises the risk of overlooking future global health threats.

Wastewater monitoring for detection of public health markers during the COVID-19 pandemic: Near-source monitoring of schools in England over an academic year.

BACKGROUND: Schools are high-risk settings for infectious disease transmission. Wastewater monitoring for infectious diseases has been used to identify and mitigate outbreaks in many near-source settings during the COVID-19 pandemic, including universities and hospitals but less is known about the technology when applied for school health protection. This study aimed to implement a wastewater surveillance system to detect SARS-CoV-2 and other public health markers from wastewater in schools in England. METHODS: A total of 855 wastewater samples were collected from 16 schools (10 primary, 5 secondary and 1 post-16 and further education) over 10 months of school term time. Wastewater was analysed for SARS-CoV-2 genomic copies of N1 and E genes by RT-qPCR. A subset of wastewater samples was sent for genomic sequencing, enabling determination of the presence of SARS-CoV-2 and emergence of variant(s) contributing to COVID-19 infections within schools. In total, >280 microbial pathogens and >1200 AMR genes were screened using RT-qPCR and metagenomics to consider the utility of these additional targets to further inform on health threats within the schools. RESULTS: We report on wastewater-based surveillance for COVID-19 within English primary, secondary and further education schools over a full academic year (October 2020 to July 2021). The highest positivity rate (80.4%) was observed in the week commencing 30th November 2020 during the emergence of the Alpha variant, indicating most schools contained people who were shedding the virus. There was high SARS-CoV-2 amplicon concentration (up to 9.2x106 GC/L) detected over the summer term (8th June - 6th July 2021) during Delta variant prevalence. The summer increase of SARS-CoV-2 in school wastewater was reflected in age-specific clinical COVID-19 cases. Alpha variant and Delta variant were identified in the wastewater by sequencing of samples collected from December to March and June to July, respectively. Lead/lag analysis between SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in school and WWTP data sets show a maximum correlation between the two-time series when school data are lagged by two weeks. Furthermore, wastewater sample enrichment coupled with metagenomic sequencing and rapid informatics enabled the detection of other clinically relevant viral and bacterial pathogens and AMR. CONCLUSIONS: Passive wastewater monitoring surveillance in schools can identify cases of COVID-19. Samples can be sequenced to monitor for emerging and current variants of concern at the resolution of school catchments. Wastewater based monitoring for SARS-CoV-2 is a useful tool for SARS-CoV-2 passive surveillance and could be applied for case identification and containment, and mitigation in schools and other congregate settings with high risks of transmission. Wastewater monitoring enables public health authorities to develop targeted prevention and education programmes for hygiene measures within undertested communities across a broad range of use cases.

Dynamic population normalisation in wastewater-based epidemiology for improved understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 prevalence: a multi-site study.

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is a valuable tool for monitoring the circulation of COVID-19. However, while variations in population size are recognised as major sources of uncertainty, wastewater SARS-CoV-2 measurements are not routinely population-normalised. This paper aims to determine whether dynamic population normalisation significantly alters SARS-CoV-2 dynamics observed through wastewater monitoring, and whether it is beneficial or necessary to provide an understanding of COVID-19 epidemiology. Data from 394 sites in England are used, and normalisation is implemented based on ammoniacal nitrogen and orthophosphate concentrations. Raw and normalised wastewater SARS-CoV-2 metrics are evaluated at the site and spatially aggregated levels are compared against indicators of prevalence based on the Coronavirus Infection Survey and Test and Trace polymerase chain reaction test results. Normalisation is shown, on average, to have a limited impact on overall temporal trends. However, significant variability in the degree to which it affects local-level trends is observed. This is not evident from previous WBE studies focused on single sites and, critically, demonstrates that while the impact of normalisation on SARS-CoV-2 trends is small on average, this may not always be the case. When averaged across many sites, normalisation strengthens the correlation between wastewater SARS-CoV-2 data and prevalence indicators; however, confidence in the improvement is low.

Optimised protocol for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater using reverse complement PCR-based whole-genome sequencing.

Monitoring the spread of viral pathogens in the population during epidemics is crucial for mounting an effective public health response. Understanding the viral lineages that constitute the infections in a population can uncover the origins and transmission patterns of outbreaks and detect the emergence of novel variants that may impact the course of an epidemic. Population-level surveillance of viruses through genomic sequencing of wastewater captures unbiased lineage data, including cryptic asymptomatic and undiagnosed infections, and has been shown to detect infection outbreaks and novel variant emergence before detection in clinical samples. Here, we present an optimised protocol for quantification and sequencing of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in influent wastewater, used for high-throughput genomic surveillance in England during the COVID-19 pandemic. This protocol utilises reverse compliment PCR for library preparation, enabling tiled amplification across the whole viral genome and sequencing adapter addition in a single step to enhance efficiency. Sequencing of synthetic SARS-CoV-2 RNA provided evidence validating the efficacy of this protocol, while data from high-throughput sequencing of wastewater samples demonstrated the sensitivity of this method. We also provided guidance on the quality control steps required during library preparation and data analysis. Overall, this represents an effective method for high-throughput sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater which can be applied to other viruses and pathogens of humans and animals.

Evaluation of variant calling algorithms for wastewater-based epidemiology using mixed populations of SARS-CoV-2 variants in synthetic and wastewater samples.

Wastewater-based epidemiology has been used extensively throughout the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 19) pandemic to detect and monitor the spread and prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) and its variants. It has proven an excellent, complementary tool to clinical sequencing, supporting the insights gained and helping to make informed public-health decisions. Consequently, many groups globally have developed bioinformatics pipelines to analyse sequencing data from wastewater. Accurate calling of mutations is critical in this process and in the assignment of circulating variants; yet, to date, the performance of variant-calling algorithms in wastewater samples has not been investigated. To address this, we compared the performance of six variant callers (VarScan, iVar, GATK, FreeBayes, LoFreq and BCFtools), used widely in bioinformatics pipelines, on 19 synthetic samples with known ratios of three different SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) (Alpha, Beta and Delta), as well as 13 wastewater samples collected in London between the 15th and 18th December 2021. We used the fundamental parameters of recall (sensitivity) and precision (specificity) to confirm the presence of mutational profiles defining specific variants across the six variant callers. Our results show that BCFtools, FreeBayes and VarScan found the expected variants with higher precision and recall than GATK or iVar, although the latter identified more expected defining mutations than other callers. LoFreq gave the least reliable results due to the high number of false-positive mutations detected, resulting in lower precision. Similar results were obtained for both the synthetic and wastewater samples.

Wastewater-based monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 at UK airports and its potential role in international public health surveillance.

It is well established that air travel plays a key role in the global spread of many enteric and respiratory diseases, including COVID-19. Even with travel restrictions (e.g. mask wearing, negative COVID-19 test prior to departure), SARS-CoV-2 may be transmitted by asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic individuals carrying the virus. Due to the limitation of current clinical surveillance approaches, complementary methods need to be developed to allow estimation of the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 entry across international borders. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) represents one such approach, allowing the unbiased sampling of SARS-CoV-2 carriage by passenger cohorts entering via airports. In this study, we monitored sewage in samples from terminals (n = 150) and aircraft (n = 32) at three major international airports in the UK for 1-3 weeks in March 2022. As the raw samples were more turbid than typical municipal wastewater, we used beef extract treatment followed by polyethylene glycol (PEG) precipitation to concentrate viruses, followed by reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 and a faecal indicator virus, crAssphage. All samples taken from sewers at the arrival terminals of Heathrow and Bristol airports, and 85% of samples taken from sites at Edinburgh airport, were positive for SARS-CoV-2. This suggests a high COVID-19 prevalence among passengers and/or airport staff members. Samples derived from aircraft also showed 93% SARS-CoV-2 positivity. No difference in viral prevalence was found before and after COVID-19 travel restrictions were lifted. Our results suggest that WBE is a useful tool for monitoring the global transfer rate of human pathogens and other disease-causing agents across international borders and should form part of wider international efforts to monitor and contain the spread of future disease outbreaks.

Wastewater-based epidemiology for comprehensive community health diagnostics in a national surveillance study: Mining biochemical markers in wastewater.

This manuscript showcases results from a large scale and comprehensive wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) study focussed on multi-biomarker suite analysis of both chemical and biological determinants in 10 cities and towns across England equating to a population of ∼7 million people. Multi-biomarker suite analysis, describing city metabolism, can provide a holistic understanding to encompass all of human, and human-derived, activities of a city in a single model: from lifestyle choices (e.g. caffeine intake, nicotine) through to health status (e.g. prevalence of pathogenic organisms, usage of pharmaceuticals as proxy for non-communicable disease, NCD, conditions or infectious disease status), and exposure to harmful chemicals due to environmental and industrial sources (e.g. pesticide intake via contaminated food and industrial exposure). Population normalised daily loads (PNDLs) of many chemical markers were found, to a large extent, driven by the size of population contributing to wastewater (especially NCDs). However, there are several exceptions providing insights into chemical intake that can inform either disease status in various communities or unintentional exposure to hazardous chemicals: e.g. very high PNDLs of ibuprofen in Hull resulting from its direct disposal (confirmed by ibuprofen/2-hydroxyibuprofen ratios) and bisphenol A (BPA) in Hull, Lancaster and Portsmouth likely related to industrial discharge. An importance for tracking endogenous health markers such as 4-hydroxy-2-nonenal-mercapturic acid (HNE-MA, an oxidative stress marker) as a generic marker of health status in communities was observed due to increased levels of HNE-MA seen at Barnoldswick wastewater treatment plant that coincided with higher-than-average paracetamol usage and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in this community. PNDLs of virus markers were found to be highly variable. Being very prevalent in communities nationwide during sampling, SARS-CoV-2 presence in wastewater was to a large extent community driven. The same applies to the fecal marker virus, crAssphage, which is very prevalent in urban communities. In contrast, norovirus and enterovirus showed much higher variability in prevalence across all sites investigated, with clear cases of localized outbreaks in some cities while maintaining low prevalence in other locations. In conclusion, this study clearly demonstrates the potential for WBE to provide an integrated assessment of community health which can help target and validate policy interventions aimed at improving public health and wellbeing.

A spatio-temporal framework for modelling wastewater concentration during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The potential utility of wastewater-based epidemiology as an early warning tool has been explored widely across the globe during the current COVID-19 pandemic. Methods to detect the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater were developed early in the pandemic, and extensive work has been conducted to evaluate the relationship between viral concentration and COVID-19 case numbers at the catchment areas of sewage treatment works (STWs) over time. However, no attempt has been made to develop a model that predicts wastewater concentration at fine spatio-temporal resolutions covering an entire country, a necessary step towards using wastewater monitoring for the early detection of local outbreaks. We consider weekly averages of flow-normalised viral concentration, reported as the number of SARS-CoV-2N1 gene copies per litre (gc/L) of wastewater available at 303 STWs over the period between 1 June 2021 and 30 March 2022. We specify a spatially continuous statistical model that quantifies the relationship between weekly viral concentration and a collection of covariates covering socio-demographics, land cover and virus associated genomic characteristics at STW catchment areas while accounting for spatial and temporal correlation. We evaluate the model's predictive performance at the catchment level through 10-fold cross-validation. We predict the weekly viral concentration at the population-weighted centroid of the 32,844 lower super output areas (LSOAs) in England, then aggregate these LSOA predictions to the Lower Tier Local Authority level (LTLA), a geography that is more relevant to public health policy-making. We also use the model outputs to quantify the probability of local changes of direction (increases or decreases) in viral concentration over short periods (e.g. two consecutive weeks). The proposed statistical framework can predict SARS-CoV-2 viral concentration in wastewater at high spatio-temporal resolution across England. Additionally, the probabilistic quantification of local changes can be used as an early warning tool for public health surveillance.

Rapid Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Variant-Associated Mutations in Wastewater Using Real-Time RT-PCR.

Within months of the COVID-19 pandemic being declared on March 20, 2020, novel, more infectious variants of SARS-CoV-2 began to be detected in geospatially distinct regions of the world. With international travel being a lead cause of spread of the disease, the importance of rapidly identifying variants entering a country is critical. In this study, we utilized wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) to monitor the presence of variants in wastewater generated in managed COVID-19 quarantine facilities for international air passengers entering the United Kingdom. Specifically, we developed multiplex reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) assays for the identification of defining mutations associated with Beta (K417N), Gamma (K417T), Delta (156/157DEL), and Kappa (E154K) variants which were globally prevalent at the time of sampling (April to July 2021). The assays sporadically detected mutations associated with the Beta, Gamma, and Kappa variants in 0.7%, 2.3%, and 0.4% of all samples, respectively. The Delta variant was identified in 13.3% of samples, with peak detection rates and concentrations observed in May 2021 (24%), concurrent with its emergence in the United Kingdom. The RT-qPCR results correlated well with those from sequencing, suggesting that PCR-based detection is a good predictor for variant presence; although, inadequate probe binding may lead to false positive or negative results. Our findings suggest that WBE coupled with RT-qPCR may be used as a rapid, initial assessment to identify emerging variants at international borders and mass quarantining facilities. IMPORTANCE With the global spread of COVID-19, it is essential to identify emerging variants which may be more harmful or able to escape vaccines rapidly. To date, the gold standard to assess variants circulating in communities has been the sequencing of the S gene or the whole genome of SARS-CoV-2; however, that approach is time-consuming and expensive. In this study, we developed two duplex RT-qPCR assays to detect and quantify defining mutations associated with the Beta, Gamma, Delta, and Kappa variants. The assays were validated using RNA extracts derived from wastewater samples taken at quarantine facilities. The results showed good correlation with the results of sequencing and demonstrated the emergence of the Delta variant in the United Kingdom in May 2021. The assays developed here enable the assessment of variant-specific mutations within 2 h after the RNA extract was generated which is essential for outbreak rapid response.

Suitability of aircraft wastewater for pathogen detection and public health surveillance.

International air travel is now widely recognised as one of the primary mechanisms responsible for the transnational movement and global spread of SARS-CoV-2. Monitoring the viral load and novel lineages within human-derived wastewater collected from aircraft and at air transport hubs has been proposed as an effective way to monitor the importation frequency of viral pathogens. The success of this approach, however, is highly dependent on the bathroom and defecation habits of air passengers during their journey. In this study of UK adults (n = 2103), we quantified the likelihood of defecation prior to departure, on the aircraft and upon arrival on both short- and long-haul flights. The results were then used to assess the likelihood of capturing the signal from infected individuals at UK travel hubs. To obtain a representative cross-section of the population, the survey was stratified by geographical region, gender, age, parenting status, and social class. We found that an individual's likelihood to defecate on short-haul flights (< 6 h in duration) was low (< 13 % of the total), but was higher on long-haul flights (< 36 %; > 6 h in duration). This behaviour pattern was higher among males and younger age groups. The maximum likelihood of defecation was prior to departure (< 39 %). Based on known SARS-CoV-2 faecal shedding rates (30-60 %) and an equal probability of infected individuals being on short- (71 % of inbound flights) and long-haul flights (29 %), we estimate that aircraft wastewater is likely to capture ca. 8-14 % of SARS-CoV-2 cases entering the UK. Monte Carlo simulations predicted that SARS-CoV-2 would be present in wastewater on 14 % of short-haul flights and 62 % of long-haul flights under current pandemic conditions. We conclude that aircraft wastewater alone is insufficient to effectively monitor all the transboundary entries of faecal-borne pathogens but can form part of a wider strategy for public heath surveillance at national borders.

Sustained detection of type 2 poliovirus in London sewage between February and July, 2022, by enhanced environmental surveillance.

BACKGROUND: The international spread of poliovirus exposes all countries to the risk of outbreaks and is designated a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by WHO. This risk can be exacerbated in countries using inactivated polio vaccine, which offers excellent protection against paralysis but is less effective than oral vaccine against poliovirus shedding, potentially allowing circulation without detection of paralytic cases for long periods of time. Our study investigated the molecular properties of type 2 poliovirus isolates found in sewage with an aim to detect virus transmission in the community. METHODS: We performed environmental surveillance in London, UK, testing sewage samples using WHO recommended methods that include concentration, virus isolation in cell culture, and molecular characterisation. We additionally implemented direct molecular detection and determined whole-genome sequences of every isolate using novel nanopore protocols. FINDINGS: 118 genetically linked poliovirus isolates related to the serotype 2 Sabin vaccine strain were detected in 21 of 52 sequential sewage samples collected in London between Feb 8 and July 4, 2022. Expansion of environmental surveillance sites in London helped localise transmission to several boroughs in north and east London. All isolates have lost two key attenuating mutations, are recombinants with a species C enterovirus, and an increasing proportion (20 of 118) meet the criterion for a vaccine-derived poliovirus, having six to ten nucleotide changes in the gene coding for VP1 capsid protein. INTERPRETATION: Environmental surveillance allowed early detection of poliovirus importation and circulation in London, permitting a rapid public health response, including enhanced surveillance and an inactivated polio vaccine campaign among children aged 1-9 years. Whole-genome sequences generated through nanopore sequencing established linkage of isolates and confirmed transmission of a unique recombinant poliovirus lineage that has now been detected in Israel and the USA. FUNDING: Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, UK Health Security Agency, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute for Health Research Medical Research Council.