Bodyweight change aids prediction of survival in chronic equine grass sickness.

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Objective criteria for predicting survival of chronic grass sickness cases are currently lacking. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether the rate and/or magnitude of bodyweight change during hospitalisation of chronic grass sickness cases can provide an objective predictor of survival to discharge from hospital. Clinicians' recorded indication(s) for euthanasia were also reviewed. STUDY DESIGN: Single centre retrospective observational study. METHODS: Case records of all horses admitted for management of chronic grass sickness to The Dick Vet Equine Hospital between 1998 and 2013 were analysed. Case background, survival to hospital discharge, indication(s) for euthanasia, disease duration at admission and bodyweight changes during the hospitalisation period were analysed, and data for survivors and nonsurvivors compared. Percentage weight change was calculated for 7 day intervals up to 28 days (0-7, 7-14, 14-21, 21-28 days) and for entire periods from the first weight recorded (0-7, 0-14, 0-21, 0-28 days). These results were used to estimate survival probability conditional on weight change. RESULTS: The study sample comprised 213 horses, with 114 survivors (53.5%) and 99 (46.5%) nonsurvivors. Compared with nonsurvivors, survivors had significantly lower median maximum bodyweight loss as a percentage of first weight (survivors 5.9%, interquartile range 1.8-13.5; nonsurvivors 12.7%, 6.4-17.3). Throughout all time periods analysed, survivors had significantly lower median bodyweight loss than nonsurvivors, but no specific time period was more predictive of survival. Highest percentages of total bodyweight loss for individual horses were comparable for survivors (36%) and nonsurvivors (37%). Survival prediction curves reporting percentage survival rates for all time periods analysed provided data to aid prediction of chronic grass sickness survival. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, nonsurvivors had greater bodyweight loss than survivors. Rapidity and magnitude of bodyweight loss were equally predictive of outcome. Percentage survival prediction curves provide objective data to aid discussion of prognosis, but greater predictive specificity with associated sensitivity is required for clinical decision making in individual cases.

Prevalence of Clostridium perfringens in faeces and ileal contents from grass sickness affected horses: comparisons with 3 control populations.

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: While previous studies have demonstrated an association between equine grass sickness (EGS) and the presence of Clostridium botulinum within ileal contents and faeces, no such associations with other intestinal-derived anaerobic bacteria have been extensively investigated. HYPOTHESIS: The prevalence of C. perfringens in the ileal contents and faeces of EGS horses is greater than control horses; the detection of C. perfringens in faeces by ELISA could be diagnostically beneficial in a clinical setting. METHODS: The prevalence of C. perfringens in faeces from EGS horses and healthy grazing control horses was determined by both selective culture and ELISA to permit both validation of the ELISA and inter-group comparisons. Additionally, the prevalence of C. perfringens (ELISA) in ileal contents from EGS horses was compared with that for control horses with nongastrointestinal disease. Finally, the prevalence of C. perfringens (ELISA) in faeces from EGS cases was compared with that from both horses with which they shared pasture at the time of disease onset and non-EGS colic horses. RESULTS: When compared with culture, the ELISA had a sensitivity and specificity of 86 and 98%, respectively. The prevalence of C. perfringens in faeces as determined by both culture and ELISA was significantly higher (P<0.001) for EGS horses (7/9 and 15/37, respectively) than for healthy grazing controls (0/60 and 1/74, respectively). The prevalence of C. perfringens in ileal contents from EGS horses (5/10) was greater than that for horses with nongastrointestinal disease (1/12) at a level that approached significance (P = 0.056). EGS cases had a significantly greater prevalence of C. perfringens in faeces (15/37) than co-grazing horses (1/18) and colic (1/16) horses. The specificity (93%) and PPV (94%) of the detection of C. perfringens by ELISA on faecal samples in relation to disease status (EGS compared with colic horses) was good. Sensitivity (41%) and NPV (39%) were poor. CONCLUSIONS AND POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: The use of a commercial ELISA to detect faecal C. perfringens may be diagnostically beneficial when differentiating EGS cases from colic cases, although further work is required to fully evaluate its potential.

Evaluation of synaptophysin as an immunohistochemical marker for equine grass sickness.

It has been proposed that synaptophysin, an abundant integral membrane protein of synaptic vesicles, is an immunohistochemical marker for degenerating neurons in equine grass sickness (GS). In the present study, a statistically generated decision tree based on assessment of synaptophysin-immunolabelled ileal sections facilitated correct differentiation of all 20 cases of GS and 24 cases of non-GS disease (comprising eight horses with colic, six with neuroparalytic botulism and 10 controls). This technique also facilitated correct diagnosis of GS in all three cases that had been erroneously classified as having non-GS disease based on conventional interpretation of haematoxylin and eosin-stained cryostat sections of ileal surgical biopsies. Further prospective studies involving larger numbers of horses are required to fully validate this decision tree. In contrast to GS, botulism did not alter ileal neuron density or synaptophysin labelling, indicating that different mechanisms cause neuronal damage and/or dysfunction in GS and botulism.