Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Multilevel Modelling of Patient-Reported Quality of Life following Prostate Cancer Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Globally, prostate cancer is the second leading cause of cancer deaths among males. It is the most commonly diagnosed cancer in Australia. The quality of life of prostate cancer patients is poorer when compared to the general population due to the disease itself and its related complications. However, there is limited research on the geographic pattern of quality of life and its risk factors in Victoria. Therefore, an examination of the spatio-temporal pattern and risk factors of poor quality of life, along with the impact of spatial weight matrices on estimates and model performance, was conducted. METHOD: A retrospective study was undertaken based on the Prostate Cancer Outcome Registry-Victoria data. Patient data (n = 5238) were extracted from the Prostate Cancer Outcome Registry, a population-based clinical quality outcome assessment from 2015 to 2021. A Bayesian spatio-temporal multilevel model was fitted to identify risk factors for poor quality of life. This study also evaluated the impact of distance- and adjacency-based spatial weight matrices. Model convergence was assessed using Gelman-Rubin statistical plots, and model comparison was based on the Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion. RESULTS: A total of 1906 (36.38%) prostate cancer patients who had undergone surgery experienced poor quality of life in our study. Belonging to the age group between 76 and 85 years (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2.90, 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.39, 2.08), having a prostate-specific antigen level between 10.1 and 20.0 (AOR = 1.33, 95% CrI: 1.12, 1.58), and being treated in a public hospital (AOR = 1.35, 95% CrI: 1.17, 1.53) were significantly associated with higher odds of poor quality of life. Conversely, residing in highly accessible areas (AOR = 0.60, 95% CrI: 0.38, 0.94) was significantly associated with lower odds of poor prostate-specific antigen levels. Variations in estimates and model performance were observed depending on the choice of spatial weight matrices. CONCLUSION: Belonging to an older age group, having a high prostate-specific antigen level, receiving treatment in public hospitals, and remoteness were statistically significant factors linked to poor quality of life. Substantial spatio-temporal variations in poor quality of life were observed in Victoria across local government areas. The distance-based weight matrix performed better than the adjacency-based matrix. This research finding highlights the need to reduce geographical disparities in quality of life. The statistical methods developed in this study may also be useful to apply to other population-based clinical registry settings.

Occupational injuries caused by fire and smoke in Victoria, Australia, 2003-2021: a descriptive study.

OBJECTIVES: Hospital attendance related to fire, flame or smoke exposure is commonly associated with work. The aim of this study was to examine time trends and risk factors for work-related fire/flame/smoke injuries in Victoria, Australia. METHODS: This study was based on emergency department (ED) presentation records from the Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset, 2003-2021. Cases were people aged 15-74 years with injury-related ED presentations, if cause of injury was recorded as fire/flame/smoke, based on coded data and/or narratives. Work-related rates were calculated per employed persons; non-work rates were calculated per population. Work-related and non-work-related cases were compared using logistic regression modelling. RESULTS: There were 11 838 ED presentations related to fire/flame/smoke: 1864 (15.7%) were work-related. Non-work-related rates were 12.3 ED presentations per 100 000 population, and work-related rates were 3.43 per 100 000 employed persons annually. Over the study period, work-related rates decreased annually by 2.0% (p<0.0001), while non-work rates increased by 1.1% (p<0.0001). Work-related cases (vs non-work) were associated with summer (vs winter), but the association with extreme bushfire periods (Victorian 'Black Saturday' and 'Black Summer') was not statistically significant. Work-related cases were less severe than non-work-related cases, evidenced by triage status and subsequent admission. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of occupational fire/flame/smoke-related injury presentations decreased over the past two decades in Victoria, while non-work-related rates increased. This could reflect improved safety in the workplace. Hospital data, however, cannot be used to distinguish occupation or industry therefore, employment data linkage studies are recommended to further inform workplace preventive measures.

Epidemiology of work-related fall injuries resulting in hospitalisation: individual and work risk factors and severity.

OBJECTIVES: Injuries at work are common and costly for individuals and employers. A common mechanism of workplace injury is through falls, but there have been few epidemiological studies of risk factors. This study aimed to identify patient, work and injury factors associated with injuries causing hospitalisation after falling at work in Victoria, Australia. METHODS: Data came from work-related hospitalised injury admissions, identified by International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision Australian Modification codes and compensation status, from Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2022. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with same-level falls and falls from height. RESULTS: This study included 42 176 work-related injury admissions: 8669 (20.6%) fall injuries and 33 507 (79.4%) other injuries. Rates of high falls were more common in males than females (0.44 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.46) vs 0.08 (0.08, 0.09) admissions per 1000 employed), while same-level falls were more common in females than males (0.21 (0.20, 0.22) vs 0.18 (0.17, 0.18)). Patients with same-level fall injuries, relative to all other work injuries, were more likely to be older women, and have at least one chronic condition; falls from height were associated with male sex and construction work and more likely to result in intracranial, internal organ injuries and fractures and longer hospital stay than non-fall injuries. CONCLUSION: Work-related falls were common and relatively severe. Same-level falls are relatively likely to occur in older women, the fastest-growing workplace demographic, and therefore the incidence is expected to increase. Comorbidities are an important fall risk factor. Employers could consider industry-relevant high and same-level fall prevention strategies for reducing the workplace injury burden.

In-hospital complications of work-related musculoskeletal injuries.

BACKGROUND, OBJECTIVES: Work-related musculoskeletal (MSK) injuries are a major contributor to morbidity worldwide and frequently result in hospitalisation. Hospital complications are common, costly, and largely preventable, but relevant data is required to address this. This study aimed to identify the incidence and factors associated with in-hospital complications of work-related MSK injuries. METHODS: This study is based on work-related MSK hospital admission data from Victorian Admitted Episodes Database, 2016-2022. Complications were identified based on ICD-10-AM coding using CHADx (Classification of Hospital Acquired Diagnoses). Negative binomial and logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors related to in-hospital complications. RESULTS: In-hospital complications occurred in 6.3 % of work-related MSK injury admissions. In the adjusted models, ages ≥45 years, female sex, and area-level disadvantage were associated with in-hospital complications. Stay at public (vs private) hospitals, comorbidity, emergency admissions, and general anaesthesia were also associated. Complication rates were higher in hospitalised workers with direct head, neck, and trunk injuries and cumulative MSK disorders than those with direct extremities injuries and acute MSK conditions. The most common complications were cardiovascular, gastrointestinal complications and adverse drug events. CONCLUSION: This study identified patient, injury and hospital-related characteristics associated with in-hospital complications of work-related MSK injuries for informing prevention strategies and risk estimation by hospital staff and workers' compensation schemes. The results demonstrate a sizable rate of complications given the relatively young and healthy study population.

Forecasting of overall and aggressive prostate cancer incident counts at the small area level.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to forecast overall and aggressive prostate cancer counts at the local government area (LGA) level over 10 years (2019-2028) in Victoria, Australia, using Victorian Cancer Registry (2001-2018) data. METHODS: We used the Age-Period-Cohort approach to estimate the annual age-specific incidence in each LGA and used Bayesian spatiotemporal models that account for non-linear temporal trends and area-level risk factors. We evaluated the models' performance by withholding and comparing forecasts with the 2014-2018 data. RESULTS: There were 80,449 prostate cancer cases between 2001 and 2018, with an overall increasing trend. Compared to 2001, prostate cancer incidence increased by 69%, from 3049 to 5167 cases in 2018. Prostate cancer counts are expected to reach 7631 cases in 2028, a further 48% increase. Unexplained area-level spatial variation was substantially reduced after adjusting for the area-level elderly population. Aggressive prostate cancer cases increased by 107% between 2001 and 2018 and are expected to rise by 123% increase in 2028. The proportion of aggressive prostate cancer cases will increase to 31% in 2028 from 20% in 2018. By 2028, overall and aggressive prostate cancer cases are projected to be increasing in 66% and 61% of LGAs. CONCLUSION: Prostate cancer cases are projected to rise at the state level and most LGAs in the next 10 years, with much steeper increases in aggressive cases. Population growth and an ageing population have primarily contributed to this rise besides prostate-specific antigen testing. These prediction estimates help inform prostate cancer burden and facilitate efficient healthcare delivery.

Forecasting of Lung Cancer Incident Cases at the Small-Area Level in Victoria, Australia.

Predicting lung cancer cases at the small-area level is helpful to quantify the lung cancer burden for health planning purposes at the local geographic level. Using Victorian Cancer Registry (2001-2018) data, this study aims to forecast lung cancer counts at the local government area (LGA) level over the next ten years (2019-2028) in Victoria, Australia. We used the Age-Period-Cohort approach to estimate the annual age-specific incidence and utilised Bayesian spatio-temporal models that account for non-linear temporal trends and area-level risk factors. Compared to 2001, lung cancer incidence increased by 28.82% from 1353 to 1743 cases for men and 78.79% from 759 to 1357 cases for women in 2018. Lung cancer counts are expected to reach 2515 cases for men and 1909 cases for women in 2028, with a corresponding 44% and 41% increase. The majority of LGAs are projected to have an increasing trend for both men and women by 2028. Unexplained area-level spatial variation substantially reduced after adjusting for the elderly population in the model. Male and female lung cancer cases are projected to rise at the state level and in each LGA in the next ten years. Population growth and an ageing population largely contributed to this rise.

A multi-level spatio-temporal analysis on prostate cancer outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Geographic and temporal variation in positive surgical margins (PSM) for prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy (RP) has been observed. However, it is unclear how much of this variation could be attributed to patient, surgeon, institution, or socioeconomic-related factors and the impact of PSM on death among localized prostate cancer patients. METHODS: This study aimed to assess the independent and relative contribution of the patient, surgeon, institution and area-level risk factors on geographic and temporal variation of PSM and evaluate the impact of PSM on five-year all-cause and prostate cancer-specific mortality among localized prostate cancer patients. Within the hierarchical-related regression approach, we utilised Bayesian spatial-temporal multi-level models to study individual and area-level predictors with the outcomes, while accounting for geographically structured and unstructured correlation and non-linear trends. RESULTS: Individual-level data included 10,075 localized prostate cancer cases with RP reported to the Prostate Cancer Outcomes Registry Victoria between 2009 and 2018. Area-level data comprised socio-economic disadvantage and remoteness data at the local government area level in Victoria, Australia. 26 % of patients had PSM, and the rates varied across areas by years. This variation was mainly associated with NCCN risk, followed by RP techniques, surgical institution type, surgeon volume and socio-economic disadvantage. Intermediate (Odds ratio/OR = 1.21,95 % credible interval/Crl = 1.05-1.41), high/very-high risk groups (OR = 2.24,95 % Crl = 1.91-2.64) and public surgical institution (OR = 1.64, 95 % Crl = 1.46-1.84) were independently associated with a higher likelihood of PSM. Robot-assisted (OR = 0.61, 95 % Crl = 0.55-0.68), laparoscopic RP (OR = 0.76, 95 % Crl = 0.62-0.93), high-volume surgeon (OR = 0.84, 95 % Crl = 0.76-0.93) and socio-economically least disadvantaged status (OR = 0.78, 95 % Crl = 0.64-0.94) showed a lower likelihood of PSM. PSM was also independently associated with a higher five-year all-cause and prostate cancer-specific mortality. CONCLUSION: Aggressive tumour characteristics and RP techniques were the main contributors to the likelihood of PSM following RP. Reducing the prevalence of PSM will generally improve prostate cancer-specific and all-cause mortality.

Geospatial and temporal variation of prostate cancer incidence.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to evaluate geographical and temporal variations in prostate cancer incidence in Victoria, Australia. STUDY DESIGN & METHODS: This study analysed 105,349 cases of incident prostate cancer between 1982 and 2016 from the population-based Victorian Cancer Registry. We performed Poisson regression analyses to identify an association between an annual number of prostate cancer counts, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) tests and the elderly male population (≥65) after adjusting for population at risk and years. We also applied Bayesian spatial-temporal models to determine any association with prostate cancer incidence and area-level factors. RESULTS: The overall trend of the age-standardized prostate cancer incidence was increasing. The highest age-specific incidence was observed among people aged 65-74 years in the pre- and post-PSA periods. Every increase in 1000 PSA tests per 100,000 population, prostate cancer incidence increased by 17% (relative risk [RR] = 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.13-1.22). A 1% increase in the proportion of the male population (≥65) correlated with a 7% increase in prostate cancer cases (RR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.06-1.10). Compared with early PSA periods, decreasing trends of low-grade cases and growing trends of high- and intermediate-grade cases were observed after a decline in PSA test usage in late PSA periods. Men living in the most socioeconomically advantaged postal areas had a decreased risk of prostate cancer (RR = 0.914, 95% CI = 0.858-0.976). CONCLUSIONS: Age-specific risk of developing biological prostate cancer, temporal changes in PSA testing and an increasingly elderly population contributed to an increasing trend of prostate cancer incidence. When incidence trends were investigated at a more granular geographic level, socioeconomically advantaged status was associated with decreased prostate cancer risk.

Influence of timeliness and receipt of first treatment on geographic variation in non-small cell lung cancer mortality.

Mortality from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) exhibits substantial geographical disparities. However, there is little evidence on whether this variation could be attributed to patients' clinical characteristics and/or socioeconomic inequalities. This study evaluated the independent and relative contribution of the individual- and area-level risk factors on geographic variation in 2-year all-cause mortality among NSCLC patients. In the Hierarchical-related regression approach, we used the Bayesian spatial multilevel logistic regression model to combine individual- and area-level predictors with outcomes while accounting for geographically structured and unstructured correlation. Individual-level data included 3330 NSCLC cases reported to the Victoria Lung Cancer Registry between 2011 and 2016. Area-level data comprised socioeconomic disadvantage, remoteness and pollution data at the postal area level in Victoria, Australia. With the inclusion of significant individual- and area-level risk factors, timely (≤14 days) first definitive treatment (odds ratio [OR] = 0.73, 95% credible interval [Crl] = 0.56-0.94) and multidisciplinary meetings (MDM) (OR = 0.74, 95% Crl = 0.59-0.93) showed an independent association with a lower likelihood of NSCLC 2-year all-cause mortality. Timely and delayed (>14 days) first nondefinitive treatment, no treatment, advanced clinical stage, smoking, poor performance status, public hospital insurance and area-level deprivation were independently associated with a higher likelihood of 2- and 5-year all-cause mortality. NSCLC's 2-year all-cause mortality exhibited substantial geographic variation, mainly associated with timeliness and receipt of first definitive treatment, no treatment followed by patient prognostic factors with some contribution from area-level deprivation, MDM and public hospital insurance. This study highlights NSCLC patients should receive the first definitive treatment within the recommended 14-days from diagnosis.

Geospatial analysis of severe road traffic accidents in Singapore in 2013-2014

INTRODUCTION@#Injury is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity. We aimed to investigate which areas in Singapore have a significantly higher incidence of road traffic accidents (RTA) resulting in severe injuries (Tier 1), which is defined as an Injury Severity Score (ISS) greater than 15, and to develop a spatiotemporal model.@*METHODS@#Data was obtained from the National Trauma Registry. The RTA locations were geomapped onto the Singapore map, and spatial statistical techniques were used to identify hotspots with the Getis-Ord Gi* algorithm.@*RESULTS@#From 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2014, there were 35,673 people who were injured as a result of RTAs and 976 Tier 1 RTA victims. A total of 920 people were included in the geospatial analysis. Another 56 were involved in RTAs that did not occur within Singapore or had missing location data and thus were not included. 745 (81.0%) were discharged alive, whereas 175 (19.0%) did not survive to discharge (median ISS 38.00, interquartile range 30.00-48.00). Most of the Tier 1 RTA victims were motorcycle riders (50.1%, n = 461), pedestrians (21.8%, n = 201) and cyclists (9.9%, n = 91). The majority were male and aged 20-40 years, and there was a peak occurrence at 0600-0759 hours. Nine hotspots were identified (p < 0.01).@*CONCLUSION@#Information from studying hotspots of RTAs, especially those resulting in severe injuries, can be used by multiple agencies to direct resources efficiently.

Implementation of a National 5-Year Plan for Prehospital Emergency Care in Singapore and Impact on Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Outcomes From 2011 to 2016.

Background Outcomes of patients from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) vary widely globally because of differences in prehospital systems of emergency care. National efforts had gone into improving OHCA outcomes in Singapore in recent years including community and prehospital initiatives. We aimed to document the impact of implementation of a national 5-year Plan for prehospital emergency care in Singapore on OHCA outcomes from 2011 to 2016. Methods and Results Prospective, population-based data of OHCA brought to Emergency Departments were obtained from the Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study cohort. The primary outcome was Utstein (bystander witnessed, shockable rhythm) survival-to-discharge or 30-day postarrest. Mid-year population estimates were used to calculate age-standardized incidence. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify prehospital characteristics associated with survival-to-discharge across time. A total of 11 465 cases qualified for analysis. Age-standardized incidence increased from 26.1 per 100 000 in 2011 to 39.2 per 100 000 in 2016. From 2011 to 2016, Utstein survival rates nearly doubled from 11.6% to 23.1% (P=0.006). Overall survival rates improved from 3.6% to 6.5% (P<0.001). Bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation rates more than doubled from 21.9% to 56.3% and bystander automated external defibrillation rates also increased from 1.8% to 4.6%. Age ≤65 years, nonresidential location, witnessed arrest, shockable rhythm, bystander automated external defibrillation, and year 2016 were independently associated with improved survival. Conclusions Implementation of a national prehospital strategy doubled OHCA survival in Singapore from 2011 to 2016, along with corresponding increases in bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation and bystander automated external defibrillation. This can be an implementation model for other systems trying to improve OHCA outcomes.

Association between Receipt of Guideline-Concordant Lung Cancer Treatment and Individual- and Area-Level Factors: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Guideline-concordant treatment (GCT) of lung cancer has been observed to vary across geographic regions over the years. However, there is little evidence as to what extent this variation is explained by differences in patients' clinical characteristics versus contextual factors, including socioeconomic inequalities. METHODS: This study evaluated the independent effects of individual- and area-level risk factors on geographic and temporal variation in receipt of GCT among patients with lung cancer. Receipt of GCT was defined on the basis of the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines. We used Bayesian spatial-temporal multilevel models to combine individual and areal predictors and outcomes while accounting for geographically structured and unstructured correlation and linear and nonlinear trends. RESULTS: Our study included 4,854 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and small cell lung cancer (SCLC) cases, reported to the Victorian Lung Cancer Registry between 2011 and 2018. Area-level data comprised socioeconomic disadvantage and remoteness data at the local government area level in Victoria, Australia. Around 60.36% of patients received GCT, and the rates varied across geographic areas over time. This variation was mainly associated with poor performance status, advanced clinical stages, NSCLC types, public hospital insurance, area-level deprivation, and comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the need to address disparities in receipt of GCT among patients with lung cancer with poor performance status, NSCLC, advanced clinical stage, stage I-III SCLC, stage III NSCLC, public hospital insurance, and comorbidities, and living in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. IMPACT: Two-year mortality outcomes significantly improved with GCT. Interventions aimed at reducing these inequalities could help to improve lung cancer outcomes.

Genotypic Heterogeneity of Orientia tsutsugamushi in Scrub Typhus Patients and Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Co-infection, Myanmar.

Serologic and molecular surveillance of serum collected from 152 suspected scrub typhus patients in Myanmar revealed Orientia tsutsugamushi of genotypic heterogeneity. In addition, potential co-infection with severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus was observed in 5 (3.3%) patients. Both scrub typhus and severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome are endemic in Myanmar.

Phylogenetic relationships of Strongyloides species in carnivore hosts.

Strongyloides stercoralis is a parasitic nematode and a major pathogen responsible for human strongyloidiasis. The presence of this species in the dog population has led to an interest in studying the phylogenetic relationships among Strongyloides spp. in carnivore hosts. In the present study, Strongyloides spp. from various carnivore hosts (raccoon, Japanese badger, Siberian weasel, raccoon dog, masked palm civet, and domestic cat) were sought. Except for civets, Strongyloides spp. were identified in all host species. Based on 18S rDNA sequences, nine OTUs (operational taxonomy units) were identified. Molecular phylogenetic analyses using 18S28S rDNA and mitochondrial cox1 (cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1) sequences clustered them into two groups. The first group (named the stercoralis/procyonis group) was comprised of six OTUs and occurred in cats, raccoon dogs, raccoons (S. procyonis), Siberian weasels, and Japanese badgers and included S. stercoralis from humans and dogs. The second group (named the planiceps group) was made up of Strongyloides spp. from raccoon dogs (two OTUs) and one OTU from Siberian weasels. Subsequent analysis using almost the full-length nucleotide sequences of protein-coding genes in their mitochondrial genomes placed Strongyloides spp. of cats in a sister taxon position to S. stercoralis, whereas S. procyonis from raccoons was more distantly related to them. The presence of Strongyloides spp. from various carnivore hosts, which are close relatives of S. stercoralis, suggests this group of Strongyloides (the stercoralis/procyonis group) essentially evolved as parasites of carnivores, although more data on Strongyloides spp. from primate hosts are needed.

A prospective study of bloodstream infections among febrile adolescents and adults attending Yangon General Hospital, Yangon, Myanmar.

Data on causes of community-onset bloodstream infection in Myanmar are scarce. We aimed to identify etiological agents of bloodstream infections and patterns of antimicrobial resistance among febrile adolescents and adults attending Yangon General Hospital (YGH), Yangon, Myanmar. We recruited patients ≥12 years old with fever ≥38°C who attended YGH from 5 October 2015 through 4 October 2016. A standardized clinical history and physical examination was performed. Provisional diagnoses and vital status at discharge was recorded. Blood was collected for culture, bloodstream isolates were identified, and antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed. Using whole-genome sequencing, we identified antimicrobial resistance mechanisms of Enterobacteriaceae and sequence types of Enterobacteriaceae and Streptococcus agalactiae. Among 947 participants, 90 (9.5%) had bloodstream infections (BSI) of which 82 (91.1%) were of community-onset. Of 91 pathogens isolated from 90 positive blood cultures, we identified 43 (47.3%) Salmonella enterica including 33 (76.7%) serovar Typhi and 10 (23.3%) serovar Paratyphi A; 20 (22.0%) Escherichia coli; 7 (7.7%) Klebsiella pneumoniae; 6 (6.6%), Staphylococcus aureus; 4 (4.4%) yeasts; and 1 (1.1%) each of Burkholderia pseudomallei and Streptococcus agalactiae. Of 70 Enterobacteriaceae, 62 (88.6%) were fluoroquinolone-resistant. Among 27 E. coli and K. pneumoniae, 18 (66.6%) were extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producers, and 1 (3.7%) each were AmpC beta-lactamase- and carbapenemase-producers. Fluoroquinolone resistance was associated predominantly with mutations in the quinolone resistance-determining region. blaCTX-M-15 expression was common among ESBL-producers. Methicillin-resistant S. aureus was not detected. Fluoroquinolone-resistant, but not multiple drug-resistant, typhoidal S. enterica was the leading cause of community-onset BSI at a tertiary hospital in Yangon, Myanmar. Fluoroquinolone and extended-spectrum cephalosporin resistance was common among other Enterobactericeae. Our findings inform empiric management of severe febrile illness in Yangon and indicate that measures to prevent and control enteric fever are warranted. We suggest ongoing monitoring and efforts to mitigate antimicrobial resistance among community-onset pathogens.

A systematic review of Bayesian spatial-temporal models on cancer incidence and mortality.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to review the types and applications of fully Bayesian (FB) spatial-temporal models and covariates used to study cancer incidence and mortality. METHODS: This systematic review searched articles published within Medline, Embase, Web-of-Science and Google Scholar between 2014 and 2018. RESULTS: A total of 38 studies were included in our study. All studies applied Bayesian spatial-temporal models to explore spatial patterns over time, and over half assessed the association with risk factors. Studies used different modelling approaches and prior distributions for spatial, temporal and spatial-temporal interaction effects depending on the nature of data, outcomes and applications. The most common Bayesian spatial-temporal model was a generalized linear mixed model. These models adjusted for covariates at the patient, area or temporal level, and through standardization. CONCLUSIONS: Few studies (4) modelled patient-level clinical characteristics (11%), and the applications of an FB approach in the forecasting of spatial-temporally aligned cancer data were limited. This review highlighted the need for Bayesian spatial-temporal models to incorporate patient-level prognostic characteristics through the multi-level framework and forecast future cancer incidence and outcomes for cancer prevention and control strategies.

Molecular mechanisms of antimicrobial resistance and phylogenetic relationships of Salmonella enterica isolates from febrile patients in Yangon, Myanmar.

BACKGROUND: Enteric fever is common in southeast Asia. However, there is little information on the circulating Salmonella enterica strains causing enteric fever in Myanmar. METHODS: We performed antimicrobial susceptibility testing and whole genome sequencing on S. enterica bloodstream isolates from febrile patients aged ≥12 y attending two hospitals in Yangon, Myanmar, from 5 October 2015 through 4 October 2016. We identified the serovar of S. enterica, determined antimicrobial susceptibility and the molecular mechanisms of resistance. We analysed phylogenetic relationships among Myanmar S. enterica isolates and those with isolates from neighbouring countries. RESULTS: Of 73 S. enterica isolated, 39 (53%) were serovar Typhi and 34 (47%) were Paratyphi A. All isolates were susceptible to ampicillin, chloramphenicol and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole but resistant to ciprofloxacin. We identified mutations in chromosomal genes gyrA, gyrB and parC as responsible for fluoroquinolone resistance. All S. enterica Typhi isolates were of 4.3.1 subclade (formerly known as H58) and formed two closely related genotypic clusters; both clusters were most closely related to isolates from India from 2012. All S. enterica Paratyphi A were lineage C, clade C4 and were closely related. CONCLUSION: Our study describes currently circulating S. enterica serovars in Myanmar, the genetic basis of their antimicrobial resistance and provides a genotypic framework for epidemiologic study.

Ethnic Differences and Trends in ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Incidence and Mortality in a Multi-Ethnic Population.

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to compare the incidence and mortality of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) across the 3 main ethnic groups in Singapore, determine if there is any improvement in trends over the years and postulate the reasons underlying the ethnic disparity. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study consisted of 16,983 consecutive STEMI patients who sought treatment from all public hospitals in Singapore from 2007 to 2014. RESULTS: Compared to the Chinese (58 per 100,000 population in 2014), higher STEMI incidence rate was consistently observed in the Malays (114 per 100,000 population) and Indians (126 per 100,000 population). While the incidence rate for the Chinese and Indians remained relatively stable over the years, the incidence rate for the Malays rose slightly. Relative to the Indians (30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality at 9% and 13%, respectively, in 2014), higher 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality rates were observed in the Chinese (15% and 21%) and Malays (13% and 18%). Besides the Malays having higher adjusted 1-year all-cause mortality, all other ethnic disparities in 30-day and 1-year mortality risk were attenuated after adjusting for demographics, comorbidities and primary percutaneous coronary intervention. CONCLUSION: It is important to continuously evaluate the effectiveness of existing programmes and practices as the aetiology of STEMI evolves with time, and to strike a balance between prevention and management efforts as well as between improving the outcome of "poorer" and "better" STEMI survivors with finite resources.

Outcomes and modifiable resuscitative characteristics amongst pan-Asian out-of-hospital cardiac arrest occurring at night.

Studies are divided on the effect of day-night temporal differences on clinical outcomes in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). This study aimed to elucidate any differences in OHCA survival between day and night occurrence, and the factors associated with differences in survival.This was a prospective, observational study of OHCA cases across multinational Pan-Asian sites. Cases were divided according to time call received by dispatch centers into day (0700H-1900H) and night (1900H-0659H). Primary outcome was 30-day survival. Secondary outcomes were prehospital and hospital modifiable resuscitative characteristics.About 22,501 out of 55,881 cases occurred at night. Night cases were less likely to be witnessed (40.2% vs. 43.1%, P < .001), more likely to occur at home (32.5% vs. 29%, P < .001), had non-shockable initial rhythms (90.8% vs. 89.4%, P < .001), lower bystander CPR rates (36.2 vs. 37.6%, P = .001), lower bystander AED application rate (0.3% vs. 0.7%, P < .001), lower rates of prehospital defibrillation (13% vs. 14.4%, P < .001), and were less likely to receive prehospital adrenaline (9.8% vs. 11%, P < .001). 30-day survival at night was lower with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.79 (95% CI 0.73-0.86, P < .001). On multivariate logistic regression, occurrence at night was associated with decreased provision of bystander CPR, bystander AED application, and prehospital adrenaline.30-day survival was worse in OHCA occurring at night. There were circadian patterns in incidence. Bystander CPR and bystander AED application were significantly lower at night in multivariate analysis. This would at least partially explain the decreased survival at night.

Incidence of Typhoid and Paratyphoid Fevers Among Adolescents and Adults in Yangon, Myanmar.

BACKGROUND: Accurate estimates of typhoid disease burden are needed to guide policy decisions, including on vaccine use. Data on the incidence of enteric fever in Myanmar are scarce. We estimated typhoid and paratyphoid fever incidence among adolescents and adults in Yangon, Myanmar, by combining sentinel hospital surveillance with a healthcare utilization survey. METHODS: We conducted a population-based household health care utilization survey in the Yangon Region 12 March through 5 April 2018. Multipliers derived from this survey were then applied to hospital-based surveillance of Salmonella Typhi and Paratyphi A bloodstream infections from 5 October 2015 through 4 October 2016 at Yangon General Hospital (YGH) to estimate the incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers among person ≥12 years of age. RESULTS: A total of 336 households representing 1598 persons were enrolled in the health care utilization survey, and multipliers were derived based on responses to questions about healthcare seeking in the event of febrile illness. Of 671 Yangon residents enrolled over a 1-year period at YGH, we identified 33 (4.9%) with Salmonella Typhi and 9 (1.3%) with Salmonella Paratyphi A bloodstream infection. After applying multipliers, we estimated that the annual incidence of typhoid was 391 per 100 000 persons and paratyphoid was 107 per 100 000 persons. CONCLUSIONS: Enteric fever incidence is high in Yangon, Myanmar, warranting increased attention on prevention and control, including consideration of typhoid conjugate vaccine use as well as nonvaccine control measures. Research on incidence among infants and children, as well as sources and modes of transmission is needed.