Spotted lanternfly predicted to establish in California by 2033 without preventative management.

Models that are both spatially and temporally dynamic are needed to forecast where and when non-native pests and pathogens are likely to spread, to provide advance information for natural resource managers. The potential US range of the invasive spotted lanternfly (SLF, Lycorma delicatula) has been modeled, but until now, when it could reach the West Coast's multi-billion-dollar fruit industry has been unknown. We used process-based modeling to forecast the spread of SLF assuming no treatments to control populations occur. We found that SLF has a low probability of first reaching the grape-producing counties of California by 2027 and a high probability by 2033. Our study demonstrates the importance of spatio-temporal modeling for predicting the spread of invasive species to serve as an early alert for growers and other decision makers to prepare for impending risks of SLF invasion. It also provides a baseline for comparing future control options.

The Eclosion of Rhagoletis pomonella (Diptera: Tephritidae) Under Different Chill Durations and Simulated Temperate and Tropical Conditions.

The apple maggot fly, Rhagoletis pomonella (Walsh) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a serious pest of apple in North America that is subject to quarantine measures to prevent its spread to currently pest-free regions, including the tropics. How the fly may survive in warmer climates is unclear. Here, we studied the effects of exposing postchill puparia to simulated temperate and tropical environmental conditions on eclosion of R. pomonella from Washington State, U.S.A. Puparia were chilled for 0-30 wk at 3°C and then held under four postchill conditions: A = 23°C, 16:8 L:D, 40% RH; B = 26°C, 12:12 L:D, 80% RH; C = 26°C, 16:8 L:D, 80% RH; and D = 23°C, 12:12 L:D, 40% RH, with B and D representing tropical conditions and A and C temperate conditions. Within each chill duration, total numbers of flies eclosed were equally high in tropical treatment B and temperate treatment C, while they were lower in treatments A and D. Mean weeks of the first eclosion in treatments B and C were earlier than in treatment D; mean week of peak eclosion and 50% eclosion in treatments A, B, and C were earlier than in treatment D. Eclosion spans in treatments A, B, and D were generally shorter than in treatment C. Results suggest that if introduced into a humid tropical country, R. pomonella puparia from Washington State could produce adult flies, regardless of chill duration or lack of chilling during the pupal stage, but whether flies could establish there would require further study.

Low Temperature Duration and Adult Rearing Regimes Affect Eclosion of Rhagoletis indifferens (Tephritidae: Diptera).

Western cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis indifferens Curran, is a quarantine pest of sweet cherries in the Pacific Northwest of the United States that overwinters as diapausing pupae. Eclosion responses of R. indifferens puparia to different low temperature durations and postdiapause conditions affect the pest status of the fly. Here, we determined the effects of holding R. indifferens puparia at 3°C for 0, 1, 2, 5, 10, 15, and 20 wk on adult eclosion times and rates at two simulated temperate and two simulated tropical climate treatments over 40 wk. When puparia were chilled 0, 1, or 2 wk, adult eclosion across the four climate treatments displayed a bimodal distribution with low eclosion at 3 wk and high eclosion at 23-35 wk. When puparia were chilled ≤ 10 wk, there was a weaker bimodal distribution. However, when puparia were chilled 15-30 wk, eclosion was more synchronous and occurred at 5-7 wk across the four postchill climate treatments. Eclosion was greater at a postdiapause temperature of 26°C than 23°C. Timing to 50% eclosion was faster at longer photoperiod (16:8 L:D) than shorter (12:12 L:D). The bimodality of eclosion in respect to the duration of low temperature exposure may be indicative of univoltine insect species with obligate diapause that may span over two seasons.

The Establishment Risk of Lycorma delicatula (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae) in the United States and Globally.

Native to Asia, the spotted lanternfly, Lycorma delicatula (White), is an emerging pest of many commercially important plants in Korea, Japan, and the United States. Determining its potential distribution is important for proactive measures to protect commercially important commodities. The objective of this study was to assess the establishment risk of L. delicatula globally and in the United States using the ecological niche model MAXENT, with a focus on Washington State (WA), where large fruit industries exist. The MAXENT model predicted highly suitable areas for L. delicatula in Asia, Oceania, South America, North America, Africa, and Europe, but also predicted that tropical habitats are not suitable for its establishment, contrary to published information. Within the United States, the MAXENT model predicted that L. delicatula can establish in most of New England and the mid-Atlantic states, the central United States and the Pacific Coast states, including WA. If introduced, L. delicatula is likely to establish in fruit-growing regions of the Pacific Northwest. The most important environmental variables for predicting the potential distribution of L. delicatula were mean temperature of driest quarter, elevation, degree-days with a lower developmental threshold value of 11°C, isothermality, and precipitation of coldest quarter. Results of this study can be used by regulatory agencies to guide L. delicatula surveys and prioritize management interventions for this pest.

Modeling the abundance of two Rhagoletis fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) pests in Washington State, U.S.A.

Well-adapted and abundant insect pests can negatively affect agricultural production. We modeled the abundance of two Rhagoletis fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) pests, apple maggot fly, Rhagoletis pomonella (Walsh), and western cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis indifferens Curran, in Washington State (WA), U.S.A. using biologically relevant environmental variables. We tested the hypothesis that abundance of the two species is influenced by different environmental variables, based on the fact that these two species evolved in different environments, have different host plants, and that R. pomonella is an introduced pest in WA while R. indifferens is native. We collected data on fly and host plant abundance at 61 randomly selected sites across WA in 2015 and 2016. We obtained land-cover, climate, and elevation data from online sources and used these data to derive relevant landscape variables and modeled fly abundance using generalized linear models. For R. pomonella, relatively high winter mean minimum temperature, low elevation, and developed land-cover were the top variables positively related to fly abundance. In contrast, for R. indifferens, the top variables related to greater fly abundance were high Hargreaves climatic moisture and annual heat-moisture deficits (indication of drier habitats), high host plant abundance, and developed land-cover. Our results identify key environmental variables driving Rhagoletis fly abundance in WA and can be used for understanding adaptation of insects to non-native and native habitats and for assisting fly quarantine and management decisions.

Assessing the Risk of Establishment of Rhagoletis cerasi (Diptera: Tephritidae) in the United States and Globally.

The European cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis cerasi (L.) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a highly destructive pest of cherries (Prunus spp.) (Rosaceae) in Europe and Asia. In 2016, R. cerasi was detected in Ontario, Canada, and in 2017 in New York State, USA, the first records of this pest in North America. The initial detections in Canada caused concern for the major cherry-growing states of Michigan, Washington, Oregon, and California in the United States. Establishment of R. cerasi in the United States could restrict cherry exports to other markets and increase costs needed for fly control, but it is unknown if R. cerasi can establish in U.S. commercial cherry regions. Here, we used the CLIMEX ecological niche model to determine the risk of establishment of R. cerasi in the United States and globally. Within the United States under a no-irrigation scenario, R. cerasi would establish in the East and West Coasts; however, under an irrigation scenario, its distribution would expand to the major cherry-growing regions in the interior of central and eastern Washington and in California. Results also showed that if introduced, R. cerasi would likely establish in eastern China, Japan, the Koreas, Australia, New Zealand, South America, South Africa, Mexico, and Canada. Host plant (Prunus spp. and Lonicera spp. [Caprifoliaceae]) presence, although not included in models, would affect fly establishment. Our results stress the importance of surveying for R. cerasi to prevent its spread and establishment within the United States and other countries.

Current and Future Potential Risk of Establishment of Grapholita molesta (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in Washington State.

The oriental fruit moth, Grapholita molesta (Busck) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is a primary pest of stone fruits that cause significant economic damage. Larvae, which enter the host plant through shoot tips, damage shoots, and ripe fruits. Native to Asia, this pest now occurs in many fruit-growing countries, including the United States and Canada. Though the pest was previously reported from many states within the United States, its current distribution and the environmental variables that influence its distribution are not properly identified. The objectives of this study were to 1) identify the environmental factors associated with G. molesta current distribution, 2) predict the current distribution of G. molesta in Washington State (WA) using Maxent and Climex models, 3) identify those areas within WA best suited for establishment of pest free zones, areas of low pest prevalence, and pest free production areas, and 4) identify regions most at risk for further expansion of G. molesta populations as a function of climate change. The current models predicted a small portion of central WA is suitable to support G. molesta, which is consistent with observed distributions. However, climate change models predict that more areas will become suitable for the pest. These results indicate that action should be taken to monitor and reduce current populations of G. molesta to stem its potential expansion into the major commercial tree fruit production areas in the state.

Is control through utilization a cost effective Prosopis juliflora management strategy?

The invasive tree Prosopis juliflora is known to cause negative impacts on invaded ranges. High P. juliflora eradication costs have swayed developing countries to follow a new and less expensive approach known as control through utilization. However, the net benefits of this new approach have not been thoroughly evaluated. Our objective was to assess the economic feasibility of selected P. juliflora eradication and utilization approaches that are currently practiced in one of the severely affected developing countries, Ethiopia. The selected approaches include converting P. juliflora infested lands into irrigated farms (conversion), charcoal production, and seed flour production. We estimate the costs and revenues of the selected P. juliflora eradication and utilization approaches by interviewing 19 enterprise owners. We assess the economic feasibility of the enterprises by performing enterprise, break-even, investment, sensitivity, and risk analyses. Our results show that conversion to irrigated cotton is economically profitable, with Net Present Value (NPV) of 5234 US$/ha over 10 years and an interest rate of 10% per year. Conversion greatly reduces the spread of P. juliflora on farmlands. Managing P. juliflora infested lands for charcoal production with a four-year harvest cycle is profitable, with NPV of 805 US$/ha. However, the production process needs vigilant regulation to protect native plants from exploitation and caution should be taken to prevent charcoal production sites from becoming potential seed sources. Though flour from P. juliflora pods can reduce invasions by destroying viable seeds, flour enterprises in Ethiopia are unprofitable. Conversion and charcoal production can be undertaken with small investment costs, while flour production requires high investment costs. Introducing new changes in the production and management steps of P. juliflora flour might be considered to make the enterprise profitable. Our study shows that control through utilization may be a viable P. juliflora management strategy under the right environmental setting.

Using high-resolution future climate scenarios to forecast Bromus tectorum invasion in Rocky Mountain National Park.

National Parks are hallmarks of ecosystem preservation in the United States. The introduction of alien invasive plant species threatens protection of these areas. Bromus tectorum L. (commonly called downy brome or cheatgrass), which is found in Rocky Mountain National Park (hereafter, the Park), Colorado, USA, has been implicated in early spring competition with native grasses, decreased soil nitrogen, altered nutrient and hydrologic regimes, and increased fire intensity. We estimated the potential distribution of B. tectorum in the Park based on occurrence records (n = 211), current and future climate, and distance to roads and trails. An ensemble of six future climate scenarios indicated the habitable area of B. tectorum may increase from approximately 5.5% currently to 20.4% of the Park by the year 2050. Using ordination methods we evaluated the climatic space occupied by B. tectorum in the Park and how this space may shift given future climate change. Modeling climate change at a small extent (1,076 km2) and at a fine spatial resolution (90 m) is a novel approach in species distribution modeling, and may provide inference for microclimates not captured in coarse-scale models. Maps from our models serve as high-resolution hypotheses that can be improved over time by land managers to set priorities for surveys and removal of invasive species such as B. tectorum.

Mapping current and potential distribution of non-native Prosopis juliflora in the Afar region of Ethiopia.

We used correlative models with species occurrence points, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices, and topo-climatic predictors to map the current distribution and potential habitat of invasive Prosopis juliflora in Afar, Ethiopia. Time-series of MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Indices (EVI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) with 250 m2 spatial resolution were selected as remote sensing predictors for mapping distributions, while WorldClim bioclimatic products and generated topographic variables from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission product (SRTM) were used to predict potential infestations. We ran Maxent models using non-correlated variables and the 143 species- occurrence points. Maxent generated probability surfaces were converted into binary maps using the 10-percentile logistic threshold values. Performances of models were evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Our results indicate that the extent of P. juliflora invasion is approximately 3,605 km2 in the Afar region (AUC  = 0.94), while the potential habitat for future infestations is 5,024 km2 (AUC  = 0.95). Our analyses demonstrate that time-series of MODIS vegetation indices and species occurrence points can be used with Maxent modeling software to map the current distribution of P. juliflora, while topo-climatic variables are good predictors of potential habitat in Ethiopia. Our results can quantify current and future infestations, and inform management and policy decisions for containing P. juliflora. Our methods can also be replicated for managing invasive species in other East African countries.