The Establishment Risk of Lycorma delicatula (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae) in the United States and Globally.

Native to Asia, the spotted lanternfly, Lycorma delicatula (White), is an emerging pest of many commercially important plants in Korea, Japan, and the United States. Determining its potential distribution is important for proactive measures to protect commercially important commodities. The objective of this study was to assess the establishment risk of L. delicatula globally and in the United States using the ecological niche model MAXENT, with a focus on Washington State (WA), where large fruit industries exist. The MAXENT model predicted highly suitable areas for L. delicatula in Asia, Oceania, South America, North America, Africa, and Europe, but also predicted that tropical habitats are not suitable for its establishment, contrary to published information. Within the United States, the MAXENT model predicted that L. delicatula can establish in most of New England and the mid-Atlantic states, the central United States and the Pacific Coast states, including WA. If introduced, L. delicatula is likely to establish in fruit-growing regions of the Pacific Northwest. The most important environmental variables for predicting the potential distribution of L. delicatula were mean temperature of driest quarter, elevation, degree-days with a lower developmental threshold value of 11°C, isothermality, and precipitation of coldest quarter. Results of this study can be used by regulatory agencies to guide L. delicatula surveys and prioritize management interventions for this pest.

Modeling the abundance of two Rhagoletis fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) pests in Washington State, U.S.A.

Well-adapted and abundant insect pests can negatively affect agricultural production. We modeled the abundance of two Rhagoletis fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) pests, apple maggot fly, Rhagoletis pomonella (Walsh), and western cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis indifferens Curran, in Washington State (WA), U.S.A. using biologically relevant environmental variables. We tested the hypothesis that abundance of the two species is influenced by different environmental variables, based on the fact that these two species evolved in different environments, have different host plants, and that R. pomonella is an introduced pest in WA while R. indifferens is native. We collected data on fly and host plant abundance at 61 randomly selected sites across WA in 2015 and 2016. We obtained land-cover, climate, and elevation data from online sources and used these data to derive relevant landscape variables and modeled fly abundance using generalized linear models. For R. pomonella, relatively high winter mean minimum temperature, low elevation, and developed land-cover were the top variables positively related to fly abundance. In contrast, for R. indifferens, the top variables related to greater fly abundance were high Hargreaves climatic moisture and annual heat-moisture deficits (indication of drier habitats), high host plant abundance, and developed land-cover. Our results identify key environmental variables driving Rhagoletis fly abundance in WA and can be used for understanding adaptation of insects to non-native and native habitats and for assisting fly quarantine and management decisions.

Assessing the Risk of Establishment of Rhagoletis cerasi (Diptera: Tephritidae) in the United States and Globally.

The European cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis cerasi (L.) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a highly destructive pest of cherries (Prunus spp.) (Rosaceae) in Europe and Asia. In 2016, R. cerasi was detected in Ontario, Canada, and in 2017 in New York State, USA, the first records of this pest in North America. The initial detections in Canada caused concern for the major cherry-growing states of Michigan, Washington, Oregon, and California in the United States. Establishment of R. cerasi in the United States could restrict cherry exports to other markets and increase costs needed for fly control, but it is unknown if R. cerasi can establish in U.S. commercial cherry regions. Here, we used the CLIMEX ecological niche model to determine the risk of establishment of R. cerasi in the United States and globally. Within the United States under a no-irrigation scenario, R. cerasi would establish in the East and West Coasts; however, under an irrigation scenario, its distribution would expand to the major cherry-growing regions in the interior of central and eastern Washington and in California. Results also showed that if introduced, R. cerasi would likely establish in eastern China, Japan, the Koreas, Australia, New Zealand, South America, South Africa, Mexico, and Canada. Host plant (Prunus spp. and Lonicera spp. [Caprifoliaceae]) presence, although not included in models, would affect fly establishment. Our results stress the importance of surveying for R. cerasi to prevent its spread and establishment within the United States and other countries.

Is control through utilization a cost effective Prosopis juliflora management strategy?

The invasive tree Prosopis juliflora is known to cause negative impacts on invaded ranges. High P. juliflora eradication costs have swayed developing countries to follow a new and less expensive approach known as control through utilization. However, the net benefits of this new approach have not been thoroughly evaluated. Our objective was to assess the economic feasibility of selected P. juliflora eradication and utilization approaches that are currently practiced in one of the severely affected developing countries, Ethiopia. The selected approaches include converting P. juliflora infested lands into irrigated farms (conversion), charcoal production, and seed flour production. We estimate the costs and revenues of the selected P. juliflora eradication and utilization approaches by interviewing 19 enterprise owners. We assess the economic feasibility of the enterprises by performing enterprise, break-even, investment, sensitivity, and risk analyses. Our results show that conversion to irrigated cotton is economically profitable, with Net Present Value (NPV) of 5234 US$/ha over 10 years and an interest rate of 10% per year. Conversion greatly reduces the spread of P. juliflora on farmlands. Managing P. juliflora infested lands for charcoal production with a four-year harvest cycle is profitable, with NPV of 805 US$/ha. However, the production process needs vigilant regulation to protect native plants from exploitation and caution should be taken to prevent charcoal production sites from becoming potential seed sources. Though flour from P. juliflora pods can reduce invasions by destroying viable seeds, flour enterprises in Ethiopia are unprofitable. Conversion and charcoal production can be undertaken with small investment costs, while flour production requires high investment costs. Introducing new changes in the production and management steps of P. juliflora flour might be considered to make the enterprise profitable. Our study shows that control through utilization may be a viable P. juliflora management strategy under the right environmental setting.

Mapping current and potential distribution of non-native Prosopis juliflora in the Afar region of Ethiopia.

We used correlative models with species occurrence points, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices, and topo-climatic predictors to map the current distribution and potential habitat of invasive Prosopis juliflora in Afar, Ethiopia. Time-series of MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Indices (EVI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) with 250 m2 spatial resolution were selected as remote sensing predictors for mapping distributions, while WorldClim bioclimatic products and generated topographic variables from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission product (SRTM) were used to predict potential infestations. We ran Maxent models using non-correlated variables and the 143 species- occurrence points. Maxent generated probability surfaces were converted into binary maps using the 10-percentile logistic threshold values. Performances of models were evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Our results indicate that the extent of P. juliflora invasion is approximately 3,605 km2 in the Afar region (AUC  = 0.94), while the potential habitat for future infestations is 5,024 km2 (AUC  = 0.95). Our analyses demonstrate that time-series of MODIS vegetation indices and species occurrence points can be used with Maxent modeling software to map the current distribution of P. juliflora, while topo-climatic variables are good predictors of potential habitat in Ethiopia. Our results can quantify current and future infestations, and inform management and policy decisions for containing P. juliflora. Our methods can also be replicated for managing invasive species in other East African countries.