An evolutionary model of sensitive periods when the reliability of cues varies across ontogeny.

Sensitive periods are widespread in nature, but their evolution is not well understood. Recent mathematical modeling has illuminated the conditions favoring the evolution of sensitive periods early in ontogeny. However, sensitive periods also exist at later stages of ontogeny, such as adolescence. Here, we present a mathematical model that explores the conditions that favor sensitive periods at later developmental stages. In our model, organisms use environmental cues to incrementally construct a phenotype that matches their environment. Unlike in previous models, the reliability of cues varies across ontogeny. We use stochastic dynamic programming to compute optimal policies for a range of evolutionary ecologies and then simulate developmental trajectories to obtain mature phenotypes. We measure changes in plasticity across ontogeny using study paradigms inspired by empirical research: adoption and cross-fostering. Our results show that sensitive periods only evolve later in ontogeny if the reliability of cues increases across ontogeny. The onset, duration, and offset of sensitive periods-and the magnitude of plasticity-depend on the specific parameter settings. If the reliability of cues decreases across ontogeny, sensitive periods are favored only early in ontogeny. These results are robust across different paradigms suggesting that empirical findings might be comparable despite different experimental designs.

Sensitive periods, but not critical periods, evolve in a fluctuating environment: a model of incremental development.

Sensitive periods, during which the impact of experience on phenotype is larger than in other periods, exist in all classes of organisms, yet little is known about their evolution. Recent mathematical modelling has explored the conditions in which natural selection favours sensitive periods. These models have assumed that the environment is stable across ontogeny or that organisms can develop phenotypes instantaneously at any age. Neither assumption generally holds. Here, we present a model in which organisms gradually tailor their phenotypes to an environment that fluctuates across ontogeny, while receiving cost-free, imperfect cues to the current environmental state. We vary the rate of environmental change, the reliability of cues and the duration of adulthood relative to ontogeny. We use stochastic dynamic programming to compute optimal policies. From these policies, we simulate levels of plasticity across ontogeny and obtain mature phenotypes. Our results show that sensitive periods can occur at the onset, midway through and even towards the end of ontogeny. In contrast with models assuming stable environments, organisms always retain residual plasticity late in ontogeny. We conclude that critical periods, after which plasticity is zero, are unlikely to be favoured in environments that fluctuate across ontogeny.

Modeling the evolution of sensitive periods.

In the past decade, there has been monumental progress in our understanding of the neurobiological basis of sensitive periods. Little is known, however, about the evolution of sensitive periods. Recent studies have started to address this gap. Biologists have built mathematical models exploring the environmental conditions in which sensitive periods are likely to evolve. These models investigate how mechanisms of plasticity can respond optimally to experience during an individual's lifetime. This paper discusses the central tenets, insights, and predictions of these models, in relation to empirical work on humans and other animals. We also discuss which future models are needed to improve the bridge between theory and data, advancing their synergy. Our paper is written in an accessible manner and for a broad audience. We hope our work will contribute to recently emerging connections between the fields of developmental neuroscience and evolutionary biology.

Validation, comparison, and combination of algorithms for automatic detection of pulmonary nodules in computed tomography images: The LUNA16 challenge.

Automatic detection of pulmonary nodules in thoracic computed tomography (CT) scans has been an active area of research for the last two decades. However, there have only been few studies that provide a comparative performance evaluation of different systems on a common database. We have therefore set up the LUNA16 challenge, an objective evaluation framework for automatic nodule detection algorithms using the largest publicly available reference database of chest CT scans, the LIDC-IDRI data set. In LUNA16, participants develop their algorithm and upload their predictions on 888 CT scans in one of the two tracks: 1) the complete nodule detection track where a complete CAD system should be developed, or 2) the false positive reduction track where a provided set of nodule candidates should be classified. This paper describes the setup of LUNA16 and presents the results of the challenge so far. Moreover, the impact of combining individual systems on the detection performance was also investigated. It was observed that the leading solutions employed convolutional networks and used the provided set of nodule candidates. The combination of these solutions achieved an excellent sensitivity of over 95% at fewer than 1.0 false positives per scan. This highlights the potential of combining algorithms to improve the detection performance. Our observer study with four expert readers has shown that the best system detects nodules that were missed by expert readers who originally annotated the LIDC-IDRI data. We released this set of additional nodules for further development of CAD systems.