Impact of Public Health Responses During a Measles Outbreak in an Amish Community in Ohio: Modeling the Dynamics of Transmission.

We quantified measles transmissibility during a measles outbreak in Ohio in 2014 to evaluate the impact of public health responses. Case incidence and the serial interval (time between symptom onset in primary cases and secondary cases) were used to assess trends in the effective reproduction number R (the average number of secondary cases generated per case). A mathematical model was parameterized using early R values to determine the size and duration of the outbreak that would have occurred if containment measures had not been initiated, as well as the impact of vaccination. As containment started, we found a 4-fold decline in R (from approximately 4 to 1) over the course of 2 weeks and maintenance of R < 1 as control measures continued. Under a conservative scenario, the model estimated 8,472 cases (90% confidence interval (CI): 8,447, 8,489) over 195 days (90% CI: 179, 223) without control efforts and 715 cases (90% CI: 103, 1,338) over 128 days (90% CI: 117, 139) when vaccination was included; 7,757 fewer cases (90% CI: 7,130, 8,365) and 67 fewer outbreak days (90% CI: 48, 98) were attributed to vaccination. Vaccination may not account entirely for transmission reductions, suggesting that changes in community behavior (social distancing) and other control efforts (isolation, quarantining) are important. Our findings highlight the benefits of measles outbreak response and of understanding behavior change dynamics.

Assessment of the Status of Measles Elimination in the United States, 2001-2014.

We assessed the status of measles elimination in the United States using outbreak notification data. Measles transmissibility was assessed by estimation of the reproduction number, R, the average number of secondary cases per infection, using 4 methods; elimination requires maintaining R at <1. Method 1 estimates R as 1 minus the proportion of cases that are imported. Methods 2 and 3 estimate R by fitting a model of the spread of infection to data on the sizes and generations of chains of transmission, respectively. Method 4 assesses transmissibility before public health interventions, by estimating R for the case with the earliest symptom onset in each cluster (Rindex). During 2001-2014, R and Rindex estimates obtained using methods 1-4 were 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.68, 0.76), 0.66 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.70), 0.45 (95% CI: 0.40, 0.49), and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.57, 0.69), respectively. Year-to-year variability in the values of R and Rindex and an increase in transmissibility in recent years were noted with all methods. Elimination of endemic measles transmission is maintained in the United States. A suggested increase in measles transmissibility since elimination warrants continued monitoring and emphasizes the importance of high measles vaccination coverage throughout the population.

Seroprevalence of poliovirus antibodies in the Kansas City metropolitan area, 2012-2013.

No indigenous cases of poliomyelitis have occurred in the US since 1979; however the risk of importation persists until global eradication is achieved. The seropositivity rate for different age cohorts with exposures to different poliovirus vaccine types and wild virus in the US are not presently known. A convenience sample was conducted in the Kansas City metropolitan area during 2012-2103 with approximately 100 participants enrolled for each of 5 age cohorts categorized based on vaccine policy changes over time in the US. Immunization records for poliovirus vaccination were required for participants <18 y of age. We evaluated the prevalence of serum antibodies to all 3 poliovirus serotypes. Seroprevalence was evaluated by demographics as well as between polio serotypes. The overall seroprevalence to poliovirus was 90.7%, 94.4%, and 83.3%, for types 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Seroprevalence was high (88.6%-96.2%) for all 3 types of poliovirus for the 6-10 y old age group that was likely to have received a complete schedule of IPV-only vaccination. Children 2-3 y of age, who have not yet completed their full IPV series, had lower seroprevalence compared with all older age groups for types 1 and 2 (p-value <0. 05). Seroprevalence was high for all 3 types of poliovirus in the population surveyed. Seroprevalence for subjects aged 2-3 y was lower than all other age groups for serotypes 1 and 2 highlighting the importance of completing the recommended poliovirus vaccine series with a booster dose at age 4-6 y.

A Comparison of Postelimination Measles Epidemiology in the United States, 2009-2014 Versus 2001-2008.

BACKGROUND: Measles, a vaccine-preventable disease that can cause severe complications, was declared eliminated from the United States in 2000. The last published summary of US measles epidemiology was during 2001-2008. We summarized US measles epidemiology during 2009-2014. METHODS: We compared demographic, vaccination, and virologic data on confirmed measles cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during January 1, 2009-December 31, 2014 and January 1, 2001-December 31, 2008. RESULTS: During 2009-2014, 1264 confirmed measles cases were reported in the United States, including 275 importations from 58 countries and 66 outbreaks. The annual median number of cases and outbreaks during this period was 130 (range, 55-667 cases) and 10 (range, 4-23 outbreaks), respectively, compared with an annual median of 56 cases (P = .08) and 4 outbreaks during 2001-2008 (P = .04). Among US-resident case-patients during 2009-2014, children aged 12-15 months had the highest measles incidence (65 cases; 8.3 cases/million person-years), and infants aged 6-11 months had the second highest incidence (86 cases; 7.3 cases/million person-years). During 2009-2014, 865 (74%) of 1173 US-resident case-patients were unvaccinated and 188 (16%) had unknown vaccination status; of 917 vaccine-eligible US-resident case-patients, 600 (65%) were reported as having philosophical or religious objections to vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Although the United States has maintained measles elimination since 2000, measles outbreaks continue to occur globally, resulting in imported cases and potential spread. The annual median number of cases and outbreaks more than doubled during 2009-2014 compared with the earlier postelimination years. To maintain elimination, it will be necessary to maintain high 2-dose vaccination coverage, continue case-based surveillance, and monitor the patterns and rates of vaccine exemption.

Estimating enhanced prevaccination measles transmission hotspots in the context of cross-scale dynamics.

A key question in clarifying human-environment interactions is how dynamic complexity develops across integrative scales from molecular to population and global levels. Apart from its public health importance, measles is an excellent test bed for such an analysis. Simple mechanistic models have successfully illuminated measles dynamics at the city and country levels, revealing seasonal forcing of transmission as a major driver of long-term epidemic behavior. Seasonal forcing ties closely to patterns of school aggregation at the individual and community levels, but there are few explicit estimates of school transmission due to the relative lack of epidemic data at this scale. Here, we use data from a 1904 measles outbreak in schools in Woolwich, London, coupled with a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model to analyze measles incidence data. Our results indicate that transmission within schools and age classes is higher than previous population-level serological data would suggest. This analysis sheds quantitative light on the role of school-aged children in measles cross-scale dynamics, as we illustrate with references to the contemporary vaccination landscape.

A Measles Outbreak in an Underimmunized Amish Community in Ohio.

BACKGROUND: Although measles was eliminated in the United States in 2000, importations of the virus continue to cause outbreaks. We describe the epidemiologic features of an outbreak of measles that originated from two unvaccinated Amish men in whom measles was incubating at the time of their return to the United States from the Philippines and explore the effect of public health responses on limiting the spread of measles. METHODS: We performed descriptive analyses of data on demographic characteristics, clinical and laboratory evaluations, and vaccination coverage. RESULTS: From March 24, 2014, through July 23, 2014, a total of 383 outbreak-related cases of measles were reported in nine counties in Ohio. The median age of case patients was 15 years (range, <1 to 53); a total of 178 of the case patients (46%) were female, and 340 (89%) were unvaccinated. Transmission took place primarily within households (68% of cases). The virus strain was genotype D9, which was circulating in the Philippines at the time of the reporting period. Measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination coverage with at least a single dose was estimated to be 14% in affected Amish households and more than 88% in the general (non-Amish) Ohio community. Containment efforts included isolation of case patients, quarantine of susceptible persons, and administration of the MMR vaccine to more than 10,000 persons. The spread of measles was limited almost exclusively to the Amish community (accounting for 99% of case patients) and affected only approximately 1% of the estimated 32,630 Amish persons in the settlement. CONCLUSIONS: The key epidemiologic features of a measles outbreak in the Amish community in Ohio were transmission primarily within households, the small proportion of Amish people affected, and the large number of people in the Amish community who sought vaccination. As a result of targeted containment efforts, and high baseline coverage in the general community, there was limited spread beyond the Amish community. (Funded by the Ohio Department of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.).

Seroprevalence of Poliovirus Antibodies in the United States Population, 2009-2010.

BACKGROUND: Polio is eliminated in the United States, with the last indigenous transmission occurring in 1979. However, global eradication of polio has not yet been completed, so importation of poliovirus into the U.S. is still possible. Specimens from the 2009-10 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) were analyzed to evaluate population seroprevalence and assess overall risk from a poliovirus importation. METHODS: We evaluated prevalence of serum antibodies to all three poliovirus types using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey during 2009-2010. RESULTS: The overall seroprevalence to poliovirus was 93.9 % for type 1, 97.0 % for type 2, and 83.1 % for type 3. Seroprevalence was higher for type 2 compared to the other types (p < 0.001) and lower for type 3 compared to the other types (p < 0.001). There was a tendency for higher seroprevalence in the younger age groups, but this varied by serotype. CONCLUSIONS: Seroprevalence was high (83.1 %-97.0 %) for all three types of poliovirus in the US population during 2009-2010. While there were observed differences by serotype with type 2 having the highest seroprevalence and type 3 having the lowest, consistent with previous observations, no large immunity gaps to poliovirus suggesting an imminent substantial population risk from a poliovirus importation were observed at a population level.

Seroprevalence of measles, mumps, rubella and varicella antibodies in the United States population, 2009-2010.

Background. In the United States, measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella immunity is now primarily achieved through vaccination. Monitoring population immunity is necessary. Methods. We evaluated seroprevalence of antibodies to measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey during 2009-2010. Results. Measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella seroprevalence was 92.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 90.9%-93.0%), 87.6% (CI, 85.8%-89.2%), 95.3% (CI, 94.3%-96.2%), and 97.8% (CI, 97.1%-98.3%), respectively. United States (US)-born persons had lower mumps seroprevalence and higher varicella seroprevalence than non-US born persons. Conclusions. Seroprevalence was high (88%-98%) for all 4 viruses in the US population during 2009-2010.

Measles - United States, January 4-April 2, 2015.

Measles is a highly contagious, acute viral illness that can lead to complications such as pneumonia, encephalitis, and death. As a result of high 2-dose measles vaccination coverage in the United States and improved control of measles in the World Health Organization's Region of the Americas, the United States declared measles elimination (defined as interruption of year-round endemic transmission) in 2000. Importations from other countries where measles remains endemic continue to occur, however, which can lead to clusters of measles cases in the United States. To update surveillance data on current measles outbreaks, CDC analyzed cases reported during January 4-April 2, 2015. A total of 159 cases were reported during this period. Over 80% of the cases occurred among persons who were unvaccinated or had unknown vaccination status. Four outbreaks have occurred, with one accounting for 70% of all measles cases this year. The continued risk for importation of measles into the United States and occurrence of measles cases and outbreaks in communities with high proportions of unvaccinated persons highlight the need for sustained, high vaccination coverage across the country.

Individual-based modeling of potential poliovirus transmission in connected religious communities in North America with low uptake of vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Pockets of undervaccinated individuals continue to raise concerns about their potential to sustain epidemic transmission of vaccine-preventable diseases. Prior importations of live polioviruses (LPVs) into Amish communities in North America led to their recognition as a potential and identifiable linked network of undervaccinated individuals. METHODS: We developed an individual-based model to explore the potential transmission of a LPV throughout the North American Amish population. RESULTS: Our model demonstrates the expected limited impact associated with the historical importations, which occurred in isolated communities during the low season for poliovirus transmission. We show that some conditions could potentially lead to wider circulation of LPVs and cases of paralytic polio in Amish communities if an importation occurred during or after 2013. The impact will depend on the uncertain historical immunity to poliovirus infection among members of the community. CONCLUSIONS: Heterogeneity in immunization coverage represents a risk factor for potential outbreaks of polio if introduction of a LPV occurs, although overall high population immunity in North America suggests that transmission would remain relatively limited. Efforts to prevent spread between Amish church districts with any feasible measures may offer the best opportunity to contain an outbreak and limit its size.

Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis and BCG-osis in an immigrant child with severe combined immunodeficiency syndrome - Texas, 2013.

Poliovirus transmission has been eliminated in most of the world through the use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) and live, attenuated oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). In the United States, use of OPV was discontinued by the year 2000 because of the potential for vaccine-associated paralytic polio (VAPP); an average of eight cases were reported each year in the United States during 1980-2000. Polio eradication efforts in other parts of the world continue to rely on OPV to take advantage of transmission of poliovirus vaccine strains to unvaccinated persons in the population, lower cost, and ease of administration. In 2013, an infant aged 7 months who recently immigrated to the United States from India was referred to a hospital in San Antonio, Texas. The infant had fever, an enlarging skin lesion in the deltoid region with axillary lymphadenopathy, decreased activity, and inability to bear weight on the left leg, progressing to paralysis of the left leg over a 6-week period. Recognition of lymphopenia on complete blood count led to immune evaluation, which revealed the presence of severe combined immunodeficiency syndrome (SCIDS), an inherited disorder. A history of OPV and bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination in India led to the diagnoses of VAPP and BCG-osis, which were confirmed microbiologically. This report demonstrates the importance of obtaining a comprehensive clinical history in a child who has recently immigrated to the United States, with recognition that differing vaccine practices in other countries might require additional consideration of potential etiologies.

Interim CDC guidance for polio vaccination for travel to and from countries affected by wild poliovirus.

In the prevaccine era, infection with wild poliovirus (WPV) was common worldwide, with seasonal peaks and epidemics in the summer and fall in temperate areas. The incidence of poliomyelitis in the United States declined rapidly after the licensure of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) in 1955 and live oral polio vaccine (OPV) in the 1960s. The last cases of indigenously acquired WPV in the United States occurred in 1979, the last WPV case in a U.S. resident traveling abroad occurred in 1986, and the last WPV imported case was in 1993. Since 2000, the United States has exclusively used IPV, resulting in prevention of 8-10 vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis cases annually. In 2005, an unvaccinated U.S. adult traveling abroad acquired vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis after contact with an infant recently vaccinated with OPV.

Measles - United States, January 1-May 23, 2014.

Measles is a highly contagious, acute viral illness that can lead to serious complications and death. Although measles elimination (i.e., interruption of year-round endemic transmission) was declared in the United States in 2000, importations of measles cases from endemic areas of the world continue to occur, leading to secondary measles cases and outbreaks in the United States, primarily among unvaccinated persons. To update national measles data in the United States, CDC evaluated cases reported by states from January 1 through May 23, 2014. A total of 288 confirmed measles cases have been reported to CDC, surpassing the highest reported yearly total of measles cases since elimination (220 cases reported in 2011). Fifteen outbreaks accounted for 79% of cases reported, including the largest outbreak reported in the United States since elimination (138 cases and ongoing). The large number of cases this year emphasizes the need for health-care providers to have a heightened awareness of the potential for measles in their communities and the importance of vaccination to prevent measles.

Congenital rubella syndrome in child of woman without known risk factors, New Jersey, USA.

We report a case of congenital rubella syndrome in a child born to a vaccinated New Jersey woman who had not traveled internationally. Although rubella and congenital rubella syndrome have been eliminated from the United States, clinicians should remain vigilant and immediately notify public health authorities when either is suspected.

Elimination of endemic measles, rubella, and congenital rubella syndrome from the Western hemisphere: the US experience.

IMPORTANCE: To verify the elimination of endemic measles, rubella, and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) from the Western hemisphere, the Pan American Health Organization requested each member country to compile a national elimination report. The United States documented the elimination of endemic measles in 2000 and of endemic rubella and CRS in 2004. In December 2011, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention convened an external expert panel to review the evidence and determine whether elimination of endemic measles, rubella, and CRS had been sustained. OBJECTIVE: To review the evidence for sustained elimination of endemic measles, rubella, and CRS from the United States through 2011. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Review of data for measles from 2001 to 2011 and for rubella and CRS from 2004 to 2011 covering the US resident population and international visitors, including disease epidemiology, importation status of cases, molecular epidemiology, adequacy of surveillance, and population immunity as estimated by national vaccination coverage and serologic surveys. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Annual numbers of measles, rubella, and CRS cases, by importation status, outbreak size, and distribution; proportions of US population seropositive for measles and rubella; and measles-mumps-rubella vaccination coverage levels. RESULTS: Since 2001, US reported measles incidence has remained below 1 case per 1,000,000 population. Since 2004, rubella incidence has been below 1 case per 10,000,000 population, and CRS incidence has been below 1 case per 5,000,000 births. Eighty-eight percent of measles cases and 54% of rubella cases were internationally imported or epidemiologically or virologically linked to importation. The few cases not linked to importation were insufficient to represent endemic transmission. Molecular epidemiology indicated no endemic genotypes. The US surveillance system is adequate to detect endemic measles or rubella. Seroprevalence and vaccination coverage data indicate high levels of population immunity to measles and rubella. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The external expert panel concluded that the elimination of endemic measles, rubella, and CRS from the United States was sustained through 2011. However, international importation continues, and health care providers should suspect measles or rubella in patients with febrile rash illness, especially when associated with international travel or international visitors, and should report suspected cases to the local health department.

The economic burden of sixteen measles outbreaks on United States public health departments in 2011.

BACKGROUND: Despite vaccination efforts and documentation of elimination of indigenous measles in 2000, the United States (US) experienced a marked increase in imported cases and outbreaks of measles in 2011. Due to the high infectiousness and potential severity of measles, these outbreaks require a vigorous response from public health institutions. The effort and resources required to respond to these outbreaks are likely to impose a significant economic burden on these institutions. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the economic burden of measles outbreaks (defined as ≥ 3 epidemiologically linked cases) on the local and state public health institutions in the US in 2011. METHODS: From the perspective of local and state public health institutions, we estimated personnel time and resources allocated to measles outbreak response in local and state public health departments, and estimated the corresponding costs associated with these outbreaks in the US in 2011. We used cost and resource utilization data from previous studies on measles outbreaks in the US and, relying on outbreak size classification based on a case-day index, we estimated costs incurred by local and state public health institutions. RESULTS: In 2011, the US experienced 16 outbreaks with 107 confirmed cases. The average duration of an outbreak was 22 days (range: 5-68). The total estimated number of identified contacts to measles cases ranged from 8936 to 17,450, requiring from 42,635 to 83,133 personnel hours. Overall, the total economic burden on local and state public health institutions that dealt with measles outbreaks during 2011 ranged from an estimated $2.7 million to $5.3 million US dollars. CONCLUSION: Investigating and responding to measles outbreaks imposes a significant economic burden on local and state health institutions. Such impact is compounded by the duration of the outbreak and the number of potentially susceptible contacts.

Mumps postexposure prophylaxis with a third dose of measles-mumps-rubella vaccine, Orange County, New York, USA.

Although the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine is not recommended for mumps postexposure prophylaxis (PEP), data on its effectiveness are limited. During the 2009-2010 mumps outbreak in the northeastern United States, we assessed effectiveness of PEP with a third dose of MMR vaccine among contacts in Orthodox Jewish households who were given a third dose within 5 days of mumps onset in the household's index patient. We compared mumps attack rates between persons who received a third MMR dose during the first incubation period after onset in the index patient and 2-dose vaccinated persons who had not. Twenty-eight (11.7%) of 239 eligible household members received a third MMR dose as PEP. Mumps attack rates were 0% among third-dose recipients versus 5.2% among 2-dose recipients without PEP (p=0.57). Although a third MMR dose administered as PEP did not have a significant effect, it may offer some benefits in specific outbreak contexts.

Viruses detected among sporadic cases of parotitis, United States, 2009-2011.

BACKGROUND: Sporadic cases of parotitis are generally assumed to be mumps, which often requires a resource-intensive public health response. This project surveyed the frequency of viruses detected among such cases. METHODS: During 2009-2011, 8 jurisdictions throughout the United States investigated sporadic cases of parotitis. Epidemiologic information, serum, and buccal and oropharyngeal swabs were collected. Polymerase chain reaction methods were used to detect a panel of viruses. Anti-mumps virus immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies were detected using a variety of methods. RESULTS: Of 101 specimens, 38 were positive for a single virus: Epstein-Barr virus (23), human herpesvirus (HHV)-6B (10), human parainfluenza virus (HPIV)-2 (3), HPIV-3 (1), and human bocavirus (1). Mumps virus, enteroviruses (including human parechovirus), HHV-6A, HPIV-1, and adenoviruses were not detected. Early specimen collection did not improve viral detection rate. Mumps IgM was detected in 17% of available specimens. Patients in whom a virus was detected were younger, but no difference was seen by sex or vaccination profile. No seasonal patterns were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the timing of specimen collection, serology results, patient vaccination status, and time of year may be helpful in assessing the likelihood that a sporadic case of parotitis without laboratory confirmation is mumps.

Prevention of measles, rubella, congenital rubella syndrome, and mumps, 2013: summary recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP).

This report is a compendium of all current recommendations for the prevention of measles, rubella, congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), and mumps. The report presents the recent revisions adopted by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) on October 24, 2012, and also summarizes all existing ACIP recommendations that have been published previously during 1998-2011 (CDC. Measles, mumps, and rubella--vaccine use and strategies for elimination of measles, rubella, and congenital rubella syndrome and control of mumps: recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices [ACIP]. MMWR 1998;47[No. RR-8]; CDC. Revised ACIP recommendation for avoiding pregnancy after receiving a rubellacontaining vaccine. MMWR 2001;50:1117; CDC. Updated recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices [ACIP] for the control and elimination of mumps. MMWR 2006;55:629-30; and, CDC. Immunization of healthcare personnel: recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). MMWR 2011;60[No. RR-7]). Currently, ACIP recommends 2 doses of MMR vaccine routinely for children with the first dose administered at age 12 through 15 months and the second dose administered at age 4 through 6 years before school entry. Two doses are recommended for adults at high risk for exposure and transmission (e.g., students attending colleges or other post-high school educational institutions, healthcare personnel, and international travelers) and 1 dose for other adults aged ≥18 years. For prevention of rubella, 1 dose of MMR vaccine is recommended for persons aged ≥12 months. At the October 24, 2012 meeting, ACIP adopted the following revisions, which are published here for the first time. These included: • For acceptable evidence of immunity, removing documentation of physician diagnosed disease as an acceptable criterion for evidence of immunity for measles and mumps, and including laboratory confirmation of disease as a criterion for acceptable evidence of immunity for measles, rubella, and mumps. • For persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, expanding recommendations for vaccination to all persons aged ≥12 months with HIV infection who do not have evidence of current severe immunosuppression; recommending revaccination of persons with perinatal HIV infection who were vaccinated before establishment of effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) with 2 appropriately spaced doses of MMR vaccine once effective ART has been established; and changing the recommended timing of the 2 doses of MMR vaccine for HIV-infected persons to age 12 through 15 months and 4 through 6 years. • For measles postexposure prophylaxis, expanding recommendations for use of immune globulin administered intramuscularly (IGIM) to include infants aged birth to 6 months exposed to measles; increasing the recommended dose of IGIM for immunocompetent persons; and recommending use of immune globulin administered intravenously (IGIV) for severely immunocompromised persons and pregnant women without evidence of measles immunity who are exposed to measles. As a compendium of all current recommendations for the prevention of measles, rubella, congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), and mumps, the information in this report is intended for use by clinicians as baseline guidance for scheduling of vaccinations for these conditions and considerations regarding vaccination of special populations. ACIP recommendations are reviewed periodically and are revised as indicated when new information becomes available.