Shock, stress or signal? Implications of freshwater flows for a top-level estuarine predator.

Physicochemical variability in estuarine systems plays an important role in estuarine processes and in the lifecycles of estuarine organisms. In particular, seasonality of freshwater inflow to estuaries may be important in various aspects of fish lifecycles. This study aimed to further understand these relationships by studying the movements of a top-level estuarine predator in response to physicochemical variability in a large, temperate south-east Australian estuary (Shoalhaven River). Mulloway (Argyrosomus japonicus, 47-89 cm total length) were surgically implanted with acoustic transmitters, and their movements and migrations monitored over two years via fixed-position VR2W acoustic receivers configured in a linear array along the length of the estuary. The study period included a high degree of abiotic variability, with multiple pulses (exponentially high flows over a short period of time) in fresh water to the estuary, as well as broader seasonal variation in flow, temperature and conductivity. The relative deviation of fish from their modal location in the estuary was affected primarily by changes in conductivity, and smaller fish (n = 4) tended to deviate much further downstream from their modal position in the estuary than larger fish (n = 8). High-flow events which coincided with warmer temperatures tended to drive mature fish down the estuary and potentially provided a spawning signal to stimulate aggregation of adults near the estuary mouth; however, this relationship requires further investigation. These findings indicate that pulse and press effects of freshwater inflow and associated physicochemical variability play a role in the movements of mulloway, and that seasonality of large freshwater flows may be important in spawning. The possible implications of river regulation and the extraction of freshwater for consumptive uses on estuarine fishes are discussed.

Environmental change drives long-term recruitment and growth variation in an estuarine fish.

How individuals respond to environmental change determines the strength and direction of biological processes like recruitment and growth that underpin population productivity. Ascertaining the relative importance of environmental factors can, however, be difficult given the numerous mechanisms through which they affect individuals. This is especially true in dynamic and complex estuarine environments. Here, we develop long-term otolith-based indices of recruitment and growth for estuary perch Percalates colonorum (Bemm River, Australia), to explore the importance of intrinsic (individual, demographic) and extrinsic (hydrologic, climatic, density-dependent) factors in driving estuarine fish productivity. Analyses involved a novel zero-inflated specification of catch curve regression and mixed effects modelling. The 39 years of recruitment and 46 years of growth data, spanning a period of environmental change including severe drought, displayed considerable inter-annual variation. Recruitment success was strongly related to high freshwater inflows during the spawning season, suggesting that these conditions act as spawning cues for adults and potentially provide favourable conditions for larvae. Individuals displayed age-dependent growth, with highest rates observed at younger ages in years characterized by warm temperatures, and to a lesser degree, greater magnitude base inflow conditions. We detected systematic among-year-class growth differences, but these were not attributable to year class strength, suggesting that environmental conditions experienced by individuals as juveniles can have long-lasting effects of greater importance to population productivity than density-dependent growth responses. The primacy of temperature in driving growth variation highlights that under-appreciated climatic variation can affect estuarine fish productivity through direct physiological and indirect food web mechanisms. We predict that climatic warming will promote individual growth in southerly populations of P. colonorum but concurrently limit recruitment due to forecast reductions in spawning season river discharge. Disparate trait responses are likely in other fishes as they respond to multiple and changing environmental drivers, making predictions of future population productivity challenging.