Where to deploy pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in sub-Saharan Africa?

OBJECTIVE: Two randomised controlled trials showed that pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) reduces HIV transmission between heterosexual men and women. We model the potential impact on transmission and cost-effectiveness of providing PrEP in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We use a deterministic, compartmental model of HIV transmission to evaluate the potential of a 5-year PrEP intervention targeting the adult population of 42 sub-Saharan African countries. We examine the incremental impact of adding PrEP at pre-existing levels of male circumcision and antiretroviral therapy (ART). The base case assumes efficacy of 68%; adherence at 80%; country coverage at 10% of the HIV-uninfected adult population; and annual costs of PrEP and ART at US$200 and US$880 per person, respectively. RESULTS: After 5 years, 390,000 HIV infections (95% UR 190,000 to 630,000) would be prevented, 24% of these in South Africa. HIV infections averted per 100 000 people (adult) would range from 500 in Lesotho to 10 in Somalia. Incremental cost-effectiveness would be US$5800/disability-adjusted life year (DALY) (95% UR 3100 to 13500). Cost-effectiveness would range from US$500/DALY in Lesotho to US$44 600/DALY in Eritrea. CONCLUSIONS: In a general adult population, PrEP is a high-cost intervention which will have maximum impact and be cost-effective only in countries that have high levels of HIV burden and low levels of male circumcision in the population. Hence, PrEP will likely be most effective in Southern Africa as a targeted intervention added to existing strategies to control the HIV pandemic.

Acculturation and its association with health-risk behaviors in a rural Latina population.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the performance of proxy measures of acculturation and to examine the association between acculturation and selected health-risk behaviors. METHODS: Participants were 1062 Latina pregnant women who received prenatal care at clinics in San Joaquin County, California between 1999 and 2001. We used the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve to characterize the sensitivity and specificity of proxy measures and regression analysis to examine health-risk behaviors. RESULTS: Using the ARSMA-II short version scale as a reference, age at immigration had the highest percentage of correctly classified individuals. Acculturation was significantly associated with a lifetime history of substance use, risky sexual behavior, low fruit consumption, and high fast-food meal consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Acculturation is an important predictor of health-risk behavior among women. Further research is needed to better understand the phenomenon and to avert associated adverse health consequences.