Guidance for triangulating data and estimates of HIV prevalence among pregnant women and coverage of PMTCT using the Spectrum AIDS Impact Module.

Background: Most countries use the Spectrum AIDS Impact Module (Spectrum-AIM), antenatal care routine HIV testing, and antiretroviral treatment data to estimate HIV prevalence among pregnant women. Non-representative programme data may lead to inaccurate estimates HIV prevalence and treatment coverage for pregnant women. Setting: 154 locations in 126 countries. Methods: Using 2023 UNAIDS HIV estimates, we calculated three ratios: (1) HIV prevalence among pregnant women to all women 15-49y (prevalence), (2) ART coverage before pregnancy to women 15-49y ART coverage (ART pre-pregnancy), and (3) ART coverage at delivery to women 15-49y ART coverage (PMTCT coverage). We developed an algorithm to identify and adjust inconsistent results within regional ranges in Spectrum-AIM, illustrated using Burkina Faso's estimates. Results: In 2022, the mean regional ratio of prevalence among pregnant women to all women ranged from 0.68 to 0.95. ART coverage pre-pregnancy ranged by region from 0.40 to 1.22 times ART coverage among all women. Mean regional PMTCT coverage ratios ranged from 0.85 to 1.51. The prevalence ratio in Burkina Faso was 1.59, above the typical range 0.62-1.04 in western and central Africa. Antenatal clinics reported more PMTCT recipients than estimated HIV-positive pregnant women from 2015 to 2019. We adjusted inputted PMTCT programme data to enable consistency of HIV prevalence among pregnant women from programmatic routine HIV testing at antenatal clinics with values typical for Western and central Africa. Conclusion: These ratios offer Spectrum-AIM users a tool to gauge the consistency of their HIV prevalence and treatment coverage estimates among pregnant women with other countries in the region.

Aetiology of vaginal discharge, urethral discharge, and genital ulcer in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review and meta-regression.

BACKGROUND: Syndromic management is widely used to treat symptomatic sexually transmitted infections in settings without aetiologic diagnostics. However, underlying aetiologies and consequent treatment suitability are uncertain without regular assessment. This systematic review estimated the distribution, trends, and determinants of aetiologies for vaginal discharge, urethral discharge, and genital ulcer in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We searched Embase, MEDLINE, Global Health, Web of Science, and grey literature from inception until December 20, 2023, for observational studies reporting aetiologic diagnoses among symptomatic populations in SSA. We adjusted observations for diagnostic test performance, used generalised linear mixed-effects meta-regressions to generate estimates, and critically appraised studies using an adapted Joanna Briggs Institute checklist. Of 4,418 identified records, 206 reports were included from 190 studies in 32 countries conducted between 1969 and 2022. In 2015, estimated primary aetiologies for vaginal discharge were candidiasis (69.4% [95% confidence interval (CI): 44.3% to 86.6%], n = 50), bacterial vaginosis (50.0% [95% CI: 32.3% to 67.8%], n = 39), chlamydia (16.2% [95% CI: 8.6% to 28.5%], n = 50), and trichomoniasis (12.9% [95% CI: 7.7% to 20.7%], n = 80); for urethral discharge were gonorrhoea (77.1% [95% CI: 68.1% to 84.1%], n = 68) and chlamydia (21.9% [95% CI: 15.4% to 30.3%], n = 48); and for genital ulcer were herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) (48.3% [95% CI: 32.9% to 64.1%], n = 47) and syphilis (9.3% [95% CI: 6.4% to 13.4%], n = 117). Temporal variation was substantial, particularly for genital ulcer where HSV-2 replaced chancroid as the primary cause. Aetiologic distributions for each symptom were largely the same across regions and population strata, despite HIV status and age being significantly associated with several infection diagnoses. Limitations of the review include the absence of studies in 16 of 48 SSA countries, substantial heterogeneity in study observations, and impeded assessment of this variability due to incomplete or inconsistent reporting across studies. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, syndrome aetiologies in SSA aligned with World Health Organization guidelines without strong evidence of geographic or demographic variation, supporting broad guideline applicability. Temporal changes underscore the importance of regular aetiologic re-assessment for effective syndromic management. PROSPERO NUMBER: CRD42022348045.

Burden is in the eye of the beholder: Sensitivity of yellow fever disease burden estimates to modeling assumptions.

Estimates of disease burden are important for setting public health priorities. These estimates involve numerous modeling assumptions, whose uncertainties are not always well described. We developed a framework for estimating the burden of yellow fever in Africa and evaluated its sensitivity to modeling assumptions that are often overlooked. We found that alternative interpretations of serological data resulted in a nearly 20-fold difference in burden estimates (range of central estimates, 8.4 × 104 to 1.5 × 106 deaths in 2021­2030). Uncertainty about the vaccination status of serological study participants was the primary driver of this uncertainty. Even so, statistical uncertainty was even greater than uncertainty due to modeling assumptions, accounting for a total of 87% of variance in burden estimates. Combined with estimates that most infections go unreported (range of 95% credible intervals, 99.65 to 99.99%), our results suggest that yellow fever's burden will remain highly uncertain without major improvements in surveillance.