Quantitative models of the dose-response and time course of inhalational anthrax in humans.

Anthrax poses a community health risk due to accidental or intentional aerosol release. Reliable quantitative dose-response analyses are required to estimate the magnitude and timeline of potential consequences and the effect of public health intervention strategies under specific scenarios. Analyses of available data from exposures and infections of humans and non-human primates are often contradictory. We review existing quantitative inhalational anthrax dose-response models in light of criteria we propose for a model to be useful and defensible. To satisfy these criteria, we extend an existing mechanistic competing-risks model to create a novel Exposure-Infection-Symptomatic illness-Death (EISD) model and use experimental non-human primate data and human epidemiological data to optimize parameter values. The best fit to these data leads to estimates of a dose leading to infection in 50% of susceptible humans (ID50) of 11,000 spores (95% confidence interval 7,200-17,000), ID10 of 1,700 (1,100-2,600), and ID1 of 160 (100-250). These estimates suggest that use of a threshold to human infection of 600 spores (as suggested in the literature) underestimates the infectivity of low doses, while an existing estimate of a 1% infection rate for a single spore overestimates low dose infectivity. We estimate the median time from exposure to onset of symptoms (incubation period) among untreated cases to be 9.9 days (7.7-13.1) for exposure to ID50, 11.8 days (9.5-15.0) for ID10, and 12.1 days (9.9-15.3) for ID1. Our model is the first to provide incubation period estimates that are independently consistent with data from the largest known human outbreak. This model refines previous estimates of the distribution of early onset cases after a release and provides support for the recommended 60-day course of prophylactic antibiotic treatment for individuals exposed to low doses.

The crab hole mosquito blues.

Venezuelan equine encephalomyelitis (VEE) epizoodemics were reported at 6-10-year intervals in northern South America beginning in the 1920s. In 1937, epizootic VEE virus was isolated from infected horse brain and shown as distinct from the North American equine encephalomyelitis viruses. Subsequently, epizootic and sylvatic strains were isolated in distinct ecosystems; isolates were characterized serologically as epizootic subtype I, variants A/B and C; or sylvatic (enzootic) subtype I, variants D, E, and F, and subtypes II, III, and IV. In 1969, variant I-A/B virus was transported from a major outbreak in northern South America to the borders of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. This musical poem describes the history and ecology of VEE viruses and the epidemiology of an unprecedented 1969 movement of VEE viruses from South America to equids and humans in Central America from Costa Rica to Guatemala and Belize and in Mexico and the United States that continued until 1972.

Prevalence of antibodies to serotypes of Bluetongue virus and Anaplasma marginale in Montana feeder cattle: 2002-2003.

In a serologic survey of Montana-source weaned calves and yearling cattle, the apparent prevalence of antibodies to Bluetongue virus was 0.68% and 1.26% in 2002 and 2003, respectively, and to Anaplasma marginale at a positive cutoff at 30% inhibition it was 1.82% and 1.35% in 2002 and 2003, and at a positive cutoff at 42% inhibition it was 0.76% and 0.55% in 2002 and 2003, respectively, suggesting that the risk of importing infected animals was very low.

Risk factors associated with herd-level exposure of cattle in Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota to bluetongue virus.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate herd-level risk factors for seropositive status of cattle to 1 or more bluetongue viruses. ANIMALS: 110 herds of cattle in Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota. PROCEDURE: Blood samples were collected before and after the vector season. Samples were tested for antibodies against bluetongue virus by use of a commercially available competitive ELISA. Factors evaluated included descriptors of geographic location and management practices. Trapping of insect vectors was conducted to evaluate vector status on a subset of 57 operations. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed to evaluate associations. RESULTS: For the full data set, altitude and latitude were associated with risk of having seropositive cattle (an increase in altitude was associated with an increase in risk, and a more northerly location was associated with a decrease in risk of a premise having seropositive cattle). Import of cattle from selected states was associated with an increase in risk of having seropositive cattle. From the subset of herds with data on vector trapping, altitude and latitude were associated with risk of having seropositive cattle, similar to that for the full model. However, commingling with cattle from other herds was associated with a decrease in risk of seropositivity. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Findings reported here may be useful in generating additional hypotheses regarding the ecologic characteristics of bluetongue viruses and other vector-borne diseases of livestock. Sentinel surveillance programs are useful for documenting regionalization zones for diseases, which can be beneficial when securing international markets for animals and animal products.

Animal health organizations: roles to mitigate the impact of ecologic change on animal health in the tropics.

Production of livestock across North and South America is extensive. The opportunities for production, commerce, and thriving economies related to animal agriculture are balanced against the devastating threats of disease. Commitment by livestock and poultry producers in exporting countries to production methods, herd health management, and biosecurity in their operations must be coupled with an animal health and marketing infrastructure that allows the industries to thrive and offers assurances to trading partners that their livestock industries will not be jeopardized. National and international animal health organizations play a key role in providing this infrastructure to the industries that they serve. The incentive for the successful World agricultural production economies to provide direction and support for improving animal health and conveying principles for competitive and safe production to lesser developed nations is the assurance that the expanding economies of these nations offer an eager and hungry market for the products of the other industries of an export-dependent economy. The World Trade Organization (WTO) was established after the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). The WTO provides the permanent international multilateral institutional framework for implementing dispute resolution agreements and the agreement on the application of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures. The SPS agreements allow for the protection of animal and plant health.

Prevalence of antibodies to bluetongue virus and Anaplasma marginale in Montana yearling cattle entering Alberta feedlots: Fall 2001.

A serologic survey was conducted in yearling cattle imported into Alberta feedlots from Montana during October 2001 to estimate the prevalence of antibodies to bluetongue virus (BTV) and Anaplasma marginale in Montana yearling cattle. The apparent prevalence of antibodies to BTV when the competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA) was used was 0.37% (21/5608). Test positive cELISA samples were also all positive when tested by virus neutralization (VN) and they reacted to 1 or more BTV serotypes, including 2, 10, 11, 13, and 17. The apparent prevalence of antibodies to A. marginale when a recombinant cELISA (rcELISA) was used with a positive cutoff at 30% inhibition was 1.93% (108/5608). When the rcELISA positive cutoff was at 42% inhibition, the apparent prevalence was 0.73% (41/5608). After the reported sensitivity and specificity of the test had been accounted for, the A. marginale antibody results were consistent with a population that was either free of exposure or had a very low prevalence for A. marginale.

Aspectos epidemiológicos y entomólogicos de la enfermedad de lengua azul en ganado bovino / Epidemiologic and entomologic aspects of bluetongue in cattle in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Oaxaca, Mexico

Se realizó un estudio prospectivo de la enfermedad de lengua azul en 2 hatos de ganado bovino en la región del Istmo de Tehuantepec. El estudio incluyó la detección menstrual de anticuerpos grupo-específicos contra el virus de lengua azul (VLA) y la captura de moscas culicoides. En enero de 1988, el total de ganado bovino en los 2 hatos (600) fue clasificado seropositivo al VLA, utilizando un método ELISA. Con base en este resultado, 40 bovinos adultos y 35 becerros nacidos entre octubre de 1987 y enero de 1988 fueron evaluados mensualmente (enero a diciembre de 1988) para detectar la producción de anticuerpos grupo-específicos VLA. Se detectó un patrón positivo de seroconversión contra el VLA en becerros, durante la temporada de lluvia en los meses del verano (junio-septiembre). Sin embargo, en algunos becerros se determinó serológicamente actividad de VLA en la temporada seca, durante marzo y abril. Debido a la ausencia de anticuerpos maternos, la mayoría de los becerros fueron susceptibles de infección con el VLA a los 6 meses de edad. La evidencia serológica de la actividad del VLA en becerros se relacionó con la abundancia de moscas Culicoides insignis capturadas durante el estudio