Models for predicting hepatitis B e antigen seroconversion in response to interferon-α in chronic hepatitis B patients.

AIM: To develop models to predict hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion in response to interferon (IFN)-α treatment in chronic hepatitis B patients. METHODS: We enrolled 147 treatment-naïve HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B patients in China and analyzed variables after initiating IFN-α1b treatment. Patients were tested for serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT), hepatitis B virus-DNA, hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), antibody to hepatitis B surface antigen, HBeAg, antibody to hepatitis B e antigen (anti-HBe), and antibody to hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc) at baseline and 12 wk, 24 wk, and 52 wk after initiating treatment. We performed univariate analysis to identify response predictors among the variables. Multivariate models to predict treatment response were constructed at baseline, 12 wk, and 24 wk. RESULTS: At baseline, the 3 factors correlating most with HBeAg seroconversion were serum ALT level > 4 × the upper limit of normal (ULN), HBeAg ≤ 500 S/CO, and anti-HBc > 11.4 S/CO. At 12 wk, the 3 factors most associated with HBeAg seroconversion were HBeAg level ≤ 250 S/CO, decline in HBeAg > 1 log10 S/CO, and anti-HBc > 11.8 S/CO. At 24 wk, the 3 factors most associated with HBeAg seroconversion were HBeAg level ≤ 5 S/CO, anti-HBc > 11.4 S/CO, and decline in HBeAg > 2 log10 S/CO. Each variable was assigned a score of 1, a score of 0 was given if patients did not have any of the 3 variables. The 3 factors most strongly correlating with HBeAg seroconversion at each time point were used to build models to predict the outcome after IFN-α treatment. When the score was 3, the response rates at the 3 time points were 57.7%, 83.3%, and 84.0%, respectively. When the score was 0, the response rates were 2.9%, 0.0%, and 2.1%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Models with good negative and positive predictive values were developed to calculate the probability of response to IFN-α therapy.

Comparison of the antiviral effects of different nucleos(t)ide analogues in chinese patients with chronic hepatitis B: a head-to-head study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: To assess the antiviral efficacy of lamivudine (LAM), entecavir (ETV), telbivudine (LDT), and lamivudine and adefovir dipivoxil (CLA) combination in previously untreated hepatitis B patients at different time points during a 52-week treatment period. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 164 patients were included in this prospective, open-label, head-to-head study. Serum levels of alanine transaminase (ALT), hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA, and hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) were measured at baseline, and at 12, 24, and 52 weeks of treatment. RESULTS: Median reductions in serum HBV DNA levels at 52 weeks (log 10 copies/mL) were as follows: LAM, 3.98; ETV, 3.89; LDT, 4.11; and CLA, 3.36. The corresponding HBV DNA undetectability rates were 83%, 96%, 91%, and 89%, respectively. These two measures showed no significant intergroup differences. Clinical efficacy appeared related to HBV DNA level reduction after 24 weeks of therapy. Patients were divided into three groups based on HBV DNA levels at week 24: Undetectable (<10(3) copies/mL), detectable but <10(4) copies/mL, and >10(4) copies/mL. Patients with levels below quantitation limit (QL) were analyzed at 52 weeks for HBV DNA undetectability rate (94%), ALT normalization rate (83%), and viral breakthrough rate (0%). The corresponding values in the QL-10(4) copies/mL group were 50%, 75%, and 13%, whereas those in the above 10(4) copies/mL group were 53%, 65%, and 18%. There were significant differences at week 52 for HBV DNA levels and viral breakthrough rate between the three groups. CONCLUSIONS: Different nucleos(t)ide (NUC) analogues tested exhibited no significant differences in effectiveness for Chinese NUC-naive HBV patients during 1-year treatment period.