Trend analysis and age-period-cohort effects on morbidity and mortality of liver cancer from 2010 to 2020 in Guangzhou, China.

Introduction: Liver cancer is one of the most common malignant gastrointestinal tumors worldwide. This study intends to provide insight into the epidemiological characteristics and development trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality from 2010 to 2020 in Guangzhou, China. Methods: Data were collected from the Cancer Registry and Reporting Office of Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Cross-sectional study, Joinpoint regression (JPR) model, and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model were conducted to analyze the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trend of liver cancer among the entire study period. Results: The age-standardized incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Guangzhou showed an overall decreasing trend. The disparity in risk of morbidity and mortality between the two sexes for liver cancer is increasing. The cohort effect was the most significant among those born in 1965~1969, and the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality in the total population increased and then decreased with the birth cohort. Compared with the birth cohort born in 1950~1954 (the reference cohort), the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality in the males born in 1995~1999 decreased by 32% and 41%, respectively, while the risk in the females decreased by 31% and 32%, respectively. Conclusions: The early detection, prevention, clinical diagnosis, and treatment of liver cancer in Guangzhou have made remarkable achievements in recent years. However, the risk of liver cancer in the elderly and the middle-aged males is still at a high level. Therefore, the publicity of knowledge related to the prevention and treatment of liver cancer among the relevant population groups should be actively carried out to enhance the rate of early diagnosis and treatment of liver cancer and to advocate a healthier lifestyle.

Association between polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and infertility in U.S. women: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2013-2016.

Although there is a body of research indicating the potential impact of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) exposure on male infertility, the understanding of how PAH might affect female infertility is still limited. This study aimed to evaluate associations of PAHs, both individually and as a mixture, with female infertility using multiple logistic regression, Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR), and quantile g-computation (QGC) models based on data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2013-2016. The study included 729 female participants. Multiple logistic regression results indicated that there was a significant association between the third tertile of 2-hydroxy fluorene (2-OHFLU) and female infertility, and the OR was 2.84 (95% CI: 1.24-6.53, P value = 0.015) compared with the first tertile after adjusting for the potential covariates. The BKMR model revealed a positive overall trend between mixed PAH exposure and female infertility, particularly when the mixture was at or above the 55th percentile, where 2-hydroxynaphthalene (2-OHNAP) and 1-hydroxypyrene (1-OHPYR) were the primary influences of the mixture. The univariate exposure-response function indicated positive associations between individual PAH exposure, specifically 2-OHNAP, 2-OHFLU, and 1-OHPYR, and female infertility. The QGC model also indicated a positive trend between exposure to a mixture of PAHs and female infertility, although it did not reach statistical significance (OR = 1.33, 95%CI: 0.86-2.07), with 1-OHPYR having the greatest positive effect on the outcome. This study suggested that exposure to PAHs may be associated with female infertility and further research is needed to consolidate and confirm these findings.

Exploring temporal trends and influencing factors for thyroid cancer in Guangzhou, China: 2004-2018.

PURPOSE: Describe and analyze the trends of thyroid cancer incidence and mortality in Guangzhou, explore the potential influencing factors, and provide evidence for the government to formulate prevention and treatment measures. METHODS: Incident and death cases of thyroid cancer were retrieved from the Guangzhou cancer registry. The joinpoint regression models were used to estimate the incidence and mortality trends. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the age, period, and cohort effects on the time trends. Grey correlation analysis was performed to explore possible connections between thyroid cancer and social factors. RESULTS: A total of 15,955 new cases of thyroid cancer were registered in Guangzhou during 2004-2018, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of thyroid cancer increased from 4.29/105 in 2004 to 22.36/105 in 2018, with the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 13.40%. The overall increase can be attributed to the increase in the incidence of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), which was dominated by tumors <2 cm. The ASIR was higher in women (16.12/105) compared to men (5.46/105), and young and middle-aged individuals had higher incidence rates than older people. The number of thyroid cancer deaths registered between 2010 and 2018 was 356, and the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were stable (approximately 0.42/105). Men's ASMR (0.34/105) and women's (0.49/105) were similar, and those 60 and older had greater mortality. The period and cohort relative risks showed an overall increasing trend. Furthermore, there was a strong positive correlation between the ASIRs and social determinants. CONCLUSIONS: During the study period, the incidence rate of thyroid cancer among young and middle-aged people in Guangzhou showed a rapidly increasing trend, and the mortality was relatively stable. In the future, more effective preventive measures should be taken for this age group to reduce the burden of disease and avoid overdiagnosis.

Lifestyle, clinical and histological indices-based prediction models for survival in cancer patients: a city-wide prospective cohort study in China.

PURPOSE: We developed a nomogram to predict 3-year, 5-year and 7-year cancer survival rates of cancer patients. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 20,491 surviving patients first diagnosed with cancer in Guangzhou from 2010 to 2019. They were divided into a training and a validation group. Lifestyle, clinical and histological parameters (LCH) were included in multivariable Cox regression. Akaike information criterion was used to select prediction factors for the nomogram. The discrimination and calibration of models were assessed by concordance index (C-index), area under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (time-dependent AUC), and calibration plots. We used net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) to compare the clinical utility of LCH prediction model with the prediction model based on lifestyle factors (LF). RESULTS: 13 prediction factors including age, sex, BMI, smoking status, physical activity, sleep duration, regular diet, tumor grading, TNM stage, multiple primary cancer and anatomical site were included in the LCH model. The LCH model showed satisfactory discrimination and calibration (C-index = 0.81 (95% CI 0.80-0.82) for training group and 0.80 (0.79-0.81) for validation group, both time-dependent AUC > 0.70). The LF model including smoking status, physical activity, sleep duration, regular diet, and BMI showed less satisfactory discrimination (C-index = 0.60 (95% CI 0.59-0.61) for training and 0.60 (0.58-0.62) for validation group). The LCH model had better accuracy and discriminative ability than the LF model, as indicated by positive NRI and IDI values. CONCLUSIONS: The LCH model shows good accuracy, clinical utility and precise prognosis prediction, and may serve as a tool to predict cancer survival of cancer patients.

Temporal Trends in the Incidence and Mortality of Major Reproductive-Related Cancers in Women in Guangzhou From 2010 to 2020: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Study.

Objective: To understand the temporal trends of cancer incidence and mortality in women in Guangzhou during the past 11 years and provide clues for future research. Methods: Data were obtained from the Guangzhou Cancer and Death Registry. Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were obtained by joinpoint regression. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was generated to quantify the effects of age, period, and cohort. Results: The ASIRs for cervical (AAPC = -4.3%) and ovarian (AAPC = -3.2%) cancers showed a downward trend during 2010-2020, and that for uterine cancer showed an upward trend. The ASMRs of breast (APC = 5.0%) and cervical (APC = 8.8%) cancers increased. The APC model highlights different age, period, and birth cohort effects depending on the cancer site. Conclusion: The ASIRs for cervical and ovarian cancers among women in Guangzhou showed a decreasing trend during the period. The APC model showed mortality for 4 cancers increased with age. Incidence and mortality decreased with increasing birth cohort. Annual reproductive cancer screening is recommended for women of appropriate age to reduce the disease burden.

Disparities in the increases of cervical cancer incidence rates: observations from a city-wide population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Globally cervical cancer incidence rate has been declining continuously. However, an unfavorable trend has been observed in China during the past decades, and the underlying reasons remain unclear. We hereby explore the recent trends of cervical cancer incidence, as well as the underlying determinants using data from Guangzhou, one of biggest cities in China. METHODS: City-wide cancer registration data were obtained from the Guangzhou Center for Disease Prevention and Control from 2004 to 2018. We used the Joinpoint regression models to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of age-standardized and age-specific incidence rates by regions and by histological subtype. Age-period-cohort models were applied to analyze the period and birth cohort effects on the time trends. RESULTS: The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of cervical cancer incidence increased at an annual rate of 2.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0%-3.2%] during 2004-2018. The largest increase in ASRs was found for rural regions, with AAPC of 6.6% [95% CI: 3.7%-9.5%], followed by the suburbs (2.2% [95% CI: 1.0%-3.4%]), while there was no statistically significant increase in urban regions. The ASRs of adenocarcinoma increased faster than those of the squamous cell carcinoma (AAPC = 6.53% [95% CI: 5.0%-8.1%] versus 1.79% [95% CI: 0.8%-2.8%]). A downward trend in urban regions was found in the 20-49 age group, whereas an upward trend was found in the 50 + age group, especially in rural regions. An inverted V-shape was found for cohort effects, with the peak varied by regions, i.e., peaked in the 1966 and 1971 birth cohort in the urban and suburb regions, respectively. Period effects kept increasing during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: We systematically examine the disparities in the increases of cervical cancer incidence rates using city-wide data from Guangzhou. Extensive efforts are warranted to address the large urban-rural disparities in cervical cancer prevention. The combined strategies of vaccination, screening, and health education should be reinforced and locally customized.

A risk-prediction score for colorectal lesions on 12,628 participants at high risk of colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The uptake of colonoscopy is low in individuals at risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We constructed a risk-prediction score (RPS) in a large community-based sample at high risk of CRC to enable more accurate risk stratification and to motivate and increase the uptake rate of colonoscopy. METHODS: A total of 12,628 participants classified as high-risk according to positivity of immunochemical fecal occult blood tests or High-Risk Factor Questionnaire underwent colonoscopy. Logistic regression was used to derive a RPS and analysed the associations of the RPS with colorectal lesions, giving odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Of the participants, men (OR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.58-1.90), older age (≥65 years; 1.41, 1.31-1.53), higher body mass index (≥28 kg/m2; 1.22, 1.07-1.39), ever smoking (1.47, 1.31-1.65), and weekly alcohol use (1.28, 1.09-1.52) were associated with a higher risk of colorectal lesions. We assigned 1 point to each of the above five risk factors and derived a RPS ranging from 0 to 5, with a higher score indicating a higher risk. Compared with a RPS of 0, a RPS of 1, 2, 3, and 4-5 showed a higher risk of colorectal lesions, with the OR (95% CI) being 1.50 (1.37-1.63), 2.34 (2.12-2.59), 3.58 (3.13-4.10), and 3.91 (3.00-5.10), respectively. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of RPS in predicting colorectal lesions was 0.62. CONCLUSIONS: Participants with an increase in the RPS of ≥1 point had a significantly higher risk of colorectal lesions, suggesting the urgency for measuring colonoscopy in this very high-risk group. High-risk strategies incorporating RPS may be employed to achieve a higher colonoscopy-uptake rate.

Association of healthy lifestyle score with all-cause mortality and life expectancy: a city-wide prospective cohort study of cancer survivors.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to a healthy lifestyle could reduce the cancer mortality in the western population. We conducted a city-wide prospective study in China investigating the association of a healthy lifestyle score with all-cause mortality and the life expectancy in cancer survivors. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 46,120 surviving patients who were firstly diagnosed with cancer in Guangzhou. Five low-risk lifestyle factors including never smoking, never alcohol use, regular physical activity (≥ 2 h/week), sufficient sleep (≥ 6 h/day), and normal or high BMI (≥ 18.5 kg/m2) were assessed and a lifestyle score (0-5, a higher score indicates healthier lifestyle) was generated. Hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause mortality and the life expectancy by levels of the lifestyle scores were estimated. RESULTS: Of 46,120 cancer survivors registered from 2010 to 2017, during an average follow-up of 4.3 years (200,285 person-years), 15,209 deaths were recorded. Adjusted HRs for mortality in cancer survivors with lifestyle score of 0-2, versus 5, were 2.59 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.03-3.30) in women, 1.91 (95%CI 1.77-2.05) in men, 2.28 (95%CI 2.03-2.55) in those aged <65 years, and 1.90 (95%CI 1.75, 2.05) in those aged ≥ 65 years. Life expectancy at age 55 for those with a score of 0-2 and 5 was 53.4 and 57.1 months, respectively. We also found that cancer survivors with healthy lifestyle scores of 5 showed 59.9 months of life expectancy on average, which was longer than those with a score of 0-2. CONCLUSION: Adopting a healthy lifestyle was associated with a substantially lower risk of all-cause mortality and longer life expectancy in cancer survivors. Our findings should be useful for health education and health promotion in primary care and clinical practice.