Application of estimand framework to the design and analysis of multi-regional clinical trials.

With the increasing globalization of drug development and the publication of the International Council for Harmonisation (ICH) E17 guideline (ICH International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use 2017), multi-regional clinical trials (MRCTs) have become a preferred option to accelerate the availability of new medical products by design, execution and simultaneous submission under one protocol. MRCTs, with the participation of all major regions including countries from both developed and emerging markets, surely make new drug development more efficient. Even though the proposed estimand framework (ICH E9 (R1) (2019), came later in 2019 and was not mentioned in ICH E17, the application of the estimand framework has the potential to enhance the design, execution, and analysis in MRCTs. Defining an estimand within the regional context in MRCTs is an important issue that requires careful consideration. Given that consistency evaluation of treatment effects across regions is critical in MRCTs, the utilization of the estimand framework for regional consistency evaluation is also worth discussion. This paper aims to address these two questions. The five attributes of the estimand definition are discussed within a multi-regional context. It is imperative to thoroughly consider regional intrinsic/extrinsic factors when planning the estimand and estimation of MRCTs. A holistic approach is summarized to conduct consistency evaluation. When a regional inconsistency is observed, the possible reasons need to be further explored under five attributes of the estimand framework. Two real case studies are discussed to illustrate the application of the estimand framework in the consistency evaluation.

Application of estimand framework in ICH E9 (R1) to vaccine trials.

Over the past decades, the primary interest in vaccine efficacy or immunogenicity evaluation mostly focuses on the biological effect of immunization in complying with the vaccination schedule in a targeted population. The safety questions, which are essential for vaccines as they are generally given to large healthy populations, need to be clearly defined to reflect the risk assessment of interest. ICH E9 (R1) provides a structured framework to clarify the clinical questions and formulate the treatment effect as an estimand. This paper applies the estimand framework to vaccine clinical trials on common clinical questions regarding efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety.

Application of estimand framework in ICH E9 (R1) to safety evaluation.

Defining the right question of interest is important to a clinical study. ICH E9 (R1) introduces the framework of an estimand and its five attributes, which provide a basis for connecting different components of a study with its clinical questions. Most of the applications of the estimand framework focus on efficacy instead of safety assessment. In this paper, we expand the estimand framework into the safety evaluation and compare/contrast the similarity and differences between safety and efficacy estimand. Furthermore, we present and discuss applications of a safety estimand to oncology trials and pooled data analyses. At last, we also discuss the potential usage of safety estimand to handle the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on safety assessment.

Estimation of causal effect in integrating randomized clinical trial and observational data - An example application to cardiovascular outcome trial.

Safety evaluation of drug development is a comprehensive process across the product lifecycle. While a randomized clinical trial (RCT) can provide high-quality data to assess the efficacy and safety of a new intervention, the pre-marketing trials are limited in statistical power to detect causal elevation of rare but potentially serious adverse events. On the other hand, real-world data (RWD) sources play a critical role in further understanding the safety profile of the new intervention. Bringing together the breadth and strength of RWD and RCT data, we can maximize the utility of RWD and answer broader questions. In this manuscript, we propose a three-step statistical framework to corroborate findings from both RCT and RWD for evaluating important safety concerns identified in the pre-marketing setting. By the proposed approach, we first match the observational study to RCT, then the causal estimation is validated via the matched observational study with the target RCT by targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) method, and lastly the evidence from RCT and RWD can be combined in an integrative analysis. A potential application to cardiovascular outcome trials for type 2 diabetes mellitus is illustrated. Finally, simulation results suggest that the heterogeneity of patient population from RCT and RWD can lead to varying degrees of treatment effect estimation and the proposed approach may be able to mitigate such difference in the integrative analysis.

Bayesian hierarchical model for safety signal detection in multiple clinical trials.

Clinical safety signal detection is of great importance in establishing the safety profile of new drugs and biologics during drug development. Bayesian hierarchical meta-analysis has proven to be a very effective method of identifying potential safety signals by considering the hierarchical structure of clinical safety data from multiple randomized clinical trials conducted under an Investigational New Drug (IND) application or Biological License Application (BLA). This type of model can integrate information across studies, for instance by grouping related adverse events using the MedDRA system-organ-class (SOC) and preferred terms (PT). It therefore improves the precision of parameter estimates compared to models that do not consider the hierarchical structure of the safety data. We propose to extend an existing four-stage Bayesian hierarchical model and consider the exposure adjusted incidence rate, assuming the number of adverse events (AEs) follows a Poisson distribution. The proposed model is applied to a real-world example, using data from three randomized clinical trials of a neuroscience drug and examine in three simulation studies motivated by real-world examples. Comparison is made between the proposed method and other existing methods. The simulation results indicate that our proposed model outperforms other two candidate models in terms of power and false detection rate.

Global Regulatory Landscape for Aggregate Safety Assessments: Recent Developments and Future Directions.

Notwithstanding successful harmonization efforts, the global regulatory framework governing product safety is complex and continually evolving, as evidenced by additional regional guidance and regulations. In this regulatory review, we provide an overview from both global and regional perspectives. A historical perspective, with a focus on recent developments, enables identification of important long-term trends, such as a shift from single-case medical review of serious adverse events to an interdisciplinary evaluation of aggregate data for the purpose of judging product causality and informing benefit-risk assessments. We will show how these trends lead to opportunities for closer interdisciplinary collaboration, for bridging the gap between preand postmarketing surveillance, and for a more proactive determination of patient populations with a positive benefit-risk profile for product use. We will conclude by pointing to ongoing and future work that seeks to provide specific solutions for ongoing aggregate safety evaluation.

Statistical Practices of Safety Monitoring: An Industry Survey.

The Biopharmaceutical Section of the American Statistical Association (ASA) formed a Safety Monitoring Working Group to strengthen collaborations between biostatisticians and safety scientists. The task began by surveying current needs and practices regarding available statistical safety tools and methods, regulatory guidance, and processes needed to support their implementation. The goal is for biostatisticians to become fully engaged safety team members by having the necessary safety skill set including appropriate methodology, regulatory guidance and access to appropriate tools. In this publication, we will discuss our survey results that reveal current practices at 22 pharmaceutical companies and demonstrate how the survey instrument can be used to map an action plan for meeting the demand for improved quantitative safety monitoring.

C-TOC (Cognitive Testing on Computer): investigating the usability and validity of a novel self-administered cognitive assessment tool in aging and early dementia.

INTRODUCTION: Cognitive Testing on Computer (C-TOC) is a novel computer-based test battery developed to improve both usability and validity in the computerized assessment of cognitive function in older adults. METHODS: C-TOC's usability was evaluated concurrently with its iterative development to version 4 in subjects with and without cognitive impairment, and health professional advisors representing different ethnocultural groups. C-TOC version 4 was then validated against neuropsychological tests (NPTs), and by comparing performance scores of subjects with normal cognition, Cognitive Impairment Not Dementia (CIND) and Alzheimer disease. C-TOC's language tests were validated in subjects with aphasic disorders. RESULTS: The most important usability issue that emerged from consultations with 27 older adults and with 8 cultural advisors was the test-takers' understanding of the task, particularly executive function tasks. User interface features did not pose significant problems. C-TOC version 4 tests correlated with comparator NPT (r=0.4 to 0.7). C-TOC test scores were normal (n=16)>CIND (n=16)>Alzheimer disease (n=6). All normal/CIND NPT performance differences were detected on C-TOC. Low computer knowledge adversely affected test performance, particularly in CIND. C-TOC detected impairments in aphasic disorders (n=11). DISCUSSION: In general, C-TOC had good validity in detecting cognitive impairment. Ensuring test-takers' understanding of the tasks, and considering their computer knowledge appear important steps towards C-TOC's implementation.

A predictive Bayesian approach to the design and analysis of bridging studies.

Pharmaceutical product development culminates in confirmatory trials whose evidence for the product's efficacy and safety supports regulatory approval for marketing. Regulatory agencies in countries whose patients were not included in the confirmatory trials often require confirmation of efficacy and safety in their patient populations, which may be accomplished by carrying out bridging studies to establish consistency for local patients of the effects demonstrated by the original trials. This article describes and illustrates an approach for designing and analyzing bridging studies that fully incorporates the information provided by the original trials. The approach determines probability contours or regions of joint predictive intervals for treatment effect and response variability, or endpoints of treatment effect confidence intervals, that are functions of the findings from the original trials, the sample sizes for the bridging studies, and possible deviations from complete consistency with the original trials. The bridging studies are judged consistent with the original trials if their findings fall within the probability contours or regions. Regulatory considerations determine the region definitions and appropriate probability levels. Producer and consumer risks provide a way to assess alternative region and probability choices. [Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the Publisher's online edition of the Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics for the following free supplemental resource: Appendix 2: R code for Calculations.].

Safety and tolerability of zoster vaccine in adults ≥60 years old.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the general safety of zoster vaccine (ZV) in adults ≥60 years old. PATIENTS/METHODS: Subjects were enrolled in a 1:1 ratio to receive 1 dose of ZV or placebo. Subjects were followed for serious adverse experiences (SAEs) for 42 days (primary follow-up period) and 182 days (secondary follow-up period) postvaccination. Relative-risks (ZV/placebo) for SAEs during both safety periods were calculated. STUDY PERIOD: 17-Sep­2007 to 09-Jan-2009. RESULTS: Overall, 5,983 subjects received ZV and 5,997 received placebo. Within the primary 42-day follow-up period, 84 ZV subjects and 67 placebo subjects reported SAEs. The estimated risk of SAEs within 42 days was 1.41% for ZV versus 1.12% for placebo, with a relative-risk of 1.26 (95% CI 0.91,1.73); indicating no statistically significant difference between groups, meeting the pre-specified success criterion. During the 182-day follow-up period, 340 ZV subjects and 300 placebo subjects reported SAEs. The estimated risk of SAEs within 182 days was 5.68% for ZV versus 5.01% for placebo, with a relative-risk of 1.13 (95% CI 0.98,1.32), indicating no statistically significant difference between groups. Two subjects in the ZV group reported SAEs deemed by the investigator to be vaccine-related (uveitis and sciatica; onset Day 5 and 4, respectively). One subject in the placebo group reported a SAE deemed by the investigator to be vaccine-related (lumbar radiculopathy; onset Day 51). There were 24 fatal SAEs in the ZV group and 17 in the placebo group (relative risk = 1.41; CI: 0.77, 2.60); 6 and 5, respectively, with SAE onset during the primary 42-day follow-up period. No deaths were deemed vaccine-related. CONCLUSIONS: ZV and placebo groups had similar safety profiles in terms of SAEs during the primary (Day 1 to 42) and secondary (Day 1 to 182) follow-up periods.

Handling missing data in vaccine clinical trials for immunogenicity and safety evaluation.

In clinical trials, study subjects are usually followed for a period of time after treatment, and the missing data issue is almost inevitable due to various reasons, including early dropout or lost-to-follow-up. It is important to take the missing data into consideration at the study design stage to minimize its occurrence throughout the study and to prospectively account for it in the analyses. There are many methods available in the literature that are designed to handle the missing data issue under various settings. Vaccines are biological products that are primarily designed to prevent infectious diseases, and are different from pharmaceutical products, which traditionally have been chemical products designed to treat or cure diseases. While a lot of similarities exist between clinical trials for vaccines and those for pharmaceutical products, there are some unique issues in vaccine trials, including how to handle the missing data, which calls for special considerations. In this report we present a variety of statistical approaches for analyses of vaccine immunogenicity and safety trials in the presence of missing data. The methods are illustrated with numerical simulations and vaccine trial examples.

Effect of a zoster vaccine on herpes zoster-related interference with functional status and health-related quality-of-life measures in older adults.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy of a zoster vaccine on herpes zoster (HR)-related interference with activities of daily living (ADLs) and health-related quality of life (HRQL). DESIGN: Randomized double-blind placebo controlled trial. SETTING: Twenty-two U.S. sites. PARTICIPANTS: Thirty eight thousand five hundred forty-six women and men aged 60 and olcer. MEASUREMENTS: HZ burden of interference with ADLs and HRQL using ratings from the Zoster Brief Pain Inventory (ZBPI) and Medical Outcomes Study 12-item Short Form Survey (SF-12) mental component summary (MCS) and physical component summary (PCS) scores. Vaccine efficacy was calculated for the modified-intention-to-treat trial population and solely in participants who developed HZ. RESULTS: For the modified-intention-to-treat population, the overall zoster vaccine efficacy was 66% (95% confidence interval (CI)=55-74%) for ZBPI ADL burden of interference score and 55% (95% CI=48-61%) for both the SF-12 MCS and PCS scores. Of participants who developed HZ, zoster vaccine reduced the ZBPI ADL burden of interference score by 31% (95% CI=12-51%) and did not significantly reduce the effect on HRQL. CONCLUSIONS: Zoster vaccine reduced the burden of HZ-related interference with ADLs in the population of vaccinees and in vaccinees who developed HZ. Zoster vaccine reduced the effect of HZ on HRQL in the population of vaccinees but not in vaccinees who developed HZ.

Comparison of the levels of immunogenicity and safety of Zostavax in adults 50 to 59 years old and in adults 60 years old or older.

Zostavax has been shown to be efficacious in the prevention of herpes zoster and generally well tolerated in clinical trials among subjects 60 years old or older. This prespecified combined analysis from two studies compares the levels of immunogenicity and safety of Zostavax in subjects 50 to 59 years old versus those in subjects >or=60 years old. Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) antibody (Ab) titers were measured by glycoprotein enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay at baseline and 4 weeks postvaccination. Noninferiority was evaluated by estimated geometric mean severalfold rise (GMFR) ratio (50 to 59 years old/>or=60 years old) and two-sided 95% confidence interval (CI). Success was defined by a lower bound (LB) of the 95% CI of the GMFR ratio of >0.67. Acceptability of postvaccination VZV Ab was defined by an LB of the 95% CI of the GMFR of >1.4. Safety data were recorded for 28 days postvaccination by standardized vaccination report card. The estimated GMFRs from baseline to 4 weeks postvaccination were 2.6 (95% CI, 2.4, 2.9) in subjects 50 to 59 years old and 2.3 (95% CI, 2.1, 2.4) in subjects >or=60 years old. The estimated GMFR ratio (50 to 59 years old/>or=60 years old) was 1.13 (95% CI, 1.02, 1.25). No serious Zostavax-related adverse experiences were reported. After a dose of Zostavax, the GMFR of the VZV Ab response in subjects 50 to 59 years old was noninferior to that in subjects >or=60 years old. The VZV Ab response was acceptable in both age groups. Zostavax was generally well tolerated in both age groups.

A double-blind, randomized, controlled, multicenter safety and immunogenicity study of a refrigerator-stable formulation of Zostavax.

The vaccine Zostavax has been shown to prevent herpes zoster (HZ) and postherpetic neuralgia and is recommended for individuals > or =60 years of age. This study compared the safety and the immunogenicity of a refrigerator-stable formulation (Zostavax refrigerated) with those of the current formulation (Zostavax frozen) in subjects > or =50 years of age. Subjects with a negative history for HZ were randomized 1:1 to receive one dose of either formulation. Enrollment was stratified 1:2 by age (50 to 59 years and > or =60 years). Safety was evaluated for 28 days postvaccination. Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) antibody responses were measured by a glycoprotein enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (gpELISA). The primary endpoints were the VZV antibody geometric mean titer (GMT; day 28), the VZV antibody geometric mean rise (GMR; days 1 to 28), and the incidence of vaccine-related serious adverse experiences (AEs) over 28 days. The refrigerated (n = 182) and frozen (n = 185) formulations induced similar GMTs (727.4 and 834.4 gpELISA units/ml, respectively); the estimated GMT ratio (refrigerated formulation/frozen formulation) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.71 to 1.07). The GMRs were 2.6- and 2.9-fold, respectively. No vaccine-related serious AEs were reported in either group, and the safety profiles of the formulations were generally similar. The frequencies of injection-site AEs during follow-up were 35.6% and 46.4% in the refrigerated and the frozen formulation groups, respectively, and were generally mild. The frequencies of systemic AEs were similar in the two groups, and those of vaccine-related AEs were approximately 6% in both groups. The refrigerator-stable formulation of Zostavax has an acceptable safety profile and is as immunogenic as the frozen formulation; thus, the vaccine may be used in clinical settings where freezer availability is limited.

Safety and immunogenicity profile of the concomitant administration of ZOSTAVAX and inactivated influenza vaccine in adults aged 50 and older.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of ZOSTAVAX administered concomitantly with inactivated influenza vaccine or sequentially in adults aged 50 and older. DESIGN: Randomized, blinded, placebo-controlled study. SETTING: Thirteen U.S. and seven European study sites. PARTICIPANTS: Three hundred eighty-two concomitantly, 380 sequentially vaccinated subjects. INTERVENTION: The concomitant vaccination group received influenza vaccine and ZOSTAVAX at separate injection sites on Day 1 and placebo at Week 4. The nonconcomitant vaccination group received influenza vaccine and placebo at separate injection sites on Day 1 and ZOSTAVAX at Week 4. MEASUREMENTS: Primary safety endpoints: vaccine-related serious adverse experiences (AEs) within 28 days postvaccination (PV); and diary card-prompted local and systemic AEs. Primary immunogenicity endpoints: geometric mean titer (GMT) and geometric mean fold rise (GMFR) from baseline of varicella-zoster virus (VZV) antibody (Ab) at 4 weeks PV according to glycoprotein enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (gpELISA) and GMT of influenza Ab for the three vaccine strains (2005-2006 influenza season) at 4 weeks PV according to hemagglutination inhibition assay. Secondary immunogenicity endpoint: influenza seroconversion rates (SCRs). RESULTS: No serious AEs related to ZOSTAVAX were observed during the study. VZV Ab GMTs 4 weeks PV for the concomitant and sequential groups were 554 and 597 gpELISA U/mL, respectively. The estimated VZV Ab GMT ratio was 0.9 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.8-1.0), indicating noninferior (P<.001 for the null hypothesis of GMT ratio <0.67) responses. Estimated VZV Ab GMFR from baseline in the concomitant group was 2.1 (95% CI=2.0-2.3), indicating acceptable fold rise. Estimated GMT ratios (concomitant/sequential) for influenza strains A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and B were 0.9 (95% CI=0.8-1.1), 1.1 (95% CI=0.9-1.3), and 0.9 (95% CI=0.8-1.1), respectively, and SCRs were comparable across both groups, with more than 85% achieving titers of 1:40 or greater, meeting regulatory criteria. CONCLUSION: ZOSTAVAX and influenza vaccine given concomitantly are generally well tolerated in adults aged 50 and older. Ab responses were similar whether ZOSTAVAX and influenza vaccine were given concomitantly or sequentially.

Immunogenicity of Oka/Merck varicella vaccine in children vaccinated at 12-14 months of age versus 15-23 months of age.

OBJECTIVE: Recent reports suggest that breakthrough varicella may be more common in children when the Oka/Merck varicella vaccine is given at 12-14 months of age than when it is given at older ages. An analysis of 5 postlicensure clinical trials with this vaccine was conducted to evaluate immune response relative to the age of the vaccine recipient. METHODS: In 5 clinical trials, 3771 children, 12 through 23 months of age with no history of varicella, received an injection of varicella vaccine. Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) antibody was measured 6 weeks postvaccination by glycoprotein enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (gpELISA), an assay that correlates with neutralizing antibody. Endpoints evaluated were the response rate (percent of subjects with VZV antibody > or =5 gpELISA units/mL, a titer shown to correlate with protection) and geometric mean titer (GMT) of VZV antibody. Each endpoint was compared across 3 age groups (12-14, 15-17, and 18-23 months of age). Response rates by initial VZV serostatus were evaluated for children vaccinated at 12-14 months of age to assess whether maternal antibody had an impact on the immune response. RESULTS: The response rates were similar among 12-14, 15-17, and 18-23 month olds (93.8, 90.8, and 93.1%, respectively); GMTs were significantly higher among the 12-14 month olds (15.1, 13.5, and 13.7 gpELISA units/mL, respectively). Among children 12-14 months of age, response rates and GMTs were similar regardless of their prevaccination VZV serostatus. CONCLUSIONS: Oka/Merck varicella vaccine is highly immunogenic when given to children 12-14 months of age. The immunogenicity profile is similar to that of children 15-17 and 18-23 months of age. The presence of low titers of VZV antibody before vaccination did not influence vaccine response in 12-14 month olds. These results support current recommendations for universal varicella vaccination beginning at 12 months of age.

Correlation coefficient inference on censored bioassay data.

In vaccine clinical trials, immunologic responses sometimes can not be accurately measured by bioassays. For example, a serial dilution assay usually reports the range of the response instead of the exact value. In some other assays, the measurement is not available if the response is lower than the assay's detection limit. In both cases, the measurements are censored. We are interested in computing the confidence interval for the correlation coefficient of two assay measurements that are subject to censoring. We propose using the maximum likelihood method to estimate the correlation coefficient, and constructing its confidence interval based on the second-order Taylor's expansion of the Fisher Z transformation. The method can be viewed as an extension of the Fisher Z transformation to the case of censored data. Extensive simulations show that the proposed method provides satisfactory coverage probabilities under finite sample sizes. The proposed method performs well compared with existing methods, but it is computationally much simpler. In addition, the proposed method works with many types of censored data in a similar way. Furthermore, we proposed an Monte Carlo exact test to assess the goodness-of-fit of the model.

Measurement of cell-mediated immunity with a Varicella-Zoster Virus-specific interferon-gamma ELISPOT assay: responses in an elderly population receiving a booster immunization.

An interferon-gamma ELISPOT assay has been developed for assessment of cellular immune responses to Varicella-Zoster Virus (VZV) in large, multi-center clinical vaccine trials. We show that the assay performed best when testing peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) that had been isolated and then frozen on the same day as blood was drawn, and that freezing PBMCs from blood that was stored overnight before processing resulted in dramatically reduced responses. This assay was used to monitor cell-mediated immunity (CMI) in response to a booster immunization with an investigational live, attenuated VZV vaccine in an elderly population that had been vaccinated 8-10 years previously. The booster vaccine elicited a 1.6- to 1.7-fold rise in the VZV-specific cellular immune response as measured by the ELISPOT assay. The increase from pre to post booster vaccination response was more pronounced (approximately 2.2-fold rise) in a subset of subjects who had received two prior immunizations with a live, attenuated vaccine.