Changing patterns of health risk in adolescence: implications for health policy.

Adolescence is a time of physical, cognitive, social, and emotional development. This period is a very sensitive developmental window; environmental exposures, the development of health behaviours (eg, smoking and physical activity), and illness during adolescence can have implications for lifelong health. In the UK and other high-income countries, the experience of adolescence has changed profoundly over the past 20 years. Smoking, drug use, and alcohol consumption have all been in long-term decline. At the same time, obesity and mental ill health have increased and are now common among adolescents, with new risks (ie, vaping, psychoactive substances, and online harms) emerging. In this Viewpoint, we describe these and related trends in England and the UK. Although previous work has explored these changes in isolation, in this Viewpoint we consider them collectively. We explore what might be driving the changes and consider the implications for practice, policy, and research.

Pediatric Hospitalizations and ICU Admissions Due to COVID-19 and Pediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome Temporally Associated With SARS-CoV-2 in England.

Importance: Investigating how the risk of serious illness after SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and adolescents has changed as new variants have emerged is essential to inform public health interventions and clinical guidance. Objective: To examine risk factors associated with hospitalization for COVID-19 or pediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2 (PIMS-TS) among children and adolescents during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic and change in risk factors over time. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-level analysis of hospitalizations after SARS-CoV-2 infection in England among children and adolescents aged 0 to 17 years was conducted from February 1, 2020, to January 31, 2022. National data on hospital activity were linked with data on SARS-CoV-2 testing, SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admissions, and mortality. Children and adolescents hospitalized with COVID-19 or PIMS-TS during this time were included. Maternal, elective, and injury-related hospitalizations were excluded. Exposures: Previous medical comorbidities, sociodemographic factors, and timing of hospitalization when different SARS-CoV-2 variants (ie, wild type, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron) were dominant in England. Main Outcomes: PICU admission and death within 28 days of hospitalization with COVID-19 or PIMS-TS. Results: A total of 10 540 hospitalizations due to COVID-19 and 997 due to PIMS-TS were identified within 1 125 010 emergency hospitalizations for other causes. The number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 and PIMS-TS per new SARS-CoV-2 infections in England declined during the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Among 10 540 hospitalized children and adolescents, 448 (4.3%) required PICU admission due to COVID-19, declining from 162 of 1635 (9.9%) with wild type, 98 of 1616 (6.1%) with Alpha, and 129 of 3789 (3.4%) with Delta to 59 of 3500 (1.7%) with Omicron. Forty-eight children and adolescents died within 28 days of hospitalization due to COVID-19, and no children died of PIMS-TS (PIMS-S data were limited to November 2020 onward). Risk of severe COVID-19 in children and adolescents was associated with medical comorbidities and neurodisability regardless of SARS-CoV-2 variant. Results were similar when children and adolescents with prior SARS-CoV-2 exposure or vaccination were excluded. Conclusions: In this study of data across the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, risk of severe disease from SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and adolescents in England remained low. Children and adolescents with multiple medical problems, particularly neurodisability, were at increased risk and should be central to public health measures as further variants emerge.

Risk factors for PICU admission and death among children and young people hospitalized with COVID-19 and PIMS-TS in England during the first pandemic year.

Identifying which children and young people (CYP) are most vulnerable to serious infection due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is important to guide protective interventions. To address this question, we used data for all hospitalizations in England among 0-17 year olds from 1 February 2019 to 31 January 2021. We examined how sociodemographic factors and comorbidities might be risk factors for pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission among hospitalizations due to the following causes: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and pediatric inflammatory multi-system syndrome temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2 (PIMS-TS) in the first pandemic year (2020-2021); hospitalizations due to all other non-traumatic causes in 2020-2021; hospitalizations due to all non-traumatic causes in 2019-2020; and hospitalizations due to influenza in 2019-2020. Risk of PICU admission and death from COVID-19 or PIMS-TS in CYP was very low. We identified 6,338 hospitalizations with COVID-19, of which 259 were admitted to a PICU and eight CYP died. We identified 712 hospitalizations with PIMS-TS, of which 312 were admitted to a PICU and fewer than five CYP died. Hospitalizations with COVID-19 and PIMS-TS were more common among males, older CYP, those from socioeconomically deprived neighborhoods and those who were of non-White ethnicity (Black, Asian, Mixed or Other). The odds of PICU admission were increased in CYP younger than 1 month old and decreased among 15-17 year olds compared to 1-4 year olds with COVID-19; increased in older CYP and females with PIMS-TS; and increased for Black compared to White ethnicity in patients with COVID-19 and PIMS-TS. Odds of PICU admission in COVID-19 were increased for CYP with comorbidities and highest for CYP with multiple medical problems. Increases in odds of PICU admission associated with different comorbidities in COVID-19 showed a similar pattern to other causes of hospitalization examined and, thus, likely reflect background vulnerabilities. These findings identify distinct risk factors associated with PICU admission among CYP with COVID-19 or PIMS-TS that might aid treatment and prevention strategies.

Do school closures and school reopenings affect community transmission of COVID-19? A systematic review of observational studies.

OBJECTIVES: To systematically reivew the observational evidence of the effect of school closures and school reopenings on SARS-CoV-2 community transmission. SETTING: Schools (including early years settings, primary schools and secondary schools). INTERVENTION: School closures and reopenings. OUTCOME MEASURE: Community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (including any measure of community infections rate, hospital admissions or mortality attributed to COVID-19). METHODS: On 7 January 2021, we searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, CINAHL, the WHO Global COVID-19 Research Database, ERIC, the British Education Index, the Australian Education Index and Google, searching title and abstracts for terms related to SARS-CoV-2 AND terms related to schools or non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We used the Cochrane Risk of Bias In Non-randomised Studies of Interventions tool to evaluate bias. RESULTS: We identified 7474 articles, of which 40 were included, with data from 150 countries. Of these, 32 studies assessed school closures and 11 examined reopenings. There was substantial heterogeneity between school closure studies, with half of the studies at lower risk of bias reporting reduced community transmission by up to 60% and half reporting null findings. The majority (n=3 out of 4) of school reopening studies at lower risk of bias reported no associated increases in transmission. CONCLUSIONS: School closure studies were at risk of confounding and collinearity from other non-pharmacological interventions implemented around the same time as school closures, and the effectiveness of closures remains uncertain. School reopenings, in areas of low transmission and with appropriate mitigation measures, were generally not accompanied by increasing community transmission. With such varied evidence on effectiveness, and the harmful effects, policymakers should take a measured approach before implementing school closures; and should look to reopen schools in times of low transmission, with appropriate mitigation measures.

Roles of cyberbullying, sleep, and physical activity in mediating the effects of social media use on mental health and wellbeing among young people in England: a secondary analysis of longitudinal data.

BACKGROUND: There is growing concern about the potential associations between social media use and mental health and wellbeing in young people. We explored associations between the frequency of social media use and later mental health and wellbeing in adolescents, and how these effects might be mediated. METHODS: We did secondary analyses of publicly available data from the Our Futures study, a nationally representative, longitudinal study of 12 866 young people from age 13 years to 16 years in England. The exposure considered was the frequency of social media use (from weekly or less to very frequent [multiple times daily]) at wave 1 (participants aged 13-14 years) through wave 3 of the study (participants aged 15-16 years). Outcomes were mental health at wave 2 (with high 12-item General Health Questionnaire [GHQ12] scores [≥3] indicating psychological distress), and wellbeing at wave 3 (life satisfaction, feeling life is worthwhile, happiness, and anxiety, rated from 1 to 10 by participants). Analyses were adjusted for a minimal sufficient confounding structure, and were done separately for boys and girls. Cyberbullying, sleep adequacy, and physical activity were assessed as potential mediators of the effects. FINDINGS: Very frequent use of social media increased from wave 1 to wave 3: from 34·4% (95% CI 32·4-36·4) to 61·9% (60·3-63·6) in boys, and 51·4% (49·5-53·3) to 75·4% (73·8-76·9) in girls. Very frequent social media use in wave 1 predicted a high GHQ12 score at wave 2 among girls (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1·31 [95% CI 1·06-1·63], p=0·014; N=4429) and boys (1·67 [1·24-2·26], p=0·0009; N=4379). Persistent very frequent social media use across waves 1 and 2 predicted lower wellbeing among girls only (adjusted ORs 0·86 [0·74-0·99], N=3753, p=0·039 for life satisfaction; 0·80 [0·70-0·92], N=3831, p=0·0013 for happiness; 1·28 [1·11-1·48], N=3745, p=0·0007 for anxiety). Adjustment for cyberbullying, sleep, and physical activity attenuated the associations of social media use with GHQ12 high score (proportion mediated 58·2%), life satisfaction (80·1%), happiness (47·7%), and anxiety (32·4%) in girls, such that these associations (except for anxiety) were no longer significant; however, the association with GHQ12 high score among boys remained significant, being mediated only 12·1% by these factors. INTERPRETATION: Mental health harms related to very frequent social media use in girls might be due to a combination of exposure to cyberbullying or displacement of sleep or physical activity, whereas other mechanisms appear to be operative in boys. Interventions to promote mental health should include efforts to prevent or increase resilience to cyberbullying and ensure adequate sleep and physical activity in young people. FUNDING: None.

Association of quality of paediatric epilepsy care with mortality and unplanned hospital admissions among children and young people with epilepsy in England: a national longitudinal data linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Concerns have been raised about variation in care quality and outcomes among children and young people with epilepsies in England. We aimed to investigate the association between quality of paediatric care, hospital admissions, and all-cause deaths among epilepsy patients. METHODS: In this longitudinal data linkage study of paediatric epilepsy services in England, we linked unit-level data from round 1 (2009-11) and round 2 (2013-14) of the Epilepsy12 national clinical audit, with death registrations from the UK Office for National Statistics and data for unplanned hospital admissions from Hospital Episode Statistics. We investigated the association between unit-level performance in involving a paediatrician with epilepsy expertise, an epilepsy specialist nurse, and a paediatric neurologist (where appropriate) in round 1 and the proportion of adolescents (aged 10-18 years) with epilepsy admitted to each unit who subsequently died during the study period (April 1, 2009, to March 31, 2015). We also investigated whether change in Epilepsy12 performance between the two audit rounds was associated with changes in the standardised ratio of observed-to-expected unplanned epilepsy admissions over the same period. FINDINGS: In 99 units with data for the analyses relating to paediatricians with epilepsy expertise and epilepsy specialist nurses, 134 (7%) of 1795 patients died during the study period, 88 (5%) of whom died after the transition to adult service. In 55 units with data for the analyses relating to paediatric neurologists, 79 (7%) of 1164 patients died, 54 (5%) of whom did so after the transition. In regression models adjusting for population, unit, and hospital activity characteristics, absolute reductions in total mortality risk (6·4 percentage points, 95% CI 0·1-12·7) and mortality risk after transition (5·7 percentage points, 0·6-10·8) were found when comparing units where all versus no eligible patients were seen by a paediatric neurologist. Units where all eligible patients were seen by a paediatric neurologist were estimated to have absolute reductions of 4·6 percentage points (0·3-8·9) in total mortality and of 4·6 percentage points (1·2-8·0) in post-transition mortality, compared with units where no or some eligible patients were seen by a paediatric neurologist. There was no significant association between performance on being seen by an epilepsy specialist nurse or by a paediatrician with epilepsy expertise and mortality. In units where access to an epilepsy specialist nurse decreased, the standardised ratio of epilepsy admissions increased by a mean of 0·21 (0·01-0·42). INTERPRETATION: Among adolescents with epilepsy, greater involvement of tertiary specialists in paediatric care is associated with decreased all-cause mortality in the period after transition to adult services. Reduced access to an epilepsy specialist nurse was associated with an increase in paediatric epilepsy admissions. FUNDING: The Health Foundation.

Progress in adolescent health and wellbeing: tracking 12 headline indicators for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016.

BACKGROUND: Rapid demographic, epidemiological, and nutritional transitons have brought a pressing need to track progress in adolescent health. Here, we present country-level estimates of 12 headline indicators from the Lancet Commission on adolescent health and wellbeing, from 1990 to 2016. METHODS: Indicators included those of health outcomes (disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs] due to communicable, maternal, and nutritional diseases; injuries; and non-communicable diseases); health risks (tobacco smoking, binge drinking, overweight, and anaemia); and social determinants of health (adolescent fertility; completion of secondary education; not in education, employment, or training [NEET]; child marriage; and demand for contraception satisfied with modern methods). We drew data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016, International Labour Organisation, household surveys, and the Barro-Lee education dataset. FINDINGS: From 1990 to 2016, remarkable shifts in adolescent health occurred. A decrease in disease burden in many countries has been offset by population growth in countries with the poorest adolescent health profiles. Compared with 1990, an additional 250 million adolescents were living in multi-burden countries in 2016, where they face a heavy and complex burden of disease. The rapidity of nutritional transition is evident from the 324·1 million (18%) of 1·8 billion adolescents globally who were overweight or obese in 2016, an increase of 176·9 million compared with 1990, and the 430·7 million (24%) who had anaemia in 2016, an increase of 74·2 million compared with 1990. Child marriage remains common, with an estimated 66 million women aged 20-24 years married before age 18 years. Although gender-parity in secondary school completion exists globally, prevalence of NEET remains high for young women in multi-burden countries, suggesting few opportunities to enter the workforce in these settings. INTERPRETATION: Although disease burden has fallen in many settings, demographic shifts have heightened global inequalities. Global disease burden has changed little since 1990 and the prevalence of many adolescent health risks have increased. Health, education, and legal systems have not kept pace with shifting adolescent needs and demographic changes. Gender inequity remains a powerful driver of poor adolescent health in many countries. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Investigating equalisation of health inequalities during adolescence in four low-income and middle-income countries: an analysis of the Young Lives cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate if socioeconomic gradients in health reduce during adolescence (the equalisation hypothesis) in four low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC). SETTING: Analysis of the Young Lives Study cohorts in Ethiopia, Peru, Vietnam and India. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 3395 participants (across the four cohorts) aged 6-10 years at enrolment and followed up for 11 years. OUTCOMES MEASURED: Change in income-related health inequalities from mid-childhood to late adolescence. Socioeconomic status was determined by wealth index quartile. The health indicators included were self-reported health, injuries in the previous 4 years, presence of long-term health problems, low mood, alcohol use, overweight/obesity, thinness and stunting. The relative risk of each adverse health outcome between highest and lowest wealth index quartile were compared across four waves of the study within each country. RESULTS: We found steep socioeconomic gradients across multiple health indicators in all four countries. Socioeconomic gradients remained similar across all waves of the study, with no significant decrease during adolescence. CONCLUSION: We found no consistent evidence of equalisation for income-related health inequalities in youth in these LMIC. Socioeconomic gradients for health in these cohorts appear to persist and be equally damaging across the early life course and during adolescence.

Countdown for UK Child Survival 2017: mortality progress and targets.

BACKGROUND: The Countdown for UK Child Survival tracks recent UK child mortality trends and makes recommendations for improvement. METHODS: We used data from the WHO World Mortality Database to calculate mortality from 1970 to 2014 for 0-19 year olds in the UK and a comparable group of wealthy countries (the EU15+). We used Poisson regression models to assess the significance of apparent differences. We extrapolated model coefficients to estimate future disparites between the UK and the EU15+ to 2030. We proposed goals and intermediate indicators to track UK mortality in keeping with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. RESULTS: UK infant mortality continues to track in the worst decile of EU15+ mortality with 1-4 year mortality in the worst quartile. Annual reductions in total UK mortality have been significantly lower than the EU15+ since 1990 for infant, postneonatal and 1-4 year mortality. If current trends persist, by 2030 UK infant mortality and 1-4 year mortality could be respectively 180% and 145% of EU15+ median mortality. UK non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality among 1-4 years and 15-19 years persists in the worst quartile. UK injury mortality continues in the best quartile. A framework of goals and indicators for UK child survival and health is presented. DISCUSSION: UK mortality among under 10 years of age continues to diverge from the EU15+ median, and UK NCD mortality remains persistently poor. We propose a set of goals to improve UK childhood survival by 2030 and an annual Countdown mechanism to monitor progress towards these targets.

Adolescent cohorts assessing growth, cardiovascular and cognitive outcomes in low and middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: Life-course studies are needed to explore how exposures during adolescence, particularly puberty, contribute to later cardiovascular risk and cognitive health in low and middle-income countries (LMIC), where 90% of the world's young people live. The extent of any existing cohorts investigating these outcomes in LMIC has not previously been described. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature review to identify population cohort studies of adolescents in LMIC that assessed anthropometry and any of cardiovascular risk (blood pressure, physical activity, plasma glucose/lipid profile and substance misuse), puberty (age at menarche, Tanner staging, or other form of pubertal staging) or cognitive outcomes. Studies that recruited participants on the basis of a pre-existing condition or involved less than 500 young people were excluded. FINDINGS: 1829 studies were identified, and 24 cohorts fulfilled inclusion criteria based in Asia (10), Africa (6) and South / Central America (8). 14 (58%) of cohorts identified were based in one of four countries; India, Brazil, Vietnam or Ethiopia. Only 2 cohorts included a comprehensive cardiovascular assessment, tanner pubertal staging, and cognitive outcomes. CONCLUSION: Improved utilisation of existing datasets and additional cohort studies of adolescents in LMIC that collect contemporaneous measures of growth, cognition, cardiovascular risk and pubertal development are needed to better understand how this period of the life course influences future non-communicable disease morbidity and cognitive outcomes.

The impact of income inequality and national wealth on child and adolescent mortality in low and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Income inequality and national wealth are strong determinants for health, but few studies have systematically investigated their influence on mortality across the early life-course, particularly outside the high-income world. METHODS: We performed cross-sectional regression analyses of the relationship between income inequality (national Gini coefficient) and national wealth (Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaged over previous decade), and all-cause and grouped cause national mortality rate amongst infants, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19 and 20-24 year olds in low and middle-income countries (LMIC) in 2012. Gini models were adjusted for GDP. RESULTS: Data were available for 103 (79%) countries. Gini was positively associated with increased all-cause and communicable disease mortality in both sexes across all age groups, after adjusting for national wealth. Gini was only positively associated with increased injury mortality amongst infants and 20-24 year olds, and increased non-communicable disease mortality amongst 20-24 year old females. The strength of these associations tended to increase during adolescence. Increasing GDP was negatively associated with all-cause, communicable and non-communicable disease mortality in males and females across all age groups. GDP was also associated with decreased injury mortality in all age groups except 15-19 year old females, and 15-24 year old males. GDP became a weaker predictor of mortality during adolescence. CONCLUSION: Policies to reduce income inequality, rather than prioritising economic growth at all costs, may be needed to improve adolescent mortality in low and middle-income countries, a key development priority.

Secondary Education and Health Outcomes in Young People from the Cape Area Panel Study (CAPS).

AIM: Education is one of the strongest social determinants of health, yet previous literature has focused on primary education. We examined whether there are additional benefits to completing upper secondary compared to lower secondary education in a middle-income country. METHODS: We performed a longitudinal analysis of the Cape Area Panel Study, a survey of adolescents living in South Africa. We undertook causal modeling using structural marginal models to examine the association between level of education and various health outcomes, using inverse probability weighting to control for sex, age, ethnicity, home language, income, whether employed in past year, region of birth, maternal educational status, marital status, whether currently pregnant and cognitive ability. Educational attainment was defined as primary (grades 1-7), lower secondary (grades 8-9) or upper secondary (grades 10-12). RESULTS: Of 3,432 participants, 165 (4.8%) had completed primary education, 646 (18.8%) lower secondary and 2,621 (76.3%) upper secondary. Compared to those completing lower secondary, males completing upper secondary education were less likely to have a health problem (OR 0.49; 95%CI 0.27-0.88; p = 0.02); describe their health as poor (0.52; 0.29-0.95; p = 0.03) or report that health interferes with daily life (0.54; 0.29-0.99; p = 0.047). Females were less likely to have been pregnant (0.45; 0.33-0.61; p<0.001) or pregnant under 18 (0.32; 0.22-0.46; p<0.001); and having had sex under 16 was also less likely (males 0.63; 0.44-0.91; p = 0.01; females 0.39; 0.26-0.58; p<0.001). Cigarette smoking was less likely (males 0.52; 0.38-0.70; p = <0.001; females 0.56; 0.41-0.76; p<0.001), as was taking illicit drugs in males (0.6; 0.38-0.96; p = 0.03). No associations were found between education and alcohol use, psychological distress, obesity, increased waist circumference or hypertension. CONCLUSION: Completing upper secondary education was associated with improved health outcomes compared with lower secondary education. Expanding upper secondary education offers middle-income countries an effective way of improving adolescent health.