A method to predict and understand fish survival under dynamic chemical stress using standard ecotoxicity data.

The authors present a method to predict fish survival under exposure to fluctuating concentrations and repeated pulses of a chemical stressor. The method is based on toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling using the general unified threshold model of survival (GUTS) and calibrated using raw data from standard fish acute toxicity tests. The model was validated by predicting fry survival in a fish early life stage test. Application of the model was demonstrated by using Forum for Co-ordination of Pesticide Fate Models and Their Use surface water (FOCUS-SW) exposure patterns as model input and predicting the survival of fish over 485 d. Exposure patterns were also multiplied by factors of five and 10 to achieve higher exposure concentrations for fish survival predictions. Furthermore, the authors quantified how far the exposure profiles were below the onset of mortality by finding the corresponding exposure multiplication factor for each scenario. The authors calculated organism recovery times as additional characteristic of toxicity as well as number of peaks, interval length between peaks, and mean duration as additional characteristics of the exposure pattern. The authors also calculated which of the exposure patterns had the smallest and largest inherent potential toxicity. Sensitivity of the model to parameter changes depends on the exposure pattern and differs between GUTS individual tolerance and GUTS stochastic death. Possible uses of the additional information gained from modeling to inform risk assessment are discussed.

Fate of the insecticide lambda-cyhalothrin in ditch enclosures differing in vegetation density.

Use of the insecticide lambda-cyhalothrin in agriculture may result in the contamination of water bodies, for example by spray drift. Therefore, the possible exposure of aquatic organisms to this insecticide needs to be evaluated. The exposure of the organisms may be reduced by the strong sorption of the insecticide to organic materials and its susceptibility to hydrolysis at the high pH values in the natural range. In experiments done in May and August, formulated lambda-cyhalothrin was mixed with the water body of enclosures in experimental ditches containing a bottom layer and macrophytes (at different densities) or phytoplankton. Concentrations of lambda-cyhalothrin in the water body and in the sediment layer, and contents in the plant compartment, were measured by gas-liquid chromatography at various times up to 1 week after application. Various water quality parameters were also measured. Concentrations of lambda-cyhalothrin decreased rapidly in the water column: 1 day after application, 24-40% of the dose remained in the water, and by 3 days it had declined to 1.8-6.5%. At the highest plant density, lambda-cyhalothrin residue in the plant compartment reached a maximum of 50% of the dose after 1 day; at intermediate and low plant densities, this maximum was only 3-11% of the dose (after 1-2 days). The percentage of the insecticide in the ditch sediment was 12% or less of the dose and tended to be lower at higher plant densities. Alkaline hydrolysis in the water near the surface of macrophytes and phytoplankton is considered to be the main dissipation process for lambda-cyhalothrin.