The relationship of biochemical markers of bone turnover to bone density changes in postmenopausal women: results from the Postmenopausal Estrogen/Progestin Interventions (PEPI) trial.

We assessed the associations of eight bone turnover markers (BTMs) with baseline and 1-year percentage changes in lumbar spine and hip bone mineral density (BMD) of 293 postmenopausal women undergoing treatment with hormone replacement therapy (HRT) or placebo using squared correlation coefficients (R2). In 239 women assigned to treatment with estrogen alone or with with estrogen plus progestins (active treatment), mean percentage changes for all markers decreased significantly and remained below baseline values through 3 years of study, whereas mean percentage changes for 54 women assigned to the placebo group showed no significant change from baseline in any marker. At baseline, age and body mass index (BMI) together accounted for 16% and 25% of the variance in spine and hip BMD, respectively. The telopeptide resorption marker, cross-linked N-telopeptide of type I collagen (NTX), alone accounted for 12% and 8% of variance, respectively. Another telopeptide, carboxy-terminal telopeptide of type I collagen (Crosslaps), accounted for 8% and 7% of variance, respectively. A bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (BALP-2) accounted for 8% of variance at the spine and 5% at the hip. No other marker accounted for more than 5% of total variance at either site; adding either baseline NTX, Crosslaps, or BAP-2 to regressions containing age and BMI increased R2 values at the spine and hip to about 22% and 28%, respectively. In the placebo group, baseline spine BMD accounted for 4% of the variance in 1-year spine BMD percentage change, whereas baseline values for age and BMI accounted for 1% and 0% of the variance, respectively; none of the three accounted for more than 0% of hip BMD percentage change; Crosslaps and NTX contributed 5% and 4% to the variance in 1-year spine BMD percentage change, but other markers accounted for < 2% of variance at the spine. At the hip, another BALP (BALP-1) accounted for 4% of variance, but no other baseline marker except NTX accounted for more than 1% of variance. In the active treatment group, baseline values for age, BMI, and spine BMD together accounted for 13% of the percentage change in spine BMD and for 4% of the BMD change at the hip. No individual or pair of baseline markers significantly enhanced these R2 values, but addition of 1-year percentage changes in some individual markers did significantly increase it. The largest R2 value was obtained by adding the percentage change in BALP-2, which increased the R2 in spine BMD percentage change to 20% and that at the hip to 8%. Adding baseline and change variables for all eight markers to the regression increased R2 to 28% at the spine and 12% at the hip. Restricting the set of analyses to individuals who suppressed marker activity beyond the precision error for the measurement did not improve R2s for the regressions. When baseline marker values were stratified into quartiles, only NTX and osteocalcin showed significant relationships between quartile and change in spine BMD, and these did not reach significance at the hip. When the 1-year change in markers was stratified into quartiles, significant relationships with percentage change in spine BMD were observed only for BALP phosphatases. We conclude that BTMs are not a surrogate for BMD to identify women with low bone mass and that they offer little useful information for predicting BMD changes for individual untreated or HRT-treated postmenopausal women.

Effects of estrogen and estrogen-progestin on mammographic parenchymal density. Postmenopausal Estrogen/Progestin Interventions (PEPI) Investigators.

BACKGROUND: In longitudinal studies, greater mammographic density is associated with an increased risk for breast cancer. OBJECTIVE: To assess differences between placebo, estrogen, and three estrogen-progestin regimens on change in mammographic density. DESIGN: Subset analysis of a 3-year, multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial. SETTING: Seven ambulatory study centers. PARTICIPANTS: 307 of the 875 women in the Postmenopausal Estrogen/Progestin Interventions Trial. Participants had a baseline mammogram and at least one follow-up mammogram available, adhered to treatment, had not taken estrogen for at least 5 years before baseline, and did not have breast implants. INTERVENTION: Treatments were placebo, conjugated equine estrogens (CEE), CEE plus cyclic medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA), CEE plus daily MPA, and CEE plus cyclic micronized progesterone (MP). MEASUREMENTS: Change in radiographic density (according to American College of Radiology Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System grades) on mammography. RESULTS: Almost all increases in mammographic density occurred within the first year. At 12 months, the percentage of women with density grade increases was 0% (95% CI, 0.0% to 4.6%) in the placebo group, 3.5% (CI, 1.0% to 12.0%) in the CEE group, 23.5% (CI, 11.9% to 35.1%) in the CEE plus cyclic MPA group, 19.4% (CI, 9.9% to 28.9%) in the CEE plus daily MPA group, and 16.4% (CI, 6.6% to 26.2%) in the CEE plus cyclic MP group. At 12 months, the odds of an increase in mammographic density were 13.1 (95% CI, 2.4 to 73.3) with CEE plus cyclic MPA, 9.0 (CI, 1.6 to 50.1) with CEE plus daily MPA, and 7.2 (CI, 1.3 to 40.0) with CEE plus cyclic micronized progesterone compared with CEE alone. CONCLUSIONS: Further study of the magnitude and meaning of increased mammographic density due to use of estrogen and estrogen-progestins is warranted because mammographic density may be a marker for risk for breast cancer.

Agreement in assessing endometrial pathology: the Postmenopausal Estrogen/Progestin Interventions (PEPI) Trial.

We report on agreement in interpreting endometrial biopsy specimens between the local and central pathologists of the Postmenopausal Estrogen/Progestin Interventions (PEPI) trial. This trial was a 3-year, multicenter, randomized, double-masked, placebo-controlled trial of four groups taking estrogen or estrogen/progestin combinations. A total of 1804 follow-up biopsies were performed in 596 subjects. Relative sensitivity and relative specificity using the diagnosis from the central pathologist as the gold standard and overall agreement are presented. Almost 90% of the diagnoses were reported normal by both readers. There were significant differences in agreement among clinics and treatment arms (p < 0.0001). The visit at which the biopsy specimen was obtained, age at baseline, prior postmenopausal estrogen use, parity, and drug adherence were not associated with agreement between the two readers. Higher proportions of disagreement were seen in two clinics (13% and 11%) compared with the other five clinics (2%-5%). Biopsy specimens from participants who were taking conjugated equine estrogens (CEE) only were more likely to be diagnosed differently by both readers (11%) than biopsy specimens from women taking a placebo (2%) or CEE combined with progestins (5%). Relative specificity varied from 86.4% to 98.9% among the clinics (p < 0.0001). Relative sensitivity was based on a small number of diagnoses, as few biopsy specimens were classified abnormal by the central pathologist. In patients assigned to CEE combined with progestin, 5 of the 7 biopsy specimens that were recorded abnormal by the central pathologist received a normal diagnosis locally. Our findings show that sample size requirements for study designs in which a central reader is used can be at least threefold lower than the requirements for designs relying on local diagnoses. Centralized protocols for endometrial histopathology reading and staff training are highly desirable in multicenter trials.

Effect of postmenopausal hormone therapy on lipoprotein(a) concentration. PEPI Investigators. Postmenopausal Estrogen/Progestin Interventions.

BACKGROUND: Postmenopausal hormone therapy has been reported to decrease levels of lipoprotein (Lp)(a) in cross-sectional studies and small or short-term longitudinal studies. We report findings from a large, prospective, placebo-controlled clinical trial that allows a broad characterization of these effects for four regimens of hormone therapy. METHODS AND RESULT: The Postmenopausal Estrogen/Progestin Interventions study was a 3-year, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial to assess the effect of hormone regimens on cardiovascular disease risk factors in postmenopausal women 45 to 65 years of age. The active regimens were conjugated equine estrogens therapy at 0.625 mg daily, alone or in combination with each of three regimens of progestational agents: medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) at 2.5 mg daily (ie, continuous MPA), MPA at 10 mg days 1 to 12 (ie, cyclical MPA), and micronized progesterone at 200 mg days 1 to 12. Plasma levels of Lp(a) were measured at baseline (n = 366), 12 months (n = 354), and 36 months (n = 342). Assignment to hormone therapy resulted in a 17% to 23% average drop in Lp(a) concentrations relative to placebo (P<.0001), which was maintained across 3 years of follow-up. No significant differences were observed among the four active arms. Changes in Lp(a) associated with hormone therapy were positively correlated with changes in LDL cholesterol, total cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, and fibrinogen levels and were similar across subgroups defined by age, weight, ethnicity, and prior hormone use. CONCLUSIONS: Postmenopausal estrogen therapy, with or without concomitant progestin regimens, produces consistent and sustained reductions in plasma Lp(a) concentrations.