Prenatal diagnosis for women aged 37 years and over: to have or not to have.

Forty percent of pregnant women aged 37 years and over do not have prenatal diagnosis despite being eligible for a free test. The present study aimed to determine how often, and which, untested women were making a choice about this, how many declined an offer and why. A questionnaire was given to untested women, aged 37 years and over, at no less than 24 weeks gestation. A total of 375 (81.5%) women declined, 72 (16%) were not offered a test and 13 presented too late antenatally. There was a three-fold increased likelihood (OR 3.10 95% CI 1.44, 6.65) of no offer for urban non-English speaking background women, compared with the reference group (metropolitan, English speaking). Unpartnered women were also significantly less likely to receive an offer (OR 3.18, 95% CI 1.19, 8.46). Risk to the baby was the main reason for declining. When offered non-invasive prenatal screening, most decliners of prenatal diagnosis accepted, even those who declined because they were opposed to abortion. We estimate that overall 33% of older pregnant women were being offered and declining amniocentesis and/or chorion villus sampling (CVS). Only 6% were not offered a test, but this small proportion is over-represented by minority groups who must be given equal opportunity to make this choice.

A prospective study of injuries in basketball: a total profile and comparison by gender and standard of competition.

The study aimed to determine prospectively a basketball injury profile, including severity of injury, and to compare the injury profile by gender and standard of competition. Trained observers viewed basketball games, noting the occurrence of injuries, and confirmed injuries by questioning all players on site after the game. Injured players completed a questionnaire and the progress of their injury was monitored by telephone interview. A total of 10,393 basketball participations were observed. An overall injury rate was documented of 18.3 per 1,000 participations (24.7 per 1,000 playing hours), and was comparable by gender and standard of competition. Serious injuries (missing one or more weeks of play) occurred at a rate of 2.89/1,000 participations; with the ankle joint the most common serious injury (1.25/1,000 participations), followed by the calf/anterior leg (0.48/1,000 participations) and knee joint (0.29/1,000 participations). The severity of the injury was significantly associated with the body region injured, with more serious injuries incurred to the lower limb than other body regions (p <.05). The severity of the injury incurred was not related to the standard of competition, gender, age, height, number of games played per week, amount of training undertaken, type of injury, or the mechanism of injury (p> .05).

The relationship between dietary fat intake and risk of colorectal cancer: evidence from the combined analysis of 13 case-control studies.

The objective of this study was to examine the effects of the intake of dietary fat upon colorectal cancer risk in a combined analysis of data from 13 case-control studies previously conducted in populations with differing colorectal cancer rates and dietary practices. Original data records for 5,287 cases of colorectal cancer and 10,470 controls were combined. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) for intakes of total energy, total fat and its components, and cholesterol. Positive associations with energy intake were observed for 11 of the 13 studies. However, there was little, if any, evidence of any energy-independent effect of either total fat with ORs of 1.00, 0.95, 1.01, 1.02, and 0.92 for quintiles of residuals of total fat intake (P trend = 0.67) or for saturated fat with ORs of 1.00, 1.08, 1.06, 1.21, and 1.06 (P trend = 0.39). The analysis suggests that, among these case-control studies, there is no energy-independent association between dietary fat intake and risk of colorectal cancer. It also suggests that simple substitution of fat by other sources of calories is unlikely to reduce meaningfully the risk of colorectal cancer.

Infection control and human immunodeficiency virus: perceptions of risk among nurses and hospital domestic workers.

In December 1993 the first case of patient-to-patient transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), at a doctor's surgery in New South Wales, was documented. In an environment of heightened anxiety about HIV transmission and the adequacy of infection-control measures taken by health providers, it is important to explore perceptions of occupational risk of exposure to infection among hospital workers, reasons why hospital domestic workers sometimes depart from standard procedure in infection control, and how they regard the patients who have infectious diseases. In this study, at an infectious diseases hospital where there is an acute awareness of such issues, nurses had accurate knowledge about control of infection, including HIV, but had limited trust of that knowledge. They gave rationales for why they sometimes departed from infection-control procedures. They had low levels of fear of homosexuals and of acquired immune deficiency syndrome. The hospital domestic workers had lower levels of accurate knowledge about infection control, including HIV, and less trust of that knowledge and of protection by health provider from occupational exposure to infection. They had low levels of fear of homosexuals and HIV. Both groups sought regular, small-group, interactive education programs on infection control and HIV to allow them to discuss their concerns. Participatory education of workers should include eliciting concerns of participants, and should discuss concerns regarding administrators' and educators' interests in their safety and wellbeing.

New estimates of Down syndrome risks at chorionic villus sampling, amniocentesis, and livebirth in women of advanced maternal age from a uniquely defined population.

Current measures of livebirth prevalence of Down syndrome are derived from data obtained up to 20 years ago, before the introduction of the prenatal diagnostic tests amniocentesis and chorionic villus sampling (CVS). For women aged 36-52 years, but who were not tested prenatally, we proposed to make a direct estimate of current livebirth prevalence of Down syndrome. We could also determine prevalence at the time of CVS and amniocentesis in women of the same age undergoing prenatal testing. Differences in these prevalences allow an estimation of the relative loss of Down syndrome during pregnancy. In Victoria, Australia, we identified 3041 women having CVS, 7504 having amniocentesis, and 13,139 having no test. Smoothed regression estimates of age-specific livebirth prevalence were found to be higher than in the early studies. The estimate of spontaneous loss was 17 per cent between the time of CVS and amniocentesis, and 18 per cent after the time of amniocentesis. The latter figure is lower than previous estimates and may be explained by a greater likelihood of a Down syndrome fetus surviving to be liveborn, given the modern approach to early obstetric intervention. These current risk estimates of livebirth may be useful updates for genetic counselling, but perhaps more importantly, may be used as precise maternal age-related risk figures, necessary in the design and implementation of prenatal screening programmes for Down syndrome.

Perceived religiousness is protective for colorectal cancer: data from the Melbourne Colorectal Cancer Study.

The perceived or self-reported degree of 'religiousness' was obtained by interview from 715 colorectal cancer patients and 727 age/sex matched community controls, as part of a large, comprehensive population-based study of colorectal cancer incidence, aetiology and survival (The Melbourne Colorectal Cancer Study) conducted in Melbourne, Australia. Self-reported or perceived 'religiousness', as defined in the study, was a statistically significant protective factor [relative risk (RR) = 0.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.6-0.9, P = 0.002]. This statistically significant protection remained after the previously determined major risk factors found in the study, namely a family history of colorectal cancer, dietary risk factors, beer consumption, number of children and age at birth of the first child, were statistically corrected for (P = 0.004). There was no association between Dukes' staging of the cancer and perceived degree of 'religiousness' (P = 0.42). Although self-reported or perceived 'religiousness' was associated with a median survival time of 62 months compared with 52 months in those self-reporting as being 'non-religious', this difference was not statistically significant (P = 0.64).

Assessing the extent of the Australian HIV epidemic from AIDS surveillance data.

Current knowledge about human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease is used to assess past and future trends in Australian HIV/AIDS (acquired immune deficiency syndrome) incidence, focusing on the precision with which such assessments can be made. The statistical method of back-projection is applied to reconstruct the past pattern of HIV incidence from surveillance data on AIDS incidence to June 1992. The results indicate that HIV incidence rose rapidly in the early 1980s to peak in 1983-1984, followed by a sharp decline. This finding is insensitive to plausible variations from the assumptions made, and is consistent with both success in preventive strategies and high levels of infection in a subgroup having a high probability of exposure. Cumulative HIV incidence to the end of 1987 is estimated with a 90 per cent confidence interval from 9,350 to 10,350. Estimation of the cumulative HIV incidence to June 1992 is less precise, with a 90 per cent confidence interval of 12,900 to 17,800. After adjustment for underreporting the incidence could be as high as 22,000, but only if recent infection rates, which cannot be quantified accurately, were very high. Based on data to June 1992, the estimated trend in AIDS incidence indicates 680 new cases in 1993, rising gradually to 695 in 1995. The estimated rate of increase in AIDS incidence over the recent past and near future is significantly less than that observed earlier in the epidemic. This is a consequence of both the earlier peak in HIV incidence and the effect of therapy.

Oral and pharyngeal cancer, diet, smoking, alcohol, and serum vitamin A and beta-carotene levels: a case-control study in men.

A case-control study was conducted in Melbourne, Australia. Forty-one men with histologically confirmed squamous cell oral or pharyngeal cancer were compared with 398 male community controls. A statistically significant increase in risk was found for alcohol (ethanol) consumption and for smoking, and there was a synergistic effect for these two exposures. Statistically significant protection was noted with increasing intake of dietary vitamin C, dietary beta-carotene, fruit, vegetables, and dietary fiber. The mean serum levels of beta-carotene and vitamin A were statistically significantly lower when the cases were compared with another set of 88 male controls of a similar age who were hospitalized for minor surgical operations. This study confirms a causal effect of smoking and alcohol and a protective role for a high dietary intake of fruit, vegetables, cereals, and, particularly, beta-carotene- and vitamin C-containing foods.

Smoking and colorectal cancer risk: data from the Melbourne Colorectal Cancer Study and brief review of literature.

Lifetime smoking data were obtained from 715 colorectal cancer cases and 727 age/sex matched community controls as one part of a large, comprehensive, population-based study of colorectal cancer aetiology and survival in Melbourne, Australia, The Melbourne Colorectal Cancer Study. Statistically significant associations were found for those males smoking handrolled cigarettes and for cigar-/pipe-smoking males with colon cancer. Review of 18 previous case control studies of colorectal cancer showed an elevated risk for cigar-smoking black males in one study, a statistically non-significant increased risk for current smokers in one of 3 cohort studies and a statistically significant elevation of risk for smokers in 2 of 3 studies of adenomatous large-bowel polyps. Although at present there is insufficient evidence to link smoking with large-bowel cancer, the possibility that ingested tobacco is in some way carcinogenic for the colorectal mucosa may be worth further study.

Attributable risk for diet, alcohol, and family history in the Melbourne Colorectal Cancer Study.

From the data obtained in a large comprehensive population-based case-control study of colorectal cancer (The Melbourne Colorectal Cancer Study), attributable risk was calculated for a family history of colorectal cancer in near relatives for diet (when > or = 5 of the 11 previously determined dietary risk factors were present) and for beer consumption (for rectal cancer only). The attributable risk was 11% in the presence of a family history of colorectal cancer and 46% in the presence of five or more dietary risk factors. The attributable risk for rectal cancer in the presence of beer consumption was 31% in males and 11% in females. These data are relevant in the consideration of primary prevention of colorectal cancer in Australia, but their general application needs to be approached with caution in view of major differences in the genetic background and the dietary practices in various regions of the world and in view of the uncertainty of what is achievable change, especially for dietary practices.

Diet, alcohol, smoking, serum beta-carotene, and vitamin A in male nonmelanocytic skin cancer patients and controls.

A case-control study was conducted in Melbourne, Australia of 88 consecutive males admitted for the surgical removal of a nonmelanocytic skin cancer (histologically confirmed basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma) and of 88 male control patients admitted for small elective surgical procedures. In both cases and controls, previous diet, alcohol consumption, and smoking habit were investigated and serum beta-carotene and vitamin A levels were measured. A statistically significant inverse relationship was found between the risk of skin cancer and a high intake of fish (p = 0.05); vegetables in general (p < 0.001); beans, lentils, or peas (p < 0.001), carrots, silverbeet (Swiss chard), or pumpkin (p < 0.001); cruciferous vegetables (cabbage, brussel sprouts, or broccoli) (p < 0.001); and beta-carotene- and vitamin C-containing foods (p = 0.004). Cases had a lower mean serum level of beta-carotene (p < 0.001) and vitamin A (p = 0.02) than controls. The incidence of skin cancer in the study was inversely related to the level of serum beta-carotene (p < 0.0001). The correlation coefficient between dietary beta-carotene/vitamin C and serum beta-carotene was 0.22 (p = 0.04). Smoking and alcohol consumption showed no statistically significant association with the risk of nonmelanocytic skin cancer. The results were similar for both cell types. A high intake of vegetables including cruciferous vegetables, beta-carotene- and vitamin C-containing foods, and fish appears to be protective for nonmelanocytic skin cancer, and this deserves further study, as does the possible etiologic relevance of the low serum levels of beta-carotene and vitamin A.

The effect of family history of cancer, religion, parity and migrant status on survival in colorectal cancer. The Melbourne Colorectal Cancer Study.

The association between 5-year survival and several risk factors was investigated in 705 histologically confirmed, new cases of colorectal adenocarcinoma as one aspect of a comprehensive population-based study of large bowel cancer incidence, aetiology and survival--the Melbourne Colorectal Cancer Study. 5-year survival was not influenced by the previously determined risk of a family history of colorectal cancer in near-relatives. Similarly, other previously determined risk factors of religion, number of children, age at birth of first child and migrant status did not influence survival.

A method of non-parametric back-projection and its application to AIDS data.

The method of back-projection has been used to estimate the unobserved past incidence of infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and to obtain projections of future AIDS incidence. Here a new approach to back-projection, which avoids parametric assumptions about the form of the HIV infection intensity, is described. This approach gives the data greater opportunity to determine the shape of the estimated intensity function. The method is based on a modification of an EM algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation that incorporates smoothing of the estimated parameters. It is easy to implement on a computer because the computations are based on explicit formulae. The method is illustrated with applications to AIDS data from Australia, U.S.A. and Japanese haemophiliacs.

Personality as a risk factor in large bowel cancer: data from the Melbourne Colorectal Cancer Study.

In a case control study which formed one arm of a large, population-based investigation of colorectal cancer incidence, aetiology and survival. 'The Melbourne Colorectal Cancer Study', among others, 22 psychosocially orientated questions were asked by personal interview of 637 histologically confirmed new cases of colorectal cancer and 714 age/sex frequency matched community controls, from Melbourne (population 2.81 million). Self-reported childhood or adult life 'unhappiness' was statistically significantly more common among the cancer cases, while 'unhappiness with retirement' was similarly distributed among cases and controls. Questions which were formulated to test a particular personality profile as a cancer risk, and which included the elements of denial and repression of anger and of other negative emotions, a commitment to prevailing social norms resulting in the external appearance of a 'nice' or 'good' person, a suppression of reactions which may offend others and the avoidance of conflict, showed a statistically significant discrimination between cases and controls. The risk of colorectal cancer with respect to this model was independent of the previously found risk factors of diet, beer intake, and family history of colorectal cancer, and was also independent of other potential confounding factors of socioeconomic level, marital status, religion and country of birth. Although the results must be interpreted with caution, the data are consistent with the hypothesis that this personality type may play a role in the clinical expression of colorectal cancer and merits further study.

Colorectal polyps, diet, alcohol, and family history of colorectal cancer: a case-control study.

A case-control study was conducted in Melbourne, Australia. Cases (n = 49) were patients who had one or more histologically confirmed adenomatous polyps larger than 1 cm in diameter previously removed by endoscopy. In both the cases and the community controls (n = 727), previous diet, alcohol consumption, and family history of colorectal cancer in near relatives were investigated. The family history rate of colorectal cancer was similar in the two groups. Those with adenomatous polyps were found to have a low fiber/vegetable intake (p = 0.04); in males, there was a high intake of beef (p = 0.04), milk drinks (p = 0.01), and beer (p = 0.05). This study provides further evidence for the hypothesis that dietary factors and alcohol consumption may play a role in the development of adenomatous colorectal polyps and that these factors are similar to dietary risk factors for colorectal cancer.

Recent life change and large bowel cancer. Data from the Melbourne Colorectal Cancer Study.

In a large, population based, epidemiological study of colorectal cancer, The Melbourne Colorectal Cancer Study, several etiological factors were investigated. Persons' recent life changes, as well as the degree of upset they experienced as a result of these changes, were included. Interviews with 715 histologically confirmed new cases of colorectal cancer occurring over a 12-month period in Melbourne, Australia, and with 727 age and sex matched community controls were conducted. As one of the methods of assessing any effect of recall bias, 179 hospital controls were also investigated. Major illness or death of a family member, major family problems and major work problems were found to be significantly more common for cases over the 5 years preceding diagnosis compared to controls. Cases also reported being significantly more upset with their recent life changes than did controls. No significant differences in results were found between males and females, or between colon cancer and rectal cancer patients. Although the possibility of recall bias, was not completely controlled for in this study, it was probably not an important factor in explaining case-control differences. Recent life changes, and their perceptions, may have significance in the development of large bowel cancer.

Survival in patients with large-bowel cancer. A population-based investigation from the Melbourne Colorectal Cancer Study.

Five-year survival data were obtained in 97 percent or 1105 of 1140 new patients with histologically confirmed colorectal adenocarcinoma during a 12-month period in 1981 and 1982, as part of a large comprehensive population-based study of colorectal cancer incidence, etiology, and survival, The Melbourne Colorectal Cancer Study. Fifteen percent of patients were Dukes' A stage, 32 percent were Dukes' B, 25 percent were Dukes' C, and 29 percent were Dukes' D. At five years after diagnosis, the observed survival rate was 36 percent and the adjusted rate was 42 percent. Dukes' staging was a highly discriminating factor in survival (P less than 0.001). Survival rates were better in women than in men and better for patients with colon cancer than for patients with rectal cancer. Survival by Dukes' staging was not affected by colon subsite or by the tumor being the first and single tumor, metachronous tumor, or synchronous tumor. The survival of younger patients was better for Dukes' stages A, B, and C, and worse for Dukes' D. Survival was worse in the presence of bowel perforation in Dukes' C and D stages. Within Dukes' D (incurable cases), survival was best in the absence of hepatic metastases, slightly worse when only hepatic metastases were present, and poorest in the presence of both hepatic and extrahepatic metastases. Statistical modeling of survival determinants other than staging indicated that cell differentiation had the largest effect (survival decreasing with poor cell differentiation), followed by site (survival worse for rectal cancer than colon cancer), then age (survival better for younger patients), while bowel perforation had the smallest effect on survival.

Body weight and physical activity as predictors of colorectal cancer risk.

The associations between colorectal cancer and body weight (expressed as body mass index) and between colorectal cancer and physical activity were examined in 715 histologically confirmed cases of colorectal adenocarcinoma and 727 age- and sex-matched controls. The data were obtained from a large, population-based study, The Melbourne Colorectal Cancer Study, which was conducted in Melbourne, Australia. There was a statistically significant increase in the risk of rectal cancer but not of colon cancer in overweight and obese males but not in females. This association for males remained statistically significant after adjustment was made for dietary risk factors previously established for this study (Nutr Cancer 9, 21-42, 1987), with the exception of sodium intake, which produced a downward modification of the relative risk close to unity. The increased risk of rectal cancer in overweight and obese males was modified by beer intake, which was previously found to be a risk for rectal cancer in males in this study. Various levels of physical activity were not statistically significantly associated with the risk of colorectal cancer in either males or females. Also, the colorectal cancer risks associated with the body mass index were not significantly altered by adjustment for the physical activity level.

Oral contraceptive use does not protect against large bowel cancer.

The association between oral contraceptive (OC) use and colorectal cancer was examined in 190 female colorectal cancer cases and 200 age-matched female controls in data derived from a population-based study of large bowel cancer, "The Melbourne Colorectal Cancer Study" conducted in Melbourne, Australia. There were 47 cases (24 colon cancer, 23 rectal cancer cases) and 39 controls, who were past OC users. After adjustment was made for the confounding factors of age, number of children and age at birth of first child, a statistically significant risk was found among rectal cancer OC users, but not among colon cancer OC users (RR rectal cancer = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.00-4.14, p = 0.04; RR colon cancer = 1.17, 95% CI = 0.59-2.29, p = 0.60). These risks were not affected by adjustment for socioeconomic level, country of birth, religion, previous diet and family history of colorectal cancer. Rectal cancer risk was higher among those OC users who were also beer drinkers (RR = 6.96, 95% CI 2.09-23.1, p = 0.001).