Trade-Off and Projecting Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services under Different Policies Scenarios: A Case Study in Central China.

Predicting the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and trade-off/synergy relationships of ecosystem service value (ESV) under different policy scenarios is of great significance for realizing regional sustainable development. This study established a framework and used the geographical simulation and optimization systems-future land use simulation (GeoSOS-FLUS) model and bivariate local autocorrelation analysis to stimulate and predict the impact of land use change on the ESV of Anyang City from 1995 to 2025. We also explored the trade-offs and synergy among ecosystem services under three policy scenarios (natural evolution, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection) in 2025. Results show that (1) the land use change in Anyang from 1995 to 2025 was significant, and the degree of land use change under the cultivated land and ecological protection scenarios was more moderate than that under the natural evolution scenario; (2) The total ESV decreased between 1995 and 2015, amounting to losses of 1126 million yuan, and the decline from 2015 to 2025 under the natural evolution scenario was more significant than those under the cultivated land protection and ecological protection scenarios; and (3) an obvious synergy was observed between various ecosystem services in Anyang City under different scenarios in 2025, and the most significant synergy was observed under the natural evolution scenario. In terms of spatial distribution, the agglomeration of "high-high" synergy in the west and "low-low" synergy in the central region was significant. Local areas showed "high-low" and "low-high" trade-off relationships scattered between their built land and woodland or cultivated land. The proposed framework can provide certain scientific support for regulating land use and ecosystem services in rapidly urbanized areas.

Evaluating the ecological benefits of plantations in arid areas from the perspective of ecosystem service supply and demand-based on emergy analysis.

Plantations can significantly improve the ecological environment of arid areas. However, in the arid area of Northwestern China, plantations consume several thousand cubic meters of water per hectare per year, which also has a negative effect. By evaluating the relationship between the supply and demand of ecosystem services, the positive and negative benefits of plantations can be effectively identified for regional sustainable development. This study took typical arid regions as examples and evaluated the changes in ecosystem services before and after the conversion of a desert shrub system to a plantation system based on emergy analysis. The relationship between the supply and demand of various ecosystem services from different stakeholder perspectives was investigated and combined with the degree of ecosystem service demand obtained from the participatory survey. Results showed the following. (1) The ecosystem services provided by vegetation increased, the ecosystem services provided by water resources decreased, and the total service decreased by 6.89E+17 sej. (2) The relationship between the supply and demand of ecosystem services provided by water resources was of the "low-high" type. Dust purification was of the "high-high" type, and carbon sequestration and soil conservation were of the "high-low" type. (3) From the perspective of citizens, the matching degrees of the supply and demand of dust purification and soil conservation services were 21.75% and 9.38% higher than those of farmers, respectively. From the perspective of farmers, the matching degrees of the supply and demand of water supply, water purification, power supply and sediment transport, and carbon sequestration were 9.90%, 10.96%, 3.22%, and 18.28% higher than those of citizens, respectively. In summary, attention should be given to the efficient use and conservation of water resources and the promotion of the coordinated development of ecosystem services by comparing the differences in matching degrees of supply and demand among different stakeholders when constructing plantations. Meanwhile, the distribution of water resources should be given attention to protect the water demand of citizens in a targeted manner for effectively improving the level of regional well-being.

Evaluation and simulation of the impact of land use change on ecosystem services based on a carbon flow model: A case study of the Manas River Basin of Xinjiang, China.

Land use change affects ecosystem services by changing the structure and function of ecosystems. Carbon flows throughout natural and socioeconomic systems can effectively reveal this process. The Manas River Basin has experienced rapid oasis expansion for decades, and land use change in the basin is very typical. Oasis expansion has caused a large amount of cropland to invade natural vegetation, thus affecting ecosystem services. This study used a biomass-based ecosystem service estimation model to assess changes in ecosystem services in the Manas River Basin. The carbon flow model was constructed using energy systems language, and the future development of ecosystem services was simulated based on different land use scenarios. The results show the following: (1) From 1980 to 2015, the river basin provisioning service was continuously optimized, while the regulating, supporting and cultural services were reduced. (2) If the expansion of cropland continues, then carbon will be transferred from the natural ecosystem to the cropland. Regulation, support and cultural services in the basin continue to decrease. Due to the shortage of water resources in the basin, the growth of provisioning services is limited. (3) If the project of returning cropland to grassland is implemented, then the carbon in the natural ecosystem will gradually recover. The regulating, supporting and cultural services of the river basin are rising, but provisioning services are gradually decreasing. In general, the model based on energy systems language can reflect the ecological process within the system and effectively reveal the carbon flow process between ecosystems. The use of carbon to quantify ecosystem services can harmonize dimensions, facilitate comparisons, and mitigate errors in outcomes due to different evaluation criteria or subjective factors. Therefore, this study combines energy systems language with carbon flow, which helps to more rationally explore the impact of land use change on ecosystem services, thereby providing valuable information for river basin management.