Safety of treating acute pulmonary embolism at home: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Home treatment is considered safe in acute pulmonary embolism (PE) patients selected by a validated triage tool (e.g. simplified PE severity index score or Hestia rule), but there is uncertainty regarding the applicability in underrepresented subgroups. The aim was to evaluate the safety of home treatment by performing an individual patient-level data meta-analysis. METHODS: Ten prospective cohort studies or randomized controlled trials were identified in a systematic search, totalling 2694 PE patients treated at home (discharged within 24 h) and identified by a predefined triage tool. The 14- and 30-day incidences of all-cause mortality and adverse events (combined endpoint of recurrent venous thromboembolism, major bleeding, and/or all-cause mortality) were evaluated. The relative risk (RR) for 14- and 30-day mortalities and adverse events is calculated in subgroups using a random effects model. RESULTS: The 14- and 30-day mortalities were 0.11% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.0-0.24, I2 = 0) and 0.30% (95% CI 0.09-0.51, I2 = 0). The 14- and 30-day incidences of adverse events were 0.56% (95% CI 0.28-0.84, I2 = 0) and 1.2% (95% CI 0.79-1.6, I2 = 0). Cancer was associated with increased 30-day mortality [RR 4.9; 95% prediction interval (PI) 2.7-9.1; I2 = 0]. Pre-existing cardiopulmonary disease, abnormal troponin, and abnormal (N-terminal pro-)B-type natriuretic peptide [(NT-pro)BNP] at presentation were associated with an increased incidence of 14-day adverse events [RR 3.5 (95% PI 1.5-7.9, I2 = 0), 2.5 (95% PI 1.3-4.9, I2 = 0), and 3.9 (95% PI 1.6-9.8, I2 = 0), respectively], but not mortality. At 30 days, cancer, abnormal troponin, and abnormal (NT-pro)BNP were associated with an increased incidence of adverse events [RR 2.7 (95% PI 1.4-5.2, I2 = 0), 2.9 (95% PI 1.5-5.7, I2 = 0), and 3.3 (95% PI 1.6-7.1, I2 = 0), respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of adverse events in home-treated PE patients, selected by a validated triage tool, was very low. Patients with cancer had a three- to five-fold higher incidence of adverse events and death. Patients with increased troponin or (NT-pro)BNP had a three-fold higher risk of adverse events, driven by recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding.

Circulating Blood Biomarkers and Risk of Venous Thromboembolism in Cancer Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cancer patients have an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Currently, the availability of highly discriminatory prediction models for VTE in cancer patients is limited. The implementation of biomarkers in prediction models might lead to refined VTE risk prediction. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we aimed to evaluate candidate biomarkers and their association with cancer-associated VTE. METHODS: We searched Medline, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central for studies that evaluated biomarkers in adult cancer patients from inception to September 2022. We included studies reporting on VTE after a cancer diagnosis with biomarker measurements performed at a defined time point. Median/mean differences (for continuous measures) and odds ratios (for dichotomous measures) with 95% confidence intervals were estimated and pooled using random-effects models. RESULTS: We included 113 studies in the systematic review. Of these, 50 studies were included in the meta-analysis. We identified two biomarkers at cancer diagnosis (factor VIII and time to peak thrombin), three biomarkers pre-chemotherapy (D-dimer, fibrinogen, and mean platelet volume), and one biomarker preoperatively (platelet count) that had significant median or mean differences. Additionally, we found that hemoglobin <100 g/L and white blood count >11 × 109/L were significantly associated with future VTE risk only when measured at cancer diagnosis. Pre-chemotherapy neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥3 and preoperative platelet count ≥400 × 109/L were also found to be associated with future VTE risk. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, this study identified nine candidate blood biomarkers that may help in optimizing VTE prediction in cancer patients that should be further explored in future studies.

Machine learning analysis of bleeding status in venous thromboembolism patients.

Background: Anticoagulation therapy is the mainstay of therapy for patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE). However, continuing or stopping anticoagulants after the first 3 to 6 months is a difficult decision that requires ascertainment of the risk of bleeding and recurrent VTE. Despite the development of several statistical models to predict bleeding, the benefit of machine learning (ML) models has not been investigated in depth. Objectives: To assess the benefits of ML algorithms in bleeding risk evaluation in VTE patients and gain insight into their baseline information. Methods: The baseline clinical, demographic, and genotype information was collected for 2542 patients with VTE who were on extended anticoagulation therapy. Six unsupervised dimensionality reduction and clustering ML algorithms were used to visualize and cluster the data for patients with major bleeding (118 patients) and nonbleeders. Eight supervised ML algorithms were trained and compared with the previously derived clinical models using a 5-fold nested cross-validation scheme. Results: The baseline dataset for bleeders and nonbleeders showed a high degree of similarity. Two novel clusters were discovered within the dataset for bleeders based on the presence of isolated pulmonary embolism or isolated deep vein thrombosis, though the difference in bleeding risks was not statistically significant (P = .32). The supervised analysis showed that the ML and clinical models have similar discrimination (c-statistics, ∼62%) and calibration performance (Brier score, ∼0.045). Conclusion: The clinical variables recorded at baseline are not distinctive enough to improve bleeding prediction beyond the performance of the existing models, and other strategies or data modalities should be considered.

A deep-learning approach to predict bleeding risk over time in patients on extended anticoagulation therapy.

BACKGROUND: Thus far, all the clinical models developed to predict major bleeding in patients on extended anticoagulation therapy use the baseline predictors to stratify patients into different risk groups. Therefore, these models do not account for the clinical changes and events that occur after the baseline visit, which can modify risk of bleeding. However, it is difficult to develop predictive models from the routine follow-up clinical interviews, which are irregular sequences of multivariate time series data. OBJECTIVES: To demonstrate that deep learning can incorporate patient time series follow-up data to improve prediction of major bleeding. METHODS: We used the baseline and follow-up data that were collected over 8 years in a longitudinal cohort study of 2542 patients, of whom 118 had major bleeding. Four supervised neural network-based machine-learning models were trained on the baseline, follow-up, or both datasets using 70% of the data. The performance of these models was evaluated, along with modified versions of 6 previously developed clinical models, on the remaining 30% of the data. RESULTS: An ensemble of feedforward and recurrent neural networks that used the baseline and follow-up data was the best-performing model, achieving a sensitivity and a specificity of 61% and 82%, respectively, in identifying major bleeding, and it outperformed the previously developed clinical models in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (82%) and area under the precision-recall curve (14%). CONCLUSION: Time series follow-up data can improve major bleeding prediction in patients on extended anticoagulation therapy.

Qualitative experiences, values, and decisional needs of patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism who suffer bleeding-"This pill will keep you alive tonight".

Background: Contemporary guidelines recommend extended-duration anticoagulation among patients with a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE). Little is known about whether this recommendation aligns with patient values after a bleeding complication. Objectives: To explore the experiences, values, and decisional needs of patients with unprovoked VTE related to extended-duration treatment after an anticoagulant-associated bleed. Methods: In this descriptive, qualitative study, face to face online semistructured interviews were conducted with patients with unprovoked VTE who had experienced bleeding and continued anticoagulant treatment in one academic hospital in Canada. Data were analyzed using directed content analysis to identify themes. Themes were mapped onto the Ottawa Decisional Support Framework to identify decisional needs. Results: Between September and December 2021, 14 patients were interviewed (age 41-69 years; 9 females). Many patients were not aware of the option to stop anticoagulation and had limited understanding of the decision about treatment duration. Despite the negative quality-of-life impact of clinically relevant bleeding during VTE treatment, the majority continued anticoagulation due to emotional trauma of VTE diagnosis, a perception that bleeding would be more manageable than VTE recurrence, a desire to maintain a connection to subspecialty care or non-VTE related benefits (eg, cancer diagnosis, protection from COVID-19). Patients' decisional needs included lack of choice awareness, inadequate support for participation, lack of personalized risk stratification, and inadequate information on monitoring and managing heavy menstrual bleeding. Conclusion: Despite the impact of anticoagulant-associated bleeding on quality of life, patients preferred continuing with anticoagulation for reasons extending beyond secondary VTE prevention. Effective decision-support interventions are needed to address unmet decisional needs.

Quality and Patient Safety Metrics: Developing a Structured Program for Improving Patient Care in the Department of Medicine at The Ottawa Hospital.

PROBLEM: Despite increasing recognition of the importance of quality and patient safety in academic medicine, challenges remain with ensuring physician participation in quality assurance and quality improvement efforts, such as lack of compensation and enabling resources. An organizational culture that includes physician leadership and a supportive infrastructure is needed to encourage physician backing of quality and patient safety initiatives. APPROACH: The authors describe the development of a robust quality and patient safety program in the Department of Medicine at The Ottawa Hospital over the past 7 years and highlight how the department changed its organizational culture by prioritizing quality and patient safety and establishing the necessary infrastructure to support this program. Program development was characterized by 4 overarching themes: incentives, administrative structure and physician leadership, training and support, and system enhancements. OUTCOMES: As a result of the program, the department broadly implemented a standardized framework for conducting quality committee meetings and morbidity and mortality rounds and reviewing patient safety incidents and patient experience across its 16 divisions. This has led to 100% departmental compliance on corporate quality assurance metrics each year (e.g., regular multidisciplinary divisional quality committee meetings), along with physician participation in formal quality improvement initiatives that align with larger corporate goals. NEXT STEPS: The authors reflect on lessons learned during the implementation of the program and the essential elements that contributed to its success. Next steps for the program include using a centralized repository of quality and patient safety data, including patient safety incident dashboards, to encourage greater divisional collaboration on quality improvement initiatives and continuous institutional learning over time. Another important avenue will be to create an academic hub for excellence in quality and a formal approach to reward and promote physicians for their quality work.

Antithrombotic Therapy for VTE Disease: Compendium and Review of CHEST Guidelines 2012-2021.

The CHEST Antithrombotic Therapy for Venous Thromboembolism Disease evidence-based guidelines are now updated in a more frequent, focused manner. Guidance statements from the most recent full guidelines and two subsequent updates have not been gathered into a single source. An international panel of experts with experience in prior antithrombotic therapy guideline development reviewed the 2012 CHEST antithrombotic therapy guidelines and its two subsequent updates. All guideline statements and their associated patient, intervention, comparator, and outcome questions were assembled. A modified Delphi process was used to select statements considered relevant to current clinical care. The panel further endorsed minor phrasing changes to match the standard language for guidance statements using the modified Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations (GRADE) format endorsed by the CHEST Guidelines Oversight Committee. The panel appended comments after statements deemed as relevant, including suggesting that statements be updated in future guidelines because of interval evidence. We include 58 guidance statements from prior versions of the antithrombotic therapy guidelines, with updated phrasing as needed to adhere to contemporary nomenclature. Statements were classified as strong or weak recommendations based on high-certainty, moderate-certainty, and low-certainty evidence using GRADE methodology. The panel suggested that five statements are no longer relevant to current practice. As CHEST continues to update guidance statements relevant to antithrombotic therapy for VTE disease, this article serves as a unified collection of currently relevant statements from the preceding three guidelines. Suggestions have been made to update specific statements in future publications.

Balancing risks of recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding with extended anticoagulation: a decision analysis.

Background: A decision to stop or continue anticoagulation after 3 months of anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) should be made by weighing individual risks of recurrence and bleeding. Objectives: To determine the optimal ratio of recurrence risk reduction to increase the risk of bleeding in terms of maximizing quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. Methods: Using a microsimulation model, outcomes within 5 years were simulated after assigning extended treatment if absolute recurrence risk reduction outweighed absolute increase in clinically relevant bleeding risk (International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis definition), weighted by a certain ratio. Data were simulated based on the Bleeding Risk Study, a prospective cohort including patients after ≥3 months of anticoagulation for unprovoked VTE or provoked VTE with history of VTE. The VTE-PREDICT risk score was used to estimate 5-year risks of recurrent VTE and clinically relevant bleeding. Results: Among 10,000 individuals (mean age, 60.2 years, 36% female), the ratio of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.51-3.40; ie, bleeding is considered 0.90 the severity of recurrent VTE), with 99% of patients assigned extended anticoagulation, was considered optimal and resulted in 93 (95% CI, -23 to 203) additional QALYs compared with the least favorable ratio (5.10, 0% extended anticoagulation). At the optimal ratio, treatment based on VTE-PREDICT yielded 44 (95% CI, -69 to 157) additional QALYs versus standard of care. Conclusion: With the current evidence, the optimal ratio between relevant bleeding risk and absolute recurrence risk reduction remains uncertain. Our results confirm that clinical equipoise exists regarding the decision to stop or continue anticoagulation after initial VTE treatment, emphasizing the importance of shared decision-making.

Management and outcomes of superficial vein thrombosis: a single-center retrospective study.

Background: Guidelines suggest but cannot recommend the optimal management of superficial vein thrombosis (SVT). Objectives: To identify the prevalence of asymptomatic deep vein thrombosis (DVT) at the time of SVT diagnosis, and to report the treatment and 3-month complications of patients with only SVT more than 3 cm from deep vein junction (or unknown distance). Methods: We performed a single-center retrospective review of patients referred to the Ottawa Hospital thrombosis unit with ultrasound (US)-diagnosed SVT, and followed patients with only SVT for 3 months. Results: Three hundred sixteen patients with SVT were included. Of the 218 patients without DVT symptoms at presentation, 19 (8.7%; 95% CI, 5.7%-13.2%) were found to have asymptomatic concomitant DVT (11 proximal and 8 distal), and 45 (20.6%) had SVT within 3 cm of the saphenofemoral or saphenopopliteal junctions. Among the 192 patients diagnosed with SVT only, we observed 3-month thrombotic complications in 56 (29.2%; 95% CI, 23.2%-36.0%) patients, with a total of 69 events: 11 (5.7%) DVTs, 2 (1.0%) pulmonary embolisms, 37 (19.2%) SVT extensions, and 19 (9.8%) SVT recurrences. Eighty-two percent (9/11) of the 3-month DVT and pulmonary embolism events occurred in patients who initially received conservative management. Therapeutic treatment doses were most effective. Conclusion: At the time of SVT diagnosis, many patients had asymptomatic DVT and SVT near the deep venous system, supporting the systematic use of initial US in patients clinically diagnosed with SVT. The observed differences in 3-month complication rates, according to the treatment provided, highlight the need for large-scale randomized controlled trials to establish optimal management.

Inherited thrombophilia gene mutations and risk of venous thromboembolism in patients with cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

In the general population, individuals with an inherited thrombophilia have a higher risk of thrombosis, but the effect of inherited thrombophilia on the risk of cancer-associated venous thromboembolism (VTE) remains controversial. Our objective was to determine the risk of VTE in cancer patients with inherited thrombophilia. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting on VTE after a cancer diagnosis in adult patients who were tested for inherited thrombophilia. In September 2022, we searched Medline, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central. Two reviewers screened the abstracts/full texts and assessed study quality using the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool. We used Mantel-Haenszel random-effects models to estimate pooled odds ratios (OR) of VTE and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). We included 37 and 28 studies in the systematic review and meta-analysis, respectively. Most studies focused on specific cancer types and hematologic malignancies were rare. The risk of VTE was significantly higher in cancer patients with non-O (compared with O) blood types (OR: 1.56 [95% CI: 1.28-1.90]), Factor V Leiden, and Prothrombin Factor II G20210A mutations compared with wild types (OR: 2.28 [95% CI: 1.51-3.48] and 2.14 [95% CI: 1.14-4.03], respectively). Additionally, heterozygous and homozygous methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase C677T had ORs of 1.50 (95% CI: 1.00-2.24) and 1.38 (95% CI: 0.87-2.22), respectively. Among those with Plasminogen-Activator Inhibitor-1 4G/5G, Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) A C634G, and VEGF C2578A mutations, there was no significant association with VTE. In conclusion, this meta-analysis provided evidence that non-O blood types, Factor V Leiden, and Prothrombin Factor II G20210A mutations are important genetic risk factors for VTE in cancer patients.

Serial D-dimers after anticoagulant cessation in unprovoked venous thromboembolism: Data from the REVERSE cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: While several risk stratification tools have been developed to predict the risk of recurrence in patients with an unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE), only 1 in 4 patients are categorized as low-risk. Rather than a one-time measure, serial D-dimer assessment holds promise to enhance the prediction of VTE recurrence after oral anticoagulant (OAC) cessation. METHODS: Using the REVERSE cohort, we compared VTE recurrence among patients with normal D-dimer levels (<490 ng/mL among males under age 70, <500 ng/mL in others) at OAC cessation and 1-month follow-up, to those with an elevated D-dimer level at either timepoint. We also evaluated VTE recurrence based on absolute increase in D-dimer levels between the two timepoints (e.g., ∆D-dimer) according to quartiles. RESULTS: Among 214 patients with serial D-dimer levels measured at OAC cessation and 1-month follow-up, an elevated D-dimer level at either timepoint was associated with a numerically higher risk of recurrent VTE than patients with normal D-dimer levels at both timepoints (6.9 % vs. 4.2 % per year, hazard ratio 1.6; 95 % CI 0.9-2.7). Among women with <2 HERDOO2 criteria, a normal D-dimer level at both timepoints predicted a very low risk of recurrent VTE during follow-up (0.8 % per year, 95 % CI 0.1-2.8). Irrespective of baseline value, recurrent VTE risk was only 3 % per year (95 % CI 1.4-5.6) among patients in the lowest ∆D-dimer quartile. CONCLUSION: Serial normal D-dimer levels have the potential to identify patients at a low risk of recurrent VTE. In addition, ∆D-dimer, irrespective of its elevation above cutoff threshold, may predict recurrent VTE.

Thrombophilia gene mutations predict venous thromboembolism in ambulatory cancer patients receiving chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Inherited thrombophilia and cancer both independently increase the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). However, whether the increased VTE risk associated with inherited thrombophilia exists in cancer patients is less clear. OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to determine the influence of inherited thrombophilia on VTE and bleeding risk in moderate-to-high-risk ambulatory cancer patients receiving chemotherapy. METHODS: We conducted a post hoc analysis using blood samples from patients enrolled in the AVERT trial to determine if previously recognized thrombophilia gene mutations (prothrombin factor [F] II G20210A, FXI, fibrinogen gamma, serpin family A member 10, FV K858R, FXIII, FV Leiden [FVL], and ABO blood) were associated with VTE or bleeding during the 7-months after starting chemotherapy. Logistic regression was used to compare heterozygous and homozygous mutations (combined) to wild-type. VTE rates, bleeding rates, and risk differences for mutations stratified by prophylactic anticoagulation use were calculated. RESULTS: Of the 447 patients, there were 39 VTE and 39 bleeding events. The odds of VTE were significantly increased with FVL mutation and non-O blood type (odds ratio [OR]: 5.2; 95% CI: 1.9-14.7 and OR: 2.7; 95% CI: 1.2-6.1, respectively). The use of anticoagulation prophylaxis resulted in complete protection in FVL patients, whereas those not receiving anticoagulation had a VTE rate of 119 per 100 patient-years. Lower VTE rates were also observed in non-O blood type patients taking prophylactic anticoagulation. No other thrombophilia genes tested were significantly associated with VTE or bleeding. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that FVL mutation and ABO blood type may be important VTE predictors in cancer patients starting chemotherapy.

Direct oral anticoagulants for the treatment of splanchnic vein thrombosis - A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Splanchnic vein thrombosis (SVT) is an uncommon manifestation of venous thromboembolism in the splanchnic venous system, with scarce evidence surrounding its management. We assessed the efficacy and safety of direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) to low-molecular-weight heparins (LMWH), vitamin-k antagonists (VKAs), or no anticoagulation. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis with the primary efficacy outcome being complete recanalization of affected vessels and primary safety outcome being major bleeding. Meta-analysis was done using a random-effects model, with dichotomous outcomes being synthesized with odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95 % CIs. RESULTS: Seven non-randomized and one randomized study involving 883 participants were included for analysis. DOACs were more effective than VKAs (OR = 4.33; 95 % CI: 2.4, 7.83; n = 1 study) in non-cirrhotic patients and no anticoagulation in cirrhotic patients (OR = 3.86; 95 % CI: 1.49, 10.03; n = 3 studies). DOACs had a statistically significant reduction in major bleeding compared to observation [OR = 0.09; 95 % CI: 0.03, 0.29; n = 3 studies], LMWHs [OR = 0.13; 95 % CI: 0.03, 0.29; n = 1 study] and VKAs [OR = 0.12; 95 % CI: 0.02, 0.69; n = 2 studies] in non-cirrhotic patients. No difference in major bleeding was found between DOACs and observation, LMWH, or VKAs in cirrhotic patients. CONCLUSION: DOACs appear to be a favorable alternative to VKAs and LMWHs in non-cirrhotic patients. This avenue of research would benefit from larger studies that adjust for SVT etiologies, patient risk factors, and overall bleeding risk.

Accuracy of physicians' intuitive risk estimation in the diagnostic management of pulmonary embolism: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: In patients clinically suspected of having pulmonary embolism (PE), physicians often rely on intuitive estimation ("gestalt") of PE presence. Although shown to be predictive, gestalt is criticized for its assumed variation across physicians and lack of standardization. OBJECTIVES: To assess the diagnostic accuracy of gestalt in the diagnosis of PE and gain insight into its possible variation. METHODS: We performed an individual patient data meta-analysis including patients suspected of having PE. The primary outcome was diagnostic accuracy of gestalt for the diagnosis of PE, quantified as risk ratio (RR) between gestalt and PE based on 2-stage random-effect log-binomial meta-analysis regression as well as gestalts' sensitivity and specificity. The variability of these measures was explored across different health care settings, publication period, PE prevalence, patient subgroups (sex, heart failure, chronic lung disease, and items of the Wells score other than gestalt), and age. RESULTS: We analyzed 20 770 patients suspected of having PE from 16 original studies. The prevalence of PE in patients with and without a positive gestalt was 28.8% vs 9.1%, respectively. The overall RR was 3.02 (95% CI, 2.35-3.87), and the overall sensitivity and specificity were 74% (95% CI, 68%-79%) and 61% (95% CI, 53%-68%), respectively. Although variation was observed across individual studies (I2, 90.63%), the diagnostic accuracy was consistent across all subgroups and health care settings. CONCLUSION: A positive gestalt was associated with a 3-fold increased risk of PE in suspected patients. Although variation was observed across studies, the RR of gestalt was similar across prespecified subgroups and health care settings, exemplifying its diagnostic value for all patients suspected of having PE.

Recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding with extended anticoagulation: the VTE-PREDICT risk score.

AIMS: Deciding to stop or continue anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) after initial treatment is challenging, as individual risks of recurrence and bleeding are heterogeneous. The present study aimed to develop and externally validate models for predicting 5-year risks of recurrence and bleeding in patients with VTE without cancer who completed at least 3 months of initial treatment, which can be used to estimate individual absolute benefits and harms of extended anticoagulation. METHODS AND RESULTS: Competing risk-adjusted models were derived to predict recurrent VTE and clinically relevant bleeding (non-major and major) using 14 readily available patient characteristics. The models were derived from combined individual patient data from the Bleeding Risk Study, Hokusai-VTE, PREFER-VTE, RE-MEDY, and RE-SONATE (n = 15,141, 220 recurrences, 189 bleeding events). External validity was assessed in the Danish VTE cohort, EINSTEIN-CHOICE, GARFIELD-VTE, MEGA, and Tromsø studies (n = 59 257, 2283 recurrences, 3335 bleeding events). Absolute treatment effects were estimated by combining the models with hazard ratios from trials and meta-analyses. External validation in different settings showed agreement between predicted and observed risks up to 5 years, with C-statistics ranging from 0.48-0.71 (recurrence) and 0.61-0.68 (bleeding). In the Danish VTE cohort, 5-year risks ranged from 4% to 19% for recurrent VTE and 1% -19% for bleeding. CONCLUSION: The VTE-PREDICT risk score can be applied to estimate the effect of extended anticoagulant treatment for individual patients with VTE and to support shared decision-making.

The risk of major bleeding in patients with factor V Leiden or prothrombin G20210A gene mutation while on extended anticoagulant treatment for venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: Thrombophilia predisposes to venous thromboembolism (VTE) because of acquired or hereditary factors. Among them, it has been suggested that gene mutations of the factor V Leiden (FVL) or prothrombin G20210A mutation (PGM) might reduce the risk of bleeding, but little data exist for patients treated using anticoagulants. OBJECTIVES: To assess whether thrombophilia is protective against bleeding. METHODS: This multicentre, multinational, prospective cohort study evaluated adults receiving long-term anticoagulants after a VTE event. We analyzed the incidence of major bleeding as the primary outcome, according to the genotype for FVL and PGM (wild-type and heterozygous/homozygous carriers). RESULTS: Of 2260 patients with genotype testing, during a median follow-up of 3 years, 106 patients experienced a major bleeding event (17 intracranial and 7 fatal). Among 439 carriers of FVL, 19 experienced major bleeding and there were no differences between any mutation vs wild-type (hazard ratio [HR], 0.89 [0.53-1.49]; p = .66). The comparison of major bleeding events between the 158 patients with any-PGM mutation (heterozygous or homozygous) vs wild-type also showed a nonstatistically significant difference with HR of 0.53 (0.19-1.43), p = .21. However, multivariate analysis demonstrated that major bleeds or clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding were statistically less likely for patients with either FVL and/or PGM compared with patients with both wild-type factor V and prothrombin genes (HR, 0.73; 95% CI = 0.55-0.97; p = .03). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that thrombophilia, defined as the presence of either FVL or the prothrombin G20210A mutation, is related with a lower rate of major/clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding while on anticoagulants in the extended treatment for VTE.

Redefining clinical venous thromboembolism phenotypes: a novel approach using latent class analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) are commonly classified by the presence or absence of provoking factors at the time of VTE to guide treatment decisions. This approach may not capture the heterogeneity of the disease and its prognosis. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate clinically important novel phenotypic clusters among patients with VTE without cancer and to explore their association with anticoagulant treatment and clinical outcomes. METHODS: Latent class analysis was performed with 18 baseline clinical variables in 3062 adult patients with VTE without active cancer participating in PREFER in VTE, a noninterventional disease registry. The derived latent classes were externally validated in a post hoc analysis of Hokusai-VTE (n = 6593), a randomized trial comparing edoxaban with warfarin. The associations between cluster membership and anticoagulant treatment, recurrent VTE, bleeding, and mortality after initial treatment were studied. RESULTS: The following 5 clusters were identified: young men cluster (n = 1126, 37%), young women cluster (n = 215, 7%), older people cluster (n = 1106, 36%), comorbidity cluster (n = 447, 15%), and history of venous thromboembolism cluster (n = 168, 5%). Patient characteristics varied by age, sex, medical history, and treatment patterns. Consistent clusters were evident on external validation. In Cox proportional hazard models, recurrence risk was lower in the young women cluster (hazard ratio [HR], 0.27; 95% CI, 0.12-0.61) compared with the comorbidity cluster, after adjusting for extended anticoagulation. The risk of bleeding was lower in young men, young women, and older people clusters (HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.38-0.66; HR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.11-0.46; and HR, 0.55; 95% CI 0.41-0.73, respectively). CONCLUSION: The heterogeneity of VTE cases extends beyond the distinction between provoked and unprovoked VTE.

Predicting major bleeding during extended anticoagulation for unprovoked or weakly provoked venous thromboembolism.

No clinical prediction model has been specifically developed or validated to identify patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) who are at high risk of major bleeding during extended anticoagulation. In a prospective multinational cohort study of patients with unprovoked VTE receiving extended anticoagulation after completing ≥3 months of initial treatment, we derived a new clinical prediction model using a multivariable Cox regression model based on 22 prespecified candidate predictors for the primary outcome of major bleeding. This model was then compared with modified versions of 5 existing clinical scores. A total of 118 major bleeding events occurred in 2516 patients (annual risk, 1.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-2.1). The incidences of major bleeding events per 100 person-years in high-risk and non-high-risk patients, respectively, were 3.9 (95% CI, 3.0-5.1) and 1.1 (0.8-1.4) using the newly derived creatinine, hemoglobin, age, and use of antiplatelet agent (CHAP) model; 3.3 (2.6-4.1) and 1.0 (0.7-1.3) using modified ACCP score, 5.3 (0.6-19.2) and 1.7 (1.4-2.0) using modified RIETE score, 3.1 (2.3-3.9) and 1.1 (0.9-1.5) using modified VTE-BLEED score, 5.2 (3.3-7.8) and 1.5 (1.2-1.8) using modified HAS-BLED score, and 4.8 (1.3-12.4) and 1.7 (1.4-2.0) using modified outpatient bleeding index score. Modified versions of the ACCP, VTE-BLEED, and HAS-BLED scores help identify patients with unprovoked VTE who are at high risk of major bleeding and should be considered for discontinuation of anticoagulation after 3 to 6 months of initial treatment. The CHAP model may further improve estimation of bleeding risk by using continuous predictor variables, but external validation is required before its implementation in clinical practice.

The impact of Stress Management and Resailience Training (SMART) on academic physicians during the implementation of a new Health Information System: An exploratory randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: The Stress Management and Resilience Training (SMART) program is an evidence-based intervention designed to build resilience in physicians in clinical practice. The objective of the current study was to assess the impact of the SMART program on academic physicians' levels of resilience, subjective happiness, stress, and anxiety, and specifically during the implementation of a new hospital-wide Health Information System (HIS). METHODS: A total of 40 physicians in a tertiary care academic hospital were randomized (allocation ratio 1:1) to either the SMART intervention or the control condition. The SMART intervention consisted of one mandatory two-hour in-person workshop and an optional 24-week online program, designed to support the materials delivered in the workshop. Outcome measures were assessed using validated scales administered online at baseline and at 3-months and 6-months follow-up. RESULTS: After adjusting for baseline levels of each outcome, no statistically significant intervention effect was observed for resilience, subjective happiness, stress or anxiety at 3-months or 6-months follow-up. However, physicians in the intervention group demonstrated improvements in resilience, stress and anxiety at follow-up that were within the range of clinically relevant differences. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this exploratory study provide modest support that the SMART intervention may be beneficial for proactively addressing physician wellness during the implementation of a new HIS and that larger randomized trials are warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04384861.

Growth Differentiation Factor-15, High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T, and N-Terminal pro-B-type Natriuretic Peptide for Predicting Risk of Venous Thromboembolism in Ambulatory Cancer Patients Receiving Chemotherapy.

Growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-TnT), and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) are associated with increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in noncancer patients. However, the performance of these biomarkers in cancer patients is unknown. Our objective was to assess performance of these biomarkers in predicting VTE in cancer patients at intermediate to high risk for VTE (Khorana Score ≥ 2). We used 1-month plasma samples from AVERT trial patients to determine if GDF-15, NT-proBNP, and hs-TnT levels are associated with VTE incidence between 1 and 7 months from the start of chemotherapy. The minimal Euclidean distance of the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to derive optimal cut-offs for GDF-15 and NT-proBNP given there was no evidence of a commonly used cut-off. Logistic and Fine and Gray competing risk regression analyses were used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and subdistribution hazard ratios, respectively, while adjusting for age, sex, anticoagulation, and antiplatelet therapy. We tested in two groups: all patients (n = 476, Model 1) and all patients with nonprimary brain cancers (n = 454, Model 2). In models 1 and 2, GDF-15 ≥2,290.9 pg/mL had adjusted ORs for VTE of 1.65 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.89-3.08), and 2.28 (95% CI: 1.28-4.09), respectively. hs-TnT ≥14.0 pg/mL was associated with higher odds of VTE in models 1 and 2 (adjusted ORs: 2.26 [95% CI: 1.40-3.65] and 2.03 [95% CI: 1.07-3.84], respectively). For NT-proBNP, levels ≥183.5 pg/mL were not associated with VTE. Similar results were observed in the Fine and Gray analysis. Our results indicate that increased GDF-15 and hs-TnT levels predicted increased VTE risk.