A predictive model for medium-term weight loss response in people with type 2 diabetes engaging in behavioural weight management interventions.

AIMS: To develop and evaluate prediction models for medium-term weight loss response in behavioural weight management programmes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted three longitudinal analyses using the Action for HEalth in Diabetes (LookAHEAD) trial, Weight loss Referrals for Adults in Primary care (WRAP) trial, and routine data from the National Health Service Greater Glasgow and Clyde Weight Management Service (NHS-GGCWMS). We investigated predictors of medium-term weight loss (>5% body weight) over 3 years in NHS-GGCWMS and, separately, predictors of weight loss response in LookAHEAD over 4 years. We validated predictors in both studies using WRAP over 5 years. Predictors of interest included demographic and clinical variables, early weight change in-programme (first 4 weeks) and overall in-programme weight change. RESULTS: In LookAHEAD and WRAP the only baseline variables consistently associated with weight loss response were female sex and older age. Of 1152 participants in NHS-GGCWMS (mean age 57.8 years, 60% female, type 2 diabetes diagnosed for a median of 5.3 years), 139 lost weight over 3 years (12%). The strongest predictor of weight loss response was early weight change (odds ratio 2.22, 95% confidence interval 1.92-2.56) per 1% weight loss. Losing 0.5% weight in the first 4 weeks predicted medium-term weight loss (sensitivity 89.9%, specificity 49.5%, negative predictive value 97.3%). Overall in-programme weight change was also associated with weight loss response over 3 years in NHS-GGCWMS and over 5 years in WRAP. CONCLUSIONS: Not attaining a weight loss threshold of 0.5% early in weight management programmes may identify participants who would benefit from alternative interventions.

Measuring congestion with a non-invasive monitoring device in heart failure and haemodialysis: CONGEST-HF.

AIMS: We examined the effectiveness of a novel cardiopulmonary management wearable sensor (worn for less than 5 mins) at measuring congestion and correlated the device findings with established clinical measures of congestion. METHODS AND RESULTS: We enrolled three cohorts of patients: (1) patients with heart failure (HF) receiving intravenous diuretics in hospital; (2) patients established on haemodialysis, and (3) HF patients undergoing right heart catheterization (RHC). The primary outcomes in the respective cohorts were a Spearman correlation between (1) change in weight and change in thoracic impedance (TI) (from enrolment, 24 h after admission to discharge) in patients hospitalized for HF; (2) lung ultrasound B-lines and volume removed during dialysis with device measured TI, and (3) pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) and sub-acoustic diastolic, third heart sound (S3) in the patients undergoing RHC. A total of 66 patients were enrolled. In HF patients (n = 25), change in weight was correlated with both change in device TI (Spearman correlation [rsp] = -0.64, p = 0.002) and change in device S3 (rsp = -0.53, p = 0.014). In the haemodialysis cohort (n = 21), B-lines and TI were strongly correlated before (rsp = -0.71, p < 0.001) and after (rsp = -0.77, p < 0.001) dialysis. Volume of fluid removed by dialysis was correlated with change in device TI (rsp = 0.49, p = 0.024). In the RHC cohort (n = 20), PCWP measured at one time point and device S3 were not significantly correlated (rsp = 0.230, p = 0.204). There were no device-related adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: A non-invasive device was able to detect changes in congestion in patients with HF receiving decongestion therapy and patients having fluid removed at haemodialysis. The cardiopulmonary management device, which measures multiple parameters, is a potentially useful tool to monitor patients with HF to prevent hospitalizations.

Empagliflozin to prevent progressive adverse remodelling after myocardial infarction (EMPRESS-MI): rationale and design.

AIMS: Patients with a reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) following an acute myocardial infarction (MI) are at risk of progressive adverse cardiac remodelling that can lead to the development of heart failure and death. The early addition of a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor to standard treatment may delay or prevent progressive adverse remodelling in these patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: EMpagliflozin to PREvent worSening of left ventricular volumes and Systolic function after Myocardial Infarction (EMPRESS-MI) is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multi-centre trial designed to assess the effect of empagliflozin on cardiac remodelling evaluated using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) in 100 patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction following MI. Eligible patients were those ≥12 h and ≤14 days following acute MI, with an LVEF <45% by CMR. Patients were randomized to empagliflozin 10 mg once a day or matching placebo. The primary outcome will be change in left ventricular end-systolic volume indexed to body surface area over 24 weeks from randomization. Secondary endpoints include measures of left ventricular and atrial volumes, left ventricular mass, LVEF, and circulating cardiac biomarkers. CONCLUSIONS: EMPRESS-MI will assess the effect of the SGLT2 inhibitor empagliflozin on cardiac remodelling in patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction after an acute MI.

Blood-based epigenome-wide analyses of chronic low-grade inflammation across diverse population cohorts.

Chronic inflammation is a hallmark of age-related disease states. The effectiveness of inflammatory proteins including C-reactive protein (CRP) in assessing long-term inflammation is hindered by their phasic nature. DNA methylation (DNAm) signatures of CRP may act as more reliable markers of chronic inflammation. We show that inter-individual differences in DNAm capture 50% of the variance in circulating CRP (N = 17,936, Generation Scotland). We develop a series of DNAm predictors of CRP using state-of-the-art algorithms. An elastic-net-regression-based predictor outperformed competing methods and explained 18% of phenotypic variance in the Lothian Birth Cohort of 1936 (LBC1936) cohort, doubling that of existing DNAm predictors. DNAm predictors performed comparably in four additional test cohorts (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, Health for Life in Singapore, Southall and Brent Revisited, and LBC1921), including for individuals of diverse genetic ancestry and different age groups. The best-performing predictor surpassed assay-measured CRP and a genetic score in its associations with 26 health outcomes. Our findings forge new avenues for assessing chronic low-grade inflammation in diverse populations.

5-year follow-up of the randomised Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT) of continued support for weight loss maintenance in the UK: an extension study.

BACKGROUND: In DiRECT, a randomised controlled effectiveness trial, weight management intervention after 2 years resulted in mean weight loss of 7·6 kg, with 36% of participants in remission of type 2 diabetes. Of 36 in the intervention group who maintained over 10 kg weight loss at 2 years, 29 (81%) were in remission. Continued low-intensity dietary support was then offered up to 5 years from baseline to intervention participants, aiming to maintain weight loss and gain clinical benefits. This extension study was designed to provide observed outcomes at 5 years. METHODS: The DiRECT trial took place in primary care practices in the UK. Participants were individuals aged 20-65 years who had less than 6 years' duration of type 2 diabetes, a BMI greater than 27 kg/m2, and were not on insulin. The intervention consisted of withdrawal of antidiabetic and antihypertensive drugs, total diet replacement (825-853 kcal per day formula diet for 12-20 weeks), stepped food reintroduction (2-8 weeks), and then structured support for weight-loss maintenance. After sharing the 2-year results with all participants, UK National Health Service data were collected annually until year 5 from remaining intervention participants who received low-intensity dietary support, intervention withdrawals, and the original randomly allocated groups. The primary outcome was remission of type 2 diabetes; having established in the DiRECT trial that sustained weight loss was the dominant driver of remission, this was assumed for the Extension study. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number 03267836. FINDINGS: Between July 25, 2014, and Aug 5, 2016, 149 participants were randomly assigned to the intervention group and 149 were assigned to the control group in the original DiRECT study. After 2 years, all intervention participants still in the trial (101 [68%] of 149) were approached to receive low-intensity support for a further 3 years. 95 (94%) of 101 were able to continue and consented and were allocated to the DiRECT extension group. 54 participants were allocated to the non-extension group, where intervention was withdrawn. At 5 years, DiRECT extension participants (n=85) lost an average of 6·1 kg, with 11 (13%) of 85 in remission. Compared with the non-extension group, DiRECT extension participants had more visits with HbA1c <48 mmol/mol (<6·5%; 36% vs 17%, p=0·0004), without glucose-lowering medication (62% vs 30%, p<0·0001), and in remission (34% vs 12%, p<0·0001). Original control participants (n=149) had mean weight loss 4·6 kg (n=82), and 5 (5%) of 93 were in remission. Compared with control participants, original intervention participants had more visits with weight more than 5% below baseline (61% vs 29%, p<0·0001), HbA1c below 48 mmol/mol (29% vs 15%, p=0·0002), without antidiabetic medication (51% vs 16%, p<0·0001), and in remission (27% vs 4%, p<0·0001). Of those in remission at year 2, 26% remained in remission at 5 years. Serious adverse events in the original intervention group (4·8 events per 100 patient-years) were under half those in the control group (10·2 per 100 patient-years, p=0·0080). INTERPRETATION: The extended DiRECT intervention was associated with greater aggregated and absolute weight loss, and suggested improved health status over 5 years. FUNDING: Diabetes UK.

Socioeconomic deprivation and illness trajectory in the Scottish population after COVID-19 hospitalization.

BACKGROUND: The associations between deprivation and illness trajectory after hospitalisation for coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) are uncertain. METHODS: A prospective, multicentre cohort study was conducted on post-COVID-19 patients, enrolled either in-hospital or shortly post-discharge. Two evaluations were carried out: an initial assessment and a follow-up at 28-60 days post-discharge. The study encompassed research blood tests, patient-reported outcome measures, and multisystem imaging (including chest computed tomography (CT) with pulmonary and coronary angiography, cardiovascular and renal magnetic resonance imaging). Primary and secondary outcomes were analysed in relation to socioeconomic status, using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD). The EQ-5D-5L, Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire (BIPQ), Patient Health Questionnaire-4 (PHQ-4) for Anxiety and Depression, and the Duke Activity Status Index (DASI) were used to assess health status. RESULTS: Of the 252 enrolled patients (mean age 55.0 ± 12.0 years; 40% female; 23% with diabetes), deprivation status was linked with increased BMI and diabetes prevalence. 186 (74%) returned for the follow-up. Within this group, findings indicated associations between deprivation and lung abnormalities (p = 0.0085), coronary artery disease (p = 0.0128), and renal inflammation (p = 0.0421). Furthermore, patients with higher deprivation exhibited worse scores in health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L, p = 0.0084), illness perception (BIPQ, p = 0.0004), anxiety and depression levels (PHQ-4, p = 0.0038), and diminished physical activity (DASI, p = 0.002). At the 3-month mark, those with greater deprivation showed a higher frequency of referrals to secondary care due to ongoing COVID-19 symptoms (p = 0.0438). However, clinical outcomes were not influenced by deprivation. CONCLUSIONS: In a post-hospital COVID-19 population, socioeconomic deprivation was associated with impaired health status and secondary care episodes. Deprivation influences illness trajectory after COVID-19.

In our study, we aimed to understand how socioeconomic factors impact recovery from COVID-19 following hospitalisation. We followed 252 patients, collecting health data and utilising advanced imaging techniques. We discovered that individuals from deprived areas experienced more severe health complications, reported worse quality of life, and required more specialist care. However, their clinical outcomes were not significantly different. This underscores that socioeconomic deprivation affects health recovery, underlining the need for tailored care for these individuals. Our findings emphasise the importance of considering socioeconomic factors in recovery plans post-COVID-19, potentially improving healthcare for those in deprived areas.

Impact of weight loss on cancer-related proteins in serum: results from a cluster randomised controlled trial of individuals with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes is associated with higher risk of several cancer types. However, the biological intermediates driving this relationship are not fully understood. As novel interventions for treating and managing type 2 diabetes become increasingly available, whether they also disrupt the pathways leading to increased cancer risk is currently unknown. We investigated the effect of a type 2 diabetes intervention, in the form of intentional weight loss, on circulating proteins associated with cancer risk to gain insight into potential mechanisms linking type 2 diabetes and adiposity with cancer development. METHODS: Fasting serum samples from participants with diabetes enrolled in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT) receiving the Counterweight-Plus weight-loss programme (intervention, N = 117, mean weight-loss 10 kg, 46% diabetes remission) or best-practice care by guidelines (control, N = 143, mean weight-loss 1 kg, 4% diabetes remission) were subject to proteomic analysis using the Olink Oncology-II platform (48% of participants were female; 52% male). To identify proteins which may be altered by the weight-loss intervention, the difference in protein levels between groups at baseline and 1 year was examined using linear regression. Mendelian randomization (MR) was performed to extend these results to evaluate cancer risk and elucidate possible biological mechanisms linking type 2 diabetes and cancer development. MR analyses were conducted using independent datasets, including large cancer meta-analyses, UK Biobank, and FinnGen, to estimate potential causal relationships between proteins modified during intentional weight loss and the risk of colorectal, breast, endometrial, gallbladder, liver, and pancreatic cancers. FINDINGS: Nine proteins were modified by the intervention: glycoprotein Nmb; furin; Wnt inhibitory factor 1; toll-like receptor 3; pancreatic prohormone; erb-b2 receptor tyrosine kinase 2; hepatocyte growth factor; endothelial cell specific molecule 1 and Ret proto-oncogene (Holm corrected P-value <0.05). Mendelian randomization analyses indicated a causal relationship between predicted circulating furin and glycoprotein Nmb on breast cancer risk (odds ratio (OR) = 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.67-0.99, P-value = 0.03; and OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.78-0.99, P-value = 0.04 respectively), though these results were not supported in sensitivity analyses examining violations of MR assumptions. INTERPRETATION: Intentional weight loss among individuals with recently diagnosed diabetes may modify levels of cancer-related proteins in serum. Further evaluation of the proteins identified in this analysis could reveal molecular pathways that mediate the effect of adiposity and type 2 diabetes on cancer risk. FUNDING: The main sources of funding for this work were Diabetes UK, Cancer Research UK, World Cancer Research Fund, and Wellcome.

Epigenetic Contributions to Clinical Risk Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is among the leading causes of death worldwide. The discovery of new omics biomarkers could help to improve risk stratification algorithms and expand our understanding of molecular pathways contributing to the disease. Here, ASSIGN-a cardiovascular risk prediction tool recommended for use in Scotland-was examined in tandem with epigenetic and proteomic features in risk prediction models in ≥12 657 participants from the Generation Scotland cohort. METHODS: Previously generated DNA methylation-derived epigenetic scores (EpiScores) for 109 protein levels were considered, in addition to both measured levels and an EpiScore for cTnI (cardiac troponin I). The associations between individual protein EpiScores and the CVD risk were examined using Cox regression (ncases≥1274; ncontrols≥11 383) and visualized in a tailored R application. Splitting the cohort into independent training (n=6880) and test (n=3659) subsets, a composite CVD EpiScore was then developed. RESULTS: Sixty-five protein EpiScores were associated with incident CVD independently of ASSIGN and the measured concentration of cTnI (P<0.05), over a follow-up of up to 16 years of electronic health record linkage. The most significant EpiScores were for proteins involved in metabolic, immune response, and tissue development/regeneration pathways. A composite CVD EpiScore (based on 45 protein EpiScores) was a significant predictor of CVD risk independent of ASSIGN and the concentration of cTnI (hazard ratio, 1.32; P=3.7×10-3; 0.3% increase in C-statistic). CONCLUSIONS: EpiScores for circulating protein levels are associated with CVD risk independent of traditional risk factors and may increase our understanding of the etiology of the disease.

Elevated lipoprotein(a) increases risk of subsequent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and coronary revascularisation in incident ASCVD patients: A cohort study from the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Elevated lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is a genetic driver for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). We aimed to provide novel insights into the associated risk of elevated versus normal Lp(a) levels on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in an incident ASCVD cohort. METHODS: This was an observational cohort study of incident ASCVD patients. MACE counts and incidence rates (IRs) per 100-person-years were reported for patients with normal (<65 nmol/L) and elevated (>150 nmol/L) Lp(a) within the first year after incident ASCVD diagnosis and overall follow-up. Cox proportional hazard models quantified the risk of MACE associated with a 100 nmol/L increase in Lp(a). RESULTS: The study cohort included 32,537 incident ASCVD patients; 5204 with elevated and 22,257 with normal Lp(a). Of those with elevated Lp(a), 41.2% had a subsequent MACE, versus 35.61% with normal Lp(a). Within the first year of follow-up, the IRs of composite MACE and coronary revascularisation were significantly higher (p < 0.001) in patients with elevated versus normal Lp(a) (IR difference 6.79 and 4.66). This trend was also observed in the overall follow-up (median 4.7 years). Using time to first subsequent MACE, a 100 nmol/L increase in Lp(a) was associated with an 8.0% increased risk of composite MACE, and 18.6% increased risk of coronary revascularisation during the overall follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: The association of elevated Lp(a) with increased risk of subsequent MACE and coronary revascularisation highlights a population who may benefit from earlier and more targeted intervention for cardiovascular risk including Lp(a), particularly within the first year after ASCVD diagnosis. Proactive Lp(a) testing as part of routine clinical practice can help identify and better manage these higher-risk individuals.

Multiple Cardiac Biomarkers to Improve Prediction of Cardiovascular Events: Findings from the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have investigated whether single cardiac biomarkers improve cardiovascular risk prediction for primary prevention but whether a combined approach could further improve risk prediction is unclear. We aimed to test a sex-specific, combined cardiac biomarker approach for cardiovascular risk prediction. METHODS: In the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), cardiac troponin I (cTnI), cardiac troponin T (cTnT), and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured in stored serum using automated immunoassays. Sex-specific Cox models that included SCORE2 risk factors evaluated addition of single and combined biomarkers for prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Combined biomarker models were compared to a baseline model that included SCORE2 risk factors. RESULTS: The study population comprised 18 383 individuals (58.9% women, median age of 48 years [25th-75th percentile, 35-58 years]). During the median follow up of 11.6 (25th-75th percentile, 10.8-13.0) years, MACE occurred in 942 (5.1%) individuals. The greatest increase in discrimination with addition of individual biomarkers to the base model was for women GDF-15 and for men NT-proBNP (change in c-index: + 0.010 for women and +0.005 for men). For women, combined biomarker models that included GDF-15 and NT-proBNP (+0.012) or GDF-15 and cTnI (+0.013), but not CRP or cTnT, further improved discrimination. For men, combined biomarker models that included NT-proBNP and GDF-15 (+0.007), NT-proBNP and cTnI (+0.006), or NT-proBNP and CRP (+0.008), but not cTnT, further improved discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: A combined biomarker approach, particularly the use of GDF-15, NT-proBNP and cTnI, further refined cardiovascular risk estimates.

Neuropeptide Y is elevated in heart failure and is an independent predictor of outcomes.

AIMS: Neuropeptide Y (NPY) is the most abundant neuropeptide found in the heart and is released alongside norepinephrine following prolonged sympathetic activation, a process that is implicated in the pathophysiology of heart failure (HF). In patients with severely impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) undergoing cardiac resynchronization therapy, higher levels of NPY measured in coronary sinus blood, are associated with poorer outcome. The aim was to examine the association of peripheral venous NPY levels and outcomes in a HF population with a range of LVEF, using a highly sensitive and specific assay. METHODS AND RESULTS: The association between NPY and the composite outcome of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization, its components, and all-cause mortality was examined using Cox regression analyses among 833 patients using a threshold of elevated NPY identified through binary recursive partitioning adjusted for prognostic variables including estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), ejection fraction and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP). The mean value of NPY was 25.8 ± 18.2 pg/ml. Patients with high NPY levels (≥29 pg/ml) compared with low values were older (73 ± 10 vs. 71 ± 11 years), more often male (58.5% vs. 55.6%), had higher BNP levels (583 [261-1096] vs. 440 [227-829] pg/ml), lower eGFR (46.4 ± 13.9 vs. 52.4 ± 11.7 ml/min/1.73 m2 ), and were more often treated with diuretics. There was no associated risk of HF hospitalization with NPY levels ≥29 vs. <29 pg/ml. Higher NPY levels were associated with a greater risk of cardiovascular and all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio 1.56 [95% confidence interval 1.21-2.10], p = 0.003 and 1.30 [1.04-1.62], p = 0.02, respectively). There was no associated risk of HF hospitalization with higher NPY levels. CONCLUSIONS: Peripherally measured NPY is an independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular death even after adjustment for other prognostic variables, including BNP.

Twenty-four-hour ambulatory, but not clinic blood pressure associates with leptin in young adults with overweight or obesity: The African-PREDICT study.

Hypertension and obesity are known pro-inflammatory conditions, and limited studies explored various blood pressure modalities and inflammatory markers in young adults with overweight or obesity (OW/OB). We assessed the relationship of clinic and 24 h ambulatory blood pressure with an array of inflammatory markers in young adults with OW/OB. This cross-sectional study included women and men of Black and White ethnicity (n = 1194) with a median age of 24.5 ± 3.12 years. Participants were divided into normal weight and OW/OB groups according to body mass index. Clinic and 24 h ambulatory systolic and diastolic blood pressure were measured. Inflammatory markers included leptin, interleukin-6, interleukin-8, tumour necrosis factor-α, adiponectin, interleukin-10, and C-reactive protein. After adjustments for age, sex, and ethnicity, the OW/OB group had higher blood pressure and an overall worse inflammatory profile compared to the normal weight group (all p ≤ 0.024). In the OW/OB group, 24 h systolic (r = 0.22; p < 0.001) and diastolic blood pressure (r = 0.28; p < 0.001) correlated with leptin, independent of age, sex, and ethnicity. In fully adjusted regression models, 24 h systolic blood pressure (adj.R2 = 0.25; ß = 0.28; p = 0.035) and diastolic blood pressure (adj.R2 = 0.10; ß = 0.32; p = 0.034), associated with leptin in the OW/OB group and significance remained with additional adjustments for visceral adiposity index. Twenty-four-hour ambulatory, but not clinic blood pressure, is related to leptin in young adults with OW/OB. Leptin shows a stronger relationship with adiposity when compared to other inflammatory markers and may play a role in subcutaneous adiposity-related increased blood pressure.

The metabolomic signature of weight loss and remission in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT).

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: High-throughput metabolomics technologies in a variety of study designs have demonstrated a consistent metabolomic signature of overweight and type 2 diabetes. However, the extent to which these metabolomic patterns can be reversed with weight loss and diabetes remission has been weakly investigated. We aimed to characterise the metabolomic consequences of a weight-loss intervention in individuals with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We analysed 574 fasted serum samples collected within an existing RCT (the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial [DiRECT]) (N=298). In the trial, participating primary care practices were randomly assigned (1:1) to provide either a weight management programme (intervention) or best-practice care by guidelines (control) treatment to individuals with type 2 diabetes. Here, metabolomics analysis was performed on samples collected at baseline and 12 months using both untargeted MS and targeted 1H-NMR spectroscopy. Multivariable regression models were fitted to evaluate the effect of the intervention on metabolite levels. RESULTS: Decreases in branched-chain amino acids, sugars and LDL triglycerides, and increases in sphingolipids, plasmalogens and metabolites related to fatty acid metabolism were associated with the intervention (Holm-corrected p<0.05). In individuals who lost more than 9 kg between baseline and 12 months, those who achieved diabetes remission saw greater reductions in glucose, fructose and mannose, compared with those who did not achieve remission. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We have characterised the metabolomic effects of an integrated weight management programme previously shown to deliver weight loss and diabetes remission. A large proportion of the metabolome appears to be modifiable. Patterns of change were largely and strikingly opposite to perturbances previously documented with the development of type 2 diabetes. DATA AVAILABILITY: The data used for analysis are available on a research data repository ( https://researchdata.gla.ac.uk/ ) with access given to researchers subject to appropriate data sharing agreements. Metabolite data preparation, data pre-processing, statistical analyses and figure generation were performed in R Studio v.1.0.143 using R v.4.0.2. The R code for this study has been made publicly available on GitHub at: https://github.com/lauracorbin/metabolomics_of_direct .

Using trials of caloric restriction and bariatric surgery to explore the effects of body mass index on the circulating proteome.

Thousands of proteins circulate in the bloodstream; identifying those which associate with weight and intervention-induced weight loss may help explain mechanisms of diseases associated with adiposity. We aimed to identify consistent protein signatures of weight loss across independent studies capturing changes in body mass index (BMI). We analysed proteomic data from studies implementing caloric restriction (Diabetes Remission Clinical trial) and bariatric surgery (By-Band-Sleeve), using SomaLogic and Olink Explore1536 technologies, respectively. Linear mixed models were used to estimate the effect of the interventions on circulating proteins. Twenty-three proteins were altered in a consistent direction after both bariatric surgery and caloric restriction, suggesting that these proteins are modulated by weight change, independent of intervention type. We also integrated Mendelian randomisation (MR) estimates of the effect of BMI on proteins measured by SomaLogic from a UK blood donor cohort as a third line of causal evidence. These MR estimates provided further corroborative evidence for a role of BMI in regulating the levels of six proteins including alcohol dehydrogenase-4, nogo receptor and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist protein. These results indicate the importance of triangulation in interrogating causal relationships; further study into the role of proteins modulated by weight in disease is now warranted.

Benefits, risks, barriers, and facilitators to cycling: a narrative review.

There is large potential to increase cycling participation worldwide. Participation in cycling is associated with lower risk of mortality from any cause, and incidence of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes, as well as positive mental health and well-being. The largest potential for health gains likely to come from increasing participation amongst those who do not currently cycle regularly, rather than encouraging those who already cycle regularly to cycle more. Replacing car journeys with cycling can lead to reductions in air pollution emissions and lower pollutant exposure to the general population. Important gaps and uncertainties in the existing evidence base include: the extent to which the health benefits associated with cycling participation are fully causal due to the observational nature of much of the existing evidence base; the real-world economic cost-benefits of pragmatic interventions to increase cycling participation; and the most effective (combination of) approaches to increase cycling participation. To address these uncertainties, large-scale, long-term randomised controlled trials are needed to: evaluate the effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness, of (combinations of) intervention approaches to induce sustained long-term increases in cycling participation in terms of increases in numbers of people cycling regularly and number of cycling journeys undertaken, across a range of population demographic groups; establish the effects of such interventions on relevant outcomes related to health and wellbeing, economic productivity and wider societal impacts; and provide more robust quantification of potential harms of increasing cycling participation, such as collision risks.

Associations and predictive performance of 11 anthropometric measures with incident type 2 diabetes: A prospective cohort study from the UK Biobank.

OBJECTIVE: The study aim was to investigate associations of 11 anthropometric measures with incident type 2 diabetes and compare their predictive performance. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 161,127 White European UK Biobank participants who were free of diabetes at baseline. Anthropometric measures included height, weight, BMI, A Body Shape Index, waist circumference, waist to hip ratio, waist to height ratio (WHtR), hip circumference, visceral adiposity index, hip index, and anthropometric risk index. The associations were examined using Cox proportional hazard models. The differences in C-index were used to compare predictive performance between BMI and other anthropometric measures. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 10.0 (interquartile range: 9.3-10.8) years, during which 6315 participants developed type 2 diabetes. All markers except height and hip index were positively associated with incident type 2 diabetes. The strongest associations were found for WHtR (hazard ratio per 1-SD increment: 2.27 [95% CI 2.19-2.35] in women; 1.96 [95% CI 1.90-2.01] in men). Compared with BMI, WHtR and anthropometric risk index had significantly better type 2 diabetes risk discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: Although most adiposity markers were associated with type 2 diabetes, the magnitude of the associations differed. WHtR had the strongest associations and predictive ability for type 2 diabetes and thus could be a more suitable marker for clinical use.

Prediction of Cardiometabolic Health Through Changes in Plasma Proteins With Intentional Weight Loss in the DiRECT and DIADEM-I Randomized Clinical Trials of Type 2 Diabetes Remission.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the extent to which changes in plasma proteins, previously predictive of cardiometabolic outcomes, predict changes in two diabetes remission trials. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We applied SomaSignal predictive tests (each derived from ∼5,000 plasma protein measurements using aptamer-based proteomics assay) to baseline and 1-year samples of trial intervention (Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial [DiRECT], n = 118, and Diabetes Intervention Accentuating Diet and Enhancing Metabolism [DIADEM-I], n = 66) and control (DiRECT, n = 144, DIADEM-I, n = 76) group participants. RESULTS: Mean (SD) weight loss in DiRECT (U.K.) and DIADEM-I (Qatar) was 10.2 (7.4) kg and 12.1 (9.5) kg, respectively, vs. 1.0 (3.7) kg and 4.0 (5.4) kg in control groups. Cardiometabolic SomaSignal test results showed significant improvement (Bonferroni-adjusted P < 0.05) in DiRECT and DIADEM-I (expressed as relative difference, intervention minus control) as follows, respectively: liver fat (-26.4%, -37.3%), glucose tolerance (-36.6%, -37.4%), body fat percentage (-8.6%, -8.7%), resting energy rate (-8.0%, -5.1%), visceral fat (-34.3%, -26.1%), and cardiorespiratory fitness (9.5%, 10.3%). Cardiovascular risk (measured with SomaSignal tests) also improved in intervention groups relative to control, but this was significant only in DiRECT (DiRECT, -44.2%, and DIADEM-I, -9.2%). However, weight loss >10 kg predicted significant reductions in cardiovascular risk, -19.1% (95% CI -33.4 to -4.91) in DiRECT and -33.4% (95% CI -57.3, -9.6) in DIADEM-I. DIADEM-I also demonstrated rapid emergence of metabolic improvements at 3 months. CONCLUSIONS: Intentional weight loss in recent-onset type 2 diabetes rapidly induces changes in protein-based risk models consistent with widespread cardiometabolic improvements, including cardiorespiratory fitness. Protein changes with greater (>10 kg) weight loss also predicted lower cardiovascular risk, providing a positive outlook for relevant ongoing trials.

Association of Carbohydrate Antigen 125 on the Response to Dapagliflozin in Patients With Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Elevated circulating carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA125) is a marker of congestion and a predictor of outcomes in acute heart failure (HF). Less is known about CA125 in chronic ambulatory HF with reduced ejection fraction. OBJECTIVES: This study examined the association between baseline CA125 (and changes in CA125) and outcomes in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction in the DAPA-HF (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure; NCT03036124) trial and its relationship with the effect of dapagliflozin. METHODS: The primary outcome was a composite of a first episode of worsening HF or cardiovascular death. CA125 was measured at baseline and 12 months following randomization. RESULTS: Median baseline CA125 was 13.04 U/mL (IQR: 8.78-21.13 U/mL) in 3,123 of 4,774 patients with available data. Compared with CA125 ≤35 U/mL (upper limit of normal), patients with CA125 >35 U/mL were at a higher risk of the primary outcome (adjusted HR: 1.59; 95% CI: 1.29-1.96). The adjusted risks of the primary outcome relative to quartile 1 (Q1) (≤8.78 U/mL) were as follow: Q2, 8.79-13.04 U/mL (HR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.71-1.24); Q3, 13.05-21.13 U/mL (HR: 1.22; 95% CI: 0.94-1.59); Q4, ≥21.14 U/mL (HR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.28-2.09). The beneficial effect of dapagliflozin compared with placebo on the primary outcome was consistent whether CA125 was analyzed in quartiles (interaction P = 0.13) or as a continuous variable (interaction P = 0.75). The placebo-corrected relative change in CA125 at 12 months was -5.2% (95% CI: -10.6% to 0.5%; P = 0.07). CONCLUSIONS: In DAPA-HF, elevated CA125 levels were an independent predictor of the risk of worsening HF or cardiovascular death. Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of worsening HF or cardiovascular death regardless of baseline CA125.

The effect of home-based resistance exercise training in people with type 2 diabetes: A randomized controlled trial.

AIMS: To evaluate the effects of pragmatic home-based resistance exercise training on glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) as well as muscle strength and body composition in people with type 2 diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: People with type 2 diabetes were randomized (1:1) to usual care or usual care plus home-based resistance exercise for 32 weeks. The changes in HbA1c, body composition, physical function, quality of life, continuous glucose monitoring and liver fat were compared by randomized group using linear regression. RESULTS: This study recruited 120 participants (female: n = 46 [38%], age 60.2 (9.4) years, BMI 31.1 (5.4) kg.m-2 ), 64 to intervention and 56 to usual care. Intention to treat analysis revealed no effect on HbA1c (difference in difference: -0.4 mmol/mol, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -3.26, 2.47; p = 0.78) but the intervention increased the number of push-ups (3.6 push-ups, 95% CI: 0.8, 6.4), arm lean mass (116 g, 95% CI: 6, 227) and leg lean mass (438 g, 95% CI 65, 810) and decreased liver fat (-1.27%, 95% CI -2.17, -0.38), with no differences in other outcomes. Per-protocol analysis revealed similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Home-based resistance exercise is unlikely to lower HbA1c in people with type 2 diabetes but may be of benefit for maintaining muscle mass and function and reducing liver fat.

Dose-response relationship between device-measured physical activity and incident type 2 diabetes: findings from the UK Biobank prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Most studies investigating the association between physical activity (PA) and the risk of type 2 diabetes are derived from self-reported questionnaires, with limited evidence using device-based measurements. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the dose-response relationship between device-measured PA and incident type 2 diabetes. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 40,431 participants of the UK Biobank. Wrist-worn accelerometers were used to estimate total, light, moderate, vigorous and moderate-to-vigorous PA. The associations between PA and incident type 2 diabetes were analysed using Cox-proportional hazard models. The mediating role of body mass index (BMI) was tested under a causal counterfactual framework. RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 6.3 years (IQR: 5.7-6.8), with 591 participants developing type 2 diabetes. Compared to those achieving < 150 min/week of moderate PA, people achieving 150-300, 300-600 and > 600 min/week were at 49% (95% CI 62-32%), 62% (95% CI 71-50%) and 71% (95% CI 80-59%) lower risk of type 2 diabetes, respectively. For vigorous PA, compared to those achieving < 25 min/week, individuals achieving 25-50, 50-75 and > 75 min/week were at 38% (95% CI 48-33%), 48% (95% CI 64-23%) and 64% (95% CI 78-42%) lower type 2 diabetes risk, respectively. Twelve per cent and 20% of the associations between vigorous and moderate PA and type 2 diabetes were mediated by lower BMI, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: PA has clear dose-response relationship with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes. Our findings support the current aerobic PA recommendations but suggest that additional PA beyond the recommendations is associated with even greater risk reduction. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The UK Biobank study was approved by the North West Multi-Centre Research Ethics Committee (Ref 11/NW/0382 on June 17, 2011).