Social mobility in the Tang Dynasty as the Imperial Examination rose and aristocratic family pedigree declined, 618-907 CE.

Data from the distant past are fertile ground for testing social science theories of education and social mobility. In this study, we construct a dataset from 3,640 tomb epitaphs of males in China's Tang Dynasty (618-907 CE), which contain granular and extensive information about the ancestral origins, family background, and career histories of the deceased elites. Our statistical analysis of the complete profiles yields evidence of the transition away from an aristocratic society in three key trends: 1) family pedigree (i.e., aristocracy) mattered less for career achievement over time, 2) passing the Imperial Examination (Keju) became an increasingly important predictor of one's career achievement, and 3) father's position always mattered throughout the Tang, especially for men who did not pass the Keju. The twilight of medieval Chinese aristocracy, according to the data, began in as early as the mid-seventh century CE.

Hazard Versus Linear Probability Difference-in-Differences Estimators for Demographic Processes.

This study examines the properties of the linear probability difference-in-differences estimator when the data are in fact generated by a single-decrement, continuous-time hazard process. We focus on the textbook case of two groups and two periods in which the control and treatment groups are observed before and after treatment. We provide formal derivations and illustrate matters concretely by reexamining economic studies that have relied on the linear probability difference-in-differences estimator when attempting to obtain estimates of the causal effect of unilateral and no-fault divorce. In particular, we show that the increasing then decreasing pattern of effects found by Wolfers (2006) can be generated by a time-invariant effect of treatment in a proportional hazard setting. We conclude that often implicit assumptions about how the data are generated are an important and necessary component of causal identification.

Does perceived social mobility shape attitudes toward government and family educational investment?

Education is considered a key driver of intergenerational social mobility in the United States. However, the past several decades have witnessed a dramatic increase in the costs of college attendance, which puts political pressure on what the roles of government and families in education financing ought to be. In this study, we examine how individuals' perception of society's intergenerational mobility affects their willingness to financially support children in college, as well as their opinion on whether the government should take a smaller or bigger role. Perceptions of mobility matter because they reflect individuals' estimated opportunity structure and thereby an important component of returns to education. Using data from a nationally representative online survey and a novel design to measure perceived mobility, we show that (1) individuals who believe to live in a more mobile society exhibit more aversion toward government spending and a preference for students relying on family support; (2) these associations are stronger among higher-SES groups; and (3) information treatments randomly assigning objective social mobility facts make individuals who overestimate the level of social mobility even more eager to contribute to tuition costs. These findings suggest that learning about factual levels of mobility reinforces existing beliefs and possibly their consequences for educational investment.

Americans overestimate the intergenerational persistence in income ranks.

Recent research suggests that intergenerational income mobility has remained low and stable in America, but popular discourse routinely assumes that Americans are optimistic about mobility prospects in society. Examining these 2 seemingly contradictory observations requires a careful measurement of the public's perceptions of mobility. Unlike most previous work that measures perceptions about mobility outcomes for the overall population or certain subgroups, we propose a survey instrument that emphasizes the variation in perceived mobility prospects for hypothetical children across parent income ranks. Based on this survey instrument, we derive the perceived relationship between the income ranks of parents and children, which can then be compared against the actual rank-rank relationship reported by empirical work based on tax data. We fielded this instrument in a general population survey experiment (n = 3,077). Our results suggest that Americans overestimate the intergenerational persistence in income ranks. They overestimate economic prospects for children from rich families and underestimate economic prospects for those from poor families.

Who Coresides With Parents? An Analysis Based on Sibling Comparative Advantage.

Coresidence between elderly parents and their married adult children is common in East Asian societies. We analyze theoretically and empirically with which adult child parents coreside when the extended family has multiple adult children, and we show that this decision-making process can be rationalized. Specifically, we find evidence that suggests division of labor among family members through the choice of coresidence. Theoretically, we show that when parents can help children with housework, they will coreside with higher-educated children whose opportunity cost of housework is higher. On the other hand, when parents need help from children in housework labor, they will coreside with lower-educated children, whose opportunity cost of housework is lower. By adopting a data set containing information on parents and their married adult children, we find that our two hypotheses are supported among families from rural China. The probability of coresidence is positively associated with relative education of the children when parents can provide help but negatively associated with education when parents need help.