The analysis of nitrogen load and simulation uncertainty using SWAT in a catchment with paddy field in China.

Excessive load of nitrogen from anthropogenic sources is a threat to sustaining a healthy aquatic ecosystem. The difficulty in identifying the critical source areas (CSAs) of nitrogen load and apportioning the in-stream nitrogen to individual sources spatially and seasonally has made the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) useful for analyzing nitrogen load at the catchment scale. However, the uncertainty of the nitrogen load simulated by SWAT has rarely been analyzed. The two simulations with the highest or the lowest PBIAS of total nitrogen (TN) load were proposed in this study to represent the range of the prediction uncertainty and therefore were used to generate the uncertainty of CSAs and nitrogen source apportionment. The model was set up for the Yuan River Catchment, which is under threat of extensive nitrogen load. Results indicated the highest nitrogen load was from downstream paddy fields with a denser population and 85% of the load was from fertilizer and feedlots. The relatively high prediction uncertainty was observed on both CSAs and source apportionment, which emphasizes the limitation of calibration only based on certain processes and the necessity to consider parameter uncertainty in the application of nitrogen load simulation.

Simulation of future groundwater recharge using a climate model ensemble and SAR-image based soil parameter distributions - A case study in an intensively-used Mediterranean catchment.

We used observed climate data, an ensemble of four GCM-RCM combinations (global and regional climate models) and the water balance model mGROWA to estimate present and future groundwater recharge for the intensively-used Thau lagoon catchment in southern France. In addition to a highly resolved soil map, soil moisture distributions obtained from SAR-images (Synthetic Aperture Radar) were used to derive the spatial distribution of soil parameters covering the full simulation domain. Doing so helped us to assess the impact of different soil parameter sources on the modelled groundwater recharge levels. Groundwater recharge was simulated in monthly time steps using the ensemble approach and analysed in its spatial and temporal variability. The soil parameters originating from both sources led to very similar groundwater recharge rates, proving that soil parameters derived from SAR images may replace traditionally used soil maps in regions where soil maps are sparse or missing. Additionally, we showed that the variance in different GCM-RCMs influences the projected magnitude of future groundwater recharge change significantly more than the variance in the soil parameter distributions derived from the two different sources. For the period between 1950 and 2100, climate change impacts based on the climate model ensemble indicated that overall groundwater recharge will possibly show a low to moderate decrease in the Thau catchment. However, as no clear trend resulted from the ensemble simulations, reliable recommendations for adapting the regional groundwater management to changed available groundwater volumes could not be derived.

Determination of nitrogen reduction levels necessary to reach groundwater quality targets in Slovenia.

Within a collaborative project between Slovenian Environment Agency (ARSO) and Research Center Jülich (FZJ), nitrogen reduction levels necessary to reach groundwater quality targets in Slovenia were assessed. For this purpose the hydrological model GROWA-DENUZ was coupled with agricultural N balances and applied consistently to the whole territory of Slovenia in a spatial resolution of 100×100m. GROWA was used to determine the water balance in Slovenia for the hydrologic period 1971-2000. Simultaneously, the displaceable N load in soil was assessed from agricultural Slovenian N surpluses for 2011 and the atmospheric N deposition. Subsequently, the DENUZ model was used to assess the nitrate degradation in soil and, in combination with the percolation water rates from the GROWA model, to determine nitrate concentration in the leachate. The areas showing predicted nitrate concentrations in the leachate above the EU groundwater quality standard of 50mg NO3(-)/L have been identified as priority areas for implementing nitrogen reduction measures. For these "hot spot" areas DENUZ was used in a backward mode to quantify the maximal permissible nitrogen surplus levels in agriculture to guarantee a nitrate concentration in percolation water below 50mg NO3(-)/L. Model results indicate that additional N reduction measures should be implemented in priority areas rather than area-covering. Research work will directly support the implementation of the European Union Water Framework Directive in Slovenia, e.g., by using the maximal permissible nitrogen surplus levels as a framework for the derivation of regionally adapted and hence effective nitrogen reduction measures.

Forecasting the effects of EU policy measures on the nitrate pollution of groundwater and surface waters.

We used the interdisciplinary model network AGRUM [corrected] to predict the actual mean nitrate concentration in percolation water at the scale of the Weser river basin (Germany) using an area differentiated (100 m x 100 m) approach. AGRUM [corrected] combines the agro-economic model RAUMIS for estimating nitrogen surpluses and the hydrological models GROWA/DENUZ for assessing the nitrate leaching from the soil. For areas showing predicted nitrate concentrations in percolation water above the European Union (EU) groundwater quality standard of 50 mg NO3-N/L, effective agri-environmental reduction measures need to be derived and implemented to improve groundwater and surface water quality by 2015. The effects of already implemented agricultural policy are quantified by a baseline scenario projecting the N-surpluses from agricultural sector to 2015. The AGRUM [corrected] model is used to estimate the effects of this scenario concerning groundwater and surface water pollution by nitrate. From the results of the model analysis the needs for additional measures can be derived in terms of required additional N-surplus reduction and in terms of regional prioritization of measures. Research work will therefore directly support the implementation of the Water Framework Directive of the European Union in the Weser basin.

Assessing necessary nutrient reduction for measurement planning in groundwater bodies.

For the Federal State of Lower Saxony, Germany, nitrogen management options are developed and implemented in three pilot areas using new participation approaches and technologies suitable for programs of measures to reduce diffuse pollution from agriculture. As a target value for water protection measures a nitrate concentration in percolation water of 50 mg/l as an average for a larger area defined by the groundwater bodies and their hydrogeological subdivisions has been defined. An integrative emission model is used to simulate the interactions between agricultural practice, nitrogen surpluses and the nitrogen flow through the soil and aquifer to the outflow into surface waters. The actual nitrate concentrations in percolation water are calculated for the entire Federal State of Lower Saxony considering site-characteristics, N-surpluses, water balance and denitrification in the soil. The tolerable N-surpluses needed to meet the environmental target are quantified as averages for each of the hydrogeological subdivisions by "backward" calculation using this model system. The required reduction of N-surpluses was estimated by comparing the tolerable N-surpluses with the actual state of nitrogen emission. For the evaluation of the amount and efficiency of water protection measures, the required reduction of N-surpluses to accomplish the environmental target is quantified, using the current status as a reference.