Longitudinal hierarchical Bayesian models of covariate effects on airway and alveolar nitric oxide.

Biomarkers such as exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO), a marker of airway inflammation, have applications in the study of chronic respiratory disease where longitudinal studies of within-participant changes in the biomarker are particularly relevant. A cutting-edge approach to assessing FeNO, called multiple flow FeNO, repeatedly assesses FeNO across a range of expiratory flow rates at a single visit and combines these data with a deterministic model of lower respiratory tract NO to estimate parameters quantifying airway wall and alveolar NO sources. Previous methodological work for multiple flow FeNO has focused on methods for data from a single participant or from cross-sectional studies. Performance of existing ad hoc two-stage methods for longitudinal multiple flow FeNO in cohort or panel studies has not been evaluated. In this paper, we present a novel longitudinal extension to a unified hierarchical Bayesian (L_U_HB) model relating longitudinally assessed multiple flow FeNO to covariates. In several simulation study scenarios, we compare the L_U_HB method to other unified and two-stage frequentist methods. In general, L_U_HB produced unbiased estimates, had good power, and its performance was not sensitive to the magnitude of the association with a covariate and correlations between NO parameters. In an application relating height to longitudinal multiple flow FeNO in schoolchildren without asthma, unified analysis methods estimated positive, statistically significant associations of height with airway and alveolar NO concentrations and negative associations with airway wall diffusivity while estimates from two-stage methods were smaller in magnitude and sometimes non-significant.

Hierarchical Bayesian estimation of covariate effects on airway and alveolar nitric oxide.

Exhaled breath biomarkers are an important emerging field. The fractional concentration of exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) is a marker of airway inflammation with clinical and epidemiological applications (e.g., air pollution health effects studies). Systems of differential equations describe FeNO-measured non-invasively at the mouth-as a function of exhalation flow rate and parameters representing airway and alveolar sources of NO in the airway. Traditionally, NO parameters have been estimated separately for each study participant (Stage I) and then related to covariates (Stage II). Statistical properties of these two-step approaches have not been investigated. In simulation studies, we evaluated finite sample properties of existing two-step methods as well as a novel Unified Hierarchical Bayesian (U-HB) model. The U-HB is a one-step estimation method developed with the goal of properly propagating uncertainty as well as increasing power and reducing type I error for estimating associations of covariates with NO parameters. We demonstrated the U-HB method in an analysis of data from the southern California Children's Health Study relating traffic-related air pollution exposure to airway and alveolar airway inflammation.

Impact of different fixed flow sampling protocols on flow-independent exhaled nitric oxide parameter estimates using the Bayesian dynamic two-compartment model.

Exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) is an established respiratory biomarker with clinical applications in the diagnosis and management of asthma. Because FeNO depends strongly on the flow (exhalation) rate, early protocols specified that measurements should be taken when subjects exhaled at a fixed rate of 50 ml/s. Subsequently, multiple flow (or "extended") protocols were introduced which measure FeNO across a range of fixed flow rates, allowing estimation of parameters including Caw NO and CA NO which partition the physiological sources of NO into proximal airway wall tissue and distal alveolar regions (respectively). A recently developed dynamic model of FeNO uses flow-concentration data from the entire exhalation maneuver rather than plateau means, permitting estimation of Caw NO and CA NO from a wide variety of protocols. In this paper, we use a simulation study to compare Caw NO and CA NO estimation from a variety of fixed flow protocols, including: single maneuvers (30, 50,100, or 300 ml/s) and three established multiple maneuver protocols. We quantify the improved precision with multiple maneuvers and the importance of low flow maneuvers in estimating Caw NO. We conclude by applying the dynamic model to FeNO data from 100 participants of the Southern California Children's Health Study, establishing the feasibility of using the dynamic method to reanalyze archived online FeNO data and extract new information on Caw NO and CA NO in situations where these estimates would have been impossible to obtain using traditional steady-state two compartment model estimation methods.