Five state factors control progressive stages of freshwater salinization syndrome.

Factors driving freshwater salinization syndrome (FSS) influence the severity of impacts and chances for recovery. We hypothesize that spread of FSS across ecosystems is a function of interactions among five state factors: human activities, geology, flowpaths, climate, and time. (1) Human activities drive pulsed or chronic inputs of salt ions and mobilization of chemical contaminants. (2) Geology drives rates of erosion, weathering, ion exchange, and acidification-alkalinization. (3) Flowpaths drive salinization and contaminant mobilization along hydrologic cycles. (4) Climate drives rising water temperatures, salt stress, and evaporative concentration of ions and saltwater intrusion. (5) Time influences consequences, thresholds, and potentials for ecosystem recovery. We hypothesize that state factors advance FSS in distinct stages, which eventually contribute to failures in systems-level functions (supporting drinking water, crops, biodiversity, infrastructure, etc.). We present future research directions for protecting freshwaters at risk based on five state factors and stages from diagnosis to prognosis to cure.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for predicted soil test phosphorus using the Annual Phosphorus Loss Estimator model.

In this study we conducted a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model focusing on model predictions of soil test phosphorus (STP). We calculated and evaluated the sensitivity coefficients of predicted STP and changes in STP using 1- and 10-yr simulations with and without P application. We also compared two methods for estimating prediction uncertainties: first-order variance approximation (FOVA) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Finally, we compared uncertainties in APLE-predicted STP with uncertainties in measured STP collected from multiple sites in Maryland under different manuring and cropping treatments. Results from our sensitivity analysis showed that predicted STP and changes in STP for 1-yr simulations without P inputs were most sensitive to initial STP, whereas model STP predictions were most sensitive to manure and fertilizer application rates when sensitivity analyses included P inputs. For the 10-yr simulations without P application inputs, the range in sensitivity coefficients for crop uptake and precipitation were much greater than for the 1-yr simulations. Prediction uncertainties from FOVA were comparable to those from MCS for model input uncertainties up to 50%. Using FOVA to calculate APLE STP prediction uncertainties using the Maryland data set, the mean measured STP for nearly all site years fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the STP prediction uncertainties. Our results provide users of APLE insight into what model inputs require the most careful measurement when using the model to predict changes in STP under conditions of P drawdown (i.e., no P application) or P buildup.

Regenerative stormwater conveyance (RSC) for reducing nutrients in urban stormwater runoff depends upon carbon quantity and quality.

Regenerative stormwater conveyance (RSC), a relatively new stormwater management approach, is extensively implemented throughout the mid-Atlantic for nutrient control, but little is known of its pollutant reduction capabilities and controlling factors. This study examined effects of organic carbon (C) quantity and quality on stream water quality and nutrient retention at two RSCs near Annapolis, Maryland, USA by comparing longitudinal changes in water quality at paired restored and unrestored stream reaches, and conducting lab experiments simulating RSC processes. Results showed that RSCs consistently had lower dissolved oxygen saturation (DO%) and pH relative to nearby unrestored streams, probably due to release of labile dissolved organic carbon (DOC). At one RSC, with high nitrate (NO3-) inputs, retention of N (16-37%) and release of DOC (18-54%) were observed with the highest retention of N during summer, and the rates of N retention and DOC release were larger than that of the adjacent unrestored tributary (N: 5-8%, DOC: <18%). At another RSC site with lower NO3- concentrations, N retention and DOC release were not apparent. Mesocosm experiments showed that NO3- retention varies with organic C quantity and quality depending on incubating temperature; retention of total N did not increase with organic C due to release of other N species (e.g., organic N). Lab mesocosms showed an increase in the release of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) with increasing organic C quantity and quality. However, field measurements did not show any evidence of SRP release at RSCs. The changes in SRP concentrations in streams seemed to be a function of iron levels and leaf litter inputs, but control factors for SRP warrant further investigation. This study suggests that RSC as a restoration approach may be effective for reducing N depending upon C quantity and quality as well as water temperature and N levels.