The demographic impact and development benefits of meeting demand for family planning with modern contraceptive methods.

BACKGROUND: Meeting demand for family planning can facilitate progress towards all major themes of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): people, planet, prosperity, peace, and partnership. Many policymakers have embraced a benchmark goal that at least 75% of the demand for family planning in all countries be satisfied with modern contraceptive methods by the year 2030. OBJECTIVE: This study examines the demographic impact (and development implications) of achieving the 75% benchmark in 13 developing countries that are expected to be the furthest from achieving that benchmark. METHODS: Estimation of the demographic impact of achieving the 75% benchmark requires three steps in each country: 1) translate contraceptive prevalence assumptions (with and without intervention) into future fertility levels based on biometric models, 2) incorporate each pair of fertility assumptions into separate population projections, and 3) compare the demographic differences between the two population projections. Data are drawn from the United Nations, the US Census Bureau, and Demographic and Health Surveys. RESULTS: The demographic impact of meeting the 75% benchmark is examined via projected differences in fertility rates (average expected births per woman's reproductive lifetime), total population, growth rates, age structure, and youth dependency. On average, meeting the benchmark would imply a 16 percentage point increase in modern contraceptive prevalence by 2030 and a 20% decline in youth dependency, which portends a potential demographic dividend to spur economic growth. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in meeting the demand for family planning with modern contraceptive methods can bring substantial benefits to developing countries. To our knowledge, this is the first study to show formally how such improvements can alter population size and age structure. Declines in youth dependency portend a demographic dividend, an added bonus to the already well-known benefits of meeting existing demands for family planning.

Demography of aging in China and the United States and the economic well-being of their older populations.

Today China has the world's largest older population, defined as aged 65 and over. The size of the older population in the United States is also large, ranking third in the world in 2000. The combined older populations of China and the United States represented 29 percent of the world's population 65 and older in 2000. The large older populations in these two countries are projected to more than double in size over the next three decades. Although currently China is younger than the United States and many other countries, its aging process will accelerate in the next few decades, with a speed surpassing the experience of many Western European countries and the United States. This paper examines the current and future situation of the older population in China and compares China's aging with that of the United States, using 2000 and earlier censuses from both countries as well as the population projections data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Growth of the older population, changes in the age distribution in China with comparisons to the United States, and the projections of the older population's future growth are analyzed and presented. The paper also discusses sources of financial support and living arrangements in China and the United States. Finally, the paper assesses trends in the older population support ratio and the implications for the economic well-being of an aging population.