Cardiovascular disease and the risk of incident falls and mortality among adults aged ≥ 65 years presenting to the emergency department: a cohort study from national registry data in Denmark.

BACKGROUND: Falls cause 58% of injury-related Emergency Department (ED) attendances. Previous research has highlighted the potential role of cardiovascular risk factors for falls. This study investigated the impact of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk on three-year incident falls, with presentation to the ED, and mortality. METHODS: A matched cohort study design was employed using national registry data from 82,292 adults (33% male) aged ≥ 65 years living in Denmark who attended the ED in 2013. We compared age and gender matched ED attendees presenting with a fall versus another reason. The cohort was followed for three-year incident falls, with presentation to the ED, and mortality. The impact of falls-related CVDs was also examined. RESULTS: Three-year incident falls was twofold higher among age and gender matched ED attendees aged ≥ 65 years presenting with a fall versus another reason at baseline. A presentation of falls with hip fracture had the highest percentage of incident falls in the 65-74 age group (22%) and the highest percentage mortality in all age groups (27-62%). CVD was not a significant factor in presenting with a fall at the ED, nor did it contribute significantly to the prediction of three-year incident falls. CVD was strongly associated with mortality risk among the ED fall group (RR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.67-1.97) and showed interactions with both age and fall history. CONCLUSION: In this large study of adults aged ≥ 65 years attending the ED utilising data from national administrative registers in Denmark, we confirm that older adults attending the ED with a fall, including those with hip fracture, were at greatest risk for future falls. While CVD did not predict incident falls, it increased the risk of mortality in the three-year follow up with advancing age. This may be informative for the provision of care pathways for older adults attending the ED due to a fall.

Incidence and Determinants of Spontaneous Normalization of Subclinical Hypothyroidism in Older Adults.

CONTEXT: With age, the prevalence of subclinical hypothyroidism rises. However, incidence and determinants of spontaneous normalization remain largely unknown. OBJECTIVE: To investigate incidence and determinants of spontaneous normalization of TSH levels in older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism. DESIGN: Pooled data were used from the (1) pretrial population and (2) in-trial placebo group from 2 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials (Thyroid Hormone Replacement for Untreated Older Adults With Subclinical Hypothyroidism Trial and Institute for Evidence-Based Medicine in Old Age thyroid 80-plus thyroid trial). SETTING: Community-dwelling 65+ adults with subclinical hypothyroidism from the Netherlands, Switzerland, Ireland, and the United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: The pretrial population (N = 2335) consisted of older adults with biochemical subclinical hypothyroidism, defined as ≥1 elevated TSH measurement (≥4.60 mIU/L) and a free T4 within the laboratory-specific reference range. Individuals with persistent subclinical hypothyroidism, defined as ≥2 elevated TSH measurements ≥3 months apart, were randomized to levothyroxine/placebo, of which the in-trial placebo group (N = 361) was included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of spontaneous normalization of TSH levels and associations between participant characteristics and normalization. RESULTS: In the pretrial phase, TSH levels normalized in 60.8% of participants in a median follow-up of 1 year. In the in-trial phase, levels normalized in 39.9% of participants after 1 year of follow-up. Younger age, female sex, lower initial TSH level, higher initial free T4 level, absence of thyroid peroxidase antibodies, and a follow-up measurement in summer were independent determinants for normalization. CONCLUSION: Because TSH levels spontaneously normalized in a large proportion of older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism (also after confirmation by repeat measurement), a third measurement may be recommended before considering treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01660126 and Netherlands Trial Register, NTR3851.

The optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function defined by the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality: systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Reference intervals of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) are statistically defined by the 2·5-97·5th percentiles, without accounting for potential risk of clinical outcomes. We aimed to define the optimal healthy ranges of TSH and FT4 based on the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. METHODS: This systematic review and individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis identified eligible prospective cohorts through the Thyroid Studies Collaboration, supplemented with a systematic search via Embase, MEDLINE (Ovid), Web of science, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Google Scholar from Jan 1, 2011, to Feb 12, 2017 with an updated search to Oct 13, 2022 (cohorts found in the second search were not included in the IPD). We included cohorts that collected TSH or FT4, and cardiovascular outcomes or mortality for adults (aged ≥18 years). We excluded cohorts that included solely pregnant women, individuals with overt thyroid diseases, and individuals with cardiovascular disease. We contacted the study investigators of eligible cohorts to provide IPD on demographics, TSH, FT4, thyroid peroxidase antibodies, history of cardiovascular disease and risk factors, medication use, cardiovascular disease events, cardiovascular disease mortality, and all-cause mortality. The primary outcome was a composite outcome including cardiovascular disease events (coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure) and all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were the separate assessment of cardiovascular disease events, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular disease mortality. We performed one-step (cohort-stratified Cox models) and two-step (random-effects models) meta-analyses adjusting for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol. The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42017057576. FINDINGS: We identified 3935 studies, of which 53 cohorts fulfilled the inclusion criteria and 26 cohorts agreed to participate. We included IPD on 134 346 participants with a median age of 59 years (range 18-106) at baseline. There was a J-shaped association of FT4 with the composite outcome and secondary outcomes, with the 20th (median 13·5 pmol/L [IQR 11·2-13·9]) to 40th percentiles (median 14·8 pmol/L [12·3-15·0]) conveying the lowest risk. Compared with the 20-40th percentiles, the age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for FT4 in the 80-100th percentiles was 1·20 (95% CI 1·11-1·31) for the composite outcome, 1·34 (1·20-1·49) for all-cause mortality, 1·57 (1·31-1·89) for cardiovascular disease mortality, and 1·22 (1·11-1·33) for cardiovascular disease events. In individuals aged 70 years and older, the 10-year absolute risk of composite outcome increased over 5% for women with FT4 greater than the 85th percentile (median 17·6 pmol/L [IQR 15·0-18·3]), and men with FT4 greater than the 75th percentile (16·7 pmol/L [14·0-17·4]). Non-linear associations were identified for TSH, with the 60th (median 1·90 mIU/L [IQR 1·68-2·25]) to 80th percentiles (2·90 mIU/L [2·41-3·32]) associated with the lowest risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. Compared with the 60-80th percentiles, the age-adjusted and sex-adjusted HR of TSH in the 0-20th percentiles was 1·07 (95% CI 1·02-1·12) for the composite outcome, 1·09 (1·05-1·14) for all-cause mortality, and 1·07 (0·99-1·16) for cardiovascular disease mortality. INTERPRETATION: There was a J-shaped association of FT4 with cardiovascular disease and mortality. Low concentrations of TSH were associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality. The 20-40th percentiles of FT4 and the 60-80th percentiles of TSH could represent the optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function based on the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality, with more than 5% increase of 10-year composite risk identified for FT4 greater than the 85th percentile in women and men older than 70 years. We propose a feasible approach to establish the optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function, allowing for better identification of individuals with a higher risk of thyroid-related outcomes. FUNDING: None.

Machine learning models of healthcare expenditures predicting mortality: A cohort study of spousal bereaved Danish individuals.

BACKGROUND: The ability to accurately predict survival in older adults is crucial as it guides clinical decision making. The added value of using health care usage for predicting mortality remains unexplored. The aim of this study was to investigate if temporal patterns of healthcare expenditures, can improve the predictive performance for mortality, in spousal bereaved older adults, next to other widely used sociodemographic variables. METHODS: This is a population-based cohort study of 48,944 Danish citizens 65 years of age and older suffering bereavement within 2013-2016. Individuals were followed from date of spousal loss until death from all causes or 31st of December 2016, whichever came first. Healthcare expenditures were available on weekly basis for each person during the follow-up and used as predictors for mortality risk in Extreme Gradient Boosting models. The extent to which medical spending trajectories improved mortality predictions compared to models with sociodemographics, was assessed with respect to discrimination (AUC), overall prediction error (Brier score), calibration, and clinical benefit (decision curve analysis). RESULTS: The AUC of age and sex for mortality the year after spousal loss was 70.8% [95% CI 68.8, 72.8]. The addition of sociodemographic variables led to an increase of AUC ranging from 0.9% to 3.1% but did not significantly reduce the overall prediction error. The AUC of the model combining the variables above plus medical spending usage was 80.8% [79.3, 82.4] also exhibiting smaller Brier score and better calibration. Overall, patterns of healthcare expenditures improved mortality predictions the most, also exhibiting the highest clinical benefit among the rest of the models. CONCLUSION: Temporal patterns of medical spending have the potential to significantly improve our assessment on who is at high risk of dying after suffering spousal loss. The proposed methodology can assist in a more efficient risk profiling and prognosis of bereaved individuals.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 hospitalisation or death: Danish nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Early ecological studies have suggested links between air pollution and risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but evidence from individual-level cohort studies is still sparse. We examined whether long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with risk of COVID-19 and who is most susceptible. METHODS: We followed 3 721 810 Danish residents aged ≥30 years on 1 March 2020 in the National COVID-19 Surveillance System until the date of first positive test (incidence), COVID-19 hospitalisation or death until 26 April 2021. We estimated residential annual mean particulate matter with diameter ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC) and ozone (O3) in 2019 by the Danish DEHM/UBM model, and used Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate the associations of air pollutants with COVID-19 outcomes, adjusting for age, sex, individual- and area-level socioeconomic status, and population density. RESULTS: 138 742 individuals were infected, 11 270 were hospitalised and 2557 died from COVID-19 during 14 months. We detected associations of PM2.5 (per 0.53 µg·m-3) and NO2 (per 3.59 µg·m-3) with COVID-19 incidence (hazard ratio (HR) 1.10 (95% CI 1.05-1.14) and HR 1.18 (95% CI 1.14-1.23), respectively), hospitalisations (HR 1.09 (95% CI 1.01-1.17) and HR 1.19 (95% CI 1.12-1.27), respectively) and death (HR 1.23 (95% CI 1.04-1.44) and HR 1.18 (95% CI 1.03-1.34), respectively), which were strongest in the lowest socioeconomic groups and among patients with chronic respiratory, cardiometabolic and neurodegenerative diseases. We found positive associations with BC and negative associations with O3. CONCLUSION: Long-term exposure to air pollution may contribute to increased risk of contracting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection as well as developing severe COVID-19 disease requiring hospitalisation or resulting in death.

Danish Pathology Life Course (PATHOLIFE) cohort: a register based cohort extending upon a national tissue biobank.

PURPOSE: The Danish Pathology Life Course (PATHOLIFE) cohort was established to facilitate epidemiological research relating histological and cytological features extracted from patient tissue specimens to the rich life course histories, including both prior and future register data, of the entire Danish population. Research results may increase quality of diagnosis, prognosis and stratification of patient subtypes, possibly identifying novel routes of treatment. PARTICIPANTS: All Danish residents from 1 January 1986 to 31 December 2019, totalling 8 593 421 individuals. FINDINGS TO DATE: We provide an overview of the subpopulation of Danish residents who have had a tissue specimen investigated within the Danish healthcare system, including both the primary sector and hospitals. We demonstrate heterogeneity in sociodemographic and prognostic factors between the general Danish population and the above mentioned subpopulation, and also between the general Danish population and subpopulations of patients with tissue specimens from selected anatomical sites. Results demonstrate the potential of the PATHOLIFE cohort for integrating many different factors into identification and selection of the most valuable tissue blocks for studies of specific diseases and their progression. Broadly, we find that living with a partner, having higher education and income associates with having a biopsy overall. However, this association varies across different tissue and patient types, which also display differences in time-to-death and causes of death. FUTURE PLANS: The PATHOLIFE cohort may be used to study specified patient groups and link health related events from several national health registries, and to sample patient groups, for which stored tissue specimens are available for further research investigations. The PATHOLIFE cohort thereby provides a unique opportunity to prospectively follow people that were characterised and sampled in the past.

Sex differences in health care expenditures and mortality after spousal bereavement: A register-based Danish cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Spousal bereavement is a life event that affects older people differently. We investigated the impact of spousal bereavement on medical expenditures and mortality in the general population, emphasizing on age and sex. METHODS: Data are from a population-based, retrospective cohort study following 924,958 Danish citizens over the age of 65 years, within 2011-2016. Changes in health care expenditures in those who suffer bereavement were compared with time matched changes among those who did not. Mortality hazards were analysed with time to event analysis. RESULTS: A total of 77,722 (~8.4%) individuals experienced bereavement, 65.8% being females. Among males, bereavement was associated with increase of expenditures the year after, that was 42 Euros per week (95% CI, 36 to 48) larger than the non-bereaved group. The corresponding increase for females was 35 Euros per week (95% CI, 30 to 40). The increase of mortality hazards was highest in the first year after bereavement, higher in males than females, in young old and almost absent in the oldest old. Compared with the reference, mortality the year after spousal loss was 70% higher (HR 1.70 [95% CI 1.40 to 2.08]) for males aged 65-69 years and remained elevated for a period of six years. Mortality for females aged 65-69 years was 27% higher in the first year (HR 1.27, [1.07 to 1.52]), normalizing thereafter. CONCLUSION: Bereavement affects older people differently with younger males being most frail with limited recovery potential.

The effect of thyroid hormone therapy on muscle function, strength and mass in older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism-an ancillary study within two randomized placebo controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: loss of skeletal muscle function, strength and mass is common in older adults, with important socioeconomic impacts. Subclinical hypothyroidism is common with increasing age and has been associated with reduced muscle strength. Yet, no randomized placebo-controlled trial (RCT) has investigated whether treatment of subclinical hypothyroidism affects muscle function and mass. METHODS: this is an ancillary study within two RCTs conducted among adults aged ≥65 years with persistent subclinical hypothyroidism (thyrotropin (TSH) 4.60-19.99 mIU/l, normal free thyroxine). Participants received daily levothyroxine with TSH-guided dose adjustment or placebo and mock titration. Primary outcome was gait speed at final visit (median 18 months). Secondary outcomes were handgrip strength at 1-year follow-up and yearly change in muscle mass. RESULTS: we included 267 participants from Switzerland and the Netherlands. Mean age was 77.5 years (range 65.1-97.1), 129 (48.3%) were women, and their mean baseline TSH was 6.36 mIU/l (standard deviation [SD] 1.9). At final visit, mean TSH was 3.8 mIU/l (SD 2.3) in the levothyroxine group and 5.1 mIU/l (SD 1.8, P < 0.05) in the placebo group. Compared to placebo, participants in the levothyroxine group had similar gait speed at final visit (adjusted between-group mean difference [MD] 0.01 m/s, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.06 to 0.09), similar handgrip strength at one year (MD -1.22 kg, 95% CI -2.60 to 0.15) and similar yearly change in muscle mass (MD -0.15 m2, 95% CI -0.49 to 0.18). CONCLUSIONS: in this ancillary analysis of two RCTs, treatment of subclinical hypothyroidism did not affect muscle function, strength and mass in individuals 65 years and older.

Long-term exposure to elemental components of fine particulate matter and all-natural and cause-specific mortality in a Danish nationwide administrative cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a well-recognized risk factor for premature death. However, evidence on which PM2.5 components are most relevant is unclear. METHODS: We evaluated the associations between mortality and long-term exposure to eight PM2.5 elemental components [copper (Cu), iron (Fe), zinc (Zn), sulfur (S), nickel (Ni), vanadium (V), silicon (Si), and potassium (K)]. Studied outcomes included death from diabetes, chronic kidney disease (CKD), dementia, and psychiatric disorders as well as all-natural causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory diseases (RD), and lung cancer. We followed all residents in Denmark (aged ≥30 years) from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017. We used European-wide land-use regression models at a 100 × 100 m scale to estimate the residential annual mean levels of exposure to PM2.5 components. The models were developed with supervised linear regression (SLR) and random forest (RF). The associations were evaluated by Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for individual- and area-level socioeconomic factors and total PM2.5 mass. RESULTS: Of 3,081,244 individuals, we observed 803,373 death from natural causes during follow-up. We found significant positive associations between all-natural mortality with Si and K from both exposure modeling approaches (hazard ratios; 95% confidence intervals per interquartile range increase): SLR-Si (1.04; 1.03-1.05), RF-Si (1.01; 1.00-1.02), SLR-K (1.03; 1.02-1.04), and RF-K (1.06; 1.05-1.07). Strong associations of K and Si were detected with most causes of mortality except CKD and K, and diabetes and Si (the strongest associations for psychiatric disorders mortality). In addition, Fe was relevant for mortality from RD, lung cancer, CKD, and psychiatric disorders; Zn with mortality from CKD, RD, and lung cancer, and; Ni and V with lung cancer mortality. CONCLUSIONS: We present novel results of the relevance of different PM2.5 components for different causes of death, with K and Si seeming to be most consistently associated with mortality in Denmark.

Predicting mortality and visualizing health care spending by predicted mortality in Danes over age 65.

Health care expenditure in the last year of life makes up a high proportion of medical spending across the world. This is often framed as waste, but this framing is only meaningful if it is known at the time of treatment who will go on to die. We analyze the distribution of health care spending by predicted mortality for the Danish population over age 65 over the year 2016, with one-year mortality predicted by a machine learning model based on sociodemographics and use of health care services for the two years before entry into follow-up. While a reasonably good model can be built, extremely few individuals have high ex-ante probability of dying, and those with a predicted mortality of more than 50% account for only 2.8% of total health care expenditure. Decedents outspent survivors by a factor of more than ten, but compared to survivors with similar predicted mortality they spent only 2.5 times as much. Our results suggest that while spending in the last year of life is indeed high, this is nearly all spent in situations where there is a reasonable expectation that the patient can survive.

Altered cardiovascular risk pattern of LDL cholesterol in older adults.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Elevated serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels at middle-age constitute a strong risk factor for later cardiovascular events. In older populations, however, LDL-C levels are no longer predictive of cardiovascular mortality or may even seem protective. Whether the altered risk pattern of LDL-C in old age reflects a causal mechanism or is due to confounding and bias is subject to debate. In this review, we briefly discuss the possible explanations for the altered risk pattern of LDL-C observed in old age. RECENT FINDINGS: Using examples from the recent literature we illustrate how LDL-C levels 'lose' their predictive value as a cardiovascular risk factor in old age. We review three potential explanations for the changed cardiovascular risk pattern of LDL-C in older populations: survivorship bias, reverse causation, and effect modification. SUMMARY: The absent or protective effect of LDL-C on cardiovascular mortality in older populations found in observational studies might be explained by survivorship bias, reverse causation, and effect modification. However, this does not necessarily preclude the possibility that (specific) cholesterol-lowering treatment could decrease the risk of morbidity and mortality. Placebo-controlled trials may importantly add to our understanding of who may benefit from lipid-lowering therapy or statins at an older age.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident diabetes: a systematic review and an individual participant data analysis of prospective cohort studies.

Objective: Few prospective studies have assessed whether individuals with subclinical thyroid dysfunction are more likely to develop diabetes, with conflicting results. In this study, we conducted a systematic review of the literature and an individual participant data analysis of multiple prospective cohorts to investigate the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident diabetes. Methods: We performed a systematic review of the literature in Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library from inception to February 11, 2022. A two-stage individual participant data analysis was conducted to compare participants with subclinical hypothyroidism and subclinical hyperthyroidism vs euthyroidism at baseline and the adjusted risk of developing diabetes at follow-up. Results: Among 61 178 adults from 18 studies, 49% were females, mean age was 58 years, and mean follow-up time was 8.2 years. At the last available follow-up, there was no association between subclinical hypothyroidism and incidence of diabetes (odds ratio (OR) = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.88-1.17, I2 = 0%) or subclinical hyperthyroidism and incidence of diabetes (OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.82-1.30, I2 = 0%), in age- and sex-adjusted analyses. Time-to-event analysis showed similar results (hazard ratio for subclinical hypothyroidism: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.87-1.11; hazard ratio for subclinical hyperthyroidism: 1.07, 95% CI: 0.88-1.29). The results were robust in all sub-group and sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: This is the largest systematic review and individual participant data analysis to date investigating the prospective association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and diabetes. We did not find an association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident diabetes. Our results do not support screening patients with subclinical thyroid dysfunction for diabetes. Significance statement: Evidence is conflicting regarding whether an association exists between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident diabetes. We therefore aimed to investigate whether individuals with subclinical thyroid dysfunction are more prone to develop diabetes in the long run as compared to euthyroid individuals. We included data from 18 international cohort studies with 61 178 adults and a mean follow-up time of 8.2 years. We did not find an association between subclinical hypothyroidism or subclinical hyperthyroidism at baseline and incident diabetes at follow-up. Our results have clinical implications as they neither support screening patients with subclinical thyroid dysfunction for diabetes nor treating them in the hope of preventing diabetes in the future.

Use of candles and risk of cardiovascular and respiratory events in a Danish cohort study.

Burning candles at home emit small particles and gases that pollute indoor air. Exposure to fine particles in outdoor air has been convincingly linked to cardiovascular and respiratory events, while the associations with fine and ultrafine particles from candle burning remain unexplored. We examined the association between the use of candles and incident cardiovascular and respiratory events. We collected data on 6757 participants of the Copenhagen Aging and Midlife Biobank cohort recruited in 2009 and followed them up for the first hospital contact for incident cardiovascular and respiratory events until 2018. We investigated an association between the self-reported frequency of candle use in wintertime and cardiovascular and respiratory events, using Cox regression models adjusting for potential confounders. During follow-up, 1462 and 834 were admitted for cardiovascular and respiratory events, respectively. We found null associations between candle use and a hospital contact due to cardiovascular and respiratory events, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of 0.97 (95% CI: 0.84, 1.11) and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.81, 1.18), respectively, among those using candles >4 times/week compared with <1 time/week. For cause-specific cardiovascular diseases, HRs were 1.10 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.43) for ischemic heart disease and 1.18 (95% CI: 0.77, 1.81) for myocardial infarction. For chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, HR was 1.26 (95% CI: 0.81, 1.97). We found no statistically significant associations between candle use and the risk of cardiovascular and respiratory events. Studies with improved exposure assessments are warranted.

Thyroid antibodies and levothyroxine effects in subclinical hypothyroidism: A pooled analysis of two randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Antithyroid antibodies increase the likelihood of developing overt hypothyroidism, but their clinical utility remains unclear. No large randomized controlled trial (RCT) has assessed whether older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism (SHypo) caused by autoimmune thyroid disease derive more benefits from levothyroxine treatment (LT4). OBJECTIVE: To determine whether older adults with SHypo and positive antibodies derive more clinical benefits from LT4 than those with negative antibodies. METHODS: We pooled individual participant data from two RCTs, Thyroid Hormone Replacement for Untreated Older Adults with Subclinical Hypothyroidism and IEMO 80+. Participants with persistent SHypo were randomly assigned to receive LT4 or placebo. We compared the effects of LT4 versus placebo in participants with and without anti-thyroid peroxidase (TPO) at baseline. The two primary outcomes were 1-year change in Hypothyroid Symptoms and Tiredness scores on the Thyroid-Related Quality-of-Life Patient-Reported Outcome Questionnaire. RESULTS: Among 660 participants (54% women) ≥65 years, 188 (28.5%) had positive anti-TPO. LT4 versus placebo on Hypothyroid Symptoms lead to an adjusted between-group difference of -2.07 (95% confidence interval: -6.04 to 1.90) for positive antibodies versus 0.89 (-1.76 to 3.54) for negative antibodies (p for interaction = 0.31). Similarly, there was no treatment effect modification by baseline antibody status for Tiredness scores-adjusted between-group difference 1.75 (-3.60 to 7.09) for positive antibodies versus 1.14 (-1.90 to 4.19) for negative antibodies (p for interaction = 0.98). Positive anti-TPO were not associated with better quality of life, improvement in handgrip strength, or fewer cardiovascular outcomes with levothyroxine treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults with SHypo, positive antithyroid antibodies are not associated with more benefits on clinical outcomes with LT4.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality in a Danish nationwide administrative cohort study: Beyond mortality from cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: The association between long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality from cardiorespiratory diseases is well established, yet the evidence for other diseases remains limited. OBJECTIVES: To examine the associations of long-term exposure to air pollution with mortality from diabetes, dementia, psychiatric disorders, chronic kidney disease (CKD), asthma, acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI), as well as mortality from all-natural and cardiorespiratory causes in the Danish nationwide administrative cohort. METHODS: We followed all residents aged ≥ 30 years (3,083,227) in Denmark from 1 January 2000 until 31 December 2017. Annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), and ozone (warm season) were estimated using European-wide hybrid land-use regression models (100 m × 100 m) and assigned to baseline residential addresses. We used Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate the association between air pollution and mortality, accounting for demographic and socioeconomic factors. We additionally applied indirect adjustment for smoking and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: During 47,023,454 person-years of follow-up, 803,881 people died from natural causes. Long-term exposure to PM2.5 (mean: 12.4 µg/m3), NO2 (20.3 µg/m3), and/or BC (1.0 × 10-5/m) was statistically significantly associated with all studied mortality outcomes except CKD. A 5 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with higher mortality from all-natural causes (hazard ratio 1.11; 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.13), cardiovascular disease (1.09; 1.07-1.12), respiratory disease (1.11; 1.07-1.15), lung cancer (1.19; 1.15-1.24), diabetes (1.10; 1.04-1.16), dementia (1.05; 1.00-1.10), psychiatric disorders (1.38; 1.27-1.50), asthma (1.13; 0.94-1.36), and ALRI (1.14; 1.09-1.20). Associations with long-term exposure to ozone (mean: 80.2 µg/m3) were generally negative but became significantly positive for several endpoints in two-pollutant models. Generally, associations were attenuated but remained significant after indirect adjustment for smoking and BMI. CONCLUSION: Long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO2, and/or BC in Denmark were associated with mortality beyond cardiorespiratory diseases, including diabetes, dementia, psychiatric disorders, asthma, and ALRI.

Bone geometry in older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism upon levothyroxine therapy: A nested study within a randomized placebo controlled trial.

The effect of levothyroxine (LT4) therapy for subclinical hypothyroidism (SHypo) on appendicular bone geometry and volumetric density has so far not been studied. In a nested study within the randomized, placebo-controlled Thyroid Hormone Replacement for Subclinical Hypothyroidism (TRUST) trial, we assessed the effect of LT4 therapy on bone geometry as measured by peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT). In the TRUST trial, community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 years with SHypo were randomized to LT4 with dose titration vs. placebo with mock titration. We analyzed data from participants enrolled at the TRUST site in Bern, Switzerland who had bone pQCT measured at baseline and at 1 to 2 years follow-up. The primary outcomes were the annual percentage changes of radius and tibia epi- and diaphysis bone geometry (total and cortical cross-sectional area (CSA) and cortical thickness), and of volumetric bone mineral density (bone mineral content (BMC) and total, trabecular and cortical volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD)). We performed linear regression of the annual percentage changes adjusted for sex, LT4 dose at randomization and muscle cross-sectional area. The 98 included participants had a mean age of 73.9 (±SD 5.4) years, 45.9% were women, and 12% had osteoporosis. They were randomized to placebo (n = 48) or LT4 (n = 50). Annual changes in BMC and vBMD were similar between placebo and LT4-treated groups, without significant difference in bone geometry or volumetric bone mineral density changes, neither at the diaphysis, nor at the epiphysis. For example, in the placebo group, epiphyseal BMC (radius) decreased by a mean 0.2% per year, with a similar decrease of 0.5% per year in the LT4 group (between-group difference in %ΔBMC 0.3, 95% CI -0.70 to 1.21, p = 0.91). Compared to placebo, LT4 therapy for an average 14 months had no significant effect on bone mass, bone geometry and volumetric density in older adults with subclinical hypothyroidism. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov numbers NCT01660126 (TRUST Thyroid trial) and NCT02491008 (Skeletal outcomes).

Dynamical indicators in time series of healthcare expenditures predict mortality risk of older adults following spousal bereavement.

BACKGROUND: The process of aging renders older people susceptible for adverse outcomes upon stress. Various indicators derived from complex systems theory have been proposed for quantifying resilience in living organisms, including humans. We investigated the ability of system-based indicators in capturing the dynamics of resilience in humans who suffer the adversity of spousal bereavement and tested their predictive power in mortality as a finite health transition. METHODS: Using longitudinal register data on weekly healthcare consumption of all Danish citizens over the age of 65 from January 1st, 2011, throughout December 31st, 2016, we performed statistical comparisons of the indicators 'average', 'slope', 'mean squared error', and 'lag-1 autocorrelation' one year before and after spousal bereavement, stratified for age and sex. The relation between levels of these indicators before bereavement and mortality hazards thereafter was determined by time to event analysis. We assessed the added value for mortality prediction via the time dependent area (AUC) under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: The study included 934,003 citizens of whom 51,890 experienced spousal bereavement and 2862 died in the first year thereafter. Healthcare consumption is increased, more volatile and accelerating with aging and in men compared to women (all p-values < 0.001). All dynamic indicators before bereavement were positively related with mortality hazards thereafter (all p-values < 0.001). The average discriminative performance for the 1-year mortality risk of the model with only age as a predictor (AUC: 68.9% and 70.2%) was significantly increased with the addition of dynamical indicators (78.5% and 82.4%) for males and females, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic indicators in time series of health care expenditures are strong predictors of mortality risk and could be part of predictive models for prognosis after life stressors, such as bereavement.

Incorporating Baseline Outcome Data in Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis of Non-randomized Studies.

Background: In non-randomized studies (NRSs) where a continuous outcome variable (e.g., depressive symptoms) is assessed at baseline and follow-up, it is common to observe imbalance of the baseline values between the treatment/exposure group and control group. This may bias the study and consequently a meta-analysis (MA) estimate. These estimates may differ across statistical methods used to deal with this issue. Analysis of individual participant data (IPD) allows standardization of methods across studies. We aimed to identify methods used in published IPD-MAs of NRSs for continuous outcomes, and to compare different methods to account for baseline values of outcome variables in IPD-MA of NRSs using two empirical examples from the Thyroid Studies Collaboration (TSC). Methods: For the first aim we systematically searched in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane from inception to February 2021 to identify published IPD-MAs of NRSs that adjusted for baseline outcome measures in the analysis of continuous outcomes. For the second aim, we applied analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), change score, propensity score and the naïve approach (ignores the baseline outcome data) in IPD-MA from NRSs on the association between subclinical hyperthyroidism and depressive symptoms and renal function. We estimated the study and meta-analytic mean difference (MD) and relative standard error (SE). We used both fixed- and random-effects MA. Results: Ten of 18 (56%) of the included studies used the change score method, seven (39%) studies used ANCOVA and one the propensity score (5%). The study estimates were similar across the methods in studies in which groups were balanced at baseline with regard to outcome variables but differed in studies with baseline imbalance. In our empirical examples, ANCOVA and change score showed study results on the same direction, not the propensity score. In our applications, ANCOVA provided more precise estimates, both at study and meta-analytical level, in comparison to other methods. Heterogeneity was higher when change score was used as outcome, moderate for ANCOVA and null with the propensity score. Conclusion: ANCOVA provided the most precise estimates at both study and meta-analytic level and thus seems preferable in the meta-analysis of IPD from non-randomized studies. For the studies that were well-balanced between groups, change score, and ANCOVA performed similarly.

Do changes in frailty, physical functioning, and cognitive functioning predict mortality in old age? Results from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam.

BACKGROUND: The ability to accurately predict survival in older adults is crucial as it guides clinical decision making. The added value of using various health indicators as well as changes in these indicators for predicting mortality remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate whether changes in health indicators such as frailty and physical performance improve mortality predictions in old age. METHODS: This is a population based prospective cohort study on 995 community-dwelling people aged 68-92 years from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam. Two measurements at a three-year interval (1995/1996 and 1998/1999) were available for the frailty index, frailty phenotype, grip strength, walking speed, and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Cox regression was used to analyze mortality risks associated with the current health status and changes in health, with mortality data up to 2017. The extent to which these health indicators improved mortality predictions compared to models with age and sex only was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: The AUC of age and sex for five-year mortality was 72.8% (95% CI 69.0 - 76.5) and was the lowest in the oldest old (age > 80.5 years). The added AUC of the current status of health indicators ranged from 0.7 to 3.3%. The added AUC of the three-year change was lower, ranging from -0.0 to 1.1%, whereas the added AUC of three-year change and current status combined was similar to current status alone, ranging from 0.6 to 3.2%. Across age, the added AUC of current status was highest in the oldest old, however there was no such pattern using three-year change. Overall, the frailty index appeared to improve mortality predictions the most, followed by the frailty phenotype, MMSE, grip strength, and walking speed. CONCLUSIONS: Current health status improved mortality predictions better than changes in health. Its contribution was highest in the oldest old, but the added value to models with age and sex only was limited.

No Effect of Levothyroxine on Hemoglobin in Older Adults With Subclinical Hypothyroidism: Pooled Results From 2 Randomized Controlled Trials.

CONTEXT: Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and anemia are common disorders, and both have increasing prevalence with advancing age. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess whether levothyroxine treatment leads to a rise in hemoglobin levels in older persons with subclinical hypothyroidism. METHODS: This preplanned combined analysis of 2 randomized controlled trials included community-dwelling persons aged 65 years and older with subclinical hypothyroidism who were randomly assigned to levothyroxine or placebo treatment. The levothyroxine dose was periodically titrated aiming at thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) level within the reference range, with mock titrations in the placebo group. The main outcome measure was the change in hemoglobin level after 12 months. RESULTS: Analyses included 669 participants (placebo n = 337, levothyroxine n = 332) with a median age of 75 years (range, 65-97) and mean baseline hemoglobin of 13.8 ±â€…1.3 g/dL. Although levothyroxine treatment resulted in a reduction in TSH from baseline after 12 months of follow-up compared with placebo, the change in hemoglobin level was not different between the levothyroxine and the placebo groups (-0.03 g/dL [95% CI, -0.16 to 0.11]). Similar results were found in stratified analyses including sex, age, or TSH levels. No difference in change of hemoglobin levels after 12 months was identified in 69 participants with anemia at baseline (-0.33 g/dL [95% CI, -0.87 to 0.21]). CONCLUSION: In persons aged 65 years and older with subclinical hypothyroidism, treatment with levothyroxine does not lead to a rise in hemoglobin levels, regardless of the presence of anemia.