Linking multiple aspects of thermal performance to explore the potential for thermal resource partitioning between a native and an invasive crayfish.

Ecologists require standardized, ecologically relevant information on the thermal ecology of aquatic ectotherms to address growing concerns related to changing climates, altered habitats, and introduced species. We measured multiple thermal endpoints to investigate potential for establishment of the invasive Ringed Crayfish (Faxonius neglectus) in thermally heterogeneous habitat of the narrowly distributed endemic Coldwater Crayfish (Faxonius eupunctus). For each species, we examined the relationships between thermal endpoints at the cellular and organismal levels. We then compared results between the two species to gain insight as to the generality of linkages between cellular and organismal-level endpoints, as well as the potential for thermal niche separation between the native and potential invader. At the cellular level, we found no differences in the temperature for maximum activity of electron transport system enzymes (ETSmax) between species. At the organismal level, F. neglectus preferred significantly warmer temperatures than F. eupunctus, but this difference was small (1.3 °C) and likely to have only limited biological significance. The critical thermal maximum (CTM) did not differ between species. For both species, the thermal performance curve for ETS enzyme activity served as a useful framework to link thermal endpoints and estimate the transition from optimal to stressful temperatures - organismal thermal preference and optimal temperature estimates consistently fell below ETSmax whereas CTM estimates fell above ETSmax. Taken together, the strong similarities in thermal endpoint patterns between the two species suggest habitats thermally suitable for the native F. eupunctus will also be thermally available to expanding populations of F. neglectus, thereby increasing the opportunity for negative interactions and population effects if F. neglectus invades one of the few remaining, uninvaded, critical habitats of F. eupunctus.

Climate change simulations predict altered biotic response in a thermally heterogeneous stream system.

Climate change is predicted to increase water temperatures in many lotic systems, but little is known about how changes in air temperature affect lotic systems heavily influenced by groundwater. Our objectives were to document spatial variation in temperature for spring-fed Ozark streams in Southern Missouri USA, create a spatially explicit model of mean daily water temperature, and use downscaled climate models to predict the number of days meeting suitable stream temperature for three aquatic species of concern to conservation and management. Longitudinal temperature transects and stationary temperature loggers were used in the Current and Jacks Fork Rivers during 2012 to determine spatial and temporal variability of water temperature. Groundwater spring influence affected river water temperatures in both winter and summer, but springs that contributed less than 5% of the main stem discharge did not affect river temperatures beyond a few hundred meters downstream. A multiple regression model using variables related to season, mean daily air temperature, and a spatial influence factor (metric to account for groundwater influence) was a strong predictor of mean daily water temperature (r2 = 0.98; RMSE = 0.82). Data from two downscaled climate simulations under the A2 emissions scenario were used to predict daily water temperatures for time steps of 1995, 2040, 2060, and 2080. By 2080, peak numbers of optimal growth temperature days for smallmouth bass are expected to shift to areas with more spring influence, largemouth bass are expected to experience more optimal growth days (21-317% increase) regardless of spring influence, and Ozark hellbenders may experience a reduction in the number of optimal growth days in areas with the highest spring influence. Our results provide a framework for assessing fine-scale (10 s m) thermal heterogeneity and predict shifts in thermal conditions at the watershed and reach scale.